Adaptation Studies: Take it to the next level

Robert Schneider

Organization of my presentation

• How have recent adaptation studies been structured?

• Their adaptation recommendations for the agricultural sector.

• Lack of policy-relevant detail.

• Tendency to treat adaptation as an engineering problem. Failure to address the critical institutional dimension.

• Need to do better.

Experience based on World Bank Adaptation Study and the Brazil “Mini-Stern study.

• World Bank Economics of Adaptation

– Joined Sector studies at Global level. All sector studies based on models. Ag sector linked climate model to a crop growth model to a Computable General Equilibrium Agricultural Trade Model (CGE)at the world level (IFPRI conducted the study). IFPRI looked at 2 adaptation strategies. Ag R&D, AG research

7 Country Case Studies

• Bangladesh

• Bolivia

• Ethiopia

• Ghana

• Mozambique

• Samoa

• Vietnam

Extremely Model Intensive

• All but Bolivia uses a CGE model to estimate economy-wide effects of climate change and adaptation measures.

• All but Samoa used a crop model to estimate climate effect on yields. DSSAT, AQUACROP, CliCrop

• All but Samoa incorporated some kind of runoff model

• Several had climate-road models • Samoa modeled cyclone intensity probability

densities

Typical country study structure

Mini-Stern Study (Margulis et al)

• Used HadRM3P, regional model downscaled to 50kmX50 km cells (Marengo)

• CGE model for economy-wide effects of climate change (Haddad) and

• Water balance for 12 basins (Salati) • Energy study/model (COPPE, Schaeffer) • Crop model Climate risk zoning system (Hilton,

Assad) • Land allocation model (IPEA, Feres) • Coastal zone study. (COPPE, Rosman)

Adaptation recommendations from these studies

• All recommended adaptation of cultivars through genetic breeding. How? Only Hilton and Assed had advice.

• All recommend increased irrigation. Public or private? How to manage?

• Most recommend improved drainage. How to maintain?

• All recommend improved water management/river basin planning. How to achieve?

• Most recommend improving extension service. How? • Several recommend improving rural education. How?

Why are these studies not more policy useful?

• Focus on calculating climate losses leads to model-intensive methods.

• Modelers have models ready. But the models too often determine the questions that are asked.

• Models are excellent for imposing discipline on our thinking, but often ignore complicated issues of human behavior.

• We cannot let models continue to prevent us from addressing issues which are critical to a balanced analysis.

Institutional Issues Critical to Address Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector I

• What is the best climate adaptation agricultural research strategy? Should address adapted cultivars, and climate-driven agricultural pest and phytosanitary issues (example of mountain pine beetle—destroyed 15 million hectares of pine forest in British Colombia, due too unusually hot, dry summers and mild winters).

• Does EMBRAPA’s research program constitute an adequate adaptation response?

Institutional Issues Critical to Address Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector II

• Integrated Water Resources Management. Is integrated water resource management in Brazil on track?

• Which basins are currently facing water conflicts.

• Are water conflicts being effectively managed?

• If not, why not? Are there success stories? What lessons can be learned?

Institutional Issues Critical to Address Adaptation in the Agricultural Sector III

• Are there effective institutions in place to get new technology and innovation to all classes of farmers?

• Who receives technical assistance and who doesn’t. Are there good technical assistance models in Brazil—especially for medium and small produces? If so can they be scaled up?

The adaptation challenge

• The adaptation challenge is to create adaptive and flexible institutions, and to finance them. – Institutions that have the capacity to adapt their

agenda in a timely manner as climate signals get more certain.

– Institutions that find the most effective balance between provision of public goods and providing incentives to the private sector, and

– Institutions that can effectively solve collective action problems (water management, pest control, agricultural extension)

We need to stop treating adaptation as if it is an engineering problem. It is a small engineering problem and a very large collective action/institutional problem. It is a development problem that takes on added importance with a changing climate. We will miss the chance to make a difference if we do not have the courage to take on the messiness of the institutional dimensions of adaptation.

Thank You

Biome Temperature Precipitation Observations

Amazon +3° to +3.5° - 25% to -30% More drastic changes with continued

deforestation, +4°, -40% precip., longer

dry seasons/dry spells, more frequent

droughts.

Caatinga (semi-

arid Northeast)

+1.5° to +2.5° - 25% to -35% Regional water balance deteriorates

severely, river flow drastically reduced, sea

level rise

Cerrado

(savanna in

Center-West)

+3° to +3.5° - 20% to -35% Regional water balance deteriorates,

reduced surface runoff. More irregular

and extreme rainfall.

Atlantic

Forest –

Southeast

and South

+1.5° to +2° +15% to

+20%

Improved water balance, increased

frequency of floods, possibly cyclones, sea

level rise

Pampas

(South)

+1° to +1.5° +15% to

+20%

Improved water balance, increase in

extreme rainfall events, cyclones, heat

waves

Report by the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change, September 2013. http://www.pbmc.coppe.ufrj.br/documentos/MCTI_PBMC_Sumario%20Executivo%204_Finalizado.pdf

The Fifth Assessment of the IPCC An extremely honest, careful assessment of the state

of climate science

State of the Art of Projections (AR5)

• The simulation of large-scale patterns of precipitation has improved

somewhat since the AR4, although models continue to perform less well for precipitation than for surface temperature. The spatial pattern correlation between modelled and observed annual mean precipitation has increased from 0.77 for models available at the time of the AR4 to 0.82 for current models.

• At regional scales, precipitation is not simulated as well, and the

assessment remains difficult owing to observational uncertainties.

• Projected changes in soil moisture and surface run off are not robust in many regions.

• There is low confidence in projections of the collapse of large areas of tropical and/or boreal forests.

Extreme weather and climate events: Global-scale assessment of recent observed changes, human contribution to the changes, and projected further changes for the early (2016–2035) and late (2081–2100) 21st century. Bold indicates where the AR5 (black) provides a revised global-scale assessment from the SREX (blue) or AR4 (red). Projections for early 21st century were not provided in previous assessment reports. Projections in the AR5 are relative to the reference period of 1986–2005, and use the new RCP scenarios.

Implications for agriculture

• Warmer days and nights.