national macro indicators - pdf.savills.asia · 2 national macro indicators gdp increased 6.8% in...

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National Macro Indicators

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National Macro Indicators

GDP increased 6.8% in 1H/2019 and was more stable compared to the previous year.

Manufacturing and processing continue to be the key economic drivers. CPI was 2.6 %, the

lowest H1 increase in 3 years.

Total exports increased 7% year on year (YoY) to reach US$122.7 billion. The USA and the EU

continue to be the main export markets. The $34 million trade deficit was mainly due to higher

import costs.

Registered FDI was over US$18 billion with China and Korea the largest contributors. Disbursed

FDI reached US$9.1billion, up 8% YoY.

International visitors continue to grow with 8.4 million arrivals, up 8% YoY.

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QMR Brief - HCMC

Source: Savills Research & Consultancy



RETAIL: CBD PERFORMANCE IMPROVED

Total stock was approximately 1.4 million m2, stable quarter on

quarter (QoQ) but increasing 13% YoY.

Average rents decreased -1% QoQ and -3% YoY due to new

supply and competition in non-CBD areas. Occupancy

remained stable QoQ but improved 4ppts YoY. CBD rents

increased 4% QoQ and occupancy improved by 2ppts.

Retail sales were up 13.8% YoY, F&B purchases grew 9.7%

YoY. In 2H/2019, approximately 50,000m2 in non-CBD districts

will come online.

OFFICE: HEALTHY DEMAND

Four new Grade C buildings added 32,800 m2. Total supply is

almost 1.9 million m2, increasing 2% QoQ and 3% YoY.

Rents steadily increased across all grades, up 6% YoY with the

strongest contribution from Grade A projects. Occupancy

remained high at 97%, up 1ppt YoY but down -1ppt QoQ.

By 2021, approximately 422,000 m2 new space is expected.

With strong demand, occupancy and rents are expected to

increase over the second half of 2019.

HOTEL: INCREASING STOCK

Supply increased for the first time in 2 years, with 488 new rooms

from 1 new and 4 renovated projects. Stock grew 3% QoQ to

over 16,100 rooms.

Low season and extra supply affected second quarter

performance. Average occupancy fell -4ppts YoY and ARR

eased -3% YoY.

International arrivals to HCMC of 4.3 million were down -10%

YoY: the lowest growth in four years.

Figure 1

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Average rent Occupancy

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Figure 2

Figure 3

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QMR Brief - HCMC




SERVICED APARTMENT: IMPROVED PERFORMANCE

One new Grade B project with 44 units entered, offsetting 49

closed rooms in 4 projects. Overall stock remained unchanged

QoQ but was up 11% YoY, to over 5,800 units.

Despite continuous stock increases, occupancy was high and

stable at over 80% while gross rent was up 2% YoY to

US$25/m2/mth.

By 2021, HCMC will gain over 1,200 units from 10 projects split

between District 2 and the CBD.

APARTMENT: IMPROVED SALES

Five new projects entered and 15 projects next phases supplied

over 6,500 units. The 13,000 primary units supply is down -3%

QoQ and -49% YoY.

8,200 sales was an increase of 18% QoQ but down -42% YoY.

Absorption peaked at 64%, up 12ppts QoQ and 8ppts YoY.

Grade C remained the driver at 61% of sales and 67%

absorption.

To 2021, over 160,000 units from 95 projects will launch; over

40,000 are expected to enter in the second half 2019.

VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: LIMITED NEW SUPPLY

Four new projects and the next phases of two projects added 590

units, contributing 1,290 units to primary stock, unchanged QoQ

but down -23% YoY. The 670 sales were up 15% QoQ but down

-38% YoY due to a smaller purchaser pool. District 9 and 12 led

with a combined 49% share.

Primary land supply was from 2,490 plots in Q2/2019. Quarterly

absorption was 71 percent thanks to newly launched supply. Cu

Chi had the most transactions with a 47% share.

From 2H/2019 to 2021, over 26,900 dwellings/plots will be

released. District 9 and Binh Chanh will have the largest supply

with a combined 51% share.

Figure 4

Figure 5

Figure 6

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Average price Absorption rate

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dist. 9 dist. 12 BinhChanh

ThuDuc

dist. 8 dist. 2 Go Vap Others

Dw

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ng

s

Others: D.1, Binh Thanh, Nha Be

Townhouses Shophouses Villas

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Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - HCMC

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

%QoQ Index Absorption rate (%) Lending rate (%)

Note: Base Index Q1 2009 = 100


Figure 7: Residential QoQ Index

Figure 8: Office QoQ Index

50

60

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80

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100

110

120

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Note: Base Index in Q1 2009 = 100


Whole market CBD Non-CBD

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QMR Brief - Hanoi




RETAIL: NEW NON-CBD SUPPLY

Total stock was approximately 1.5 million m², up 7% quarter-on-

quarter (QoQ) and 14% year-on-year (YoY) after the entry of six

projects in the West and Secondary areas.

The average ground floor gross rent decreased -2% QoQ but

increased 6% YoY, while occupancy was up 1 ppt QoQ and

stable YoY. New supply in the non-CBD led to lower overall rent.

Retail sales were up 14% YoY. In 2H/2019, approximately

142,000 ² will launch, including one project providing over

70,000 m².

OFFICE: GRADE B AND THE WEST IMPROVED

Total stock was approximately 1.8 million m², up 2% QoQ and

9% YoY.

Average rent rose 1% QoQ and 3% YoY while occupancy was

up 1 ppt QoQ and stable YoY.

Grade B had the largest occupancy increase while Grade A had

the most substantial increase in rent. The West had stronger

growth than the CBD and Secondary area.

There were 13,690 new enterprises in 1H/2019, increasing 10%

YoY. In 2H/2019, 79,000 m² will enter, mostly in the Secondary

area.

HOTEL FIVE-STAR LEADS

Stock was approximately 10,000 units, stable QoQ but down -

1% YoY.

Average Room Rate (ARR) decreased -3% QoQ but increased

7% YoY. Average occupancy dropped -1ppt but grew 1ppt YoY.

In 1H/2019, there were approximately 3.3 million international

visitors to Ha Noi, up 10.6% YoY.

Figure 9

Figure 10

Figure 11

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Department store Shopping centre Retail podium

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mth

%

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5-star 4-star 3-star

%

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QMR Brief - Hanoi




SERVICED APARTMENT: LARGE FUTURE SUPPLY

51 properties provided 4,700 units. In 2H/2019, approximately

950 units will enter.

Average rent was US$25/m²/mth, stable QoQ but up 3% YoY,

whilst average occupancy decreased -2 ppts QoQ and -5 ppts

YoY.

Only Grade C recorded a QoQ increase in RevPAU. Registered

FDI to Ha Noi remained the highest nationwide at US$5.3 billion

APARTMENT: PRICES INCREASED

Six new and the next phases of 11 projects provided

approximately 6,600 units, down -32% QoQ and -33% YoY.

Transactions decreased -3% QoQ but increased 27% YoY, while

absorption grew 2 ppts QoQ and 4 ppts YoY to 31 percent. Grade

B accounted for 71% of sales, followed by Grade C with 28

percent.

In 2H/2019, approximately 30,000 units will enter from 39

projects, most will be Grade B.

VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: STRONG PERFORMANCE

Total stock was over 49,000 dwellings, increasing 3% QoQ and

15% YoY.

Four new projects and four new phases supplied approximately

1,400 dwellings. Primary stock was over 3,300, up 9% QoQ and

down -3% YoY. Transactions had increase of 82% YoY and

absorption was 64%, up 30 ppts YoY.

Gia Lam led with 42% of sales, followed by Ha Dong with 21

percent.

In 2H/2019, projects by Vimefulland, MIK and Sunshine Group

will come online.

Figure 12

Figure 13

Figure 14

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Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - Hanoi

Figure 15: Residential QoQ Index

Figure 16: Office QoQ Index

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

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QoQ Index Absorption rate (%) Lending rate (%)

Note: Base Index in Q1 2009 = 100Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Whole market CBD Non CBD

Note: Base index in Q1/2009 = 100Source: Savills Research & Consultancy

Point

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national macro indicators - pdf.savills.asia · 2 national macro indicators gdp increased 6.8% in...

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