methodology for borrell data borrell methodology 11/30/2011
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METHODOLOGY FOR BORRELL DATA
Borrell Methodology11/30/2011
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The Borrell Ad Spend Model
Under continuous development since 1984
NAA Lifetime Achievement Award to chief architect Kip Cassino, Executive Vice-President
In long-term use by major media companies
Advertiser-centric rather than media-centric
Bottom-up rather than top-down
Based on multiple sources
…measuring ad spending would be easy
If the world had only one market…
If the world only had one market…
…markets are all over the place.
Unfortunately…
If the world only had one market…
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Ad spending generated in a market…
…may go anywhere. Ad spending from any other market may end up in the market you’re trying to measure.
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How we do it…
Borrell separates ad spending that’s coming in from ad spending going out…
So, we can measure:• Ad spending generated in a market.• Ad spending directed to a market
from someplace else.• Ad spending generated and spent
locally.
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We start with two databases…
#1 - Estimates ad spending by more than 20 millionUS companies
#2 - Estimates receipts for all US Media Companies
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At the National Level…
1 = 2 !That is, total US ad spending
must equaltotal receipts for USmedia companies.
=
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Database 1 (Spending) Sources…
Dun & Bradstreet (updated quarterly) IRS The Postal Service Annual reports & 10K’s More than 40 additional secondary sources (magazines, association reports, surveys, articles), including – Editor & Publisher, Advertising Age, etc.
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We don’t stop here!
Every company’s spending estimate is modified to fit specific markets in
two ways.
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Two Modifications
First, every estimate is altered to fit the media demand pattern
of its specific market,using data from:
Nielsen, Scarborough, Demographics Now, Claritas and
other sources.
Second, the estimates are not expressed as percent of revenue…but as Per Employee ad expenditures.
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In general ad spending increases as businesses get
larger…
…the per employee percentage of ad spending actually drops.
Each SIC has its own distinct pattern. We measure and
account for that.
But…
Employees are key!
%$
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Database 2 (Receipts) Sources…
Dun & Bradstreet Annual reports & 10K’s More than 40 additional secondary sources (magazines, association reports, surveys, articles), including –
NAA RAB DMA TVB IAB YPPAMedia Week, OMMA, Advertising Age , Our own survey of media company revenues with 4,800+ companies represented.
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Comparisons Made
Each media estimate is compared to other sources (including McCann Erickson, Veronis Suhler, Jupiter, Forrester and others) to insure accuracy.
When discrepancies are found, that are not due to methodology or definitions, the estimates are re-computed.
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Once the two databases agree…
… the resulting estimates (by SIC and media choice) are
distributed to all US counties.
Distribution to counties is a three-step procedure:
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Once the two databases agree…
Step 1: Allocation
Media estimates are allocated to each county
using the weighted values of several variables,
including:• households• retail sales
• median income• gross regional product
• population• median age
Step 2: Replacement
Whenever possible, allocated estimates are
replaced by actual known information. Typically, about
25% of the estimates are
replaced.
Step 3: RecalculationAfter replacement,
the sum of the estimateswill no longer foot to the
originalnational totals.
So, all un-replaced estimates are
indexed and recalculated.
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To complete a market estimate, we must return to Database 1 – Ad spending estimates for every
US business.
Not yet!
All of our work so far has produced estimates of ad spending directed to each market. We still don’t know how much is local.
Is it Soup yet?
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Estimates fromDatabase 2
The first contains the ad spending generated in the measured market.
The second contains ad spendingdirected to the market.
3 21
Think of three Glasses…
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The contents of both must be “poured”…
…into the third glass – which represents ad spending in the measured market.
…poured into one
3
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For some media, the contents of thefirst two glasses will not fill the
third. More ad spending must be
“imported” to make up the difference.
Imports
3
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For some media, the contents of the first two glasses will more than fill the
third. The ad spending “overflow”
must be “exported” to other markets.
Exports
3
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The Formula is Simple
Ad Spending generated in a market(Database #1)
- “Exports”
+ “Imports”
MUST = Ad Spending directed to a market
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• Used by many of the nation’s largest Media Companies for years.
• Used by Advo, TV networks, ad agencies, telecommunications companies…
• Has shown to be accurate to within 3-5 percent In markets where
we can get “on the ground” evidence.
• According to Booz Allen: “Only methodology that could work.”
How good is the Result?
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What they’re saying….
“Accurate enough to be actionable”− Borrell client
“Solid guidance on scale and direction”− Another Borrell client
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Our Model in Action - Examples
Political Ad Spending Borrell Projected $20 million Competitors projected $75 million Actual was $19.5 million
Directories Projected decline of yellow pages of 37% Competitors had it at 7% Later projections pegged it closer to 35%
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Thanks!
For More Information on Upcoming Webinars, please visit
http://compass.borrellassociates.com