outthinker speech to fortune gazelles growth summit

2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net

Gazelles Growth Summit

Las Vegas, NV

October 2013

Kaihan Krippendorff

www.kaihan.net


Ray Kroc


Mohammad Yunus


Tata


Thomas Edison


Betsy Johnson


Richard Branson

Oprah Winfrey

Elizabeth Arden

Dhirubhai Ambani

Bill Gates Charles Revson

Henry Ford

Sōichirō Honda


Martin Luther King, Jr.

Mother Teresa

Mahatma Gandhi

Nelson Mandela

Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus

Margaret Thatcher

Benjamin Franklin


Elon MuskCEO, Tesla Motors

Tom AdamsCEO, Rosetta Stone

Mark ZuckerbergCEO, Facebook

Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post

Robert Keane CEO, Vistaprint

Wayne GattinellaCEO, WebMD

Sabrina Herrera Cofounder, Genomma Lab

Marissa MayerCEO, Yahoo

Larry PageCEO, Google

Mark VadonFounder, Blue Nile

Josh LinknerFounder, ePrize

Ann HandCEO, Project Frog

Susan LyneCEO, Gilt Groupe

Cory BookerMayor, Newark, NJ, USA

Jeff BezosFounder, Amazon.com


“First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,

then they fight you,then you win.”

Mohandas Gandhi


The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not

consider, and will not respond effectively to.

The 4th Option®


Go home

Wait

Climb the walls


How can we predictably create a 4th Option®?


Two Standard Approaches

Follow proven rules or best practices

Rules

1. Alkdjfklsdlkj2. Asdlkfj bou3. Alsk boiuoidf4. Goibjhkal dgs5. Glijgbuu gds6. gljgoiud

Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option

Option narrowing

X

XX


Objectives

Imagine and commit to realizing a different future

Imagine

Choose leverage points others overlook

Dissect

Generate more potential strategies

Expand

Choose strategies competitors will not copy

Analyze

Build buy-in for your strategy

Sell

Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process


URBN Revenue History$ Millions

Source: Bloomberg & TIAA-CREF

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

350 425 550

830 1,090

1,230

1,510

1,840 1,940

2,270 2,470


URBN Results

Industry

ANF**

URBN

5

5

13

Growth5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%)

14

12

20

Profitability 5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%)

* 5 years average as of October 2013** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalizationSource: Reuters


College students onlyUsed clothingArtists not managers in chargeManager freedomEvery store different…


Position

Process

Physicalexperience

People

PlaceProduct

PromotionPrice

The 8Ps

0 – no difference

1 – 4 year difference

2 – 5+ year difference


Survey


8P tool on www.kaihan.net


Alexandra Kosteniuk

How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”


Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory

Consciousness

Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad ???


Survey


Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory

Consciousness

Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer


Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:

Grand master Master Expert


Europe & Americas –Fairy tales

Japan – Koan

India – Puranas

China – 36 stratagems


Identifying Outthinkers

Value creation (TRS)

Revenue growth (CAGR)

(EBITDA)Profit margin


Core Research


Narratives to Find a Fourth Option

#7 Force two-front battle

#32 Create something out of nothing

#22 Move early to the next battleground

#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated

#33 Be good


Move Early to the Next Battleground22



“I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which

only the government can.”

Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)


Identify and move early to the next battleground.

Where is the next battleground?- Technological trends?- Social shifts?- Geographies?- Buying patterns?- Needs?

22Move Early to the Next Battleground







#33 Be good


Coordinate the Uncoordinated34

2013 Outthinker LL & Kaihan Krippendorffwww.kaihan.net50



Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power.

Who would we like to coordinate?- Customers- Experts- Employees- Real estate- Regulators- Competitors- Driveways- …








#33 Be good


Force a Two-Front Battle7


7 Force a Two-Front Battle

Cloud providers

Cloud servicesRetail

“There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.”

- Jeff Bezos


7 Force a Two-Front Battle

Traditional CPA firms

ProjectsResources (Accnts)


Force a two-front battle7

Project your unique capability into a new area.

What is your unique advantage/ capability?

Into what new area could you project this?







#33 Be good


Environment

Employees

Community

Govern-ment /country

Share-holders

Customers

Be Good33

Corporation


33

59

Be Good


The Holstee Manifesto


Adopt a strategy that Benefits others.

How can you profitably benefit key stakeholders that you are not now considering?

Be good33







#33 Be good


Create Something Out of Nothing32



Julie Pickens


Ingvar Kamprad



Add a new piece the board.

What would you like to create/ add to the game?- New categories?- New occasions or needs?- New customers?- New suppliers?- New distributors?- New regulations?

Create something out of nothing32


Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net







#33 Be good

How can you project into a new sector?

What can you create?

Where is the next battleground?

Who could you coordinate?

How can you be good?


“Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.”

Napoleon Bonaparte


Make the impossible possible

Don’t build handsets

Risk of noWiFi

Customer Service toocostly

“Each of these looked like show

stoppers”

Motorola

Earlyadopter

s

No one provides service

David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com


“It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer.”

- Albert Einstein


Ray Kroc


Mohammad Yunus


Ratan Tata


Thomas Edison


Betsy Johnson


[email protected] www.kaihan.net @kaihan• Register for newsletter,

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Option®• Email me to get

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