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December 2012
Public Opinion of
Lebanese Christians
Content
2
1. Research Objectives
2. Methodology
3. Key Findings
Sample profile
Christians’ Fears & Concerns
Political Forces Assessment
Christians’ Expectations
Christians and Elections
Media Consumption Habits
4. Conclusions
Research Objectives
The main objective of this study was to better understand the opinion of the
Lebanese Christian voters regarding certain issues.
More specifically:
Identify their main concerns and fears.
Assess their perception towards political events, parties, and
people
Understand their aspirations for the future
Understand the importance of local and country issues
Understand what motivates / de-motivates them to vote or not
Identify their voting patterns
Methodology
2000 interviews were conducted Face to Face.
The survey was done in 13 voting Cazas having a majority of
Christians, and not in all the Cazas.
Cazas of execution are: Aley, Beirut one, Baabda, Batroun,
Chouf, Jbeil, Jezzine, Kesrwan, Koura, Metn, Zahle & Zgharta.
The sample was representative of the Christian voters of each
Caza as per the voting registration lists, including both residents
and non residents of the Caza.
The fieldwork was done between 16th October –3rd December
by the specialized interviewers of IPSOS.
Each team of interviewers was directed by a full-time supervisor
who was responsible for the interviewers on the field.
Age, Gender, Religion, Marital Status
Male 51%
Female 49%
Gender
5%
27%
32%
36%
18-20
21-34
35-49
50+
Age
69%
14%
9%
5%
1%
2%
Maronite
Greek Orthodox
Greek Catholic
Armenian Orthodox
Armenian Catholic
Other Christian / Minorities
Religious/sectarian affiliation
Single 34%
Married 62%
Widowed 3%
Divorced 1%
Marital Status
Political Activity
46%
18%
17%
12%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
Lebanese Forces
Tayyar (FPM)
Tashnag party
Kataeb
Marada
Communist party
PNSS
Ramgavar party
Hunchak party
Myself N = 262
M7a. Who in your family including yourself is active in a political party? M7b. In which political party are you/they active?
48%
20%
16%
14%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
Lebanese Forces
Tayyar (FPM)
Kataeb
Tashnag party
Marada
PNSS
National Liberal party
Communist party
Ramgavar party
Other Family Member (s) N = 234
84%
13%
12%
No one
Myself
Other family members
In the household N = 2000
The Lebanese Identity
N = 2000
Q1a. How do you feel towards holding the Lebanese identity?
74%
9%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
Proud
Belonging
Pessimistic
Neutral
Optimistic
Free
Ashamed
Lost
Significantly more among voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, & Baabda more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Beirut One more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Chouf more than the other regions
Feelings Toward Current Personal Situation
N = 2000
Q2. In general, how do you feel regarding your current personal situation?
53%
26%
13%
2%
6%
I am happy, but worried about
the future
I am unhappy and worried about the
future
I am happy and not worried about
the future
I am unhappy, but not worried about the future
I don't know how to feel / not sure
Feeling significantly stronger among female voters, and in Bcharre and Koura
Current Main Concerns
N = 2000
Q3. What are your main concerns these days?
41%
22%
15%
10%
5%
Security situation of the country/ weapons with
individuals/ army …
Economic situation (expensiveness, unemployment)
My health and that of my family
My personal safety and that of my family
My personal financial / work situation
First Mentioned Main Concern
83%
79%
47%
38%
35%
8%
4%
3%
Security situation of the country/ weapons with individuals/ army
weakness
Economic situation (expensiveness, unemployment)
My personal safety and that of my family
My personal financial / work situation
My health and that of my family
The events in Syria & the Arab countries
The political situation in Lebanon (elections, leaders, government,
inter-Christians conflict
Fear for the future (migration of youth, children's future, third age)
Main Concerns
Significantly more among women, and in Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn and Jezzine
Significantly more in Bcharre and Beirut 1
Lebanon’s Greatest Danger Today
N = 2000
Q5. In your opinion, what is Lebanon’s greatest danger today?
16%
16%
13%
11%
5%
5%
4%
4%
4%
4%
3%
War: civil/ Sunni-Chia/ ME/ with Israel
The declining economy
Hezbollah weapons
The lack of the state's control on the security situation
The increased sectarian conflicts
Inter-Christian divisions
Lebanon getting involved in the regional/Syrian crisis
The illegitimate arms in the streets
The corruption
The increased presence of Salafists in Lebanon
The displacement of the Christians
Significantly more among male voters of Bechare
Significantly more among young women and voters of Chouf & Beirut 1
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta & Baabda than the other regions
Significantly more among women
Dangers on Your Future
N = 2000
Q6. Please choose from the list the 3 statements that you consider dangerous on your future (circle in the column 1) and rank them from 1 to 3, where “1 = most dangerous” and “3 = least dangerous”, in terms of danger on your future (write in column 2)?
53%
49%
48%
45%
33%
29%
20%
10%
6%
6%
A declining economy
Weak Lebanese state
Weak, corrupt or inefficient politicians
Lebanese Christian divisions
Terrorist attacks in Lebanon
Hezbollah's weapons
Increasing influence of Salafis in Lebanon
Salafis or Ikhwan taking over in Syria
Bachar Al Assad staying in power
A civil war in Syria
1.89
2.02
1.78
2.03
2.00
2.35
2.12
2.08
2.17
1.94
Least dangerous 1 2 3 Most dangerous
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Chouf & Beirut 1
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn, Baabda & Beirut 1
Significantly more in Metn & Baabda
94%
94%
90%
89%
80%
79%
78%
75%
69%
64%
62%
61%
61%
55%
47%
42%
6%
6%
10%
11%
20%
21%
22%
25%
31%
36%
38%
39%
39%
45%
53%
58%
Interested in
Yes No
Christians in Lebanon
N = 2000
Q8a. I am going to read to you some statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you “agree” or “do not agree” with each of these statements? Q8b. I am going to read to you again the same statements regarding the Christians in Lebanon. Please tell me, as a Christian, if you are “interested” or “not interested” in each of these statements?
94%
52%
61%
66%
82%
39%
75%
62%
58%
56%
34%
19%
15%
47%
39%
17%
4%
34%
27%
26%
13%
51%
12%
18%
22%
33%
46%
76%
74%
30%
36%
57%
2%
13%
11%
8%
5%
10%
13%
19%
19%
11%
20%
5%
11%
23%
25%
26%
Land sales present a danger on Christians
Christians have a bright future in Lebanon
The Lebanese Christians lost their power in Lebanon
Christians are in danger in Lebanon
Lebanon should not interfere in what is happening in Syria
Lebanese Christians are better off today than in 2004
Christians should get closer to all communities
Lebanese Christians should call for the change of the Ta’ef agreement
Salafists are more dangerous than Hezbollah on Christians
Lebanese Christians should protect as much as possible Syrian Christians
Hezbollah is more dangerous than Salafists on Christians
Lebanese Christians should work to have a state of their own
Hezbollah should be allowed to set its own telecom network
Christians and Druze should unite to protect each other
Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites
Christians should get closer to Shiites than to Sunnites
Agree with…
Yes No I am not sure
Christians Existence in Lebanon
Q9a. As a Lebanese Christian, do you feel that your existence in Lebanon is being threatened? Q9b. Why YES? Q9c. Why NOT?
Yes 66%
No 34%
Christians Existence in Lebanon is Being Threatened?
N = 2000
38%
32%
20%
20%
15%
12%
12%
8%
8%
8%
7%
5%
4%
The immigration of Christians
The dramatic decrease in the Christian population in Lebanon
The continuous struggle among Christian political leaders
The increased power of Hezbollah in Lebanon
The increased power of Salafists in Lebanon
The absence of a prominent leader to defend the Christians
The presence of illegitimate armed forces
Salafists and Ikhwan taking over in the neighboring countries
The Muslim majority in the neighboring countries
The increasing growth of the Muslim population
The Ta'ef agreement diminished the role of Christians in Lebanon
All other sects are armed except the Christians
The poor security situation
Reasons why YES N = 1321
45%
37%
14%
7%
Christianity emerged from this region and no one can remove us
Christians are the core founders of Lebanon
They tried in 1975 and failed because we resisted and we can do it again
The alliance between the Shiite and Christians will protect us
Reasons why NOT N = 679
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn
Significantly more in Zgharta, Baabda & Aley
99%
98%
96%
70%
24%
10%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
3%
24%
36%
42%
30%
35%
39%
30%
1%
1%
1%
6%
19%
48%
65%
54%
57%
67%
1%
21%
1%
4%
9%
3%
2%
Independence
Freedom
Democracy
Resistance
Federalism
Sectarianism
Integrism (Oussoulia)
Wilayat el Fakih
Muslim Brotherhood
Integralism (Salafia)
I love it I don’t care It scares me Don’t know the meaning
Feelings Towards …
Q13. On a scale where 1 = “love it”, 2 = “I don’t care”, and 3” It scares me”, can you please tell me how you feel regarding the following terms.
N = 2000
LOV
E SC
AR
E
Government Performance
Q4. How would you evaluate the performance of the actual government, compared to the previous one’s performance? Would you say that the actual government’s performance is 1. Much better, 2. A little bit better, 3. Identical, 4. A little bit worse, 5. Much worse than the previous government’s performance? Q4a. In what is it better? Q4b. In what is it identical? Q4c. In what is it worse?
18%
41% 41%
Better (than previous) Identical Worse (than previous)
Government Performance N = 2000
44%
25%
21%
12%
11%
Good performance of different ministries
Worked towards the citizens concerns and
vital needs
Better security situation/ stronger army/ war
avoided
Less corruption
Independent decision, no more american control,
against international tribunal
How Better? N = 357
74%
42%
5%
4%
Still same situation/ Unsecured status
Same economical situation
Driven to external decision rather than to Lebanon
Corruption
How Identical? N = 819
44%
41%
40%
18%
15%
4%
Bad security situation
Incompetent team
Did not work towards the citizens concerns and vital
needs
Bad performance of different ministries
Corruption
Bad impact on Christians
How Worse? N = 824
Significantly more in Zgharta & Koura
Significantly more in Bcharre, Jbeil, Beirut 1 & Zahle
32%
26%
19%
14%
11%
6%
Inefficient
Working for the best interest of Christians
Struggling
Powerful
Following foreign and/or Arab countries' instructions
Followers to the alliance they belong to
Kataeb
Perception of Christian Political Parties
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
N = 2000
28%
22%
22%
21%
20%
14%
13%
Inefficient
Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they belong to
Working for the best interest of Christians
Powerful
Following foreign and/or Arab countries' instructions
Struggling
Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar
32%
24%
24%
17%
13%
12%
11%
Working for the best interest of Christians
Powerful
Inefficient
Struggling
Following foreign and/or Arab countries' instructions
Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in Lebanon
Followers to the alliance they belong to
Lebanese Forces
30%
16%
16%
13%
10%
9%
8%
Inefficient
Working for the best interest of Christians
Powerful
Following foreign and/or Arab countries' instructions
Followers to the alliance they belong to
Struggling
Destroying/ threatening Christians future existence in …
Marada
Perception of the Lebanese Forces
By Caza
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
N = 2000
Place of Voting
Zg
hart
a
Be
cha
re
Ko
ura
Ba
tro
un
Jb
eil
Ke
srw
an
Me
tn
Ba
ab
da
Ale
y
Ch
ou
f
Be
iru
t o
ne
Zah
le
Je
zzin
e
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94
Working for the best interest of
Christians 25% 77% 23% 31% 40% 35% 28% 37% 18% 25% 26% 29% 21%
Powerful 21% 65% 26% 36% 11% 15% 17% 9% 10% 27% 32% 40% 21%
Inefficient 19% 6% 12% 20% 49% 34% 30% 25% 22% 16% 22% 16% 30%
Struggling 10% 14% 8% 10% 31% 23% 19% 17% 5% 19% 14% 23% 15%
Following foreign and/or Arab
countries' instructions 24% 5% 6% 4% 27% 20% 16% 9% 1% 5% 14% 11% 12%
Destroying/ threatening the future
existence of Christians in
Lebanon
26% 2% 12% 6% 18% 17% 17% 10% 3% 5% 7% 8% 11%
Followers to the alliance they
belong to 18% 1% 6% 5% 17% 12% 17% 6% 3% 9% 10% 12% 10%
Perception of Kataeb
By Caza
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
N = 2000
Place of Voting
Zg
hart
a
Be
cha
re
Ko
ura
Ba
tro
un
Jb
eil
Ke
srw
an
Me
tn
Ba
ab
da
Ale
y
Ch
ou
f
Be
iru
t o
ne
Zah
le
Je
zzin
e
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94
Inefficient 26% 28% 27% 24% 60% 43% 35% 28% 21% 34% 23% 26% 38%
Working for the best
interest of Christians 23% 33% 16% 20% 32% 29% 28% 30% 18% 20% 24% 31% 23%
Struggling 35% 15% 14% 15% 28% 16% 17% 15% 6% 16% 13% 27% 20%
Powerful 7% 13% 10% 19% 4% 14% 14% 14% 12% 20% 21% 19% 16%
Following foreign and/or
Arab countries' instructions 17% 6% 3% 4% 31% 16% 13% 6% 1% 6% 14% 9% 9%
Followers to the alliance
they belong to 18% 1% 2% 2% 9% 6% 7% 3% 3% 4% 5% 6% 6%
Perception of Free Patriotic Movement / Tayyar
By Caza
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
N = 2000
Place of Voting
Zg
hart
a
Be
cha
re
Ko
ura
Ba
tro
un
Jb
eil
Ke
srw
an
Me
tn
Ba
ab
da
Ale
y
Ch
ou
f
Be
iru
t one
Zah
le
Je
zzin
e
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94
Inefficient 25% 20% 14% 23% 51% 26% 27% 19% 24% 26% 29% 40% 34%
Destroying/ threatening the
future existence of Christians
in Lebanon
9% 68% 17% 18% 28% 25% 20% 30% 1% 12% 13% 26% 14%
Followers to the alliance they
belong to 19% 57% 26% 22% 29% 20% 22% 10% 10% 11% 15% 27% 15%
Working for the best interest
of Christians 35% 1% 17% 14% 25% 31% 27% 17% 14% 20% 18% 17% 21%
Powerful 38% 5% 19% 21% 15% 19% 23% 16% 18% 17% 21% 17% 22%
Following foreign and/or Arab
countries' instructions 14% 18% 6% 4% 32% 19% 16% 7% 1% 8% 15% 18% 13%
Struggling 9% 6% 15% 11% 25% 15% 12% 12% 5% 9% 12% 22% 12%
Q12. In general, how would you perceive each of the following Christian political parties in Lebanon?
N = 2000
Place of Voting
Zg
hart
a
Be
cha
re
Ko
ura
Ba
tro
un
Jb
eil
Ke
srw
an
Me
tn
Ba
ab
da
Ale
y
Ch
ou
f
Be
iru
t one
Zah
le
Je
zzin
e
130 109 99 123 135 206 348 173 73 138 168 203 94
Inefficient 19% 45% 34% 37% 43% 30% 31% 24% 17% 29% 24% 31% 26%
Working for the best interest of
Christians 45% 11% 21% 12% 19% 18% 11% 12% 14% 16% 16% 16% 9%
Powerful 36% 11% 15% 17% 21% 15% 14% 11% 6% 14% 19% 9% 22%
Following foreign and/or Arab
countries' instructions 15% 15% 4% 2% 29% 16% 14% 4% 4% 7% 13% 17% 13%
Followers to the alliance they
belong to 20% 8% 5% 4% 10% 13% 14% 5% - 5% 8% 14% 7%
Struggling 4% 4% 5% 5% 14% 8% 11% 10% 3% 6% 7% 16% 9%
Destroying/ threatening the future
existence of Christians in Lebanon 4% 9% 2% 4% 9% 14% 12% 16% 4% 3% 4% 11% 2%
Perception of Marada
By Caza
Perception of Hezbollah
Q14. I am going to read to you some statements concerning Hezbollah. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Strongly disagree” and 5= “Strongly agree”, please tell me how much you agree or disagree with each of these statements?
N = 2000
64%
56%
52%
50%
48%
39%
34%
29%
26%
23%
19%
11%
20%
19%
13%
16%
28%
13%
19%
20%
17%
33%
28%
31%
39%
45%
39%
58%
54%
58%
Hezbollah is an Iranian party that works according to the Iranian agenda
Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Lebanon
Since the withdrawal of Israel in 2000, Hezbollah is no more needed and should be disarmed
Hezbollah is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state
Hezbollah weapons are a danger on Christians
Hezbollah weapons are a current necessity but should be removed on the long term
Hezbollah weapons are an important counter weight to Salafists
Hezbollah weapons are an absolute necessity for Lebanon’s security
Hezbollah is a Lebanese party whose main concern is the Lebanese state
Hezbollah weapons issue should not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war
Agree Neither Agree nor Disagree Disagree
Agree: Sig. more in Koura Disagree: Sig. more in Zgharta
Political Leader who Played a Positive Role in
the History of Lebanon
Q19. In the history of Lebanon, who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader (not necessarily late) who played a positive role in Lebanon more than others?
38%
19%
6%
4%
2%
2%
2%
Bachir Gemayel
Camil Chamoun
Fouad Chehab
Sleiman Frangieh
Bechara el Khoury
Elias Sarkis
Pierre Gemayel (Sr.)
N = 2000
Significantly more in Jbeil, Kesrwan, Metn & Baabda
Significantly more in Baabda & Jezzine
Political Leader who is Playing a Positive Role in
Lebanon and How
Q19a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a positive role in Lebanon more than others? Q19b. How?
28%
23%
16%
8%
7%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
None
Samir Geagea
Michel Aoun
Patriarch Bechara Raii
Michel sleimen
Sleimen Frangieh
Sami Gemayel
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah
Amin Gemayel
Najib Mikati
Walid Jumblat
Boutros Harb
55%
20% 16%
11% 11%
Preserves the rights of
Christians
Cares about the interests of the
Lebanese community
Maintained his stance
Attempt to unify
Christians
His speeches call for
state-building
How? Samir Geagea N=469
N=2000
27% 27%
9% 9% 7% 6% 6%
Cares about the interests
of the Lebanese
community
Preserves the rights of
Christians
Attempt to unify
Christians
Prevented major clashes by joining in alliance with
Hezbollah
Fought political
corruption
Made reconciliations
and agreements
Does not want to go
into war
How? Michel Aoun N=314
Sig. more among women
Sig. more among men 18-24
Sig. more among age 50+
Political Leader who is Playing a Negative Role
in Lebanon and How
Q20a. And who is, in your opinion, the prominent political leader who is actually playing a negative role in Lebanon more than others? Q20b. How?
27%
12%
8%
8%
7%
4%
Michel Aoun
Samir Geagea
All of them
Sayed Hassan Nasrallah
Saad El Hariri
Ahmad El asir
N=2000
28%
21%
16% 14% 13%
11% 9%
7% 6% 5% 5%
His alliance with
Hezbollah
Works for personal gain
He is stirring up conflicts
among Christians
His alliance with Syria
Does not adopt a firm
stance
Because of his association
with Iran
Instead of strengthening the Christians'
position, he weakened it
His main concern is to be
appointed in office
His work and projects are useless
His speeches are
provocative
He is leading us to
destruction
How? Michel Aoun N=540
19%
15% 15% 15%
9% 9% 6% 6% 5%
He wants to cause a civil war
He is stirring up conflicts
among Christians
His speeches are provocative
Works for personal gain
Instead of strengthening the Christians'
position, he weakened it
He does whatever is
requested by external
countries
He is leading us to destruction
Works with Israel
His work and projects are
useless
How? Samir Geagea N=239
March 14 vs. March 8
Q21. On a scale from 1 to 5, where 1= “Totally Dissatisfied” and 5= “Totally Satisfied”, please tell me in general, how much you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of: March 8 alliance? March 14 alliance?
N = 2000
25%
34%
15%
16%
60%
49%
March 8
March 14
Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied nor Satisfied Dissatisfied
Avg.
1.85
Avg.
1.65
Mistakes of March 14 and March 8 since 2005
Q22a. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 8th alliance since 2005? Q22b. What are in your opinion the main mistakes done by the March 14th alliance since 2005?
N = 2000
32%
24%
22%
19%
15%
14%
14%
10%
4%
4%
4%
Failed in the government/ Could not solve the problems/ Negative role …
Dominant power of Hezbollah/ Relying on Hezbollah’s weapons
Destruction of the country/ Turning their weapons inward/ war/ …
Ties with Iran & Syria
Lack of coordination and conformity
Corruption and lies
Don't know
None/ No mistakes
No vision for the future
Failed at communicating its good messages
Attacking the other party, the Sunnite leaders/ one-sided government
March 8 24%
17%
16%
15%
9%
9%
8%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
Lack of coordination and conformity
Corruption, stealing and lies
Failed in the government/ Could not solve the problems/ Negative role …
Unable to propose concrete solutions to the problems in …
Electing Nabih Berri as spokesman of the parliament despite the fact …
Concessions they did, caring for both parties interests rather than theirs, …
Protests, fighting, sit-ins, rallies
No political clarity/ volatile relationship with Syria/ multi leaders
Ties with Saudi Arabia
They have no vision for the future
Supporting the Syrian rebellion
Loyalty to western countries
March 14
Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the
Next Few Months
N = 2000
Q7a. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next few months?
89%
82%
77%
44%
40%
12%
11%
3%
3%
2%
1%
1%
7%
Provide security
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Solve economic issues
Political issues
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
Education
Drug problems
The situation of the prisons
National reconciliation
Environmental issue
Preserve/restore Christians' rights
Better performance of ministries
None
Main Topics
46%
21%
17%
9%
4%
2%
Provide security
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Solve economic issues
Political issues
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
National reconciliation
First Mentioned Main Topics
Main Topics for Christian Politicians to
Tackle as a Priority
Q11. What are the main topics you would like Christian politicians to tackle as a priority?
N = 2000
81%
78%
69%
53%
41%
17%
13%
9%
7%
3%
3%
8%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Provide security
Solve economic issues
Political issues
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
Education
Drug problems
National reconciliation
Preserve/restore Christians' rights
The situation of the prisons
Environmental issue
None
Main Topics
37%
22%
15%
11%
6%
4%
4%
Provide security
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Political issues
Solve economic issues
National reconciliation
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
Preserve/restore Christians' rights
First Mentioned Main Topics
Main Topics for Politicians to Tackle in the
Next 3 Years
N = 2000
Q7b. What are the main topics you would like politicians to tackle in the next 3 years?
87%
82%
72%
43%
40%
15%
12%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
7%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Provide security
Solve economic issues
Political issues
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
Education
Drug problems
Environmental issue
The situation of the prisons
Preserve/restore Christians' rights
National reconciliation
Better performance of ministries
None
Main Topics
39%
28%
17%
8%
5%
1%
1%
Provide security
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life
Solve economic issues
Political issues
Fight corruption & preserve people's rights
National reconciliation
Better performance of ministries
First Mentioned Main Topics
Political System Best for the Lebanese
Christians
Q10. In your opinion, what political system is the best for the Lebanese Christians?
35%
10%
9%
4%
4%
2%
The current system, but with a stronger state
Democratic system
Federal state
The current system (as it is)
Secular regime
Division of the country
N = 2000
Sig. more in Zgharta, Jbeil, Kesrwan & Metn
Sig. more in Bcharre, Koura, Batroun & Baabda
Improving March 8 Performance
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?
All of
them
Tayyar /
M. Aoun
Hezbollah /
S. H. Nasrallah
Gebran
Bassil
Nabih
Berri
Marada /
S. Frangieh
Bases 734 616 510 159 77 75
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions
towards their demands/ Better economic situation/ Work
on development
23% 29% 23% 97% 26% 34%
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians &
Muslims, politicians from different sides 26% 32% 27% 8% 37% 29%
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war,
destruction, protestations/ Not support extremists/
Strengthen the army
27% 15% 45% 18% 29% 13%
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries
interests 19% 16% 26% 8% 25% 21%
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore
their rights 9% 15% 3% 6% 2% 16%
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the
truth/ Be transparent 10% 8% 7% 7% 10% 8%
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a
national government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair
electoral law
5% 6% 7% 3% 10% 5%
Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 6% 6% 3% 10% 3%
Improving March 14 Performance
Q23a. What, in your opinion, could the March 8th alliance do or change to improve its performance? Q23a1. And which member(s) of the alliance has/have the influence to do this action or change?
All of them Lebanese Forces /
S. Geagea
Moustakbal /
S. El Hariri
Kataeb /
A.-S. Gemayel
Bases 750 574 412 161
Work for unity, agreement between people, Christians & Muslims,
politicians from different sides 31% 42% 39% 41%
Satisfy the citizens basic needs for life/ Take actions towards their
demands/ Better economic situation/ Work on development 15% 16% 21% 18%
Not follow foreign politics/ Not allow other countries interests 17% 12% 23% 13%
Work for peace & security/ Remove weapons/ Stop war, destruction,
protestations/ Not support extremists/ Strengthen the army 16% 9% 15% 7%
Stop corruption, stealing/ Stop squandering/ Tell the truth/ Be
transparent 12% 11% 11% 16%
Empower Christians/ Protect them/ Preserve, restore their rights 10% 15% 3% 17%
Work for Lebanon's interest, not personal/ Form a national
government/ Build a strong state/ Enact a fair electoral law 6% 6% 6% 9%
Leave the government/ Form a new government 5% 4% 3% 3%
Overall Wish List for Lebanon
Q24. Overall, what do you wish for Lebanon?
N = 2000
69%
67%
45%
39%
21%
20%
19%
Peace and concordance
Better economy
More security
Better conditions of life
Less corruption & more respect for laws
Unity between its people
New and competent politicians
Electoral Law Best for Lebanese Christians
Q15. Which electoral law do you think is for the best benefit of the Christians?
N = 2000
24%
24%
16%
7%
7%
6%
3%
3%
3%
Don't Know
Each community votes for its representatives
One circumscription with proportional representation
One man/ one vote
Majority rules but with small electoral districts
Same as last elections /2009 (majority rules)
Small constituencies
Proportional representation
The sixties' electoral law
Significantly more among voters of Kesrwan more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Zgharta more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Metn and Zahle more than the other regions
Significantly more among voters of Bechare more than the other regions
Influence to Vote for a Certain Candidate
Q16. In general, what influences you to vote for a certain candidate?
N = 2000
38%
30%
23%
16%
7%
6%
Qualifications of the candidate
Previous performance of the candidate
Political agenda
Nothing, I simply like the political party the candidate belongs to, for
no specific reason
Nothing, I simply like the candidate for no specific reason
Family influence
Gender Age
Ma
le
Fem
ale
18-2
0
21-3
4
35-4
9
50+
Qualifications of the
candidate 37% 41% 31% 40% 40% 37%
Previous performance of
the candidate 29% 32% 30% 31% 29% 31%
Political agenda 24% 23% 25% 27% 23% 21%
Nothing, I simply like the
political party the
candidate belongs to, for
no specific reason
19% 14% 24% 18% 16% 14%
Nothing, I simply like the
candidate for no specific
reason
8% 6% 4% 7% 6% 9%
Family influence 4% 7% 5% 7% 6% 4%
Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Q17a. Did you go to the polls in the last legislative elections in 2009? Q17c. Why not? Q18a.Will you go to the polls in the next legislative elections in 2013? Q18c. Why not?
Yes 75%
No 25%
Went to the polls in 2009 elections N = 2000
51%
13%
13%
11%
6%
I was below 21/ not the eligible age
I don't care about elections
There is no one who represents me
I was convinced that my vote would not change anything
I was outside the country
Why didn’t you Vote N = 498
Yes 67%
Not sure / undecided
11% No
22%
Will go to the polls in 2013 elections N = 2000
31%
21%
16%
15%
13%
4%
My vote will not change anything
I will still be below 21/ not the eligible age
There is no one who represents me
I don't care about elections
I am disappointed with whom I voted for before and I will not vote again
I don't believe that with the presence of armed parties, elections are free
Why will you Not Vote N = 498
Voting Patterns in 2009 / in 2013
Q17b. Who did you vote for? Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?
27%
24%
19%
14%
8%
5%
4%
3%
3%
FPM/Tayyar
Lebanese Forces
Someone from M14 coalition
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted
Kataeb
Someone from M8 coalition
Marada
Tashnag party candidates
No one, I voted with a white ballot
Who did you vote for in 2009? N=1502
25%
23%
20%
14%
7%
4%
4%
4%
Lebanese Forces
I didn't decide yet
FPM/Tayyar
Someone from M14 coalition
Kataeb
Marada
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote
Someone from M8 coalition
Who will you vote for in2013? N=1564
Voting Patterns in 2009
By Caza
Zgharta (N = 101)
Someone from M8 coalition 48%
Someone from M14 coalition 43%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 8%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Someone independent 1%
Someone my religious authority
supports 1%
Bechare (N =84)
Someone from M14 coalition 89%
Someone independent 11%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 3%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 1%
Someone from M8 coalition 1%
Koura ( N =83)
Someone from M14 coalition 47%
Someone from M8 coalition 47%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 11%
Someone independent 3%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 1%
Q17b. Who did you vote for?
Batroun (N = 95)
Someone from M14 coalition 52%
Someone from M8 coalition 34%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
Someone independent 2%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Jbeil (N =104)
Someone from M14 coalition 54%
Someone from M8 coalition 34%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 11%
Someone independent 4%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 4%
Kesrwan( N =163)
Someone from M8 coalition 47%
Someone from M14 coalition 35%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
Someone independent 5%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 4%
Voting Patterns in 2009
By Caza
Chouf (N = 86)
Someone from M14 coalition 51%
Someone from M8 coalition 33%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4%
Someone independent 1%
Beirut One (N =117)
Someone from M14 coalition 55%
Someone from M8 coalition 25%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 18%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4%
Someone independent 2%
Zahle ( N =157)
Someone from M14 coalition 48%
Someone from M8 coalition 31%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 19%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 5%
Someone independent 2%
Q17b. Who did you vote for?
Jezzine (N =58)
Someone from M8 coalition 54%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 19%
Someone from M14 coalition 16%
Someone independent 14%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Metn (N = 271)
Someone from M8 coalition 50%
Someone from M14 coalition 41%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 2%
Someone with the president 1%
Baabda (N =133)
Someone from M8 coalition 46%
Someone from M14 coalition 35%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 14%
No one, I voted with a white ballot 5%
Someone independent 3%
Aley ( N =49)
Someone from M14 coalition 51%
Someone from M8 coalition 41%
I don't want to reveal to whom I voted 17%
Voting Patterns in 2013
By Caza
Zgharta (N = 108)
Someone from M8 coalition 50%
Someone from M14 coalition 39%
I didn't decide yet 7%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 6%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Someone my religious authority
supports 1%
Someone independent 1%
Bechare (N =95)
Someone from M14 coalition 79%
I didn't decide yet 17%
Someone independent 2%
No one, I will vote with a white
ballot 1%
Someone from M8 coalition 1%
Koura ( N =89)
Someone from M14 coalition 34%
Someone from M8 coalition 34%
I didn't decide yet 29%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3%
Someone with the president 2%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will
vote 2%
Walid Azar 1%
Batroun (N =96)
Someone from M14 coalition 51%
I didn't decide yet 21%
Someone from M8 coalition 21%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 7%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3%
Someone independent 1%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?
Jbeil (N=102)
Someone from M14 coalition 44%
I didn't decide yet 28%
Someone from M8 coalition 20%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4%
Georges Corm 3%
Someone with the president 2%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Someone independent 1%
Voting Patterns in 2013
By Caza
Metn (N=265)
Someone from M8 coalition 37%
Someone from M14 coalition 33%
I didn't decide yet 26%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 3%
Common electoral lists 1%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?
Baabda (N=130)
Someone from M14 coalition 38%
Someone from M8 coalition 36%
I didn't decide yet 21%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4%
Someone independent 3%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 1%
Aley (N=57)
I didn't decide yet 39%
Someone from M14 coalition 25%
Someone from M8 coalition 23%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 8%
Someone independent 3%
Anis Nasr 2%
Ziad Baroud 2%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Kesrwan (N=175)
Someone from M8 coalition 40%
Someone from M14 coalition 31%
I didn't decide yet 21%
Someone independent 6%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 5%
Ziad Baroud 2%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Nematallah Efram 1%
National Liberal party 1%
Hekmat Efram 1%
Elie Keserwani 1%
Wissam Baroudi 1%
Voting Patterns in 2013
By Caza
Zahle (N=159)
Someone from M14 coalition 44%
Someone from M8 coalition 27%
I didn't decide yet 16%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 9%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 4%
Someone independent 2%
Someone with the president 1%
Q18b. If you go to the polls in 2013, who will you vote for?
Jezzine (N=68)
I didn't decide yet 37%
Someone from M8 coalition 35%
Someone fromM14 coalition 21%
Someone independent 5%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3%
Beirut one (N=121)
Someone from M14 coalition 48%
I didn't decide yet 26%
Someone from M8 coalition 22%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 4%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 2%
Someone independent 1%
Ramgavar party 1%
Michel Chidiac 1%
Hunchak party 1%
Chouf (N=99)
Someone from M14 coalition 42%
I didn't decide yet 26%
Someone from M8 coalition 23%
No one, I will vote with a white ballot 5%
I don't want to reveal to whom I will vote 3%
Someone independent 1%
TV Station Usually Watched
N = 2000
65% 64%
37%
31%
17%
8% 7% 7%
MTV LBCI Al Jadeed OTV Tele Lumiere Future Tele Liban Manar
M1. Which local TV station(s) do you watch most often?
Based on Top of Mind of the Christians interviewed in the specific Cazas of the study.
Internet Usage
M2. Do you have an internet connection at home? M3. Do you personally use the internet? If YES, where? M4. In general how often do you use the internet? M5. Specifically, how often do you use the internet for each of the following activities? M6. What websites do you visit most frequently for political news? Please name maximum 10 websites
Yes 67%
No 33%
Have Internet Connection at Home
N = 2000
Yes 53%
No 47%
Personally Use the Internet N = 2000 85%
52%
16% 4% 3% 3%
At home From my smart phone
/ Tablet
In the office From an internet cafe
At school/ at the
university
From somewhere
else
Where do you use the Internet From N =1062
N = 1062 Avg. / week:
21.47
50.2
39.65 36.02
22.4 22.11
16.11 14.15 13.64 12.09 8.55
Instant messaging/
video conference
Check your Facebook account
E-mail Post comments
about politics on Facebook
Read articles about
political news
Check your Twitter account
Watch or share videos
Post comments
about politics on
Read blogs Contribute on forums
Internet Activities – Avg. / Month N =1049
40%
34%
21%
14%
12%
12%
11%
lebaneseforces.com
tayyar.org
annahar.net
alnashra.com
mtv.com.lb
lbcgroup.tv
kataeb.org
Top 10 Political Websites N = 324
Christians Fears & Concerns
Christians mainly identify themselves as Lebanese and Christians
significantly more among the females.
They don’t see themselves as Arabs. Voters of Jbeil, Kesrwan and Metn
consider themselves “world citizens” more than other Cazas. And voters of
Jbeil, Kesrwan and Baabda identify themselves as “Pheneocian descendents”
more than other Cazas.
Despite how they identify themselves, the majority feel proud of being
Lebanese.
The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security
Situation and the Economic Situation.
Specifically the security situation is more significant among females and the
voters of Kesrwan, Baabda, Metn, and Jezzine.
To them the main dangers on their future is the “weak state” and the “corrupt
and inefficient politicians”. These factors reflect negatively on the
economic situation.
Besides the Lebanese Christians also consider the illegal weapons a great
danger on their future.
Specifically, those who mentioned that Hezbollah weapons is a dangerous
factor on their future, considered it as the 1st danger.
Christians Fears & Concerns
The Lebanese Christians are mainly interested in issues related to the
situation and presence of the Christians for example: (their future, land
selling, size of their power, leadership).
Also they are interested in living in peace with everyone around them.
they refuse any kind of war and consider the illegal weapons with the
different parties (Palestinians, Hezbollah, Salafists…) as a danger on their
future.
They want good relationships with everyone but also have a strong
leader that can defend the Christians.
To 39%, Hezbollah is to Shiites what Salafists are to Sunnites.
One third of the Lebanese Christians are still optimistic about their
presence in Lebanon and don’t consider themselves threatened because
they believe that they emerged from this region and are the core
founders of Lebanon.
However the other two thirds who are afraid is because they consider that
the Islamic presence in Lebanon currently has an advantage over the
Christians in terms of increased population, powerful roles, and unified
leaders. They see that the Immigration of the Christians , the absence
of a strong leader , and the continuous disputes between the political
parties are threatening of situation of the Christians.
Political Forces Assessment
40% of the Lebanese Christians believe that the government performance
didn’t change from before in terms of the security and economic situations.
Also to 42% these two issues has worsened.
However, 18% see that the performance of this government was better in
some ministries that worked for the interest of citizens.
The Lebanese Christians love Freedom, Independence, Democracy, and
Resistance.
While they fear Sectarianism , Integrism, Integralism, Wilayat el Fakih,
and Muslim Brotherhood.
To the majority Lebanese Forces is still the strongest political party and
the one working for the benefits of the Christians.
On the other hand, to the majority Hezbollah works with an Iranian agenda
and its weapons are dangerous to Lebanon and the Christians in specific.
Moreover it is working towards changing Lebanon into an Islamic state.
Despite the fact that Christians refuse any type of war and they want to live
in peace with everyone, they disagree that Hezbollah weapons issue should
not be discussed as it can lead to a civil war.
Political Forces Assessment
After 30 years of his assassination, Bachir Gemayel is still considered the
political leader who played a positive role in the history of Lebanon
significantly among the young Christians.
Camil Chamoun comes next however he is significantly named among the
older Christians.
In general, Christians assess a political leader to be playing a positive role if
he / she:
o Works to preserve the role of the Christians
o Unifies them (significant among females)
o Cares about the interests of the Lebanese Community
For those who consider Samir Geagea to be the leader playing a positive
role, they do so because they see that he works towards preserving the
rights of the Christians.
The Majority of the Lebanese Christians are more satisfied with the
performance of March 14 more than that of March 8.
In addition, the mistakes of March 14 after 2005 are related to the
performance of the alliance (e.g. coordination, failing in the government,
unable to propose concrete solutions), whereas the mistakes of March 8
are more crucial to the stability of the country like relying on the Hezbollah
weapons, May 7th events, and the failing of the government.
Christians’ Expectations
The main concerns of the Lebanese Christians today are the Security
Situation and the Economic Situation.
These two concerns are also the main topics that they want the
politicians in general and the Christian politicians in specific to tackle in
as a priority, in the short run and the long run.
As a fact, these two issues are highly related to each other. If the
security situation is not stable the economy cannot flourish. Any
security issue can cause great set-backs in the economy.
The Lebanese Christians don’t want a different kind of political system
from the current one but they want a stronger state.