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Preparation for Climate Change: A Hungarian Case Study

Prof. Zsolt HARNOSHead of Department

Corvinus University of BudapestDepartment of Mathematics and Informatics

International Conference on Climate ChangeHong Kong, 29-31 May 2007

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The expected consequences of climate change:

• Warming becomes stronger as global;

• Decrease of annual average precipitation;

• Increase of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.

The recent tendencies prove this hypothesis.

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OMSZChanging of yearly precipitation sum 1951-2004

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Changing of yearly average temperature 1975-2004OMSZ

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In Hungary harmful impacts and financial expenditure of hazard management due to unfavourable meteorological extremities range between 150-180 billion HUF(600-800 million EUR). This is almost 1% of the national GDP.

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A research project was organized in 2003 titled VAHAVA Changing (VÁltozás) Impact (HAtás) Response (VÁlaszadás)

The main scopes of the research programme is

• adaptation and

• response to climate change impacts.

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VAHAVA is a multi-sectoral project covering almost all main fields of economic and social sectors; e.g. nature conservation, agriculture, energetics, environmental health etc.

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The main objective of the VAHAVA project can been summarised in two points:

• Preparation of the Hungarian society and economy for a probably warmer and drier future;

• Creation of a last responding technical, financial, organisational system, which is able to prevent, or handle the damaging effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme weather events.

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The main characteristics of VAHAVA methodology:

• large-scale system synthesis,

• interdisciplinary and multisectoral approach,

• broad spectrum partnership relations.

Over for hundred researchers and other experts participated in the implementation of the project.

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The most highlighted recommendations for decision makers launched by VAHAVA”:

1. Establishment of national climate policy integrated to present social, economic and environmental policies (mitigation and adaptation).

2. Attempts for political decision: a National Strategy on Climate Change approved by the Parliament of Hungary.

3. Establishment of National Hazard Management Fund with both government and public participation integrating assurance activities.

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4. Education, extension and training issues that enable the population to prevent, or handle the damaging effects of foreseen, or unexpected extreme weather events.

5. Priorities in funding of scientific research and development regarding the field of climate change and meteorological phenomena.

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VAHAVA was finished in 2006.

The Ministry of Environmental Protection and Water Management prepares the Climate Change Strategy.

It is going to be discussed by the Hungarian Parliament in the second half of 2007.

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In 2006 and 2007 two new research projects started.

Climatic change: environment – risk – society (VAHAVA II) led by the Corvinus University of Budapest .

The main aims: research and innovation development.

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Research areas:

• regional climate modelling

• agricultural production

• agrotechnique

• land use

• risk analysis

• catastrophe management

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A new research group was formed in January 2007 supported by the Hungarian Academy of Sciences connected to KLIMA KKT.

The main research areas:

• human health

• animal health

• biodiversity

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Some results from the agricultural modelling

The scope of the research:

• crop modelling,

• risk analysis,

• adaptation strategy.

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The factors of the adaptation strategy are the following:

• new varieties (adaptation to new vegetation periods, resistance, water-use, etc.),

• new agrotechnics,• land use,• risk reducing techniques,• catastrophe analysis, elaboration of an

adaptation strategy,• socio-economic consequences.

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Thank you for your attention!