Planning for Climate Change

Climate science in the public interest

Lara Whitely BinderClimate Impacts GroupCenter for Science in the Earth SystemJoint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and OceanUniversity of Washington

June 19, 2007Multi-State Working Group Climate Change Workshop

Current NOAA Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessment (RISA) Teams

• Provides detailed description of why and how to prepare for climate change at the local, regional, and state scale

• Collaboration between UW Climate Impacts Group, King County, Washington, and ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability

Reasons why “waiting it out” is not an option

Guidelines for identifying, reviewing and applying scientific information on climate impacts in your region

Common barriers to planning for climate change – and their antidotes

Assessing sensitivity, adaptability, and vulnerability to climate impacts

Strategies for developing and maintaining interest and support for planning

Strategies for reviewing current policies and procedures for implementing adaptive responses

Content includes

Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and State Governments

• Significant climate change impacts are projected, and the impacts expected within the next few decades are largely unavoidable.

• Decisions with long-term impacts are being made every day. Today’s choices will shape tomorrow’s vulnerabilities.

• Significant time is required to motivate and develop adaptive capacity, and to implement changes

• Increasing evidence that it will cost more to retrofit for climate resilience than to build it in in the first place.

Why Adaptive Planning?

“Adaptation is not one activity or decision, but rather a continuous set of activities, actions, decisions, and attitudes undertaken by individuals, groups, and governments.”

-- Adger et al. 2005

What Is Adaptive Planning?

…with the purpose of

Increasing community and ecosystem resilience to climate change impacts

Climate resilience involves taking proactive steps to reduce the risks associated with known climate change impacts while increasing your capacity (or an ecosystem’s capacity) to quickly recover from, or adapt to, those impacts that cannot be avoided or anticipated at this time.

What Do We Mean By Resilient?

Planning for Climate Change

• Step 1: Build your capacity to plan for climate change

• Step 2: Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Step 3: Develop your preparedness plan

• Step 4: Implement your preparedness plan

• Step 5: Measure your progress and re-evaluate

Step 1: Build Your Capacity

• Collect and review basic information on climate change impacts to your region and community

• Identify your (preliminary) priority planning areas

• Identify key stakeholders for planning, implementation

• Build internal and external support for climate change preparedness.

• Identify who will do this work and create your climate change preparedness “team”

• With your team, identify your goals for building climate resilience and the preparedness planning process

How Do You Prioritize Planning Areas?

This question will be answered by balancing many factors:

• What are the challenges facing your community?

• How many of these challenges are affected directly or indirectly by climate and climate-related events? e.g., drought, extreme heat, extreme precipitation, storm surge, flooding, forest fires

• What is your community’s risk tolerance for the projected impacts?

• Which impacts could have high financial cost?

• (After the vulnerability assessment is complete) Which areas are most vulnerable to climate change?

Potential Participants in a Global Warming Adaptation Team

Department/Program Areas

Agriculture Planning and zoning

Economic development Public health

Emergency management Stormwater management

Fire Transportation

Flood control Wastewater treatment

Natural resources / environmental protection

Water supply

Parks and recreation

Other Potential Team Members

Business community Non-profit organizations

Consultants Science advisor(s)

Native American Tribes State and federal agencies

Neighboring governments

General Goals in Planning for Climate Change

• Improve community awareness of and preparedness for global warming impacts.

• Build recognition of a changing climate into policies, regulations, programs, etc.

• Reverse trends that increase vulnerability to climate.

• Increase the robustness of long term climate-sensitive decisions and investments.

• Increase the flexibility of vulnerable managed systems.

• Enhance the adaptability of vulnerable natural systems.

Planning for Climate Change

• Step 1: Build your capacity to plan for climate change

• Step 2: Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Step 3: Develop your preparedness plan

• Step 4: Implement your preparedness plan

• Step 5: Measure your progress and re-evaluate

Identify Vulnerabilities

• Create an inventory of government operations, services, and major infrastructure related to your priority planning area(s) that may be affected by climate change.

• Continue compiling best available science on climate change impacts to your priority planning area(s)

 • Identify how sensitive your priority planning area(s) are to

climate and how much flexibility you have to adapt to those impacts (this is your vulnerability assessment)

 • Continue building support for planning by sharing the results with

your internal and external stakeholders

• The resource is currently affected by changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level (i.e., the resource is exposed);

• There are limiting factors likely to be affected by climate change (e.g., soil moisture)

• The resource is at the southern end of its range;

• The resource or system is already under stress; and/or

• Demand for the resource is likely to increase with climate change.

Qualities That Influence Sensitivity

Qualities That Limit Adaptive Capacity

• The resource is already stressed from natural and human causes in ways that limit adaptation to future climate change (e.g., PNW salmon and degraded habitat; water supply and population growth);

• The resource’s ability to adapt is physically limited (e.g., coastal wetlands, reservoirs);

• Management of the resource is highly fragmented; and/or

• The policies, etc. affecting a resource are inflexible to projected changes (see “red flags”).

Policy “Red Flags”

• Policies that do not allow regular re-evaluation and adjustment in accordance with changing conditions

• Policies that require planning based strictly on the past, or pin certain decisions/triggers to certain periods or seasonal patterns

• Policies reinforcing trends that increase vulnerability or reduce adaptability (e.g., development along flood plains)

Characteristics of policies governing climate-sensitive resources that can limit adaptability:

Planning for Climate Change

• Step 1: Build your capacity to plan for climate change

• Step 2: Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Step 3: Develop your preparedness plan

• Step 4: Implement your preparedness plan

• Step 5: Measure your progress and re-evaluate

Step 3: Develop Your Plan

• Using your vulnerability assessment as a guide, update and finalize the preliminary list of priority planning area(s) created in Step #1

• Identify options for managing climate change impacts in your priority planning area(s)

 

• Prioritize and select your preparedness options

 

• Continue building support for planning by sharing the results with your internal and external stakeholders

Modify existing policies, practices, and procedures

Change zoning regulationsUpdate long-range land use planning

(e.g., habitat preservation)Implement conservation programsCreate tax incentivesChange building codes/design standardsModify utility ratesInsitutionalize process of reviewing

climate inormation

Build new or upgrade existing infrastructure

Expand capacity of storm sewer systemsImprove flood dikesWater supply system intertiesWater reuse systems

Improve community awareness and understanding

Public outreach/organizational “inreach”Partnership building with other

communities/organizations

General Options for Planning

• Risk and uncertainty are (and always will be) a part of all decision-making exercises

• Implement “no regrets” / “low regrets” strategies– “No regrets” (or “win-win”) strategies provide benefits today

as well as in the future (e.g., conservation program)

– “Low regrets” strategies provide benefits at relatively little cost or risk (e.g., adding 10% more reservoir capacity in anticipation of climate change impacts)

• Modeling to consider “what if” scenarios

Developing Strategies with Imperfect Information

Planning for Climate Change

• Step 1: Build your capacity to plan for climate change

• Step 2: Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Step 3: Develop your preparedness plan

• Step 4: Implement your preparedness plan

• Step 5: Measure your progress and re-evaluate

Planning for Climate Change

• Step 1: Build your capacity to plan for climate change

• Step 2: Identify your community’s vulnerabilities to climate change

• Step 3: Develop your preparedness plan

• Step 4: Implement your preparedness plan

• Step 5: Measure your progress and re-evaluate

Step 5: Measure and Re-evaluate

• Monitor implementation of your preparedness plan

• Watch for developments in climate change science and impacts assessment that may be relevant to your community

 • Periodically re-evaluate and adjust your plan as needed in light

of advances in climate change science, changes in your community, and other factors that may affect your preparedness activities. – SET UP A PROCESS FOR DOING THIS

 • Maintain support for planning by sharing your results with your

internal and external stakeholders

More information on PNW climate impacts and planning for climate change is available from

The Climate Impacts Group

www.cses.washington.ed/cig

Lara Whitely Binder

lwb123@u.washington.edu