presentation: surveillance of climate change health impact
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Dr. D. Anwar MusadadCenter for Public Health Intervention Technology, National Institute of Health Research & Development, MoH at Bogor, Indonesia last 29 Oct 2015TRANSCRIPT
Dr. D. Anwar Musadad
Center for Public Health Intervention Technology
National Institute of Health Research & Development, MoH
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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The increasing greenhouse gasses:
CO2: 31%
CH4: 51% N2O: 17%
Earth mean surface temperature: Increase 0,2-0,4 ºC / decade
Sea level:
Predicted to rise 15-95 cm at year 2100
Source:IPCC
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Sources of uncertainty in climate- induced health related problems
Source : WHO; climate change and human health, 2003
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Source : WHO, 2007
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
Key facts WHO (fact sheet No. 266, August 2014):
• Climate change affects the social and environmental factors of health such as clean water, safe drinking water, adequate food and safe housing
• From 2030 to 2050, climate change is expected to cause about 250.000 deaths/year due to malnutrition, malaria, diarrhea and heat stress
• Direct damage to the health costs estimated at US $ 2-4 million / year in 2030
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Dengue007/CMH/260302
1960s
1990s
Dengue fever only
DHF/DSS
Thousand-fold increase in reported incidence
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Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission
• Shorten viral incubation period in mosquito
• Shorten breeding cycle of mosquito
• Increase frequency of mosquito feeding
• More efficient transmission of dengue virus from mosquito to human
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
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• Availability and completion of demography, climate, and disease data for 5-12 years only
• No routine data of risk factors, such as air quality, water quality, and vector (collected in just few spots so it can not represent overall area condition)
• The recording of many disease case based on vary characteristic and age group cause some difficulties in analysis
• Existing data have not been optimally processed and analyzed
• From the (limited) available data, the trend of climate variability in the incidence of disease is not 'consistent'
SURVEILLANCE SYSTEM
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MODEL DEVELOPMENT
MODEL APPLICATION
Identifikasi Risiko
Early survey in several provinces • Climate • Air quality • Water quality and
quantity • Vector borne
disease • Digestive tract • Respiratory tract • Nutritional
problem
BASELINE DATA
• Surveillance • Adaptation • Health service • Environmental
health efforts • IVM • quick response • Emergency
response etc.
• Surveillance • Adaptation • Health service • Environmental
health efforts • IVM • Quick response • Emergency
response etc.
• Effort • Impact etc.
EVALUATION
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EPIDEMIOLOGICAL SURVEILLANCE
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Conceptual Framework
F
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A
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FOLLOW UP
ANALYSIS & DATA INTERPRETATION weekly
DATA MANAGEMENT weekly
REPORTING
DATA SOURCES Recording and reporting
( weekly)
DATA COLLECTION weekly
• Diseases Infectious Diseases 1 Malaria 2 DHF 3 Diarrhea 4 Pneumonia 5 ILI
6 Non Comm.Diseases
Risk factors 7. Rainfall 8. Temperature 9. Humidity
Risk factors 1. Malnutrition 2. Vector 3. Sea rise level 4. Disaster
Result 1 Graphic 2 Distribution 3 Trend 4 Mapping (GIS)
Subdit Surveillance BMKG
Community Health Centre Health Distrct Office Subdit Surveillance Loka BTKL BMKG Station Miniistry of Env.
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1) The regions of endemic diseases and specific health problems
2) Regionally 'vulnerable' (National board of climate change)
3) Areas where the EWARS program has been running
Consideration in determining surveillance pilot
project on the health impact of climate change
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www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
www.pusat3.litbang.depkes.go.id
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Overlay between malaria cases and rainfall in Pesawaran District 2010-2013
Kejadian Mal Curah Hujan
CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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CENTER FOR PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION TECHNOLOGY Jalan Percetakan Negara 29 Jakarta Pusat Telp 021 42872393 Fax 021 42872392
www.litbang.depkes.go.id
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