north carolina statewide · 9/20/2020 · medicaid is held by republicans and conservatives as...
TRANSCRIPT
North Carolina Statewide Survey Key Findings
August 26-27, 2020Sample size: 612 registered voters
Brock McCleary, President
The sample size for the survey is 612 registered voters in North Carolina and the margin of error is +/-3.96% at a 95% confidence interval, meaning that if this survey were repeated, results would not vary from the population by more than 3.96 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Responses were gathered via landline and mobile telephone interviews conducted by live callers at a professional call center. Demographics were adjusted to reflect the population from which the sample was drawn. The survey was conducted August 26-27, 2020 by Harper Polling. The total percentages of responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
28
14 13 138 6 6
3 1 17
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Coronavirus/C
OVID-19
Unemploym
ent & Jo
bs
Educatio
n
Civil Unre
st & So
cial Justi
ce Issues
Health C
are
State
Budget & Ta
xes
Crime
Voter Rights
Immigra
tion
Enviro
nment
Unsure/R
efused
Top IssueQ: What do you feel is the most important issue or problem facing North Carolina that the Governor and state legislature should make a top priority?
Coronavirus/COVID-19 is the top issue for voters, followed by a second tier of unemployment/jobs, education, and civil unrest & social justice issues.
• Republicans (23% COVID-19, 18% jobs) and unaffiliated voters (20%, 18%) are divided between COVID-19 and jobs. Democrats are more focused on COVID-19 (37%), followed by civil unrest/social justice (15%).
• African-American respondents (40% COVID-19) are more likely to prioritize COVID-19. Concern about Coronavirus varies slightly by community type: urban (30%), suburban (29%) voters, rural voters (25%).
34
63
20
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Yes No Unsure/Refused
Personal ConcernQ: Has the COVID-19 pandemic made you more concerned about you and your family’s access to quality, affordable health care?
Voters report a lower level of concern about their personal ability to access quality, affordable health care. Still, a third are more concerned about this due to COVID-19.
Friend & Neighbor AccessQ: Do you know someone -- a friend, neighbor, relative etc. -- struggling with being unable to afford health care?
Forty-four percent of voters say they know someone struggling with affording health care.
• Substantial portions of Democrats (54%), unaffiliated voters (41%), Republicans (35%) know someone struggling to afford health care.
• A majority of healthcare industry workers know someone struggling to afford health care (53%).
• Low income respondents are more likely to know someone in this situation (<$60K: 50%, $60-100K: 39%, $100-$150K: 37%, $150K+: 42%).
44
55
10
10
20
30
40
50
60
Yes No Unsure/Refused
7867
9075
5971
8498
8272 78
85
1727
720
3324
141
1625
13 11
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Overa
llRE
PDEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
Healthcare W
orker
CLT DMA
Greens
boro D
MA
Raleigh-D
urham D
MA
Yes No
NC Long Term ImpactQ: North Carolina has reported about 157,000 cases of COVID-19 and more than 2,500 deaths. More than 1.2 million North Carolinians have filed for unemployment with many losing their job-sponsored health insurance. Do you believe the impacts of COVID-19 will be long lasting?
The vast majority of North Carolinians agree that the impacts of COVID-19 will be long lasting.
• Voter sentiment holds across partisan and ideological divides.
Medicaid Opinion
37%
23%8%6%
19%1%
5% Very favorableSomewhat favorableSomewhat unfavorableVery unfavorableHeard of, no opinionNever heard ofUnsure/Refused
Total Favorable: 60%Total Unfavorable: 14%
Q: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Medicaid?
Six-in-ten respondents have a favorable opinion of Medicaid. Favorable opinion towards Medicaid is held by Republicans and Conservatives as well as voters young and old alike.
REP DEM UNA Very Cons
SmwtCons Mod Lib Under
55Over
55
Favorable 51 70 59 46 54 59 83 57 64Unfavorable 20 9 17 25 12 18 7 16 13
Close the Coverage Gap
56%19%
7%9%10%
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Unsure/Refused
Total Favor: 75%Total Oppose: 16%
Q: The healthcare “coverage gap” refers to people -- front-line workers, farmers, childcare and nursing home workers, small business owners -- who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, but not enough to purchase their own insurance plans. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, more North Carolinians fall into the coverage gap, for a total of more than 600,000. Do you favor or oppose the Legislature creating a solution to close the coverage gap?
Three-in-four voters in North Carolina support the Legislature creating a solution to close the coverage gap.
Coverage Gap – Key Demos• Support for closing the coverage gap remains strong across key demographics.
• Support is high in the major media markets of the state.
64
8376
6066
8489
73 77 75 77 7970
76 77 73 77
91
20
919 22 24
126
17 13 15 17 1319
14 15 15 13
20
102030405060708090
100
REP
DEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
Under 55
55 and older
White
Af-Am
WomenMen
CLT DMA
Greens
boro D
MA
Raleigh-D
urham D
MA
4 of 4
Vote
r
Sub. W
hite W
omen
Favor Oppose
COVID-19 Impact & Coverage GapQ: Before COVID-19, experts estimated that if North Carolina closed its coverage gap, more than 400,000 North Carolinians would gain health insurance. Since the pandemic hit, that number has risen to over 600,000. An estimated 178,000 additional North Carolinians now fall in the healthcare coverage gap. Knowing this, are you more likely or less likely to favor solutions to close the coverage gap?
Voters across key demographics are more likely to support solutions to close the coverage gap after hearing of the COVID-19 impact.
74
58
8677
5763
8292
73 76 7281 78
70 74 7972 73
84
14 228 13
23 1911 7
14 14 14 13 12 16 16 15 13 145
0102030405060708090
100
Overa
llRE
PDEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
Under 55
55 and older
White
Af-Am
WomenMen
CLT DMA
Greens
boro D
MA
Raleigh-D
urham D
MA
4 of 4
Vote
r
Sub. W
hite W
omen
More Likely Less Likely
Medicaid Expansion Opinion
57%20%
6%11%
6%
Strongly favor
Somewhat favor
Somewhat oppose
Strongly oppose
Unsure/Refused
Total Favor: 77%Total Oppose: 17%
Q: Medicaid is a federal health insurance program for low-income adults, seniors, children, and people with disabilities. Would you favor or oppose the state of North Carolina expanding Medicaid so that more people can qualify—helping to close the coverage gap?
Nearly 80% of registered North Carolina voters support expanding Medicaid, including a majority who strongly favor.
Medicaid Expansion Opinion2019 vs. 2020
72 77
21 177 6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2/25/2019 8/27/2020
Favor Oppose Unsure/Refused
Q: Medicaid is a federal health insurance program for low-income adults, seniors, children, and people with disabilities. Would you favor or oppose the state of North Carolina expanding Medicaid so that more people can qualify—helping to close the coverage gap?
Support for expanding Medicaid in North Carolina has grown a net +9% since last year.
2019 Data Source: STRATEGIC PARTNERS SOLUTIONS NC Statewide Survey
Medicaid Expansion – Key Demos• Majorities of voters across demographic divisions in the electorate support Medicaid Expansion.
• Support wanes slightly among Republicans, Conservatives, and men, but remains at solid majority levels.
• Democrats, Liberals, and African-Americans are almost universally supportive. Support also increases among low income respondents and women.
61
91
75
5864
84
98
8277 77 77
70
96
84
6976
7279
7581
30
6
19
36
24
12
2
1317 17 17
23
1
13
2317
2316 19 16
0102030405060708090
100
REP
DEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
<$60
K
Under 55
55+
65+
White
Af-Am
WomenMen
CLT DMA
Greens
boro D
MA
Raleigh-D
urham D
MA
4 of 4
Vote
r
Sub. W
hite W
omen
Favor Oppose
Election ImportanceQ: Do you think closing the coverage gap will be an important issue in the upcoming election?
Most voters view closing the coverage gap as an important issue in the upcoming election.
• Majorities of Republicans (50%) and Somewhat Conservatives (53%) agree; Very Conservatives (49% agree)
• Agreement increases among Unaffiliated voters (60%) and suburban white women (67%).
61
50
72
60
4953
70 73
57
7568
53
6359 59 60
67
31
43
19
33
4540
23 20
36
1521
43
2834 33 32
23
0
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80
Overa
llREP
DEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
Whit
eAf-A
m
Women
Men
CLT DMA
Greensboro D
MA
Raleigh-Durh
am DM
A
4 of 4
Vote
r
Sub. W
hite W
omen
Yes No
MESSAGE TESTING
Q: Now I am going to read you a series of statements about expanding Medicaid in North Carolina. Please tell me whether each statement makes you more likely or less likely to support expanding Medicaid in North Carolina.
Positive Message Testing
54
67
70
81
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
In 38 states, where both Republican andDemocratic leaders have expanded
Medicaid, private health insurance rateshave been reduced on average by 11%.
Because of the coverage gap, 1 in 4veterans who served in Iraq and/or
Afghanistan are w/o health insurancecoverage, and are not eligible for VA
coverage. Expanding Medicaid wouldmean that at least 12,000 veterans would
gain access to health insurance.
Total More Likely Much More Likely
The impact on veterans and beneficial impact for private health insurance rates are both very persuasive for voters.
Positive Message Testing- Key Demos
REP DEM UNA Very Cons
SmwtCons Mod <$60K <55 55+ Wo-
men Men CLT DMA
GreensboroDMA
R-D DMA
4 of 4
Veterans 55 77 68 58 63 68 72 63 72 76 58 65 64 68 68
Private Insurance Impact
37 65 54 39 40 64 55 54 52 59 46 49 47 55 54
• The table on this slide shows the percentage of likely voters who are much more likely to support the Medicaid Expansion after hearing each message among key demographics. Focusing on intensity illustrates the variation in effectiveness. Green highlight is the top message for that column demographic.
• The veterans message finds the most widespread appeal; making majorities of voters across key demographic breaks much more likely to support Medicaid Expansion.
• The private insurance impact message is particularly effective with respondents who have employer-based private insurance (78% more likely, 58% much more).
Negative Message Testing
38
39
45
43
34 36 38 40 42 44 46
If North Carolina expands Medicaid, the state willbe forced to run the program according to
Washington mandates. The last thing we need ispoliticians and bureaucrats from DC dictating how
we provide healthcare in our state.
While the Federal Government is paying for 90% ofthe program, the US has a nearly 27 trillion dollardebt and Congress could decide to stop paying
at any point in time, leaving North Carolinataxpayers to foot the entire bill.
More Likely Less LikelyBoth of the negative messages still register as net-positives, however they make substantial minorities less likely to support a Medicaid Expansion.
Negative Message Testing- Key Demos
REP DEM UNA Very Cons
SmwtCons Mod <$60K <55 55+ Wo-
men Men CLT DMA
GreensboroDMA
R-D DMA
4 of 4
National Debt 51 30 39 47 60 32 34 36 44 32 48 38 49 33 39
Mandates 45 30 37 49 41 38 32 38 36 29 47 39 48 34 41
• The table on this slide shows the percentage of likely voters who are total less likely to support the Medicaid Expansion after hearing each message among key demographics. This is used in lieu of intensity due to the lower overall intensity levels.
• Overall, the negative messages have the most impact with Republicans, Conservatives, men, and in the Greensboro media market.
INFORMED OPINION
Informed Medicaid Expansion OpinionQ: Now that you have heard additional arguments from both sides on the issue of expanding Medicaid in North Carolina, do you favor or oppose the state of North Carolina expanding Medicaid so that more people can qualify—helping to close the coverage gap?
After the message testing, the margin in favor of Medicaid Expansion narrows slightly from +60% to +53%.
77 74
17 21
6 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Initial Informed
Favor Oppose Unsure/Refused
Informed Opinion – Key Demos• The chart below compares the net-favor on the initial opinion test to the informed across key
demographics.
• Voters across key demographics continue to net-favor expanding Medicaid in North Carolina.
31
85
56
22
40
72
96
69
60 60 60
47
95
71
46
59
49
6356
65
19
82
56
8
36
67
95
62
53 54 54
43
84
71
34
54
45
55
47
72
0
10
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REP
DEM UNA
Very Cons
Smwt C
onsMod Lib
<$60
K
Under 55
55+
65+
White
Af-Am
WomenMen
CLT DMA
Greens
boro D
MA
Raleigh-D
urham D
MA
4 of 4
Vote
r
Sub. W
hite W
omen
Initial Net-Favor Informed Net-Favor
North Carolina Senate Districts 1, 11, 24 & 31
Survey Key FindingsAugust 26-27, 2020
Sample size: 300 registered voters per district
Brock McCleary, President
The sample size for each survey is 300 registered voters in each Senate District and the margin of error is +/-5.64% at a 95% confidence interval, meaning that if this survey were repeated, results would not vary from the population by more than 5.64 percentage points 19 times out of 20. Responses were gathered via landline interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR) technology and cell phone interviews conducted via text message solicitation. Demographics were adjusted to reflect the population from which the sample was drawn. The survey was conducted August 26–27, 2020 by Harper Polling. The total percentages of responses may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Methodology
Closing the Coverage Gap
64 60 64 68
1824
18 1418 15 19 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SD 1 SD 11 SD 24 SD 31
Favor Oppose Not sure
Q: The healthcare “coverage gap” refers to people --front-line workers, farmers, childcare and nursing home workers, small business owners --who earn too much to qualify for Medicaid, but not enough to purchase their own insurance plans. As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, more North Carolinians fall into the coverage gap, for a total of more than 600,000. Do you favor or oppose the legislature creating a solution to close the coverage gap?
Substantial majorities of voters in each Senate District support a legislative solution to close the coverage gap.
Medicaid Expansion
7063
70 69
2532
23 26
5 4 8 50
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
SD 1 SD 11 SD 24 SD 31
Favor Oppose Not sure
Q: Medicaid is a federal health insurance program for low-income adults, seniors, children, and people with disabilities. Would you favor or oppose the state of North Carolina expanding Medicaid so that more people can qualify—helping to close the coverage gap?
Voters in the four Senate Districts tested are even stronger in their support for expanding Medicaid in order to help close the coverage gap.
