outthinker 45 min talk for columbia alumni club ny
DESCRIPTION
A compressed, 45 minute presentation on disruptive strategic thinking we delivered for the Columbia Business School Alumni Club of New YorkTRANSCRIPT
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Your Next Winning Move
CBSACNY
New York January 23 2014
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Mohammad Yunus
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Ratan Tata
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Betsy Johnson
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Thomas Edison
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Ray Kroc
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Richard Branson
Oprah Winfrey
Elizabeth Arden
Dhirubhai Ambani
Bill Gates Charles Revson
Henry Ford
Sōichirō Honda
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Martin Luther King, Jr.
Mother Teresa
Mahatma Gandhi
Nelson Mandela
Rosa Parks Mohammad Yunus
Margaret Thatcher
Benjamin Franklin
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
“First they ignore you,then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,then you win.”
Mohandas Gandhi
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
The option beyond the obvious choices; the option others do not see, will not
consider, and will not respond effectively to.
The 4th Option®
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Go home
Wait
Climb the walls
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
What is your next4th Option®?
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Two Standard Approaches
Follow proven rules or best practices
Rules
1. Alkdjfklsdlkj2. Asdlkfj bou3. Alsk boiuoidf4. Goibjhkal dgs5. Glijgbuu gds6. gljgoiud
Lay out options, apply data, arrive at the optimal option
Option narrowing
X
XX
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Build buy-in for your strategy
Sell
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Personal Example
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Alexandra Kosteniuk
How Do Great Strategists See the “Winning Move?”
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
Consciousness
Phonetic loop Visuo-special sketchpad Episodic buffer
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Relative number of narratives chess players recognize:
Grand master Master Expert
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Europe & Americas –Fairy tales
Japan – Koan
India – Puranas
China – 36 stratagems
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Identifying Outthinkers
Value creation (TRS)
Revenue growth (CAGR)
(EBITDA)Profit margin
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Core Research
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
“I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which
only the government can.”
Elon Musk, founder, Space-X (2003 interview)
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Move Early to the Next Battleground22
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Identify and move early to the next battleground.
Where is the next battleground?- Technological trends?- Social shifts?- Geographies?- Buying patterns?- Needs?
22Move Early to the Next Battleground
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net49
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Combine and coordinate independent elements within your environment to orchestrate much greater power.
Who would we like to coordinate?- Customers- Experts- Employees- Real estate- Regulators- Competitors- Driveways- …
Coordinate the Uncoordinated34
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Force a Two-Front Battle7
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Cloud providers
Cloud servicesRetail
“There is no physical analog for what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Shoes
ShoesCustomer service
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
Traditional CPA firms
ProjectsResources (Accnts)
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Force a two-front battle7
Project your what you are great at into a new area.
What is your unique advantage, capability, or purpose?
Into what new area could you project this?
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Environment
Employees
Community
Govern-ment /country
Share-holders
Customers
Be Good33
Corporation
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
33
61
Be Good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
The Holstee Manifesto
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Adopt a strategy that benefits others.
What purpose/ mission/ movement would build support from stakeholders that can help you succeed?
Be good33
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Create Something Out of Nothing32
Julie Pickens
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Ingvar Kamprad
Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
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Create Something Out of Nothing32
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Add a new piece the board.
What would you like to create/ add to the game?- New categories?- New occasions or needs?- New customers?- New suppliers?- New distributors?- New regulations?
Create something out of nothing32
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Find More Stratagems at www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Narratives to Find a Fourth Option
#7 Force two-front battle
#32 Create something out of nothing
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#33 Be good
How can you project into a new sector?
What can you create?
Where is the next battleground?
Who could you coordinate?
How can you be good?
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Five Conversations: The Outthinker Process
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
“Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools.”
Napoleon Bonaparte
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Selecting your 4th Option
High
Low
Crazy ideas Winning moves
Wastes of time Tactics
Impact• How far would
this get me toward my goal?
• How long before the competition responds?
Difficult Easy
• Can we do this quickly?• Is this inexpensive?• Do we have the capability?
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Selecting your 4th Option
High
Low
Crazy ideas Winning moves
Wastes of time Tactics
Impact• How far would
this get me toward my goal?
• How long before the competition responds?
Difficult Easy
• Can we do this quickly?• Is this inexpensive?• Do we have the capability?
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Make the impossible possible
Don’t build handsets
Risk of noWiFi
Customer Service toocostly
“Each of these looked like show
stoppers”
Motorola
Earlyadopter
s
No one provides service
David Morken, CEO Bandwidth.com
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
Objectives
Imagine and commit to realizing a different future
Imagine
Choose leverage points others overlook
Dissect
Generate more potential strategies
Expand
Choose strategies competitors will not copy
Analyze
Build buy-in for your strategy
Sell
Mr. Practical Mr. Obvious Mr. Expert Mr. What Works Mr. Cog
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
www.kaihan.net
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2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
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Mohammad Yunus
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Thomas Edison
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Ratan Tata
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Ray Kroc
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Betsy Johnson
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