1
National Macro Indicators
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National Macro Indicators
GDP increased 6.8% in 1H/2019 and was more stable compared to the previous year.
Manufacturing and processing continue to be the key economic drivers. CPI was 2.6 %, the
lowest H1 increase in 3 years.
Total exports increased 7% year on year (YoY) to reach US$122.7 billion. The USA and the EU
continue to be the main export markets. The $34 million trade deficit was mainly due to higher
import costs.
Registered FDI was over US$18 billion with China and Korea the largest contributors. Disbursed
FDI reached US$9.1billion, up 8% YoY.
International visitors continue to grow with 8.4 million arrivals, up 8% YoY.
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QMR Brief - HCMC
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
RETAIL: CBD PERFORMANCE IMPROVED
Total stock was approximately 1.4 million m2, stable quarter on
quarter (QoQ) but increasing 13% YoY.
Average rents decreased -1% QoQ and -3% YoY due to new
supply and competition in non-CBD areas. Occupancy
remained stable QoQ but improved 4ppts YoY. CBD rents
increased 4% QoQ and occupancy improved by 2ppts.
Retail sales were up 13.8% YoY, F&B purchases grew 9.7%
YoY. In 2H/2019, approximately 50,000m2 in non-CBD districts
will come online.
OFFICE: HEALTHY DEMAND
Four new Grade C buildings added 32,800 m2. Total supply is
almost 1.9 million m2, increasing 2% QoQ and 3% YoY.
Rents steadily increased across all grades, up 6% YoY with the
strongest contribution from Grade A projects. Occupancy
remained high at 97%, up 1ppt YoY but down -1ppt QoQ.
By 2021, approximately 422,000 m2 new space is expected.
With strong demand, occupancy and rents are expected to
increase over the second half of 2019.
HOTEL: INCREASING STOCK
Supply increased for the first time in 2 years, with 488 new rooms
from 1 new and 4 renovated projects. Stock grew 3% QoQ to
over 16,100 rooms.
Low season and extra supply affected second quarter
performance. Average occupancy fell -4ppts YoY and ARR
eased -3% YoY.
International arrivals to HCMC of 4.3 million were down -10%
YoY: the lowest growth in four years.
Figure 1
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Department store Shopping centre Retail podium
Average rent Occupancy
Mill
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/m2/M
onth
%
Figure 2
Figure 3
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25
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Grade A Grade B Grade C
Average rent Occupancy
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QMR Brief - HCMC
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
SERVICED APARTMENT: IMPROVED PERFORMANCE
One new Grade B project with 44 units entered, offsetting 49
closed rooms in 4 projects. Overall stock remained unchanged
QoQ but was up 11% YoY, to over 5,800 units.
Despite continuous stock increases, occupancy was high and
stable at over 80% while gross rent was up 2% YoY to
US$25/m2/mth.
By 2021, HCMC will gain over 1,200 units from 10 projects split
between District 2 and the CBD.
APARTMENT: IMPROVED SALES
Five new projects entered and 15 projects next phases supplied
over 6,500 units. The 13,000 primary units supply is down -3%
QoQ and -49% YoY.
8,200 sales was an increase of 18% QoQ but down -42% YoY.
Absorption peaked at 64%, up 12ppts QoQ and 8ppts YoY.
Grade C remained the driver at 61% of sales and 67%
absorption.
To 2021, over 160,000 units from 95 projects will launch; over
40,000 are expected to enter in the second half 2019.
VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: LIMITED NEW SUPPLY
Four new projects and the next phases of two projects added 590
units, contributing 1,290 units to primary stock, unchanged QoQ
but down -23% YoY. The 670 sales were up 15% QoQ but down
-38% YoY due to a smaller purchaser pool. District 9 and 12 led
with a combined 49% share.
Primary land supply was from 2,490 plots in Q2/2019. Quarterly
absorption was 71 percent thanks to newly launched supply. Cu
Chi had the most transactions with a 47% share.
From 2H/2019 to 2021, over 26,900 dwellings/plots will be
released. District 9 and Binh Chanh will have the largest supply
with a combined 51% share.
Figure 4
Figure 5
Figure 6
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20
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60
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100
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Grade A Grade B Grade C
Average rent Occupancy
Mil
VN
D/m
2/m
th
%
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%
Average price Absorption rate
Mil
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dist. 9 dist. 12 BinhChanh
ThuDuc
dist. 8 dist. 2 Go Vap Others
Dw
elli
ng
s
Others: D.1, Binh Thanh, Nha Be
Townhouses Shophouses Villas
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Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - HCMC
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10
20
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60
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70
75
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85
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95
100
Q1
Q2
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%QoQ Index Absorption rate (%) Lending rate (%)
Note: Base Index Q1 2009 = 100
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Figure 7: Residential QoQ Index
Figure 8: Office QoQ Index
50
60
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110
120
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Note: Base Index in Q1 2009 = 100
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Whole market CBD Non-CBD
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QMR Brief - Hanoi
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
RETAIL: NEW NON-CBD SUPPLY
Total stock was approximately 1.5 million m², up 7% quarter-on-
quarter (QoQ) and 14% year-on-year (YoY) after the entry of six
projects in the West and Secondary areas.
The average ground floor gross rent decreased -2% QoQ but
increased 6% YoY, while occupancy was up 1 ppt QoQ and
stable YoY. New supply in the non-CBD led to lower overall rent.
Retail sales were up 14% YoY. In 2H/2019, approximately
142,000 ² will launch, including one project providing over
70,000 m².
OFFICE: GRADE B AND THE WEST IMPROVED
Total stock was approximately 1.8 million m², up 2% QoQ and
9% YoY.
Average rent rose 1% QoQ and 3% YoY while occupancy was
up 1 ppt QoQ and stable YoY.
Grade B had the largest occupancy increase while Grade A had
the most substantial increase in rent. The West had stronger
growth than the CBD and Secondary area.
There were 13,690 new enterprises in 1H/2019, increasing 10%
YoY. In 2H/2019, 79,000 m² will enter, mostly in the Secondary
area.
HOTEL FIVE-STAR LEADS
Stock was approximately 10,000 units, stable QoQ but down -
1% YoY.
Average Room Rate (ARR) decreased -3% QoQ but increased
7% YoY. Average occupancy dropped -1ppt but grew 1ppt YoY.
In 1H/2019, there were approximately 3.3 million international
visitors to Ha Noi, up 10.6% YoY.
Figure 9
Figure 10
Figure 11
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Department store Shopping centre Retail podium
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200
400
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1,000
1,200
Avg. GF gross rent Occupancy
Thousand V
ND
/m²/
mth
%
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200
400
600
800
Grade A Grade B Grade C
%
Thousand V
ND
/m²/
mth
Avg. gross rent Occupancy
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5-star 4-star 3-star
%
Mil
VN
D/r
oom
/nig
ht
ARR Occupancy
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QMR Brief - Hanoi
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
SERVICED APARTMENT: LARGE FUTURE SUPPLY
51 properties provided 4,700 units. In 2H/2019, approximately
950 units will enter.
Average rent was US$25/m²/mth, stable QoQ but up 3% YoY,
whilst average occupancy decreased -2 ppts QoQ and -5 ppts
YoY.
Only Grade C recorded a QoQ increase in RevPAU. Registered
FDI to Ha Noi remained the highest nationwide at US$5.3 billion
APARTMENT: PRICES INCREASED
Six new and the next phases of 11 projects provided
approximately 6,600 units, down -32% QoQ and -33% YoY.
Transactions decreased -3% QoQ but increased 27% YoY, while
absorption grew 2 ppts QoQ and 4 ppts YoY to 31 percent. Grade
B accounted for 71% of sales, followed by Grade C with 28
percent.
In 2H/2019, approximately 30,000 units will enter from 39
projects, most will be Grade B.
VILLA & TOWNHOUSE: STRONG PERFORMANCE
Total stock was over 49,000 dwellings, increasing 3% QoQ and
15% YoY.
Four new projects and four new phases supplied approximately
1,400 dwellings. Primary stock was over 3,300, up 9% QoQ and
down -3% YoY. Transactions had increase of 82% YoY and
absorption was 64%, up 30 ppts YoY.
Gia Lam led with 42% of sales, followed by Ha Dong with 21
percent.
In 2H/2019, projects by Vimefulland, MIK and Sunshine Group
will come online.
Figure 12
Figure 13
Figure 14
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Grade A Grade B Grade C
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Average price Absorption rate
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2
8
Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - Hanoi
Figure 15: Residential QoQ Index
Figure 16: Office QoQ Index
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
%
QoQ Index Absorption rate (%) Lending rate (%)
Note: Base Index in Q1 2009 = 100Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Whole market CBD Non CBD
Note: Base index in Q1/2009 = 100Source: Savills Research & Consultancy
Point
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Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - Hanoi
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Savills Property Price Index (SPPI) - Hanoi