ncdc’s coastal climatology collaborations: background & update on the recent alaska and hawaii...

NCDC’s Coastal Climatology Collaborations:

Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops1


Background & Update on the recent Alaska and Hawaii Workshops

David Levinson, Ph.D.Climate Monitoring Branch

National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)NOAA / NESDIS

Asheville, NC

January 11, 2006Coastal Weather Impacts on Society and the Environment

(CWISE) Update Meeting



Outline and Overview

2

Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE)

Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO)

NOAA Integrated Data and Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center

Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast Workshop:– Anchorage, August 2-4, 2005

Pacific Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development Workshop:– Honolulu, December 5-6, 2005



Pacific Region Integrated Data Enterprise (PRIDE)

Purpose of PRIDE program:– To meet critical regional needs for ocean, climate and

ecosystem information

– To protect lives and property

– Support economic development

– Enhance the resilience of Pacific Island communities in the face of changing environmental conditions



PRIDE Mission

More than a traditional data activity (archive or services)– Fund external projects to accomplish goals

Integrated enterprise for environmental products and services

To strengthen delivery of ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem products and services to the diverse Pacific Island user community

To provide feedback mechanism to ocean and ocean-related climate and ecosystem observing systems

To provide a true focus for the regional integration and delivery of such products



PRIDE TeamOriginal Core Members:

– Howard Diamond (NESDIS/NCDC)– John Kineman & Dave Clark (NESDIS/NGDC)– Eileen Shea, East-West Center (NOAA IDEA Center)– Mike Seki (NMFS/PIFSC)– Bill Thomas, John Marra, Darcee Killpack (NOAA PSC)– Jeff Payne and Cindy Fowler (NOAA CSC)– Jim Weyman, NWS/WFO Honolulu– Ed Young, NWS/PRH– Jay McCreary and Peter Hacker (IPRC)

Mailing list:– [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]



University of Hawaii– International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)– Asia Pacific Data Research Center (APDRC)– UH Sea Level Center

NOAA National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS)

– National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)– National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC)– National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC)

NOAA National Weather Service (NWS)– Pacific Region Headquarters – Weather Forecast Office (HNL)– Pacific ENSO Applications Center– International Tsunami Information Center (ITIC)– Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (PTWC)

NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS)– Pacific Islands Regional Office– Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center– Coastwatch

NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS)– Pacific Services Center (PSC)– National Marine Sanctuaries– Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO)

PRIDE Partners



Pacific Risk Management Ohana (PRiMO)

Background and purpose:– Network of partners and stakeholders involved in the

development and delivery of risk management–related information, products, and services in the Pacific region.

– PRiMO was established at the 2004 Roundtable of Federal Hazard Mitigation Partners in the Pacific Islands (FHMPPI), held in Honolulu, March 2004.

– Overall goal of enhancing communication, coordination, and collaboration among the `ohana of partners and stakeholders involved in this work.



PRiMO Hui O’ Hana

PRiMO Groups:– Observations and Data Management

– Training and Education

– Communications, Education, and Outreach

– Risk Reduction and Post-Disaster Evaluation

– Data Analysis and Decision Support Tools

– Traditional Knowledge and Practices



PRiMO Framework



NOAA Integrated Data for Environmental Applications (IDEA) Center

PRIDE Funded Center:– Focus is environmental data applications

East-West Center as Institutional Incubator

Contractual arrangement between NOAA/NESDIS (NCDC), RTi and East-West Center:– 18-month initial contract period; two, one-year options– August 2005 start date (delayed till spring 2006)

Initial Core Staff: – Interim Director (Eileen Shea)– Project Assistant for Data Integration– Project Assistant for Education/Outreach– Secretary/Administrative Assistant– Other fiscal and administrative support provided by EWC



NOAA IDEA Center Development of new products and services:

– PRIDE 2006 solicitation & review process

Stakeholder and partnering workshops:– Two targeted workshops per year– Support for related workshops & meetings (e.g., PRiMO)

Support for regional observing systems & programs:– e.g., PI-GCOS, PacIOOS, PI-GOOS

IDEA Center strategic planning & program development

IDEA Center education and outreach:– Initial information technology systems development (if funding

permits)



Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind-Wave Hindcast Workshop

Anchorage: August 2-4, 2005OBJECTIVES

– Assess agency (federal, state, NGO) needs regarding wind/wave climatologies for Alaska

• Coordination with Hawaii: needs/efforts

– Assess present capacity: • coastal wind/wave data availability, existing and planned

observing systems (i.e. AK-IOOS)

– Integration and modeling capability

– Pilot Project and site selection



Accomplishments and Action Items Outreach:

– Identification of collaborators – Clearly established the needs of emergency managers– Links were made to HI and the Pacific region (PRiMO) and other larger

efforts (e.g. IOOS)

Establishment of Stakeholder Relevant Time-Frames:– Days: “Reactive level” – emergency planning– Weeks/Months/Seasonal: “Proactive level” – anticipatory

response– Several years: “Planning level” – city/county planning

activities– Climate trends: “Lifecycle level” – civil engineering horizon

Establishment of data and product needs:– Modeling Issues and Requirements (40+ wave models)– Available datasets for wind-wave climatologies



Workshop Goals/ Immediate Outcomes Identify Theme Areas:

– Establish Theme Teams with designated Team Leaders

Identify potential models and ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial, and other parameters:– Those required to support the coastal wind/wave models.

Identify on-going similar work and potential partnerships

Establish a team to outline and write a Plan of Action and Milestones (POA&M) that: – Delivers an operational support tool to Alaskan coastal planners by the end of

FY 08.

Prepare a FY06 PRIDE Proposal for FY06 activities– FY 07-08 activities and final operational deliverable.



Preliminary Wave Energy Hindcast Results for the Circum-Arctic Region

PI- Dr. David Atkinson (University of Alaska-Fairbanks)

Purpose: – Develop a system that will translate winds into wave energy

Driving winds – gridded dataset is desirable:– North American Regional Reanalysis for AK (32 km)– NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis– AOGCM for work with prediction scenarios

Generate climatological wave fields:– monthly totals– annual totals– period means and trends (1979-2003)– Assess contribution of ice



Trends in open water season length, 1950 - 2000(model initialized with observations)

Melt season increasingReduced sea ice cover



Storm Impacts on Coastal Erosion



ACD zones, weather station locations

Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project

Results from Arctic Coastal Dynamics project



3

5

7

1

24

6

Storm countsStorm counts



Trends in storm countsTrends in storm counts

- no strong trend



NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind speed problem

1979 total1979 total

ICE No ICE

1998 total1998 total

ICE No ICE

1979 – 2003 mean1979 – 2003 mean

ICE No ICE

1979 – 2003 trends1979 – 2003 trends

ICE No ICE



Wave Energy Hindcast for the Circum-Arctic Region

Preliminary Conclusions:– Trends in (circumpolar) storminess not simple linear

– Ice (marine and terrestrial) must be explicitly considered for erosion work

– Influence of sea ice for wave energy apparent even for this coarse approach

– Wave energy trends, not just seasonal totals, influenced by sea ice conditions



PRiMO Wave and Water Level (WWL) Hazards Data Framework Development Workshop

UH-Manoa, EWC: December 5-6, 2005

Workshop Objectives:

– To engage subject matter experts to further develop the WWL hazards data framework

– Align PRiMO’s data integration and sharing activities with related activities in the region

– Establish user community familiarity with data sharing and access applications and tools

– Aid in further establishing hazard and risk data management relationships that will enhance geospatial information sharing

– Foster opportunities for greater collaboration in the region.



PRiMO Hazards Data Framework Development History – Defining of Framework Activities

March 2004 PRiMO Annual Meeting:– identified the need to facilitate data integration and

sharing as one of its overall objectives.

– The lack of established hazards-related theme and data standards in this regard was identified as one of PRiMO’s primary focus areas.

– The task of initiating regional hazards data framework development activities was assigned to PRiMO’s Observations and Data Management Hui.



Systems

Data

Products process

time frame

use sector

Waves and Water LevelIntegrated System, Data, and Products Architecture

Ocean Flooding

Coastal Erosion

Sea Level Change

Tsunami

Radar, Video, etc.SatellitesTide Gauges Wave Buoys

Real Time

Near Real Time

Delayed Mode

Archived Historic

NOWCAST FORECAST FUTURECAST warnings and bulletins weekly, monthly, seasonal outlook scenarios and projections

Mitigation Planners

and Managers

Emergency Managers

and Responders Recreation and Tourism

Ship Masters and Port Managers



Proposed Natural Hazard Theme Categorization

The range of natural hazards in the Pacific region are classified into 3 categories and 13 specific themes

Seismic and Volcanic VolcanicSeismic

Drought Wildfire

Strong Winds

Erosion and

LandslidesWeather and

Climate

Heavy Rains/Stream

FloodingSevere

Weather

Waves and Water Levels

High Waves

Ocean Flooding

Coastal Erosion

Sea Level Rise Tsunami



The Natural Hazards Theme in a Risk Management Data Structure

Three general types of data are used in Risk Management – Base or Framework data, Hazards data, and Assets data:

Assets Data

Natural Hazards

Data

EconomicCritical Facilities

Social

Base or Framework

Data

Geodetic Control

Imagery Boundaries

Cultural Environmental

Etc.

Human or Environmental Hazards Data

Hazards Data

The focus of the ongoing PRiMO hazards data framework development initiatives are on Natural Hazards data.



Waves and Water Level File Structure

Systems

Ocean Flooding

Coastal Erosion

Sea Level Change Tsunami

Waves and Water Level Read

Me –

Data ------ Dictionary

Products

Data

nowcast forecast futurecast

Real Time Archived

Level 1 QA/QC

Level 2 QA/QC

Level 3 QA/QC

Tide Stations

Wave Buoys

SatellitesVideo,

radar, etc.

Tier 0

Tier 1 and 2

Tier 3, 4, and 5

sectorsector

sector

sectorsector

sector

sectorsector

sector



Waves and Water LevelData/Product Typology

Tier 0 – station/platform information(e.g., station location description, instrument specifications)

Tier 1 – “raw” data (e.g., real time or near real time elevation time series)

Tier 2 – “archived” data (e.g., QA/QC’d historical elevation time series)

Tier 3 – “derived” products(e.g., plot of observed versus predicted tides with residuals)

Tier 4 – “applied” products

(e.g., plot of total water level return intervals based on GEV analysis)

Tier 5 – “customized” products(e.g., flood insurance rate map)

Tier 6 – “culturally-sensitive” products ?

Systems

Data by system

Products by process and time frame

by use sector

models…



What’s Next…

Alaska Coastal Climatologies:– FY06 PRIDE Proposal (Feb. 06)– Pilot Project Selection:

• Cook Inlet• West Coast site (e.g. Kotzebue)• North Slope site (e.g. Barrow)

Hawaii Coastal Climatologies:– NOAA IDEA Center wants to “jump-start” coastal

climatologies program• Hawaii pilot project focused on Wave and Water Level Hazards

ncdc’s coastal climatology collaborations: background & update on the recent alaska and hawaii...

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