new meinshausen et al. 2009a allen et al. 2009 · 2013. 8. 21. · 2 1 ( ) t t c glob p e glob t dt...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: New Meinshausen et al. 2009a Allen et al. 2009 · 2013. 8. 21. · 2 1 ( ) T T C glob p E glob t dt 2 1 glob M nat M glob T T nat nat M T M T C =∫E t dt =C p “World Formula”](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052804/604e07ac5037c275a0507418/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Meinshausen et al. 2009aAllen et al. 2009
![Page 2: New Meinshausen et al. 2009a Allen et al. 2009 · 2013. 8. 21. · 2 1 ( ) T T C glob p E glob t dt 2 1 glob M nat M glob T T nat nat M T M T C =∫E t dt =C p “World Formula”](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052804/604e07ac5037c275a0507418/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
The world‘s CO2 budget
Exemplary emission pathways in order to remain within a budget of 750 Gt between 2010 and 2050. At this level, there is a 67% probability of staying below a warming of 2 °C.
![Page 3: New Meinshausen et al. 2009a Allen et al. 2009 · 2013. 8. 21. · 2 1 ( ) T T C glob p E glob t dt 2 1 glob M nat M glob T T nat nat M T M T C =∫E t dt =C p “World Formula”](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052804/604e07ac5037c275a0507418/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
![Page 4: New Meinshausen et al. 2009a Allen et al. 2009 · 2013. 8. 21. · 2 1 ( ) T T C glob p E glob t dt 2 1 glob M nat M glob T T nat nat M T M T C =∫E t dt =C p “World Formula”](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022052804/604e07ac5037c275a0507418/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
∫=2
1
)()(T
Tglobglob dttEpC
)()()()(
2
1 Mglob
Mnatglob
T
Tnatnat TM
TMpCdttEC == ∫
“World Formula” for Climate Policy
Total global CO2 budget in period[T1,T2] that keeps global warmingbelow 2°C with probability p
Integral over global profile of CO2 emissions
National CO2budget in [T1,T2]
Integral overnational emissionprofile
Fraction of global CO2 budgetas defined by ratio of national population Mnat to worldpopulation Mglob at time TM