mobile landscape
TRANSCRIPT
MOBILE LANDSCAPE
A snapshot for 2010
Why mobile? Why now?
Also, why “snapshot”?
A little context helps…
But First…
What is a computer?
What is a computer?
Input
What is a computer?
Input Processor / Storage
What is a computer?
Input Processor / Storage Output
What is a computer?
Input Processor / Storage Output
Think about that…
Computing Power
1995
Power Macintosh 7200/75
$1700
75MHz PowerPC 601 Processor
16 MB RAM
2010
iPhone 3Gs
$500
600MHz ARM Processor
256 MB RAM
Data Transfer Rates
My Facebook Page is 210K…
My Facebook Page is 210K
56 kilobits per second
30 seconds to download
56K Modem
My Facebook Page is 210K
56 kilobits per second
30 seconds to download
128 – 384 kilobits per second (moving)
4 to 8 seconds to download
56K Modem 3G Network
What’s that mean?
• Faster• Cheaper• Portable
What’s that mean?
The 5th Computing Cycle!
Um, what were the other four?
The 5th Computing Cycle!
Glad you asked!
The 5th Computing Cycle!
The 5 cycles of computing
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s Mini Computing – 1970s Personal Computing – 1980s Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s
The 5 cycles of computing
Mainframe Computing – 1960s (1 Million units) Mini Computing – 1970s (10 Million units) Personal Computing – 1980s (100 Million units) Desktop Internet Computing – 1990s (1 Billion
units) Mobile Internet Computing – 2000s (10 Billion
units)
Reduce Usage Friction Via Better Processor Power + Improved User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Expanded Services + Lower Prices = 10X More Devices
Why is this happening?
A Perfect Storm of Convergence
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point”
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point” Video Adoption Rates
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting
Consumers
A Perfect Storm of Convergence 3G Networks Hitting the “Inflection
Point” Video Adoption Rates VoIP Technology The Cloud Social Networks as Platforms Connecting
Consumers Impressive Mobile Devices
“Regarding the pace of change, we believe more users will likely connect to the Internet via mobile devices than desktop PCs within 5 years” - Morgan Stanley
3G Networks
3G Defined
3G Defined
3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
3G Defined
3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.
3G Defined
3G Stands for 3rd-generation. Analog cellular phones were the first generation. Digital phones marked the second generation (2G).
3G is loosely defined, but generally includes high data speeds, always-on data access, and greater voice capacity.
The high data speeds are possibly the most prominent feature, and certainly the most hyped. They enable such advanced features as live, streaming video.
2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
8%11%
15%
21%
27%
33%
38%43%
Global 3G+ Penetration 2007 – 2014
Global 3G+ Penetra-tion
2010 ‘Mainstream’ Inflection
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%
8%11%
15%
21%
27%
33%
38%43%
Global 3G+ Penetration 2007 – 2014
Global 3G+ Penetra-tion
3G Growth
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
Japanese Penetration = 87%
3G Growth
Concentrated in Developed Markets USA Now leading in Users & Innovation Surpassed Japan Users in Q1 2009
103,110,000 US Subscribers 94,813,000 Japanese Subscribers
Japanese Penetration = 87% US Penetration = 37%
Other Wireless Options…
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 2008
Other Wireless Options…
GPS – 421MM+ Chipsets sold PDAs = 60% of GPS Shipments
Wi-Fi – 319MM chipsets sold in 2008Estimate 60% of iPhone/iTouch usage may be on Wi-Fi providing a crucial (and 10X faster) offload to stressed 3G networks
1.3B Bluetooth enabled devices shipped in 20082B+ Bluetooth devices currently in use
Video Adoption Rates
Consumers Have Voted
Consumers Have Voted
466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
Consumers Have Voted
466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y)
Consumers Have Voted
466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)
109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)
Consumers Have Voted
466MM YouTube Global Users (+35% Y/Y)73B Minutes of Video Watched (+70% Y/Y)
42 MM Hulu US Users (+77% Y/Y) 167 Online Video USA Users (+14% Y/Y)
109B Minutes of Video Watched (+169% Y/Y)
54 MM Global Internet-enabled set top boxes (Xbox360, Sony PS3, TiVo, Slingbox, Vudu, Roku…) (+59% Y/Y) – Transforming TVs into internet streaming / on-demand video terminals
Video Driving Growth
Video Driving Growth
Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
Video Driving Growth
Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic took
Video Driving Growth
Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
Video Driving Growth
Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013
Video Driving Growth
Mobile data traffic will double every year through 2013, increasing 66 times
Mobile data traffic will increase a thousand-fold in half the time fixed data traffic tookThe internet grew from 1 petabyte to 1 exabyte in 14 years. Mobile will do the same in seven.
Almost 64% of the world’s mobile traffic will be video by 2013Mobile video has the highest growth rate ever measured by the “Cisco VNI forecast”.
Video Driving Growth
Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013
Video Driving Growth
Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
Video Driving Growth
Mobile broadband handsets with higher than 3G speeds and laptop aircards will drive over 80% of global mobile traffic by 2013A single high-end phone like the iPhone/Android generates more data traffic than 30 basic-feature cell phones. A laptop aircard generates more data traffic than 450 basic-feature cell phones.
Latin America will have the strongest growth of any region (166% CAGR)
VoIP (Voice Over IP)
Whither Skype?
Whither Skype?
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
Whither Skype?
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y)
Whither Skype?
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes
Whither Skype?
If VoIP Leader Skype Were a Carrier, it Would Be the Largest “Carrier” in the World
521MM registered Users (+41% Y/Y) 8% of Cross-Border Calling Minutes
Rank Company Type Region Subscribers
1 China Mobile Wireless China 493
2 Vodafone Wireless Europe 303
3 Telefonica/Moviles
Wireless Europe/LatAm 206
4 China Telecom Wireline China 194
5 America Movil Wireless LatAm 194
6 Telenor Wireless Europe/Asia 172
7 T-Mobile Wireless Europe/USA 150
The Cloud
The Growing Cloud…
The Growing Cloud…
Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details are abstracted from the users who no longer need knowledge of, expertise in, or control over the technology infrastructure "in the cloud" that supports them. Cloud computing describes a new supplement, consumption and delivery model for IT services based on Internet, and it typically involves the provision of dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources as a service over the Internet.
The Growing Cloud…
Cloud computing is Internet- ("cloud-") based development and use of computer technology ("computing"). In concept, it is a paradigm shift whereby details blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds
Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS)
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds
Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds
Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure,
Amazon)
You Don’t NEED a Hard Drive Flickr was the “A-Ha Moment” for me Google Docs and Microsoft Office Live
Followed Some Popular Categories of Clouds
Software as an “On Demand” Service (SaaS) Utility Computing Platforms (Google App Engine, MS Azure,
Amazon) My House has a Cloud
Social Networks as Platforms
Facebook = 500MM + Application Downloads
Category # of Apps % of Total Top 100 Apps’ MAUs (MM)
# of Apps with 1MM+ MAUs
Games 13,537 23 418 56
Lifestyles 4,778 8 42 8
Utilities 4,604 8 59 8
Education 2,279 4 66 5
Entertainment
2,015 3 76 11
Business 1,981 3 5 1
Sports 1,431 2 5 0
Just for Fun 400 1 44 10
Friends & Family
61 0 37 3
Overall 59,427 752 102
Facebook Mobile…
Facebook Mobile…
There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices
Facebook Mobile…
There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
Facebook Mobile…
There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.
Facebook Mobile…
There are more than 65MM active users currently accessing Facebook through their mobile devices.
People that use Facebook on their mobile devices are almost 50% more active on Facebook than non-mobile users.
There are more than 180 mobile operators in 60 countries working to deploy and promote Facebook mobile products.
Facebook is the Number One free iPhone App.
Facebook + Apple iPhone
Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms
Facebook + Apple iPhone
Driving independent / overlapping innovation / Usage in Social Networking + Mobile Platforms
430MM Users(+137% Y/Y)
350K+ Apps500MM+
Downloads
57MM Users(+163% Y/Y)
100K+ Apps2B+
Downloads
Facebook iPhone/iTouch
SocialNetworkin
gMobile
Impressive Mobile Devices
Impressive Mobile Devices
“Apple’s iPhone + iTouch + App Store Launches Over the Past 2.5 Years Created the Spark for Mobile Internet Liftoff as Microsoft’s Launch of Windows 3.0 did for the PC in 1990 and the Netscape Browser (and its IPO) did for the desktop Internet in 1995” - Morgan Stanley
How Big?
How Big?
Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in History
How Big?
Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
How Big?
Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App Downloads
How Big?
Fastest New Tech Device / Ecosystem Ramp in HistoryGreat UI + Developer Tools + Hardware + Distribution + Powerful Connectivity (3G + WiFi)Nintendo Wii, Nintendo DS, Sony PSP, Apple iPod, RIM Blackberry
Apple iPhone / iTouch = 2B App DownloadsAbout 35 per UserGames, Books, Entertainment Lead
How Big?
Category # of Apps (000s)
% of Total
# of Paid Apps (000s)
Paid as % of Category Total
Games 22.6 19.1% 15.7 69%
Entertainment
17.2 14.6 12.5 72
Books 14.8 12.5 13.5 91
Travel 7.9 6.7 7.1 89
Utilities 7.7 6.5 5.5 71
Education 7.7 6.5 6.4 83
Lifestyle 6.7 5.6 4.7 71
Reference 4.7 4.0 3.9 82
Music 4.0 3.4 2.2 56
Sports 3.7 3.1 2.8 76
Total 118.4 89.1 75%
Top Free Apps
Name Category Description
Facebook Social Networking
Mobile front end to site.
Google Earth Travel View aerial maps of city/area. Touch zoom.
Pandora Music Customized internet radio stations.
Tap Tap Revenge
Games Music game. Includes online play.
Shazam Music IDs artist/song title/album via audio input.
Pac-Man Lite Games 3D remake using touch controls.
Backgrounds Entertainment iPhone backgrounds for your BG library.
Touch Hockey Games Interactive air hockey game. (online)
Labyrinth Lite Games Tilt control puzzle game.
Flashlight Utilities Fills the screen with a bright light.
iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share
iPho
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Sym
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Andr
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RIMPa
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Win
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Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%HTML Mobile Page Views Share (Net Applications)
Mobile Internet + Apps Usage (AdMob)
iPhone + Android Mobile Internet Usage Much Higher than Shipment Share
iPho
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Sym
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Andr
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RIMPa
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Win
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Other
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%HTML Mobile Page Views Share (Net Applications)
Mobile Internet + Apps Usage (AdMob)
High Probability of On-Going Share Gains Based on Consumer Voting
Most / Best Apps Win!
iPhone App Store
Android App Market
Blackberry App World
Windows Mobile Market
Launch Date 7/08 10/08 4/09 Q2/10 (E)
Number of Apps
100K+ 20K 3.5K --
Apps Downloaded
2B+ 50MM -- --
Billing System
iTunes Google Checkout
PayPal Carrier/Credit Card
Developer Share
70% 70% 80% 70%
Yeah, so?
“This is a bit like looking at the emergence of the railroads in the 1800s and saying, ‘I have no interest in going to Chicago. What’s the big Deal?’” - Joshua Michele-Ross
Yeah, so?
Coordination Replaces Planning
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter)
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand”
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely
coordinated agents in constant contact
Coordination Replaces Planning
Real-time Communications (Twitter) Just-in-Time Coordination over planning More efficient, more flexible Think Army, “Situation at hand” Spontaneous gathering, loosely
coordinated agents in constant contact Increased role for employees
More than Phones & Computers
More than Phones & Computers
Data Gathering devices
More than Phones & Computers
Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware
(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
More than Phones & Computers
Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware
(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
Environmental Sensor
More than Phones & Computers
Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware
(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively
accepting input
More than Phones & Computers
Data Gathering devices Location Aware (GPS), Motion Aware
(Accelerometer), Directionally Aware (Compass), Vsiually Aware (Camera), Sonically Aware (Microphone), Always-Connected handheld Computer.
Environmental Sensor Not only connected, but actively
accepting input Track our own behavior (Monitor our
health)
The New Laptop
The New Laptop
Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
The New Laptop
Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
The New Laptop
Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
Increases in processing power and storage capacity
The New Laptop
Apple (and Android) opening up Hardware
Keyboards and palm sized projectors coming soon
Increases in processing power and storage capacity
Mobile devices will become the de facto standard gear for knowledge work
The New Marketplace
The New Marketplace
The Long Tail (Micropayments)
The New Marketplace
The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse
The New Marketplace
The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers
The New Marketplace
The Long Tail (Micropayments) The moment of need or impulse Empowered Customers Peer-to-Peer exchanges
Know This Person
It’s You.
Know This Person