prokons overview 070126 web · design • fully skinable cssfully skinable cssfully skinable css-...

ProKons ProKons ProKons ProKons ---- Prediction Markets:Prediction Markets:Prediction Markets:Prediction Markets:Application Range of a Web 2.0 Software Solution

January 2007

2© 2007 BDF-net Agentur für neue Medien GmbH

Overview - Improve decision making

• ProKons is a tool to improve decisionProKons is a tool to improve decisionProKons is a tool to improve decisionProKons is a tool to improve decision----making and the way how organisations think about the future.making and the way how organisations think about the future.making and the way how organisations think about the future.making and the way how organisations think about the future.

• ProKons is a simple and fast method to transform many diverse opProKons is a simple and fast method to transform many diverse opProKons is a simple and fast method to transform many diverse opProKons is a simple and fast method to transform many diverse opinions into one collective wisdom.inions into one collective wisdom.inions into one collective wisdom.inions into one collective wisdom.

• ProKons can exploit the collective wisdom of many organisation mProKons can exploit the collective wisdom of many organisation mProKons can exploit the collective wisdom of many organisation mProKons can exploit the collective wisdom of many organisation members and use distributed knowembers and use distributed knowembers and use distributed knowembers and use distributed know----how.how.how.how.

Prognosis-Module: Prediction of specific events

using „PREDICTION MARKETS“

Consenus-Modul: Decision making by use of virtualized

consensus processes.

• Future markets on upcoming events:Trading futures on real events with virtual stock markets. The share-price represents the collective opinion (prediction) on the outcome of the event.

• Based on the hypothesis of the Austrian Nobel-prize -winner F. A. Hayek prices are being used as indicators for distributed information.

• The consensus-module allows a web-based display and implementation of free definable decision-making-processes. Decision-making-models are individually configurable.

• The Solution can be used to completely virtualize or just accompany and document different processes of decision making.


History (1): FUNDAQ

1999: FUNDAQ AG 1999: FUNDAQ AG 1999: FUNDAQ AG 1999: FUNDAQ AG –––– Expert Company for prediction markets founded. Expert Company for prediction markets founded. Expert Company for prediction markets founded. Expert Company for prediction markets founded.

Günther Fädler, Peter Gollowitsch an other members of today's “ProKons-Team” start working together on prediction markets.

The Software The Software The Software The Software “FUNDAQ Trading Tool” was an early version of the current ProKons-Software.

Selected projects between 1999-2002 …


Funexchange

TradingTradingTradingTrading----community platformcommunity platformcommunity platformcommunity platform, ongoing markets on different topics (Politics, sports, finance... Free to play from 1999 to 2001), IPOIPOIPOIPO----markets, rolling marketsmarkets, rolling marketsmarkets, rolling marketsmarkets, rolling markets

Client:

FUNDAQ‘s ownplay-money portal


Wahlfieber

Political real money marketsPolitical real money marketsPolitical real money marketsPolitical real money markets

Client:

BLUE-C, Fundaq partly in cooperation with SH:Z (AT, DE)


adstyles

User Initiated marketsUser Initiated marketsUser Initiated marketsUser Initiated markets on online Advertising CampaignsSelf-Referenced Market to elect the online campaign of the year

Client:

derstandard.at, Active Agent, Werbeakademie, Horizont (AT)


TwinFunds

Prototype of a finance product targeting to setup a communitycommunitycommunitycommunity----controlled realcontrolled realcontrolled realcontrolled real----money fundmoney fundmoney fundmoney fund.

Client:

BLUE-C (AT, DE)


RZB Musikbörse

Youth community edutainment projectYouth community edutainment projectYouth community edutainment projectYouth community edutainment project

Client:

Raiffeisen ZentralBank in Cooperation with Ö3-Radio (AT)


Other Markets

Various play money sport marketsVarious play money sport marketsVarious play money sport marketsVarious play money sport markets

Client:

Krone,Kurier, OeKB, Boerse Online –Gruner+Jahr, N24- ProSiebenSAT1 Media AG, breathe.net(AT, DE. UK)


derStandard Wahlbörse

Various political play money marketsVarious political play money marketsVarious political play money marketsVarious political play money markets

Client:

derstandard.at (AT)


History (2): BDF-net

2002: 2002: 2002: 2002: FUNDAQ and its owner BLUE-C resign business.

BDF-net is founded by the Advertising Company Buchegger, Denoth, Feichtner together with

Günther Fädler and Peter Gollowitsch.

The new company takes over the „FUNDAQ trading tool“, the core tThe new company takes over the „FUNDAQ trading tool“, the core tThe new company takes over the „FUNDAQ trading tool“, the core tThe new company takes over the „FUNDAQ trading tool“, the core team and other assets.eam and other assets.eam and other assets.eam and other assets.

BDF-net is founded as a New Media Agency and sets up a classical customer portfolio for B2B and B2C web-communication between 2002 and 2005.

In synergy with this new communication competencesynergy with this new communication competencesynergy with this new communication competencesynergy with this new communication competence the team continuously develops the former “FUNDAQ Trading ToolFUNDAQ Trading ToolFUNDAQ Trading ToolFUNDAQ Trading Tool” to its Version 2.0 – called ProKonsProKonsProKonsProKons.

The ProKons project is co-financed by the Austrian research agency FFG.

“Pro” stands for “Prognosemärkte” (Prediction Marke ts).This module allows the fast setup of complex market models and provides highly flexible configuration and administration options of prediction-market projects.

“Kons” stands for “Konsensfindung” (Consensus-Build ing).This Module virtualizes consensus-building and decision-making processes incorporating powerful process-virtualization capabilities and secure voting mechanisms.


Web 2.0 Overview

Quelle: Markus Angermeier, Aperto AG Berlin, (www.aperto.de)


Features in a Web 2.0 context (1)

StandardizationStandardizationStandardizationStandardization

• Fully W3C standard compliant fronted Fully W3C standard compliant fronted Fully W3C standard compliant fronted Fully W3C standard compliant fronted –––– WAIWAIWAIWAI----AA if demandedAA if demandedAA if demandedAA if demanded

DesignDesignDesignDesign

• Fully skinable CSSFully skinable CSSFully skinable CSSFully skinable CSS----Layouts Layouts Layouts Layouts –––– different designs within one market entitydifferent designs within one market entitydifferent designs within one market entitydifferent designs within one market entity

• Continuous designContinuous designContinuous designContinuous design----improvements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communication projectson projectson projectson projects

ConvergenceConvergenceConvergenceConvergence

• Dynamic XML content feeds Dynamic XML content feeds Dynamic XML content feeds Dynamic XML content feeds

RemixabilityRemixabilityRemixabilityRemixability

• NoNoNoNo----table layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, search----engine optimized engine optimized engine optimized engine optimized frontendfrontendfrontendfrontend

• Highly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive Google----indexing (search result, AdSense)indexing (search result, AdSense)indexing (search result, AdSense)indexing (search result, AdSense)

• Standard APIs (under development)Standard APIs (under development)Standard APIs (under development)Standard APIs (under development)

• RSSRSSRSSRSS----feed optionfeed optionfeed optionfeed option


Features in a Web 2.0 context (2)

ParticipationParticipationParticipationParticipation

• CommunityCommunityCommunityCommunity----based consensusbased consensusbased consensusbased consensus----building (building (building (building (KonsKonsKonsKons----Module)Module)Module)Module)

• Extensive community featuresExtensive community featuresExtensive community featuresExtensive community features

• Diverse rightsDiverse rightsDiverse rightsDiverse rights----role conceptrole conceptrole conceptrole concept

• Dynamic multiDynamic multiDynamic multiDynamic multi----language support (UTF8)language support (UTF8)language support (UTF8)language support (UTF8)

UsabilityUsabilityUsabilityUsability

• Continuous interfaceContinuous interfaceContinuous interfaceContinuous interface----improvements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communicatiimprovements based on the experience of multiple web communication projectson projectson projectson projects

Economy Economy Economy Economy

• Short project startup time Short project startup time Short project startup time Short project startup time ---- instant application and market setup through administration intinstant application and market setup through administration intinstant application and market setup through administration intinstant application and market setup through administration interfaceerfaceerfaceerface

• MultiMultiMultiMulti----Client capability Client capability Client capability Client capability ---- multiple project within one technical instancemultiple project within one technical instancemultiple project within one technical instancemultiple project within one technical instance

• ASPASPASPASP----hosting or standalone optionhosting or standalone optionhosting or standalone optionhosting or standalone option

• Low hardware requirementsLow hardware requirementsLow hardware requirementsLow hardware requirements

• High ScalabilityHigh ScalabilityHigh ScalabilityHigh Scalability

• Order overOrder overOrder overOrder over----commit for better marketcommit for better marketcommit for better marketcommit for better market----liquidity (Proliquidity (Proliquidity (Proliquidity (Pro----Module)Module)Module)Module)

• Highly developed securityHighly developed securityHighly developed securityHighly developed security----features for playfeatures for playfeatures for playfeatures for play----money markets (Promoney markets (Promoney markets (Promoney markets (Pro----Module)Module)Module)Module)


Implementation: Community aspects (1)

Syndication capabilities are a widely agreed characteristic of WSyndication capabilities are a widely agreed characteristic of WSyndication capabilities are a widely agreed characteristic of WSyndication capabilities are a widely agreed characteristic of Web 2.0.eb 2.0.eb 2.0.eb 2.0.

ProKons allows socialProKons allows socialProKons allows socialProKons allows social----network aspects through its community environment. network aspects through its community environment. network aspects through its community environment. network aspects through its community environment.

Community spreads markets

Community diversifies users

Community generates topics

Users help users

media coverage

Avoid empty markets - enter the topic

Community spreads markets through the web and diver sifies users

TOPIC

People interested in:

TRADING

COMMUNITYCORE

EXTENDEDCOMMUNITY

“CROWD”

MARKET

Market aggregates information

Community feeds the web.

word of mouth

web 2.0 services

search engines

TOPIC

PREDICTION


Implementation: Community aspects (2)

Community spreads markets

Community diversifies users

Community generates topics

Users help users

media coverage

Avoid empty markets - enter the topic

Community spreads markets through the web and diver sifies users

TOPIC

People interested in:

TRADING

COMMUNITYCORE

EXTENDEDCOMMUNITY

“CROWD”

MARKET

Market aggregates information

Community feeds the web.

word of mouth

web 2.0 services

search engines

TOPIC

PREDICTION

From a “marketFrom a “marketFrom a “marketFrom a “market----mechanism” view there is a known tendency that communitymechanism” view there is a known tendency that communitymechanism” view there is a known tendency that communitymechanism” view there is a known tendency that community----features reduces the accuracy features reduces the accuracy features reduces the accuracy features reduces the accuracy of a market. From a web 2.0 (communication, social) view communiof a market. From a web 2.0 (communication, social) view communiof a market. From a web 2.0 (communication, social) view communiof a market. From a web 2.0 (communication, social) view community spreads markets and therefore ty spreads markets and therefore ty spreads markets and therefore ty spreads markets and therefore diversifies users. diversifies users. diversifies users. diversifies users.


wirtschaftsblatt.at

Foo

tbal

l Nat

. Lea

gue

Foo

tbal

l WC Pre

s. E

lect

ion

GE

R

netzeitung.de

weltmeisterschaft.de

sportnet.at

sportal.chsportal.de

FR-online.de

bhm-music.de

volksstimme.de

lohro.de

Implementation: “Multiple Skins” paradigm

Flexible setupFlexible setupFlexible setupFlexible setup----scenarios between scenarios between scenarios between scenarios between instances, languages, instances, languages, instances, languages, instances, languages, entitesentitesentitesentites/markets, skins/markets, skins/markets, skins/markets, skins....

Fully configurable through administration interface.Fully configurable through administration interface.Fully configurable through administration interface.Fully configurable through administration interface.

bezirksblaetter.at

thelocal.se

oe24.at

Nat

iona

lrats

wah

l A

market 1market 2market n

Instances Entities / Markets Skins (Usergroups)

more users

higher diversity

more activity

accurate predictionslanguage 1language 2language n

wah

lfieb

er.c

omfu

ssba

ll-bo

erse

.eu

language 1language 2language n


Implementation: Search Engine Integration (1)

Transparent contentpresentation to search engines

Accurate Indexing in Natural Search Engine Results

Accurate „Google Adsense“ Results

NoNoNoNo----table layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, search----engine optimized frontengine optimized frontengine optimized frontengine optimized front----endsendsendsends

Highly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive Google----indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)

Visitors View Search Engine View


"Die "Die "Die "Die GroKoGroKoGroKoGroKo kommt" kommt" kommt" kommt" [[[[CommunityCommunityCommunityCommunity EntryEntryEntryEntry]]]]25.60025.60025.60025.6003333GROKOGROKOGROKOGROKO[Synonym [Synonym [Synonym [Synonym forforforfor „Große Koalition“]„Große Koalition“]„Große Koalition“]„Große Koalition“]

Out ofOut ofOut ofOut ofPositionPositionPositionPosition

LatvianLatvianLatvianLatvian ElectionElectionElectionElection 2006200620062006 [Market][Market][Market][Market]

Wer wird neuer Finanzminister?Wer wird neuer Finanzminister?Wer wird neuer Finanzminister?Wer wird neuer Finanzminister? [Market][Market][Market][Market]

MidtermMidtermMidtermMidterm ElectionElectionElectionElection 2006 (Senate) 2006 (Senate) 2006 (Senate) 2006 (Senate) ---- in in in in membersmembersmembersmembers [Market][Market][Market][Market]

WerWerWerWer wirdwirdwirdwird neuerneuerneuerneuer BildungsministerBildungsministerBildungsministerBildungsminister? ? ? ? [Market][Market][Market][Market]

Wer wird nach der Nationalratswahl SPÖWer wird nach der Nationalratswahl SPÖWer wird nach der Nationalratswahl SPÖWer wird nach der Nationalratswahl SPÖ----Vorsitzender? Vorsitzender? Vorsitzender? Vorsitzender? [Market][Market][Market][Market]

DeepDeepDeepDeep LinkedLinkedLinkedLinked totototo

(Market / (Market / (Market / (Market / CommunityCommunityCommunityCommunity EntryEntryEntryEntry))))

Google.atGoogle.atGoogle.atGoogle.atSearch TermSearch TermSearch TermSearch Term

454.000454.000454.000454.00013131313JaunaisJaunaisJaunaisJaunais LaiksLaiksLaiksLaiks

41.30041.30041.30041.30030303030Karl Heinz GrasserKarl Heinz GrasserKarl Heinz GrasserKarl Heinz Grasser

10.400.00010.400.00010.400.00010.400.00018181818midterm election midterm election midterm election midterm election 2006200620062006

449.000449.000449.000449.0007777Günter Günter Günter Günter HaiderHaiderHaiderHaider

41.30041.30041.30041.3003333SPÖSPÖSPÖSPÖ----VorsitzenderVorsitzenderVorsitzenderVorsitzender

Implementation: Search Engine Integration (2)

Transparent contentpresentation to search engines

Accurate Indexing in Natural Search Engine Results

Accurate „Google Adsense“ Results

NoNoNoNo----table layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, searchtable layouts, search----engine optimized frontengine optimized frontengine optimized frontengine optimized front----endsendsendsends

Highly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive GoogleHighly sensitive Google----indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)indexing (search results, AdSense)

Query results from 01.Nov.2006


Implementation: Administration & Security

ProKons has an extensive administration interface. ProKons has an extensive administration interface. ProKons has an extensive administration interface. ProKons has an extensive administration interface.

It allows easy management of each application module and provideIt allows easy management of each application module and provideIt allows easy management of each application module and provideIt allows easy management of each application module and provides multiple security features.s multiple security features.s multiple security features.s multiple security features.

Market management

Community management

User administration

Multi language administration

Content managemet

Newslettering

User security

General security

Basic application setup & Skins


References (1)

Flexible Flexible Flexible Flexible setupsetupsetupsetup----szenariosszenariosszenariosszenarios betweenbetweenbetweenbetween instancesinstancesinstancesinstances, , , , entitesentitesentitesentites////marketsmarketsmarketsmarkets, , , , languageslanguageslanguageslanguages, , , , skinsskinsskinsskins....

FullyFullyFullyFully configurableconfigurableconfigurableconfigurable throughthroughthroughthrough administrationadministrationadministrationadministration interfaceinterfaceinterfaceinterface....

Client:Sportal.de

Instance:fussball-boerse.eu

Market:Bundesliga GERBundesliga CHChampions League

Language:German


References (2)



Client:Verlagsgruppe Sportmagazin



Language:German


References (3)



Client:Volksstimme.de

Instance:fussball-boerse.euwahlfieber.de

Market:Bundesliga GERBundesliga CHChampions LeagueLandtagswahl M.V.

Language:German


References (4)



Client:FR-online



Language:German


References (5)



Client:Netzeitung.de


Market:Bundesliga GER

Language:German


References (6)



Client:Mediatrust


Market:Football World SoccerGames

Language:German


References (7)



Client:BHM ProductionsGmbH


Market:Bundesliga GER

Language:German


References (8)



Client:Bezirksblätter

Instance:wahlfieber.at

Market:Gemeinderatswahl St. Pölten

Language:German


References (9)



Client:The Local


Market:Sweden

Language:English


References (10)



Client:LOHRO c/o Kulturnetzwerk e.V.


Market:Landtagswahlen Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

Language:German


References (11)



Client:Österreich – OE24.at


Market:Nationalratswahl ATdiverse Themenmärkte

Language:German

Note:Win lunch with the newchancellor


Contact

BDFBDFBDFBDF----net Agentur für neue Medien GmbHnet Agentur für neue Medien GmbHnet Agentur für neue Medien GmbHnet Agentur für neue Medien GmbH

Siebensterngasse 46/1/44Siebensterngasse 46/1/44Siebensterngasse 46/1/44Siebensterngasse 46/1/44

1070 Wien1070 Wien1070 Wien1070 Wien

T +43T +43T +43T +43----1111----585 6670585 6670585 6670585 6670

F +43F +43F +43F +43----1111----585 6670 90585 6670 90585 6670 90585 6670 90

www.prokons.comwww.prokons.comwww.prokons.comwww.prokons.com

www.bdfwww.bdfwww.bdfwww.bdf----net.comnet.comnet.comnet.com

Günther Fädler, PartnerGünther Fädler, PartnerGünther Fädler, PartnerGünther Fädler, Partner

gf@bdfgf@bdfgf@[email protected] of Politcal Economics, Focus Information Technologies

Vienna University of Economics

Peter Gollowitsch, PartnerPeter Gollowitsch, PartnerPeter Gollowitsch, PartnerPeter Gollowitsch, Partner

pg@bdfpg@bdfpg@[email protected] of Economics, Focus Information Technologies

Vienna University of Economics

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