modeling of sustainable micro hydro power plant (mhp)

www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 8

Modeling of Sustainable Micro Hydro Power Plant (MHP)

Dwi Prapti Sri Margiasih

Absract –

Energy needs are expected to increase continuously as a result of economic and population growth.

The needs for national energy demand are fulfilled by fossil energy, However fossil energy reserves

increasingly depleted and the price is increased continuously. Therefore, it is necessary to develop of

renewable energy source. Utilization of renewable energy has not accommodated by local resources.

Which is cant support the sustainable management of renewable energy.

Micro hydro Also known as white resources known with translation as a "white energy". That

because power plant use the resources that have been provided by natural and environmentally

friendly. Is fact that nature has natural waterfalls or other types of water flowing into place. With

today's technology the energy of water flow of energy along with the height difference in a particular

area (where the installation will be built) can be converted into electrical energy

Utilization models of renewable energy (micro) based on local resources is a representation of an

integrated effort from all relevant institutions to support sustainable management of MHP. In general,

these efforts carried out systematically and comprehensively through a dimensional approaches

Ecology, Technology, Institutional, Economic, Social

Keywords—Micro hydro, sustainability renewable energy , modeling.

I. INTRODUCTION

Utilization of renewable energy resources as raw material for electrical energy production has

advantages such as easily available, can be obtained freely, means operating costs are relatively low,

there is no issue on waste, the production process does not cause a rise in earth temperature and

unaffected rising fuel prices (Jarass, 1980). Awareness Factors to preserve the environment, cause

human should reconsider alternative supply of electrical energy which renewable.

Electrical energy supply by PT. PLN (Persero), Indonesia's power manufacture is still insufficient to

meets the electrical energy needs of the community . Therefore, the government should pay attention

to local resources as potential sources of renewable energy to meet growing energy demand.

Submitted April 10, 2014. This paper is a researched how to reach the sustainability of renewable

energy supplay by manage local resources for microhydro operational. Dwi Prapti Sri Margiasih is

with the Environmental Science Graduate Program, University of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia

(phone: +6281332005456; e-mail: [email protected]).

The concept of sustainable development within energy management to meet human needs, however

must be matched with the preservation of environment in order to maintained ecosystem function

sustainability, this can be explained by the following diagram:

Source: (Haeruman, 2000)

Figure 1. Nature resources utilization flow chart

Energy

Resources

Environmental

Product

Waste

3 Instrument:

-Regulation

-Market mechanism

-Social Value System

www.theinternationaljournal.org > RJSITM: Volume: 03, Number: 8, June-2014 Page 19

Based on production lines of natural resources mention above, what is a key factor for use of

sustainable renewable energy based on local resources and How sustainable utilization models of

renewable energy by utilizing local resources?

The change in the paradigm of energy management, to meet the supply or availability of energy is

required to maximize the utilization of renewable energy supply and the price of fossil energy avoided

costs or avoid the cost of fossil energy.

This is because oil reserves to fuel power generation systems dwindling and the price is increase more

expensive. therefore trend of fossil fuel prices rising will increase the operating costs of generation are

also directly impact on unit cost of production of electrical energy.

On the other hand, the unit cost of production of electrical energy from power plant that utilize

renewable energy resources show a tendency to decline, scientists believe that at some point

mentioned unit cost of production will be lower than the unit cost of production with petroleum or

other fossil energy.

1.1. Research objective

The research objective is to perform modeling of renewable energy application (micro hydro) base on

local resources with a mathematical approach, and understand the leverage factor within micro hydro

operational accordance of the principles of environmentally sustainable development.

The research was held at the Seloliman micro hydro in East Java, Curug Muncar micro hydro,

Sonnggotirto micro hydro in Central Java, and Kombongan micro hydro, Cinta Mekar micro hydro in

West Java. It was conducted in September 2012 until November 2012.

1.2. Study Area

The research was held at the Seloliman micro hydro in East Java, Curug Muncar micro hydro,

Sonnggotirto micro hydro in Central Java, and Kombongan micro hydro, Cinta Mekar micro hydro in

West Java. It was conducted in September 2012 until November 2012.

1.3. Population and Sampling

This study use quantitative methode, the type of data used consisted of qualitative data and quantitative

data. Qualitative data such as: interviews and observations of the experts and surrounding community.

Quantitative data such as : observations of micro hydro facilities, and others secondary data.

Population of this study are all stakeholders of renewable energy (micro) consisting of Government /

Bureaucrats, MHP Entrepreneurs, experts / academics and users of renewable energy Society of MHP.

In other words, the present population is varied and not focused on one subject only. Through varying

population expected to create objectivity in this research

The number of samples are 36 correspondent which can be representative the actual condition, they

are experts, bureaucrats, micro hydro user and micro hydro management (Seloliman, Curug Muncar,

Songgotirto, Kombongan, Cinta Mekar micro hydro).

1.4. Formulas and Analytical Methods

Utilization of renewable energy based on local resources were analyzed using a multidimensional

approach scaling (MDS) with Rapfish analysis. MDS is a analysis technique used to determine the

sustainability of resource use from a variety of dimensions viewpoints.

Dimensions to sustainability are consisting of the dimensions of ecological, economic, social,

technological and institutional. Maps generated by the MDS geometry commonly known as spatial or

perceptual map folder, which is a translation of various dimensions related.

Importance Performance Analysis (IPA)

Importance Performance Analysis (IPA) is a method used to analyze the importance and performance

level of Informants/Speakers and MHP stakeholders. subsequently the interest rate and the

performance mapped in Cartesian diagram called Matrix IPA. IPA matrix consists of four quadrants,

each quadrant describes different circumstances. The quadrants are:

a. Quadrant I (attributes to improve)

This quadrant is an area contains attributes that are considered important by the interviewees, but in

fact these attributes are not as expected by speakers. Attributes that include in this quadrant should be


increased in order stakeholders creating improvements for better performance of existing attributes in

this quadrant.

b. Quadrant II (maintain performance)

This quadrant contains attributes considered important by data source and these attributes have been

considered in relatively high level of satisfaction. Attributes in this quadrant must be maintained,

because all the attributes important to make a superior product in speakers perceptions

c. Quadrant III (attributes to maintain)

This quadrant shows attributes that are considered less important and not extraordinary by the

interviewees . Improved attributes are included in this position can be reconsidered because of its

influence on the perceived benefits are very small by speakers.

d. Quadran IV (attributes to de-emphasize)

This quadrant indicates a low level of interest and considering less important attributes to speaker are

while the relatively high performance of stakeholders so that visitors assume that these attributes are

considered too excessive. Attributes are included in this quadrant should be efficient to save

stakeholders costs

Source : (Rangkuti, 2002)

Figure 2 Performance Matrix

Perceptual map can be generated from the analysis using attribute-based MDS. There are several

criteria that can be used to measure how well the map perception (perceptual map) is generated. These

criteria include:

a. R-square (RSQ)

MDS RSQ indicates the proportion of variance in the input data can be explained by the model of

MDS. The higher the RSQ, the better the model of MDS. According Maholtra in Simamora (2005), the

model is acceptable when RSQ ≥ 0.6.

b. Stress

This criterion is the opposite RSQ. Stress indicates the proportion of variance that is not explained by

differences in the model. Stress can be calculated in various ways, but the most commonly used is the

Kruskal stress, with the formula:

From the calculation, it can be interpreted that the lower the stress, the better the resulting MDS

models. Standard used by the Kruskal can be seen in Table 1.

Tabel 1 MDS Kruskal Standard

Stress (%) Goodness of Fit

20 Poor

10 Fair

5 Good

2,5 Excellent

0 Perfect


The method used is the dynamics system use the software dynamics Powersim. The dynamics system

begins from formed by the difference and differential equations. Difference equations used to

formulate biophysical problems as a future state depends on current state and other factors (Forrester,

1989).

The main concept-forming systems dynamics are feedback mechanisms in the form of Causal Loop

Diagrams-CLD and the mechanism of the stock and flow in the form of material or information-SFD

Stock Flow Diagram. Through the methods of systems dynamics models is expected to obtain an

integrated picture of the utilization of renewable energy based on local resources.

Model Validation

Model validation is execute by comparing the data with the simulation results of this empirical data

with the result that model can be expressed as a valid model and can be used to simulate real-world

circumstances.

Validation can also use a simple statistical method to calculate the AME (mean absolute error) of data

simulation results with empirical data. AME formula is as follows:

(Xr - Xs) / Xr x 100%

Where:

Xr = Data reference

Xs = Data Model

II. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

2.1. Sustainability analysis (ecological aspect)

In Figure 3. Shown that the values for the dimensions of ecological sustainability index is 67.22%

(with a sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of the index from 50 to 74.99%). This shows that

based on the criteria Kavanagh (2001), the status of sustainability for ecological dimension in

Location micro hydro power plants (MHP) fall into the category of sustainable enough

Figure 3. Ecology sustainability index Figure 4. Ecology leverage factor

Based on interviews with experts, to increase value of index in the future until it reaches the status of

ongoing, necessary improvements to the sensitive attributes that affect the ecological dimension of the

index value. Based on the analysis results obtained leverage four attributes are sensitive and affect the

level of sustainability of the ecological dimension to control the quality of raw water in the PLTMH

Location: (1) Water discharge, (2) Protected Areas, (3) Conservation and (4) Landmarks Land.


2.2. Sustainability analysis (economic aspect)

Based on the sustainability analysis of the economic dimension of (Figure 5) shows that the value

of the economic dimension of sustainability indices of 63.18%. The value of economic sustainability

index greater than 50. This implies that the economic dimension in the management of PLTMH

entered in the category of sustainable enough (Kavanagh, 2001)

Figure 5. Economic sustainability index Figure 6. Economic leverage factor

Leverage analysis results can be seen as Figure 6, There are three attributes that are sensitive to the

economic dimension of sustainability indices: (1) Increased economic activity, (2) Operating costs

PLTHMH and (3) Impact on society

2.3 Sustainability analysis (social aspect)

In Figure 7. shown that the value of the sustainability index for the social dimension is 52.20% (with

a sustainability scale 0-100, and the index values> 50). This shows that based on the criteria Kavanagh

(2001), the status of the social dimension of sustainability for PLTHMH Locations included in the

sustainable category.

Figure 7. Social sustainability index Figure 8. Social leverage fastor

Based on the leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are most sensitive to the

sustainability value of the social dimension of indices, namely (1) Public participation in


environmental management, (2) program development and community empowerment (3) The response

of local communities to use renewable energy.

2.4 Sustainability analysis (technology aspect)

In this study, the sustainability index value for the technological dimension of is 38.34% (with a

sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of index <50). This shows that based on the criteria Kavanagh

(2001), the status of the dimensions of sustainability for on-site MHP technology fall into the category

of less sustainable.

Figure 9. Technoloy sustainability index Figure 10. Technology leverage factor

Leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are sensitive to the sustainability technological

dimension of indices are (1) the power capacity of the MHP, (2) availability of facilities and

infrastructure MHP, (3) Public access to economic utility. The first sensitive attributes should be noted

that the dimensions of technology continues with good or even very good is the power capacity of the

MHP

2.5 Sustainability analysis (institutional aspect)

In Figure 11 shows that the sustainability index values for the dimensions of institutional is 35.22%

(with a sustainability scale 0-100, and the value of index <50). This shows that based on the criteria

Kavanagh (2001), the status of sustainability for institutional dimension in Location MHP fall into the

category of less sustainable.


Figure 11. Institution sustainability index Figure 12. Instutional leverage factor

Based on the leverage analysis results there are three attributes that are sensitive to the sustainability

indices, institutional dimension which is (1) Coordination bureaucracy, (2) Support from government /

private to the MHP, (3) community empowerment. These attributes need to be managed properly so

that the value of the legal dimension of sustainability indices rose for the future.

2.6 Modeling of Sustainability Micro Hydro

Synthesis results of development builds based on approach of the hard systems and soft systems .

Drive system is the result of input from the dynamic model has been built . While the soft system is the

input of the sustainability analysis ( MDS ) . Synthesis is the basis for the formulation of the results of

a conceptual model of an integrated management policy MHP . The conceptual model suggests a

variety of integrated efforts of all relevant institutions in order to support the achievement of

management objectives in a sustainable MHP . In general , these efforts carried out systematically and

comprehensively through an increase in dimensional approaches Ecology , Technology , Institutional ,

Economic , Social . In particular , the conceptual model emphasizing efforts to achieve management

objectives MHP . To achieve these objectives required public participation in environmental

management to maintain a stable flow of water that would keep the power capacity of micro power

plants , resulting in an increase in economic activity at the site of the MHP . The entire bureaucracy

requires proper coordination in order to achieve sustainable management of MHP .

Management of micro hydro power plant model sustained in this study is divided into three sub model

(1) environment sub model , (2) technology sub model and (3) the economic sub model. The third sub-

model is a series of several variables that are interconnected and interact between one element with

other elements to form a model for the management of micro hydro power plants are sustainable

(Appendix 1).

III. CONCLUSIONS

Results of MDS analysis using the method of adaptation rapfish sustainability index values obtained

for the ecological dimensions is 67.22% with a status quite sustainable, economic dimensions is

63.18% with a fairly sustainable status, the social dimension is 64.20% with a fairly sustainable status,

technological dimensions is 38.34% with less ongoing status, and institutional dimensions of

approximately 35.22% to the ongoing status (Appendix 2).

Based on SEM analysis, MDS and obtained montecarlo five key factors (determinants) for the

successful management of MHP (1) Water discharge, (2) Increased economic activity, (3) Public


participation in environmental management, (4) the power capacity of the MHP, and (5) Coordination

bureaucracy (attachment 2).

Simulation models which is most effective way to support the use of sustainable renewable energy

micro hydro is optimistic simulation models with alternative (Attachment 3), a combination of

policies:

a. The rate of population growth can be reduced from the previous 3.4% to 2.4% per year

b. Average conservation efforts are increasing to 5%

c. The stable technology, spare parts of equipment micro-hydro power plants

d. Economic stability of the community and no additional residents from other villages

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Attachment 1

Microhydro Causal Loop Diagram & Stock-flow Model

Population

Housing

+Industry

+

Land using plan-

+ -Conservation area

-

Water debit

Electicity usage

-

-

Electricity produced

-

-

+

-

+

Economic activity

Buying power

+

+

+

+

Conservation awareness

+

Conservation Effort

Conservation fund

Income

Microhydro capasity

+

+

+

++

+

+

Microhydro Causal Loop Diagram

POPULATION

Growth

Reduction

AVERAGE_OF_ELECTRICITY_PRICE_PERKWH

Laju_Penghasilan

ELECTRICITY_SELLING

Power_Plant_investaton

Electricity_sold

ELECTRICITY_PRODUCED

Power_Plant_Investation_FractionElectricity_Price

Elctricity_Sold_Fraction

Income_Fraction

Reduction_Rate

Growth_Rate

Investation_to_Electricity_Produced_Convertion

Electricity_Usage_Fraction

Electricity_Usage_Rate

Debit_Convertion_Factor

Debit_to_Electrcity_Produced_Convertion

Electricity_Produced_Rate

POWER_PLANT_CAPASITY_PERCENTAGE

ECONOMIC_ACTIVITY

Conservation_Rate

Conservation_Fund_Fraction

WATER_DEBIT_PERCENTAGE

CONSERVATION_LAND_PERCENTAGE

INLET_DEBIT

OUTLET_DEBIT

Outlet_Debit_Fraction

CONSERVATION_EFFORT

Faktor_Pendorong_Upaya_Konservasi

Conservation_PolicyMicrohidro_Management_Inchrage

CONSERVATION_AWARENESS

WATER_DEBIT_CONTINUITY

Degradation_Rate

Conservation_Ratei

Degradation_Fraction

Conservation_Awareness_Convertion_Factor

Stock-flow Model


Attachment 2

Sustainability Analysis and Leverage Factor

Kite diagram for MHP sustainability index (reviewed from raw water quality aspect)

The leverage factor for MHP sustainability

Dimensions The Leverage

Ecology

(1) Water debit,

(2) Conservation area,

(3) Conservartion efforts

(4) Landscap

Economi

(1) Increasing of economic activity,

(2) MHP operational cost

(3) Impact to the comminity

Social

(1) Community participation for environmental management,

(2) Community empowering development program,

(3) Local community response to the renewable energy utilization

Technology

(1) MHP capacity,

(2) MHP infrastructure,

(3) Community access to the economic utility

Institutional

(1) Bureaucracy doordination,

(2) Government/private supporting for MHP,

(3) Community empowerment


Attachment 3

Scenario Model Simulation

Environmental submodel simulation (% conservation area) Environmental submodel simulation (%

debit)

Economic submodel simulation (population) Economic submodel simulation (electricity

sales)

-

Time

PE

RS

EN

_LA

HA

N_K

ON

SE

RV

AS

I

2.005 2.010 2.015

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3

12

3

1

2

3

-

Time

PE

RS

EN

_LA

JU

_D

EB

IT_A

IR

2.005 2.010 2.015

2

4

6

8

10

1 2 3

12

3

12

3

-

Time

PE

ND

UD

UK

2.005 2.010 2.015

7.500

8.000

8.500

1 2 3

1 2 3

12

3

-

Time

PE

NJU

ALA

N_D

AY

A_L

IST

RIK

2.005 2.010 2.015

105.000.000

105.001.000

105.002.000

105.003.000

105.004.000

12 3

12

3

1

2

3

modeling of sustainable micro hydro power plant (mhp)

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