The Climate Impacts The Climate Impacts Group:Group: Climate Information and Decision-making in the Pacific Northwest

Lara Whitely BinderCenter for Science in the Earth

SystemClimate Impacts Group

University of Washington

September 22, 2004Climate Science in the

Public Interest

The Climate Impacts Group

Water Resources

Aquatic Resources

Forests

Coasts

[Human Health]

[Agriculture]

Climate Variability• past variations and their impacts

• ability of institutions to respond to extremes

Climate Change• regional consequences of global warming

• adaptation/vulnerability to climate change

•Increase regional resilience to the impacts of climate variability and change

•Produce science useful to the decision-making communityO

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How Does CIG Support Planning for Climate Variability and Change?

Supporting Adaptation Through… …Research

Investigating spatially-relevant sensitivity to climate variability and change. Ex: ENSO impacts on PNW snowpack.

Provides the foundation for decision-support and outreach activities

…Decision-support tools Designed to facilitate use of climate information in

operations and planning

…Outreach Designed to provide regular dialogue between the

CIG and the stakeholder community

New CIG Web SiteNew CIG Web Site

CIG web site redesigned to better serve as a planning resource

Includes information on:

PNW climate variability and change

Climate impacts Forecasts and planning

tools Meetings and workshops CIG publications

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

Supporting Adaptation: Decision-support Tools

CIG Decision-Support Tools: Climate Variability

Seasonal climate outlook

Long-lead (1 year) climate-based streamflow forecast for the Columbia River and Snake River systems. Expanding to western U.S.

Six-month lead time reservoir forecasts tools (under development)

Oregon Coastal Coho salmon survival forecasts

Extreme events forecasting

Designed to help with management on seasonal to interannual time scales. Main “products”:

Seasonal Climate Outlook

Interpreting global ENSO forecasts and PDO state for PNW (temperature, precipitation).

Excerpt of the Fall 2004 - Winter 2005 forecast:Tropical Pacific now:  The tropical Pacific has been slightly warmer than normal for several months, and is expected to continue so, with a chance that a weak El Niño event will occur this winter.  (See the Climate Prediction Center's discussion.)What will it mean for the Northwest in coming months? With little forecasting help from the tropical Pacific, the odds for  precipitation are  roughly normal for the next year.  The odds for temperature are also normal until winter, when above-average temperatures become more likely - a reflection largely of recent trends toward warmer weather (e.g., 8 of the last 10 winters have

been at least 1°F warmer than "normal" in Washington state).

Available on CIG, WA State Climatologist web sites (http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/cloutlook.shtml).

Lets resource managers begin hedging risks based on historically observed responses to ENSO and PDO.

Long-lead Streamflow Long-lead Streamflow ForecastsForecasts

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/waterfc/oneyearstreamflow.shtml-- Forecast may affect reservoir mgmt,

hydro production, instream flow management choices

-- Scenarios available for western US. Updated monthly.

-- Scenarios available on the CIG’s web site.0

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Warm ENSO Only

Developing six-month forecasts for municipal water supplies in the Puget Sound area using NCEP forecasts

Streamflow forecast Reservoir storage forecast Demand forecasts

April Forecast Streamflows on Cedar River at Chester Morse

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April Forecast: 4.29-10.22.03

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Municipal Reservoir Forecasts

Construct Forecasting Systems: Salmon Returns

Coastal Ocean Conditions

Sea surface temperatures

Sea level

Nearshore winds

Oregon coho

salmon survival

SpringFall Winter Summer

FisheryRun-size forecast

(using obs’d conditions)Run-size forecast (using SST forecast)

Plankton surveysJack returns

Harvest & allocation

decisions (February)

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/orcohofc.shtml

Experimental 7-14 day extreme weather event risk assessment forecasts available for the PNW. Available for region or by specific stations.

Based on observed relationships between the probability of certain extreme weather events in the US and variations in Pacific North American atmospheric circulation pattern. Ex: PNW locations 2-4 times more likely to experience an

extremely high daily maximum temperature on positive vs. negative PNA days, depending on location

Forecasts include probabilities for: Extreme warm/cold days, days with extremely high precip,

heavy snowfall events

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/extreme.shtml

Extreme Events Forecasting

CIG Decision-Support Tools: Climate Change

Climate change impact scenarios

Client-based research consultancies

Climate change streamflow scenarios tool

Technical planning assistance

Designed to help managers evaluate and respond to projected climate change impacts. Research focused on the 2020s and 2040s. Main “products”:

Temperature and Precipitation Temperature and Precipitation ScenariosScenarios

Projected changes in average annual PNW temperature and precipitation for the decades of the 2020s and 2040s

Providing range of projections allows for risk management (i.e., “what if” scenarios)

2020s Temperature Precipitation

Low + 0.9 °F + 2 %

Mean + 2.7 °F + 7%High + 4.7 °F + 14 %

2040s Temperature Precipitation

Low + 2.7 °F - 3 %

Mean + 4.1 °F + 7%High + 5.8°F + 14 %

Available on the CIG’s web site: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccscenarios.shtml

Based on an average of 8 global climate models driven by an increase in equivalent CO2 of 1% per year. Benchmarked to the decade of the 1990s.

Changes in April 1 snowpack available at basin and sub-basin levels

Scenarios for April 1 SnowpackScenarios for April 1 Snowpack

Current Climate

-44% -58%

“2020s” (+3°F) “2040s” (+4.5°F)

Contact the CIG for availability

Client-based Research Client-based Research ConsultanciesConsultancies

City of Portland (2002) Tualatin River Basin (2004) Seattle Public Utilities (2004)

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Climate change impacts on water

demand18%

Climate change impacts on water

supply16%

Impact of population growth on demand

(no climate change)66%

Climate Change Streamflow Climate Change Streamflow Scenario Tool for the Columbia Scenario Tool for the Columbia

River BasinRiver BasinWater policy workshops have highlighted the need to inject climate change information into existing river basin planning activities and to provide free access to streamflow scenarios.

Available at: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/ccstreamflowtool/sft.shtml

Partners:

Northwest Power and Conservation Council

Idaho Dept of Water Resources

Supporting Adaptation: Outreach

Promotes regional understanding of climate impacts in PNW water resource management. Activities include:

Workshops and meetings Presentations and briefings One-on-one technical assistance Work with the local media Web site development and maintenance

Provides opportunity for feedback from the stakeholder community

Outreach

Technical Assistance for Watershed Planning

Building a foundation and forging relationships with state staff and local planning units

Developing language for use in planning documentation Developing GIS-based maps of watershed-scale impacts

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/watershedplan.shtml

Information about climate variability and change need to be translated for and delivered to the watershed level.

Initial focus on WA; expanding to OR, ID

Meetings and WorkshopsMeetings and Workshops Sector-specific meetings with technical resource staff

and senior decision makers:

Climate Impacts on Salmon Management and Recovery in the Columbia River Basin (9.21.04)

Fall climate and water forecast meetings (WA/OR and ID)

Climate and water policy meetings (2001, 2002)

2005: expansion of salmon and coastal work

CIG available to give presentations at meetings, agencies, etc.

http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/outreach/workshops.shtml

Mapping PNW Climate: Mapping PNW Climate: GIS ToolGIS Tool CIG is developing a GIS tool for delivering sub-

regionally based information on climate and climate impacts

Mapping past and future patterns of PNW climate. Also mapping of future climate scenarios.

Data layers include:

Vegetation/Land Cover

Soils Ownership Political Boundaries

Elevation Hydrography (Rivers/Lakes) Coastline Watershed Boundaries

Early GIS ProductsEarly GIS Products

• Available for Columbia River basin

• Streamflow and snowpack maps being developed for Washington State watersheds on pilot basis

• Will be available on CIG website

CIG is available to assist in planning activities

Research

• General as well as consultancy-based research

Decision-support products

• Forecasts

• Climate change scenarios

Outreach

• Technical assistant

• Meetings and workshops

For More Information or Assistance….

Please contact

Lara Whitely BinderUW Climate Impacts Group

206-616-5349whitelybinder@yahoo.com

www.cses.washington.edu/cigClimate Science in the

Public Interest