prospects for u.s. oil & natural gas · 2012-07-23 · prospects for u.s. oil & natural gas...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Prospects for U.S. Oil & Natural Gas
for The Aspen Institute: Global Energy Forum July 20, 2012| Aspen, CO by Adam Sieminski, Administrator
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Primary energy use by fuel, 1980-2035 …in absolute terms, all fuels grow except petroleum liquids
1
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. energy consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Renewables (excluding biofuels)
Liquid biofuels
Petroleum and other liquids
Coal
Nuclear
Natural gas
21%
37%
9%
25%
7% 1%
20%
32%
9%
26%
11% 4%
Share of total U.S. energy use
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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U.S. shale gas production comprised over 30 percent of total U.S. dry production in 2011
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH)
shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day
Sources: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of May 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Shale gas grows from under a quarter to about half of U.S. gas production from 2010-2035
3
U.S. dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Lower 48 offshore
Projections History
Coalbed methane
Lower 48 onshore conventional
Shale gas
2010
Alaska
Tight gas
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
1%
12%
6% 10%
22%
49%
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U.S. production of shale gas in four cases, 2000-2035
4
dry natural gas production trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
High EUR
Reference
Low EUR
High TRR
2010 History Projections
Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR) Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
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Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 5
Lower 48 oil and gas shale plays and federal lands
Source: EIA
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6
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. dry natural gas trillion cubic feet
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic production
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
U.S. becomes a net natural gas exporter in 2022
5%
11% Net imports, 2010
Net exports, 2035
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U.S. natural gas spot prices are very low compared to prices in other regions and oil prices
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
Sources: EIA, Bloomberg, as of July 17, 2012
7
global spot natural gas and crude oil prices U.S. dollars per million British thermal unit
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Non-hydro renewable sources grow nearly three-fold by 2035; growth climbs nearly five-fold with a price on CO2
8
non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
200
400
600
800
2010 Ref Low High Low GHG25 Ref Low High Low GHG25
2025 2035
Wind
Biomass
Geothermal
Solar
Municipal waste
Coal Cost
Gas Price
Economic Growth
Coal Cost
Gas Price
Economic Growth
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Energy-related CO2 emissions
2005 2020 2035 Energy-related CO2 emissions
6.00 5.43 5.76
% change from 2005 - - -9.4% -4.0%
Energy-related CO2 emissions never get back to pre-recession levels in the AEO2012 Reference case
9
energy carbon dioxide emissions billion metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010 2005
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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U.S. natural gas prices separate from crude oil price equivalency
10
spot market prices 2010 dollars per million Btu
Source: EIA, Bloomberg
Crude oil (West Texas Intermediate)
Natural gas (Henry Hub)
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Non-OECD liquid fuels use is expected to surpasses almost flat OECD liquid fuels use in the near future
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
total liquids consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Projections History 2010
Other non-OECD
OECD Americas
OECD
62
48
40%
19%
35%
41
Non-OECD 46
11 Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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Tight oil production for selected plays approaches 900,000 barrels per day in March 2012
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 12
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Eagle Ford
Bakken
Granite Wash
Bonespring
Monterey
Woodford
Niobrara
Spraberry
Austin Chalk
thousand barrels of oil per day
Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through March, 2012.
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U.S. leads the league table for non-OPEC crude oil and liquid fuels growth 2011-13
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 13
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Uni
ted
Sta
tes
Can
ada
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Col
ombi
a
Kaz
akhs
tan
Bra
zil
Viet
nam
Indi
a
Mal
aysi
a
Om
an
Gab
on
Aus
tralia
Egy
pt
Syr
ia
Oth
er N
orth
Sea
Aze
rbai
jan
Mex
ico
Sud
an
Nor
way
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
2013 2012 2011
million barrels per day
Source: EIA July Short-Term Energy Outlook
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Tight oil resource potential and production remain highly uncertain
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 14
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
tight oil production million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
High TRR
Reference
High EUR
Low EUR
Technically Recoverable Resource (TRR) Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)
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U.S. imports of liquid fuels fall due to increased domestic production – including biofuels – and greater efficiency
15
U.S. liquid fuels consumption million barrels per day
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
2010 Low High High Low High High EUR TRR
2025 2035
49%
5%
36%
10%
Natural gas plant liquids
Other non- petroleum
petroleum supply
Biofuels
Net petroleum imports
Domestic
including imports
EUR EUR TRR EUR supply Reference Reference
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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U.S. dependence on imported petroleum declines …moves even lower in various “side case” scenarios
0
5
10
15
20
25
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
U.S. liquid fuel supply million barrels per day
Projections History 2010
Consumption
Domestic supply
Net petroleum imports 49%
36% 60%
2005
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012
16 Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
14% Extended Policies High TRR
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0
2
4
6
8
10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Heavy-duty vehicle natural gas consumption grows substantially in an AEO2012 side case
17
heavy-duty vehicle fuel consumption quadrillion Btu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (heavy-duty natural gas vehicle case)
Motor Gasoline
Projections History
Natural Gas
Diesel
2010
92%
8%
5%
64%
31%
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
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AEO2012 scenarios show wide range of outcomes
18 Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
• Reference case
• High and low economic growth
• High and low oil price
• High and low estimated ultimate recovery cases and high technically recoverable resources
• Integrated high and low technology (demand, renewables, electric power, refining, nuclear)
• Policy related: Extended Policy, No Sunset, No Greenhouse Gas Concern, carbon dioxide allowance fee ($15 and $25), and 5-year investment recovery with reference and with low natural gas prices
• Proposed light-duty vehicle CAFE standards; advanced battery technology; heavy-duty truck natural gas potential
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Independence does not eliminate interdependence
19 Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012
“…quasi oil self-sufficiency will neither insulate the United States from the rest of the global oil market (and world oil prices), nor diminish the critical importance of the Middle East to its foreign policy.”
Source: Harvard Kennedy School, Oil: the Next Revolution, June 2012
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For more information
Adam Sieminski July 20, 2012 20
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