principles of energy master planning

Tampa Convention Center • Tampa, Florida

Principles of Energy Master Planning

USACE Sustainability Component Plan

Mr. Andrew Nelson and Dr. Alexander ZhivovUS Army Engineer R&D Center

August 16, 2017

Energy Exchange: Connect • Collaborate • Conserve

Outline

• Background• Energy Master Planning Methodology• Setting Energy Goals and Constraints• Integrating Energy Systems Resilience• Analysis scope and boundaries• Establishing Baseline, Base Case and Alternative Scenarios • NZP Tool for Energy Master Planning • Selecting the optimal scenario

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Task D: Example of Requirement for National Implementation

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Background


Establish Scope & Boundaries of

Analysis

Establish Energy Goals

Establish Baseline models & calibrate against metered data. Include buildings, distribution, & conversion.

Collect Data (Energy, existing systems, added, demolished, renovated bldgs., planned projects)

Establish Base Case. Modify baseline model to reflect scope of demolition, construction, renovation, and planned changes in distribution and conversion included in Base Case.

Develop alternative scenario(s)

Optimize installation conversion, distribution, & storage architecture

Develop load profiles for building cluster(s)

Conduct building-level optimization

Iterate between building loads & installation optimization for all scenarios

Scenario 1Scenario 2

Scenario N

Compare scenarios against baseline, Base Case using energy goals and decision criteria• Energy• Economics• Qualitative

criteria

Adjust goals if needed & select best scenario

Develop Implementation Strategy• Roadmap• Milestones• Phased Implementation

Plan• Projects• Capital strategy• Life Cycle Costs

Energy Master Planning Process Methodology

Zhivov, A., M. Case, R. Liesen, J. Kimman, and W. Broers. 2014. Energy master planning towards net-zero energy communities/campuses. ASHRAE Transactions 119(1).


Energy Goals and Core Values

• Energy Master Planning requires clear definition of long- and short-term energy goals, important limitations and other priorities;

• Long-term energy goals can include:• Site or end energy; • Source or primary energy;• Energy Efficiency;• Energy Security;• Energy Independence; • Energy Resilience;• Reliability of Energy Systems;• Electrical grid peak reduction, etc.

• Non- energetic targets: comfort, IAQ, functionality.


Task A: Example of energy targets (EUI) based on building activities and climate

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Example of energy targets (EUI) based on building activities and climate (based on Army memorandum from January 17, 2016)


Resilience• An Energy Resilient Community provides energy services required for mission-critical facilities (e.g., hospitals, datacenters, shelters, dining facilities, etc.) by planning for, withstanding, adapting to, and recovering from disruptions, both natural and manmade. The prioritization of energy services under limited resources is based on a multi-scenario, all-hazards view of how energy services lead to mission achievement for these facilities.

• Per Benjamin Sovacool (2011) resilience relates to “adaptive capacity” or the “ability for communities to respond to natural disasters” by maintaining:

– Capacity margins– Reserve margins– Peak load to base load ratios– Generator profiles summer/winter– Emergency stockpiles for oil (days meet demand)– Emergency stockpiles for coal (days meet demand)– Emergency stockpiles for natural gas (days meet demand)– Availability of trained repair personnel– Availability of spare parts and supplies– Generation adequacy– System adequacy.

Resilience


Examples of Community Boundaries

Community with boundaries defined byphysical limitations

Community boundaries aredefined by building clusters

Examples of Community Boundaries


• The scope of the energy minimization effort can include: – residential, – commercial, – public buildings; – community-based infrastructure; – industrial energy users; – community-owned and transit transportation;– other energy-consuming users; or – any combination of those.

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Scope


• A snapshot of the installation’s mission(s) and tenant(s) – High- to mid-level data on resource consumption, trends, and

goals – for example monthly energy consumption by commodity to provide a picture of seasonal energy use – and profiles of energy use over a period of years to reveal trends.

• Includes a description of the nature, condition and future state of the installation’s key energy infrastructure, any major changes anticipated by the installation that would influence energy consumption.

• Should include a list of all recently completed energy projects to provide a history of energy investments to date;

• Energy and other commodities requirements for mission critical facilities (by tiers) and the level of resiliency of systems supporting these facilities.

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Baseline


Base Case

• The Base Case is defined as a future “business as usual” alternative that includes all existing and already planned facilities

• Baseline data can be used to project a Base Case for energy use given availability of information on increase or decrease of energy use due to – New construction, – Consolidation, and – Demolishing processes, – Buildings repurposing and change of mission, – New and existing utility contracts and known contracts to expire.

• Any planned and programmed measures for energy use reduction through efficiency measures shall be included in the Base Case scenario.

• It is important to include data showing the cost of implementation of the Base Case as well as changes in site, and source energy use, energy cost, and changes in resiliency of utilities compared to the Baseline.

• The base case scenario energy use can be higher or lower than in the baseline.


• A future “business as usual” scenario that includes existing and planned facilities. Facilities from the baseline that are planned for demolition are not included.

• The baseline for buildings and energy systems is adjusted to reflect all already planned and funded modifications.

• It is important to include data showing the cost of implementation of the Base Case as well as changes in site, and source energy use, energy cost, and changes in resiliency of utilities compared to the Baseline.

• The base case scenario energy use can be higher or lower than in the baseline.

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Base Case


• Analyze gaps: compare the Base Case state of energy and water consumption and the systems resiliency against the installation’s vision and goals.

• The analysis should quantify the energy and water savings needed to meet goals, resilience gaps for energy and water systems and the approach to energy projects that is needed to produce the necessary results.

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Base Case Vs Energy Goals


• A handful of alternative scenarios shall be selected that will be analyzed in depth.

• In these scenarios three major elements: energy conversion, energy distribution, and energy demandshall be optimized and analyzed together with energy and water systems architecture.

• Cost effectiveness shall be assigned to the overall scenario rather than to individual system or its element

• Find the optimum balance of three system’s elements for the entire installation energy system and those servicing mission critical facilities that will meet the established installation’s energy, water and resiliency goals at the lowest life cycle cost.

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Alternative Scenarios


• Based on quantitative data from analysis of scenarios• Qualitative data can be used (e.g. stakeholder opinions)• Sensitivity analysis can be conducted on importance of

different metrics

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Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis


Implementation Strategies: Back-casting and Fore-casting

Back-casting - the process of defining milestones and determining necessary steps to reach the final goal. Forecasting - planning projects to meet milestones defined through the back-casting process: setting project requirements, and optimizing and designing projects and sets of projects in a holistic way that is geared to meeting each milestone

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Implementation strategies, Cont.

• Long-term goals should be transitioned into medium term goals (milestones) and short-term projects, which must have tangible results.

• It is important to recognize that many decision makers have limited term assignments or duties and will more likely commit to projects that can be realized during their tenure.

• Furthermore, short-term projects satisfy the short-term interest of the private sector. It is important to get commitment from both decision makers and the private sector since they play key roles in achieving the long-term goal.

• Note: short-term projects shall 100% fit on the roadmap towards the long-term goals.


Net Zero PlannerTM Tool

• Web based tool that assists in installation-wide energy, water, and waste planning

• Easy to use after setup• Projects energy, water and waste

usage or streams before and after measures are applied.

• Estimates costs and returns for ROI analysis

• Integrates with the Master Planning process

• Provides data to create a roadmap and projects

Energy Cluster View

Master Facility Map

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Four Generations of Central Energy Systems (Power and Thermal)

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Thank you

Questions?

Mr. Andrew [email protected]

Dr. Alexander [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

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