peter verweij

1http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI

www.sensor-ip.org428/05/2010 http://siat.cgi-systems.nl/SiatGUI/

Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)an engineering perspective

Peter Verweij

Alterra, Wageningen-UR


SENSOR project

Develop cross sectoral ex-ante Impact Assessment Tools to support decision making on policies related multifunctional land use in EU

Consortium with 39 Research Institutions

15 EU Countries

China, Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay

>100 researchers

Project duration: Dec 2004 – May 2009

Regional scale with European coverage

Constraint: use existing pan-European data

Main product: SIAT for discussion support


SIAT focus

EU – Impact Assessment

Ex-ante SIA is a procedure accompanying policy development at European Commission. It is to analyse sustainability impacts and side effects of an intended policy option

Identify the problem

Define the objectives

Develop main policy options

Analyse their impacts

Compare the options

Outline policy monitoring and evaluation


Impact assessment

Ex-ante analysis of impacts of potential policies

Involves determining economic, environmental and social impacts of policy options

Possible

future

Is defined

by a

Outlook

Baseline

scenario

Policy option

(defined by policy

instruments)

Policy

objective

Can be reached by

several

Policy

Indicators (scoring varies per

spatial entity)

drives drives

Impact

Assessment

Concerns a

Compares

Carried out for a

(number of)


Policy

Potential policies are grouped in policy cases around a number of central themes that are important in multi-functional land use

Bio-energy

Promotion of production and consumption

Bio-diversity Conservation of nature areas and in relation to agriculture,

forestry, tourism, etc.

Common Agricultural Policy financial reformContinuation vs promotion of knowledge economy

Forest strategy


Outlook

Extrapolating scenarios for exogenous parameters (e.g. climate change, or population growth)

Expert judgement to tweak possible trends

Baseline A

Baseline B

Baseline C

FuturePresentPast


Drivers to indicators (1/3)

Conversion in SIAT system by: Look up indicator values in database Modeling

(meta) model Knowledge rule Chain of models

Mixture of the above

ConvertDrivers

(e.g. policy,

technological innovations,

Climate change, population growth)

Spatial explicit indicators

(quantitative and/or

qualitative)


Land use

changes

[meta model]

Impact

indicator

[knowledge rule]

Static

maps

[database]

Land use

function

s

[model]

Convert

IndicatorsDrivers

Drivers to indicators (2/3)

• Summaries of the most important societal, environmental en economical aspects of a region• contain region specific sustainability limits per indicator (standards, thresholds,

targets,…)


Drivers to indicators (3/3)meta-model sources

Multi-sectoral land use models Sectoral land use models

Na

tio

na

l N

uts

2/3

1

x1

km

2

NEMISIS

CLUE

Sectoral models(CAPRI

EFISCENEtc.)


SIAT requirements

Interactive web based tool to estimate the possible consequences of different policy assumptions on land use on sustainability within different images of the future. Identify areas that are sensitive to particular policies Identify regional differences and analyse causes look at potential ‘trade-offs’ Examine the concept of sustainability tolerance limits undertake all analysis dynamically Be able to compare different scenarios

Flexible in terms of: New policies / baselines / target times Regionalisations (extent and resolution)

Indicators


System architecture

Simulation services

SIAT user interface

Resources

(e.g. factsheets)

Messaging

Map services

MessagingMessaging

OpenMI Persistence

Spatial

database

Model

OpenMI

Model

OpenMI

Model

OpenMI


Startup screen


Background: factsheet example


Define your simulation (1/3)


Determine impacts at EU levelRadar chart: look at trade offs


Analyse impactssingle member state

Europe


Analyse impacts: exampleLand use functions of several cluster regions


Analyse impacts: exampleIndicators of several NutsX regions


Limit sensitivity


Drill down Land Use Function


Compare simulations


Summary

Discussion support

Result analysis (e.g. find trade-offs, regional differences)

Describe assumptions (factsheets)

Explore causal links (drill down and factsheets)

Flexible component based framework

Policies (policy case, baseline, policy instruments, indicators,

regionalisations, target times, factsheets, etc.)

Visualisations

Data / models

Integration of different model types (present and future models)

Examine concept of sustainability limits using LUF approach


End of slideshow


Baseline: business as usual


Policy case: CAP reform

peter verweij

Technology

evaluation http

simulations http

land use function http

policy instruments

discussion support http

policy casesaround

policy potential policies

policy development