petroleum in the apac region - openroomevents.com
TRANSCRIPT
PowerPoint PresentationWWW.acapma.com.au
A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
petroleum marketing…
ACAPMA represents…
>> 110 wholesale petroleum distribution companies • This includes all the major oil companies as well as large independent wholesalers like Puma
Energy and Liberty
>> 3500 petrol convenience outlets • 7 Eleven (400+), Puma Energy (200+), all major oil companies and
independent retailers (8 outlets on average)
>> $48 billion in wholesale fuel sales
>> $18 billion in retail sales
>> 3.4 million customers per day
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Led by China, developing APAC countries lead in economic growth to
2020 while the US and Europe see slow recovery after 2013…
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product to 2020
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, February 2014 update
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Medium Non-OPEC supply is sufficient to meet the lion’s share of
growth in world demand…
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
OPEC’s role quenching world’s thirst for oil is temporarily reduced over
the next decade, due to rapid growth in LTO & unconventional oil…
Change in oil production in selected countries 2012-2035
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Pushed by the developing powerhouses in APAC, world oil demand
reaches 101 mb/d by 2035…
Growth in world oil demand by region 2012-2035
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Nontransport Petrochem Transport
Global oil demand through to 2035 is built on strength in transport
and petrochemical sectors…
Growth in world oil demand by sector 2012-2035
m b
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Road freight accounts for nearly 45 per cent of transport oil demand
growth with developing APAC contributing two-thirds of this…
World oil demand for transport by sub-sector
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
The worldwide passenger fleet is projected to expand from 900 million
in 2012 to over 1.7 billion by 2035…
Passenger vehicle fleet growth by region
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Crudes to Asia will be mainly medium gravity and via long haul supply
chains…
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
China contributes 70 per cent of total oil demand growth in APAC
region…
0
1
2
3
4
5
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Asian gasoline will be pushed back from traditional markets in the US
and the Middle East…
Gasoline balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
WWW.acapma.com.au
Gasoline trade will be mostly intra-regional targeting SE Asia and
Australia…
Gasoline balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-600
-300
0
300
600
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
India
Singapore
China
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
If not China, all eyes will be set on Greater European diesel deficits…
Diesel balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-600
-300
0
300
-500
0
500
1000
-600
-300
0
300
600
WWW.acapma.com.au
Northeast area revitalisation
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Northeast area revitalisation
East Central
West Northwest
*freight movement is measured by tonne/km
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
China’s taste for SUVs/MPVs has yet to translate into larger capacity
engines…
0
2
4
6
8
10
Displacement <1.0lt
1.0lt to 1.6lt 1.6Lt to 2.0Lt 2.0lt to 2.5lt 2.5lt to 3.0lt 3.0lt
2010 2011 2012
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
And there is no end in sight to China’s refinery investments…
Drivers for China’s investments
>> Meet oil demand • China’s oil demand rises on average at 4
per cent per annum up to 2025, reaching 14 mb/d by 2025
>> Meet specifications • China is under significant environmental
pressure to push fuel specifications forward. Euro V equivalent spec is expected to be enforced by 2018
>> Self-sufficiency on transport fuels
>> Gain economies of scale
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
Current additions to capacity has seen increased gasoline and diesel exports
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Australia and Japan continue closures…
Rest of APAC investments in mb/d, 2013-2018
Source: Wood Mackenzie, view of “Firm” investments
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
India
WWW.acapma.com.au
growth driven by a strong economy…
Key economic highlights
WWW.acapma.com.au
additional importation…
Source: KPMG
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
There has been a decade or more of constant evolution in the
Australian and New Zealand markets…
Timeline of change in ANZAC market in the last decade
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
The drive of Coles and Woolworths into the retail sector has attributed
to a reduction of retail service stations…
Australian service station ownership
Source: ACCC, Monitoring of the Australian petroleum industry
Number of sites against ave volume per site Percentage retail sites by operator: 2011−13
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Greater Europe: diesel deficits requiring robust importation
Japan: refinery closures and questions over nuclear power
Middle East: growing refinery capacity
Singapore: recovery in bunker fuel and expanded storage
India: price deregulation and expanded private refining
Australia: further refinery closures and structural change
China: refinery investment, price regulation and limiting of exports
Indonesia: price deregulation and position in regional storage
Whilst influenced by global developments, APAC planning and
development will change regional dynamics…
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
NIC MOULIS CONTACT DETAILS: E. [email protected] M. +61419747071
A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
petroleum marketing…
ACAPMA represents…
>> 110 wholesale petroleum distribution companies • This includes all the major oil companies as well as large independent wholesalers like Puma
Energy and Liberty
>> 3500 petrol convenience outlets • 7 Eleven (400+), Puma Energy (200+), all major oil companies and
independent retailers (8 outlets on average)
>> $48 billion in wholesale fuel sales
>> $18 billion in retail sales
>> 3.4 million customers per day
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Led by China, developing APAC countries lead in economic growth to
2020 while the US and Europe see slow recovery after 2013…
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Global Outlook for Growth of Gross Domestic Product to 2020
Source: The Conference Board Global Economic Outlook 2014, February 2014 update
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Medium Non-OPEC supply is sufficient to meet the lion’s share of
growth in world demand…
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
OPEC’s role quenching world’s thirst for oil is temporarily reduced over
the next decade, due to rapid growth in LTO & unconventional oil…
Change in oil production in selected countries 2012-2035
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Pushed by the developing powerhouses in APAC, world oil demand
reaches 101 mb/d by 2035…
Growth in world oil demand by region 2012-2035
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Nontransport Petrochem Transport
Global oil demand through to 2035 is built on strength in transport
and petrochemical sectors…
Growth in world oil demand by sector 2012-2035
m b
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Road freight accounts for nearly 45 per cent of transport oil demand
growth with developing APAC contributing two-thirds of this…
World oil demand for transport by sub-sector
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
The worldwide passenger fleet is projected to expand from 900 million
in 2012 to over 1.7 billion by 2035…
Passenger vehicle fleet growth by region
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Crudes to Asia will be mainly medium gravity and via long haul supply
chains…
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
China contributes 70 per cent of total oil demand growth in APAC
region…
0
1
2
3
4
5
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
Asian gasoline will be pushed back from traditional markets in the US
and the Middle East…
Gasoline balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
WWW.acapma.com.au
Gasoline trade will be mostly intra-regional targeting SE Asia and
Australia…
Gasoline balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
-600
-300
0
300
600
-500
-250
0
250
500
-500
-250
0
250
500
India
Singapore
China
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
If not China, all eyes will be set on Greater European diesel deficits…
Diesel balance, kb/d
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013 & Wood Mackenzie’s product market service
-600
-300
0
300
-500
0
500
1000
-600
-300
0
300
600
WWW.acapma.com.au
Northeast area revitalisation
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Source: Wood Mackenzie
Northeast area revitalisation
East Central
West Northwest
*freight movement is measured by tonne/km
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
China’s taste for SUVs/MPVs has yet to translate into larger capacity
engines…
0
2
4
6
8
10
Displacement <1.0lt
1.0lt to 1.6lt 1.6Lt to 2.0Lt 2.0lt to 2.5lt 2.5lt to 3.0lt 3.0lt
2010 2011 2012
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
And there is no end in sight to China’s refinery investments…
Drivers for China’s investments
>> Meet oil demand • China’s oil demand rises on average at 4
per cent per annum up to 2025, reaching 14 mb/d by 2025
>> Meet specifications • China is under significant environmental
pressure to push fuel specifications forward. Euro V equivalent spec is expected to be enforced by 2018
>> Self-sufficiency on transport fuels
>> Gain economies of scale
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013
Current additions to capacity has seen increased gasoline and diesel exports
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Australia and Japan continue closures…
Rest of APAC investments in mb/d, 2013-2018
Source: Wood Mackenzie, view of “Firm” investments
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
India
WWW.acapma.com.au
growth driven by a strong economy…
Key economic highlights
WWW.acapma.com.au
additional importation…
Source: KPMG
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
There has been a decade or more of constant evolution in the
Australian and New Zealand markets…
Timeline of change in ANZAC market in the last decade
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
PETROFORUM 2014, JAKARTA
The drive of Coles and Woolworths into the retail sector has attributed
to a reduction of retail service stations…
Australian service station ownership
Source: ACCC, Monitoring of the Australian petroleum industry
Number of sites against ave volume per site Percentage retail sites by operator: 2011−13
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
Greater Europe: diesel deficits requiring robust importation
Japan: refinery closures and questions over nuclear power
Middle East: growing refinery capacity
Singapore: recovery in bunker fuel and expanded storage
India: price deregulation and expanded private refining
Australia: further refinery closures and structural change
China: refinery investment, price regulation and limiting of exports
Indonesia: price deregulation and position in regional storage
Whilst influenced by global developments, APAC planning and
development will change regional dynamics…
PETROLEUM IN THE APAC REGION: A 2020 VISION
WWW.acapma.com.au
NIC MOULIS CONTACT DETAILS: E. [email protected] M. +61419747071