meat mo economic board - european commission · 3/16/2017  · meat market observatory last update...

118
Meat Market Observatory 16 March 2017 o The 3 rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory (Meat MO) took place on 16 March 2017, with the participation of experts from the various steps in the meat supply chain. o To explicit the factual basis on which the Observatory is operating, DG AGRI services provided a presentation on data sourcing and market transparency (See Annex I) and presented a pilot project for a new web portal on prices, production and export data. o Views were exchanged on the use of available data and on the possibilities to improve market transparency along the supply chain. Sound data on consumption and wholesale prices for meat were identified as the most important data need. o The exchange of views on the beef and veal and pigmeat market situation was based on factual presentations by DG AGRI (see Annexes II and III). o For pigmeat, discussions showed a moderate optimism. The domestic market supports reasonable prices and the exceptionally good export performance contributes to producers' price recovery and a re-balancing of the market. Low feed costs and a favourable exchange rate had also a positive impact on the sector. o Concerns relate to the high dependence on exports to China. Diversifying export markets remains a priority for the EU pigmeat sector. o For beef and veal, discussions showed that the EU beef market seems to be regaining balance following a very difficult year 2016. However pressure on producer prices remains and a considerable number of EU producers are facing serious financial difficulties. o The current and future evolution of internal EU consumption and the impact of FTAs and Brexit are matters of major concern. o Positive aspects are relatively low feed costs and good export performance. Exports of live bovines are essential for internal market balance. o Eurocommerce provided a presentation (See Annex IV) on trends in sales of meat products from a retail perspective. o Overall, exports are being essential to keep the market balanced. Efforts to gain and improve market access must continue. o Overall, the members of the Economic Board expressed growing concern on declining trends in meat consumption. That poses a major challenge for the future of the sector. o The next meeting of the Meat MO Economic Board is scheduled for 13 June 2017. - Meat MO Economic Board Last update : 23.03.2017

Upload: others

Post on 12-Aug-2020

0 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Meat Market Observatory

16 March 2017

o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

(Meat MO) took place on 16 March 2017, with the participation of experts from the various steps in the meat

supply chain.

o To explicit the factual basis on which

the Observatory is operating, DG AGRI services provided a presentation on data sourcing and market

transparency (See Annex I) and presented a pilot project for a new web portal on prices, production and

export data.

o Views were exchanged on the use of available data and on the possibilities

to improve market transparency along the supply chain. Sound data on consumption and wholesale prices for

meat were identified as the most important data need.

o The exchange of views on the beef

and veal and pigmeat market situation was based on factual presentations by DG AGRI (see

Annexes II and III).

o For pigmeat, discussions showed a moderate optimism. The domestic

market supports reasonable prices and the exceptionally good export performance contributes to producers'

price recovery and a re-balancing of the market. Low feed costs and a favourable exchange rate had also a

positive impact on the sector.

o Concerns relate to the high dependence on exports to China.

Diversifying export markets remains a priority for the EU pigmeat sector.

o For beef and veal, discussions showed that the EU beef market seems to be regaining balance following a very

difficult year 2016. However pressure on producer prices remains and a

considerable number of EU producers are facing serious financial difficulties.

o The current and future evolution of

internal EU consumption and the impact of FTAs and Brexit are matters of major concern.

o Positive aspects are relatively low feed costs and good export performance. Exports of live bovines

are essential for internal market balance.

o Eurocommerce provided a

presentation (See Annex IV) on trends in sales of meat products from a retail perspective.

o Overall, exports are being essential to keep the market balanced. Efforts to gain and improve market access must

continue.

o Overall, the members of the Economic Board expressed growing concern on

declining trends in meat consumption. That poses a major challenge for the future of the sector.

o The next meeting of the Meat MO Economic Board is scheduled for 13 June 2017.

– -

Meat MO Economic Board

Last update : 23.03.2017

Page 2: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Annex I

Page 3: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DATA SOURCING FOR IMPROVED MARKET TRANSPARENCY

Meat Market Observatory

Economic Board Meeting

16 March 2016

Page 4: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Reflexion and exchange of views on:

• Data available

• Data gaps

• Suggestions for:

• possible options to address current data gaps

• increase transparency and provide additional information tools to supply chain actors

Page 5: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Data currently available and used

• Producer's prices

• Producer's production data

• Trade data

Page 6: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory
Page 7: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory
Page 8: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory
Page 9: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Main data gaps in key market indicators

• Consumption data

• Price indicators in processing, wholesale and retail stages

• Production in processing, wholesale and retail stages

Page 10: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

The future?

• Example: Agricultural Markets Task Force recommendations

What can we do now?

• Inventory of existing data sources (and assess appropriateness…)

• Improve dissemination

• Elaborate consensuated indicators with existing data

• Any other ideas?

Page 11: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Existing data sources

• Consumption:

• Official EU data: Eurostat-Consumption expenditure of private households (hbs_str_t221)

• Balance sheets (outlooks, etc…)

• Production:

• Official EU data: Eurostat-Production in industry - monthly data (sts_inpr_m)

• Prices

• Official EU data: Eurostat-Producer prices in industry, total - monthly data (sts_inpp_m), Food Price Monitoring Tool (FPMT)

Page 12: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Existing data sources

• Other?:

• National data: ex, France AgriMer, Food Prices Observatory in Spain

• Private data: consultants

• Sectorial data

Page 13: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Existing data sources

• Production and consumption: of very limited use because different reasons (outdated datasets, not enough detail, etc…

• Prices: potential use of:

• FPMT

• National Observatories (FR and ES)

Page 14: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Food Price Monitoring Tool (FPMT)

96

97

98

99

100

101

102

103

104

105

20

15

M0

1

20

15

M0

2

20

15

M0

3

20

15

M0

4

20

15

M0

5

20

15

M0

6

20

15

M0

7

20

15

M0

8

20

15

M0

9

20

15

M1

0

20

15

M1

1

20

15

M1

2

20

16

M0

1

20

16

M0

2

20

16

M0

3

20

16

M0

4

20

16

M0

5

20

16

M0

6

20

16

M0

7

20

16

M0

8

20

16

M0

9

20

16

M1

0

20

16

M1

1

20

16

M1

2

20

17

M0

1

Consumer Price Index (EUROSTAT FPMT)

Beef and veal

Pork

Index, 2010=100

Example of data use:

Page 15: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Example: FranceAgriMer (FR)

Example of data use:

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

20,00

Gros: Gros Bovins (carcasse)

Gros: Découpe viande

Détail: Discount

Détail: GMS

Page 16: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Example: Observatorio de Precios de los Alimentos (ES)

Example of data use:

0,00

2,00

4,00

6,00

8,00

10,00

12,00

14,00

16,00

18,00

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

S7

S8

S9

S10

S11

S12

S13

S14

S15

S16

S17

S18

S19

S20

S21

S22

S23

S24

S25

S26

S27

S28

S29

S30

S31

S32

S33

S34

S35

S36

S37

S38

S39

S40

S41

S42

S43

S44

S45

S46

S47

S48

S49

S50

S51

S52

Precio origen: Ternera de 1ª A

Precio destino: Ternera de 1ª A

Page 17: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Happy to discuss

Page 18: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Annex II

Page 19: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Meat Market Observatory – Economic Board Meeting 16 March 2017

PIGMEAT MARKET SITUATION

Page 20: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

EXCHANGE RATE INDEX/EURO

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Index of daily exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the Euro (02/01/14 = 100)

US Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Russian Rouble Chinese Yuan

Page 21: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Feed costs

Page 22: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

World cereal prices ($/t)

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

FEED COSTS

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

$ /

to

nn

e

Wheat - Black Sea Milling $ 191

Wheat - US SRW Gulf $ 195

Wheat - FR Cl. 1 Rouen $ 192

Maize - FR Bordeaux $ 179

Maize - US 3YC Gulf $ 172

Barley-FR Dlvd Rouen feed $ 156

Page 23: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Soyabeans export prices $/ton (fob)

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

$ /

to

nn

e

US 2Y Gulf - $ 413

Ukraine - $ 399

Brazil Paranagua - $ 409

Argentina Up River - $ 403

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

Page 24: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Soyameal world quotations $/ton

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17

$/to

nne

Brazil Paranagua

US Gulf

Argentina Up River

Source: IGC

331.0 360.0340.0

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

Page 25: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

R E M A I N D E R

P I G

EU E V O L U T I O N

41 47 47 54 52 62 71 69 60 51 49 50 50 50 48 58 69 82 82 71 71 55 46 39 38 42 46 56 63 66 63 50 49 43 39 36 41 42 45 53 53 57 61 54 44 37 35 38 34 34 40 52 62 64 68 60 52 52 45 43

0

50

100

150

200

250

I 2012 I 2013 I 2014 I 2015 I 2016 I

In E

uro

s

Remainder for pig fattening

Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price Average remainder

Page 26: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

R E M A I N D E R

P I G

EU E V O L U T I O N

41 42 45 53 53 57 61 54 44 37 35 38 34 34 40 52 62 64 68 60 52 52 45 430

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

In E

uro

s

Remainder for pig fattening

Remainder Cost of piglet Feed cost Pig carcass price Average remainder

Page 27: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Production

Page 28: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

S U R V E Y

IN HEADS

Piglets, less than20 kg

Pigs, from 20 kgto less than 50

kg

Breeding sows Covered SowsSows covered

for the first time

Fattening pigs,from 50 kg to

less than 80 kg

2014 41 832 33 949 12 542 8 603 1 605 27 546

2015 41 705 34 271 12 293 8 411 1 500 27 600

2016 41 212 33 481 12 092 8 284 1 535 27 297

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

1000

hea

ds

Pig populationLivestock survey December 2016

2014 2015 2016Source: Eurostat

2015 = 148 716 Mio2016 = 147 353 Mio (- 0.9%)

Page 29: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

S U R V E Y

IN HEADS

Live swine,

domestic

species

Piglets,

less than

20 kg

Pigs, from

20 kg to

less than

50 kg

Breeding

sows

Covered

Sows

Sows

covered

for the first

time

Fattening

pigs, from

50 kg to

less than

80 kg

2012

2013 146 242 40 828 32 822 12 511 8 540 1 583 27 740

2014 148 331 41 832 33 949 12 542 8 603 1 605 27 546

2015 148 716 41 705 34 271 12 293 8 411 1 500 27 600

2016 147 353 41 212 33 481 12 092 8 284 1 535 27 297

2015/2014 + 0.3% - 0.3% + 0.9% - 2.0% - 2.2% - 6.5% + 0.2%

2016/2015 - 0.9% - 1.2% - 2.3% - 1.6% - 1.5% + 2.4% - 1.1%

LIVESTOCK SURVEY DECEMBER 2016

('000 heads)

Page 30: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

S U R V E Y

IN HEADS

- 0.9%

- 1.2%

- 2.3%

- 1.6%

- 1.5%

+ 2.4%

- 1.1%

- 3.0% - 2.0% - 1.0% + 0.0% + 1.0% + 2.0% + 3.0%

Live swine, domestic species

Piglets, less than 20 kg

Pigs, from 20 kg to less than 50 kg

Breeding sows

Covered Sows

Sows covered for the first time

Fattening pigs, from 50 kg to less than 80 kg

Change in pig populationLivestock survey December 2016 compared to December 2015

Source: Eurostat

Page 31: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter

R.S la ughte r 2 0 16

/

R.S la ughte r 2 0 15

Expe rts GIP 2 0 16

/

GIP 2 0 15

Q1 - 1.6% + 0.3% + 5.0% + 0.1% + 0.3%

Q2 + 0.4% - 1.3% + 3.4% + 2.5% + 0.7%

Q3 + 0.8% + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.5% - 0.3%

Q4 + 1.3% + 2.2% + 1.3% - 0.5% - 2.9%

EU_28 + 0.2% + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.6% - 0.6%

- 6%

- 4%

- 2%

+ 0%

+ 2%

+ 4%

2013 2014 2015 Experts 2016 overGIP 2015

Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and

experts estimations)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Page 32: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter

R.S la ughte r 2 0 17

/

R.S la ughte r 2 0 16

Expe rts GIP 2 0 17

/

GIP 2 0 16

Q1 + 0.3% + 5.0% + 0.1% - 1.4%

Q2 - 1.3% + 3.4% + 2.5% - 0.0%

Q3 + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.5% - 1.0%

Q4 + 2.2% + 1.3% - 0.5% - 1.3%

EU_28 + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.6% - 1.0%

- 6%

- 4%

- 2%

+ 0%

+ 2%

+ 4%

2014 2015 2016 Experts 2017f overGIP 2016

Change in EU pigmeat slaughter (2017 forecast based on GIP and

experts estimations)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Page 33: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

61

86

2

59

80

8

61

65

9

65

39

7

64

94

3

61

83

2

62

49

2

66

27

8

64

63

1

62

40

1

63

40

2

66

12

2

65

00

2

63

38

4

62

82

0

65

26

8

64

49

4

62

80

9

63

16

1

66

42

4

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

Pigmeat Q1 Pigmeat Q2 Pigmeat Q3 Pigmeat Q4

EU pigmeat slaughter (2016 forecast based on GIP and experts estimations)

('000 heads)

2014 2015 Experts 2016 Real slaughter 2016 Experts 2017f

Page 34: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By quarter

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

2013 2014 2015 2016

Pigmeat Q1 61 689 61 862 64 943 65 002 64 494 0 65 422

Pigmeat Q2 60 613 59 808 61 832 63 384 62 809 0 62 814

Pigmeat Q3 60 252 61 659 62 492 62 820 63 161 0 63 817

Pigmeat Q4 64 016 65 397 66 278 65 268 66 424 0 67 306

EU_28 246 571 248 726 255 544 256 474 256 888 259 359

2013 2014 2015 2016Experts 2017f

over GIP 2016

Experts 2017f over

Real Slaughter 2017

Q1 - 1.6% + 0.3% + 5.0% + 0.1% - 1.4% - 100.0%

Q2 + 0.4% - 1.3% + 3.4% + 2.5% - 0.0% - 100.0%

Q3 + 0.8% + 2.3% + 1.3% + 0.5% - 1.0% - 100.0%

Q4 + 1.3% + 2.2% + 1.3% - 1.5% - 1.3%

EU_28 + 1.3% + 0.9% + 2.7% + 0.4% - 1.0%

2017

(In 1000 heads)

Real slaughter

2017Experts 2017f

Eurostat GIP

2016REAL SLAUGHTER by year

Page 35: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

By Year

24

5 9

98

24

6 5

71

24

8 7

26

25

5 5

44

25

7 1

57

200 000

210 000

220 000

230 000

240 000

250 000

260 000

270 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EU pig slaughter by year('000 heads)

+ 0.6%

Source: Eurostat

Page 36: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN HEADS

8.9%

8.3%

8.2%

6.1%

5.7%

4.9%

4.8%

3.5%

2.9%

2.8%

2.5%

1.2%

1.2%

0.6%

0.6%

0.1%

0.0%

-0.1

%

-0.3

%

-1.3

%

-1.5

%

-2.6

%

-3.2

%

-3.4

%

-5.9

%

-7.3

%

-8.5

%

-9.6

%

0.6%

-12%

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

13%

LU BG SI SK LV HU IT HR ES IE PL UK PT NL FR FI DE RO CY SE EE DK CZ AT BE GR LT MT EU28

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 heads)

2016/2015 (up to Dec)

Source= Eurostat

Page 37: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN TONNES

12.1

%

11.9

%

9.5%

8.2%

6.8%

6.2%

5.5%

4.2%

3.9%

3.9%

3.0%

2.3%

2.3%

2.0%

1.1%

1.1%

1.0%

0.9%

0.2%

0.1%

-0.1

%

-1.0

%

-2.0

%

-3.1

%

-3.2

%

-5.7

%

-8.8

%

-11.

5%

1.2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

LU SI HR BG SK LV HU ES IT GR PL UK IE RO NL CY FR EE SE DE PT FI DK AT CZ BE LT MT EU28

Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 tonnes)

2016/2015 (up to Dec)

Source= Eurostat

Page 38: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R O D U C T I O N

IN TONNES

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Pig Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes

2014 2015 2016

Source - Estat-Newcronos

Page 39: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Prices

Page 40: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P I G P R I C E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

EU

Pric

es

EU Prices Evolution since

last week

155.7Average

(S-E)+ 1.0%

156.4Class S + 1.0%

154.4Class E + 1.0%

54.8Piglet + 1.1%€/head

€/1

00

kg

ca

rca

ss w

eig

ht

Evolution since last

month

Evolution since last

year

+ 2.5%

+ 3.0%

+ 1.7%

+ 3.0%

+ 23.6%

+ 23.9%

+ 23.2%

+ 38.0%

10

Page 41: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

E U E V O L U T I O N

AVERAGE CLASSES S & E

115

130

145

160

175

190

EU evolution of the EU pig carcase prices(€/ 100kg/cw)

Average (12 -16) 2015 2016 2017

Latest price (Week 10) : 155.67 EUR/100 kg/cw

Page 42: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

MONTHLY PRICES – CLASS E

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL

AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU

Class E (monthly prices)(€/100 kg)

Feb-2016 Feb-2017

Page 43: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

MONTHLY PRICES – CLASS S

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

BE CZ DK DE EE IE GR ES FR HR LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK EU

Class S (monthly prices)(€/100 kg)

Feb-2016 Feb-2017

Page 44: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R I C E S

C A R C A S E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

MONTHLY PRICES – CLASS R

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

EE ES IT LV LT LU MT SK FI UK EU

Class R (monthly prices)(€/100 kg)

Feb-2016 Feb-2017

Page 45: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

P R I C E S

P I G L E T S

EU E V O L U T I O N

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

EU evolution of the EU average piglet prices(€/head)

Average (12 - 16) Piglet - 2015 Piglet - 2016 Piglet - 2017

Latest price (Week 10) : 54.76 EUR/head

Evolution compared same period last year (Week 10) : + 38.0%

Page 46: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG PRICES

EU, BR, CAN, US

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

World weekly average Pig prices 2015 - 2017 in Euro/ 100kg carcase (EU, Brazil, Canada and USA)

EU US BR CAN

EU = weighted avg of MS prices grade E <55% lean meat. As from 1.1.2014 42% class E and 58%S.US = weekly USDA prices carcase lean hogs Iowa-Minn. 167-187lb (Feedstuffs.com)BR = average of minimum prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/suino)CDN= Ontario Dressed weight FOBas from dec 2010, before Index 100 (agr.gc.ca)

155.67 152.88 145.35 149.58

Page 47: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

PRICE FORECAST

Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV

139.41 148.96 150.71 135.73

128.13 140.26 165.72 154.48

152.51 159.19 165.64 151.98

Class S - 2015

Class S - 2016

Class S - 2017f

120.00

125.00

130.00

135.00

140.00

145.00

150.00

155.00

160.00

165.00

170.00

€/10

0 kg

Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses - Class S

Class S - 2015 Class S - 2016 Class S - 2017f

CLASS S

Page 48: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

PRICE FORECAST

Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV

136.10 144.17 144.63 133.42

127.47 138.61 163.55 154.22

150.49 155.60 163.68 152.11

Class E - 2015

Class E - 2016

Class E - 2017f

120.00

125.00

130.00

135.00

140.00

145.00

150.00

155.00

160.00

165.00

170.00

€/10

0 kg

Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses - Class E

Class E - 2015 Class E - 2016 Class E - 2017f

CLASS E

Page 49: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

PRICE FORECAST

Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV

167.08 162.43 177.90 164.46

154.53 159.55 196.71 200.29

174.12 169.74 183.79 180.96

Class R - 2015

Class R - 2016

Class R - 2017f

100.00

120.00

140.00

160.00

180.00

200.00

220.00

€/10

0 kg

Development of the EU average price for pig carcasses - Class R

Class R - 2015 Class R - 2016 Class R - 2017f

CLASS R

Page 50: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Trade

Page 51: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU trade of PIG products

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU T R A D E B A L A N C E

46 1

35

59 7

20

71 9

37

51 6

41

63 8

00

55 9

18

56 0

77

54 4

99

72 2

76

22 6

12

21 7

30

32 3

68

43 1

79

59 8

38

51 7

89

44 1

93

37 6

55

36 9

67

34 4

87

35 2

45

33 0

66

32 7

60

2 76

4

881

011

943

405

1 08

3 23

0

1 23

8 13

8

1 55

6 96

1

1 54

5 90

7

1 33

1 80

8

1 52

6 56

3

1 50

9 30

2

1 78

0 56

8

1 93

8 45

5

2 08

9 36

3

1 91

0 90

8

2 56

9 08

7

2 38

6 24

5

2 62

7 63

0

3 24

6 48

6

3 24

7 95

6

3 24

2 39

0

3 03

3 83

3

3 36

8 22

4

4 13

9 92

9

344

410

0

250 000

500 000

750 000

1 000 000

1 250 000

1 500 000

1 750 000

2 000 000

2 250 000

2 500 000

2 750 000

3 000 000

3 250 000

3 500 000

3 750 000

4 000 000

4 250 000

4 500 000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Jan-

Jan

17

Ton

ne

s ca

rcas

e w

eig

ht

EU Trade of PIG products

IMPORTS EXPORTS

Page 52: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

IMPORT

Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Dec 15

Sw itzerland 18 731 51% 17 399 50% 18 207 52% 20 225 61% 22 257 68% 10%

Chile 8 756 24% 6 432 19% 3 416 10% 2 896 9% 2 958 9% 2%

Norw ay 2 045 6% 2 202 6% 3 192 9% 2 315 7% 1 964 6% -15%

USA 1 264 3% 1 548 4% 1 498 4% 1 769 5% 1 711 5% -3%

Other 6 171 17% 6 906 20% 8 932 25% 5 862 18% 3 868 12%

Extra-EU 36 967 34 487 35 245 33 066 32 757

% change - 7% + 2% - 6% - 0.9%

2012 2013 2014 Jan-Dec 162015

Page 53: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU imports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

18 207 20 225 22 257

3 4162 896

2 958

8 413 5 281 3 270

35 24433 066 32 757

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (Tonnes c. weight)

Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins

14 419 12 870 16 291

11 289 10 5059 028

13 96310 553 9 604

6 2297 531 6 545

7 0287 772 8 027

13 396

8 857 8 392

66 324

58 089 57 886

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

IMPORTS of PIG Meat into EU-28 (1000 EUR)

Switzerland Chile Norway USA Thailand Other origins

Page 54: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

|Jan 14

2014 |Jan 15

2015 |Jan 16

2016

in Tonnes (carcase weight)

Imports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT OTHERS

Page 55: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG MAIN IMPORTERS

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Japa

n

Japa

n

Mex

ico

(up

to N

ov)

Mex

ico

(up

to N

ov)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

Sout

h Ko

rea

Sout

h Ko

rea

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Cana

da

Cana

da

Aust

ralia

Aust

ralia

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

2015 (up to December) 2016 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Importers of PIG Products (up to December)

Source : GTA Excl. Live animals

Page 56: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU exports of selected PIG products: Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

E U E X P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

Compared to

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % Jan-Dec 15

China 589 805 18.2% 668 386 20.6% 717 033 23.6% 1 141 306 33.9% 1 859 565 44.9% + 63%

Japan 259 997 8.0% 261 324 8.1% 347 721 11.5% 364 746 10.8% 399 507 9.7% + 10%

Hong Kong 381 703 11.8% 388 049 12.0% 408 183 13.5% 292 372 8.7% 362 319 8.8% + 24%

South Korea 145 950 4.5% 108 482 3.3% 227 825 7.5% 241 568 7.2% 259 244 6.3% + 7%

Philippines 74 140 2.3% 102 348 3.2% 202 522 6.7% 191 876 5.7% 215 696 5.2% + 12%

USA 65 116 2.0% 64 710 2.0% 90 985 3.0% 105 123 3.1% 116 215 2.8% + 11%

Australia 54 262 1.7% 51 467 1.6% 73 156 2.4% 102 645 3.0% 99 829 2.4% - 3%

Ukraine 167 129 5.1% 125 540 3.9% 106 780 3.5% 96 631 2.9% 75 782 1.8% - 22%

Vietnam 1 369 0.0% 3 269 0.1% 16 056 0.5% 38 290 1.1% 53 559 1.3% + 40%

Taiw an 15 681 0.5% 11 540 0.4% 52 970 1.7% 53 701 1.6% 47 889 1.2% - 11%

Serbia 21 679 0.7% 28 336 0.9% 62 905 2.1% 47 488 1.4% 41 200 1.0% - 13%

Singapore 35 369 1.1% 28 828 0.9% 40 265 1.3% 40 937 1.2% 39 976 1.0% - 2%

Other 1 435 753 44.2% 1 400 111 14.5% 687 432 13.7% 651 541 14.4% 569 153 13.7%

Extra-EU 3 247 956 3 242 390 3 033 833 3 368 224 4 139 934

% change - 0% - 6% + 11% + 22.9%

2012 2013 2014 Jan-Dec 162015

Page 57: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU exports of selected PIG products Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

717 0321 141 306

1 859 565347 722

364 746

399 507

408 182

292 371

362 319

227 825241 569

259 2441 130 551

1 136 358

1 043 6033 033 833

3 368 224

4 139 934

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

Tons (cw) .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (Tonnes carc. weight)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations

888 7101 651 654

2 800 6491 072 104

1 096 010

1 338 998

585 254

399 300

545 2322 365 0802 353 015

2 308 1455 642 028

6 199 054

7 843 467

0

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

9 000 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

in 1,000 EUR .

EU-28 EXPORTS of PIG Meat (1000 EUR)

China Japan Hong Kong South Korea Philippines Other destinations

Page 58: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Information – South Korea applying agricultural safeguard clause

• South Korea has the possibility to apply the agricultural safeguard clause as provided by Article 3.6 of the EU South Korea Free Trade Agreement in the form of a higher import duty on an originating agricultural good listed in its Schedule in Annex 3 if the aggregate volume of imports of that good in any year exceed a trigger volume set out in the same Annex;

• South Korea notified the EU that as of 20 February 2017 the agricultural safeguard clause is applied;

• The concerned tariff lines are (HSK 2017): 0203-19-1000 and 0203-19-9000, chilled pork meat;

• Trigger level: 176 000 tonnes, exceeded already on 17 January 2017;

• The tariff will rise from 10,2% to 22,5% - this concerns 5th FTA year (1 July 2016 – 30 June 2017).

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

Page 59: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

P i g P r o d u c t s

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

|Jan 14

2014 |Jan 15

2015 |Jan 16

2016

in Tonnes (carcase weight)EU Exports of selected PIG products

FRESH FROZEN FAT LIVE ANIMALS OTHERS

Page 60: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

EU PIG E X P O R T S

T O C H I N A

Full year 2016

Germany600 549

32%

Spain351 526

19%

Denmark305 351

16%

Netherlands223 141

12%

France142 852

8%

Ireland76 335

4%

United Kingdom74 869

4%

Others85 276

5%

Main EU MS exporting pigmeat to China(In tonnes CW)

Germany Spain Denmark Netherlands

France Ireland United Kingdom Others

Page 61: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

W O R L D

P I G M A R K E T

PIG MAIN EXPORTERS

EU

EU

Unite

d St

ates

Unite

d St

ates

Cana

da

Cana

da

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Chin

a +

H. K

ong

Braz

il Braz

il

Mex

ico

(up

to N

ov)

Mex

ico

(up

to N

ov)

Chile

(up

to Ju

l)

Chile

(up

to Ju

l)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

Russ

ia (u

p to

Nov

)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

2015 (up to December) 2016 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Tonn

es

Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to December)

Source : GTA Excl. Live animals

Page 62: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Follow market updates via the Meat Market Observatory

http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/market-observatory/meat/index_en.htm > Pigmeat

DG AGRI G3 16 Mars 2017

Page 63: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Annex III

Page 64: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

BEEF & VEAL MARKET SITUATION

Meat Market Observatory

Economic Board Meeting

16 March 2017

Page 65: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

13 March 2017

EU E V O L U T I O N

T O T A L B O V I N E

L I V E S T O C K

JUNE SURVEY

May/Jun %Var %Var %Var %Var

2016 2016 2016 2016

1000 Hd 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015

BE 2 433 2 521 2 531 2 470 -2.4% 689 734 744 728 -2.1% 495 506 504 493 -2.2% 1 248 1 282 1 283 1 248 -2.7%

BG

CZ

DK 1 603 1 585 1 568 1 583 +1.0% 523 528 524 547 +4.4% 328 318 316 307 -2.8% 752 739 728 730 +0.3%

DE 12 587 12 702 12 653 12 563 -0.7% 3 849 3 874 3 846 3 805 -1.1% 3 011 3 004 3 002 2 983 -0.6% 5 727 5 824 5 805 5 775 -0.5%

EE

IE 6 903 6 926 6 964 7 221 +3.7% 1 968 1 878 2 042 2 126 +4.1% 1 811 1 767 1 705 1 853 +8.7% 3 123 3 280 3 216 3 242 +0.8%

EL

ES 5 822 6 008 6 234 6 445 +3.4% 2 026 2 172 2 281 2 404 +5.4% 801 795 898 899 +0.1% 2 995 3 041 3 055 3 142 +2.9%

FR 19 179 19 286 19 463 19 559 +0.5% 5 497 5 530 5 603 5 638 +0.6% 3 529 3 476 3 540 3 561 +0.6% 10 153 10 280 10 319 10 362 +0.4%

HR

IT 6 053 6 197 6 146 6 183 +0.6% 1 587 1 703 1 670 1 702 +1.9% 1 480 1 445 1 370 1 502 +9.7% 2 986 3 049 3 107 2 979 -4.1%

CY

LV

LT

LU

HU

MT

NL 4 000 4 068 4 134 4 244 +2.7% 1 616 1 643 1 624 1 691 +4.1% 624 634 672 630 -6.3% 1 759 1 791 1 838 1 923 +4.7%

AT 1 939 1 937 1 950 1 933 -0.9% 604 613 622 605 -2.7% 435 424 437 441 +0.8% 900 901 891 887 -0.5%

PL 5 860 5 920 5 961 5 939 -0.4% 1 586 1 609 1 669 1 728 +3.6% 1 422 1 433 1 529 1 576 +3.1% 2 852 2 879 2 763 2 635 -4.6%

PT

RO 2 054 2 069 2 078 2 081 +0.2% 478 479 477 481 +0.9% 236 236 235 240 +2.3% 1 340 1 354 1 366 1 360 -0.4%

SI

SK

FI

SE 1 506 1 493 1 476 1 489 +0.9% 468 472 466 475 +2.0% 381 370 372 375 +0.8% 657 651 638 639 +0.1%

UK 9 843 9 837 9 919 10 019 +1.0% 2 808 2 801 2 912 2 984 +2.5% 2 474 2 384 2 380 2 449 +2.9% 4 561 4 652 4 626 4 587 -0.8%

EU 79 781 80 550 81 076 81 730 +0.8% 23 698 24 035 24 481 24 915 +1.8% 17 027 16 792 16 959 17 308 +2.1% 39 055 39 722 39 635 39 509 -0.3%

Source : EStat Newcronos EU %Var is calculated considering only countries available in 2015 AND 2016

BOVINE 1-2 Year BOVINE > 2 YearTOT LIVESTOCK BOVINE < 1 Year

Page 66: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

13 March 2017

EU E V O L U T I O N

T O T A L B O V I N E

L I V E S T O C K

JUNE SURVEY

May/Jun %Var %Var %Var

2016 2016 2016

1000 Hd 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015

BE 1 007 971 987 971 -1.6% 510 522 524 522 -0.4% 498 449 463 449 -3.0%

BG

CZ

DK 678 664 661 669 +1.2% 576 563 561 572 +2.0% 102 101 99 97 -2.0%

DE 4 896 4 981 4 969 4 957 -0.2% 4 223 4 311 4 287 4 272 -0.3% 673 670 682 685 +0.4%

EE

IE 2 313 2 355 2 372 2 502 +5.5% 1 163 1 226 1 296 1 398 +7.9% 1 150 1 129 1 076 1 104 +2.6%

EL

ES 2 595 2 716 2 678 2 810 +4.9% 823 876 853 827 -3.0% 1 772 1 840 1 825 1 983 +8.7%

FR 7 682 7 759 7 809 7 838 +0.4% 3 545 3 615 3 606 3 576 -0.8% 4 137 4 144 4 203 4 263 +1.4%

HR

IT 2 381 2 382 2 375 2 245 -5.5% 1 989 2 053 2 061 1 948 -5.5% 392 329 314 297 -5.4%

CY

LV

LT

LU

HU

MT

NL 1 637 1 655 1 702 1 811 +6.4% 1 553 1 572 1 622 1 743 +7.5% 84 82 80 68 -15.4%

AT 769 770 762 755 -0.9% 524 534 540 536 -0.6% 245 236 222 218 -1.8%

PL 2 531 2 479 2 444 2 332 -4.6% 2 361 2 310 2 279 2 146 -5.8% 170 169 165 186 +12.6%

PT

RO 1 222 1 224 1 233 1 228 -0.4% 1 208 1 207 1 216 1 216 -0.0% 13 17 17 12 -29.4%

SI

SK

FI

SE 539 531 523 525 +0.4% 346 344 338 331 -2.2% 193 186 184 194 +5.1%

UK 3 393 3 411 3 472 3 490 +0.5% 1 782 1 841 1 895 1 895 idem 1 611 1 569 1 576 1 594 +1.1%

EU 31 642 31 899 31 987 32 132 +0.5% 20 603 20 976 21 078 20 981 -0.5% 11 040 10 922 10 907 11 150 +2.2%

Source : EStat Newcronos EU %Var is calculated considering only countries available in 2015 AND 2016

OTHER COWSTOTAL COWS DAIRY COWS

Page 67: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU E V O L U T I O N

T O T A L B O V I N E

L I V E S T O C K

DECEMBER SURVEY

Dec %Var %Var %Var %Var

2016 2016 2016 2016

1000 Hd 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015

BE 2 441 2 477 2 503 2 499 -0.2% 718 745 749 748 -0.1% 490 490 493 491 -0.4% 1 234 1 243 1 261 1 259 -0.2%

BG 586 562 561 571 +1.8% 150 121 109 120 +10.2% 62 65 64 63 -1.0% 374 376 388 388 -0.0%

CZ 1 332 1 373 1 366 1 340 -2.0% 390 413 403 397 -1.6% 300 311 309 295 -4.6% 642 649 654 648 -0.9%

DK 1 583 1 553 1 566 1 554 -0.8% 528 534 538 540 +0.4% 319 307 302 298 -1.3% 736 713 726 715 -1.5%

DE 12 686 12 742 12 635 12 467 -1.3% 3 878 3 909 3 836 3 795 -1.1% 3 015 3 011 2 993 2 960 -1.1% 5 793 5 823 5 806 5 712 -1.6%

EE 261 265 256 249 -3.0% 71 73 70 68 -3.6% 54 54 53 50 -4.6% 137 138 133 131 -2.1%

IE 6 309 6 243 6 422 6 613 +3.0% 1 893 1 886 2 026 2 077 +2.5% 1 714 1 649 1 660 1 778 +7.1% 2 701 2 709 2 737 2 759 +0.8%

EL 653 659 582 580 -0.3% 167 176 154 151 -1.9% 129 119 103 107 +3.9% 357 365 325 324 -0.3%

ES 5 802 6 079 6 183 6 255 +1.2% 2 068 2 302 2 325 2 360 +1.5% 735 746 786 795 +1.1% 2 999 3 031 3 072 3 099 +0.9%

FR 19 129 19 271 19 406 19 004 -2.1% 5 453 5 546 5 618 5 138 -8.5% 3 441 3 418 3 461 3 493 +0.9% 10 235 10 307 10 327 10 372 +0.4%

HR 442 441 455 462 +1.5% 145 132 148 154 +4.1% 92 88 88 89 +1.1% 205 221 219 219 idem

IT 6 249 6 125 6 156 6 315 +2.6% 1 680 1 654 1 678 1 745 +4.0% 1 457 1 366 1 379 1 448 +5.0% 3 112 3 106 3 099 3 122 +0.7%

CY 57 60 59 21 22 21 9 10 9 27 28 29

LV 406 422 419 412 -1.6% 109 118 114 113 -0.5% 75 75 76 73 -4.8% 222 229 229 227 -1.1%

LT 714 737 723 695 -3.9% 187 192 185 179 -3.2% 144 149 152 142 -6.3% 383 395 385 373 -3.2%

LU 198 201 201 202 +0.9% 55 54 54 54 +1.2% 45 47 45 44 -0.5% 98 100 102 104 +1.3%

HU 782 802 821 838 +2.1% 212 219 220 232 +5.5% 179 176 180 173 -3.9% 393 407 421 434 +3.1%

MT 15 15 15 14 -4.4% 4 4 4 4 -6.9% 4 3 4 3 -12.6% 7 7 7 7 +1.2%

NL 4 090 4 169 4 315 4 294 -0.5% 1 653 1 676 1 707 1 666 -2.4% 627 657 660 644 -2.4% 1 810 1 836 1 948 1 985 +1.9%

AT 1 958 1 961 1 958 1 954 -0.2% 627 629 624 632 +1.2% 435 432 439 432 -1.6% 897 899 894 890 -0.4%

PL 5 590 5 660 5 763 5 985 +3.9% 1 409 1 450 1 617 1 718 +6.2% 1 372 1 445 1 532 1 637 +6.9% 2 809 2 765 2 614 2 630 +0.6%

PT 1 471 1 549 1 606 1 635 +1.8% 425 487 510 499 -2.1% 211 214 240 267 +11.0% 834 848 856 869 +1.6%

RO 2 022 2 069 2 092 2 058 -1.7% 454 463 475 466 -1.9% 238 254 261 257 -1.8% 1 331 1 352 1 357 1 335 -1.6%

SI 461 468 484 489 +1.0% 144 148 153 155 +1.7% 123 122 129 131 +1.1% 194 198 202 203 +0.3%

SK 468 466 457 449 -1.7% 133 130 130 131 +1.0% 98 93 91 85 -6.4% 238 243 236 233 -1.3%

FI 903 907 903 887 -1.8% 302 307 308 302 -1.9% 224 223 221 218 -1.3% 378 378 374 367 -2.0%

SE 1 444 1 436 1 428 1 436 +0.5% 469 473 467 468 +0.2% 342 334 342 344 +0.6% 632 629 619 624 +0.8%

UK 9 682 9 693 9 816 9 942 +1.3% 2 803 2 842 2 967 3 046 +2.7% 2 411 2 332 2 372 2 468 +4.0% 4 468 4 520 4 477 4 429 -1.1%

EU 87 734 88 406 89 152 89 199 +0.1% 26 148 26 705 27 209 26 958 -0.8% 18 342 18 189 18 445 18 786 +1.9% 43 246 43 514 43 498 43 458 -0.0%

Source : EStat Newcronos EU %Var is calculated considering only countries available in 2015 AND 2016

BOVINE 1-2 Year BOVINE > 2 YearTOTAL LIVESTOCK BOVINE < 1 Year

13 March 2017

Page 68: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

L I V E S T O C K

DECEMBER SURVEY

EU E V O L U T I O N

C O W S

Dec %Var %Var %Var

2016 2016 2016

1000 Hd 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015 2013 2014 2015 2016 2015

BE 945 956 974 987 +1.3% 516 519 529 530 +0.2% 429 436 445 457 +2.6%

BG 353 351 359 365 +1.7% 313 302 283 280 -1.2% 40 49 76 86 +12.4%

CZ 553 566 566 561 -1.0% 375 372 369 367 -0.5% 178 194 197 193 -1.9%

DK 664 643 664 657 -1.1% 567 547 570 565 -0.9% 97 96 94 92 -2.1%

DE 4 941 4 969 4 966 4 887 -1.6% 4 268 4 296 4 285 4 218 -1.6% 673 674 681 670 -1.7%

EE 118 118 116 114 -1.4% 98 96 91 86 -4.7% 20 23 25 28 +10.8%

IE 2 168 2 169 2 293 2 337 +1.9% 1 082 1 128 1 240 1 295 +4.5% 1 085 1 041 1 053 1 042 -1.1%

EL 289 305 274 269 -1.8% 130 135 111 113 +1.8% 159 169 163 156 -4.3%

ES 2 633 2 669 2 763 2 780 +0.6% 844 845 844 820 -2.9% 1 789 1 824 1 919 1 960 +2.2%

FR 7 804 7 841 7 872 7 856 -0.2% 3 697 3 699 3 661 3 630 -0.8% 4 106 4 142 4 211 4 225 +0.3%

HR 181 180 171 167 -2.3% 168 159 152 147 -3.3% 13 21 19 20 +5.3%

IT 2 410 2 398 2 386 2 365 -0.9% 2 075 2 069 2 057 2 060 +0.2% 335 329 329 305 -7.5%

CY 25 25 26 25 25 26 0 0 0

LV 194 200 201 199 -1.3% 165 166 162 154 -5.2% 29 34 39 45 +15.0%

LT 345 351 343 333 -2.9% 316 314 301 286 -4.9% 29 37 43 47 +11.0%

LU 78 75 77 80 +3.2% 48 47 49 52 +5.8% 30 29 28 28 -1.3%

HU 345 359 368 379 +3.0% 250 255 251 242 -3.6% 96 104 117 137 +17.1%

MT 6 7 7 7 +1.7% 6 7 6 6 +2.0% 1 0 0 0 -11.5%

NL 1 683 1 694 1 802 1 864 +3.4% 1 597 1 610 1 717 1 794 +4.5% 86 84 85 70 -17.6%

AT 766 768 758 757 -0.3% 530 538 534 540 +1.1% 237 230 224 217 -3.4%

PL 2 442 2 403 2 303 2 334 +1.4% 2 299 2 248 2 134 2 161 +1.2% 143 155 169 174 +2.9%

PT 677 697 719 724 +0.7% 231 234 243 239 -1.8% 446 463 476 485 +1.9%

RO 1 187 1 207 1 207 1 189 -1.6% 1 169 1 188 1 191 1 173 -1.5% 18 18 17 16 -4.2%

SI 166 168 170 171 +0.9% 110 108 113 108 -4.4% 56 60 57 64 +11.4%

SK 199 202 200 195 -2.1% 145 143 139 133 -4.6% 54 59 60 62 +3.6%

FI 338 340 339 333 -1.9% 282 283 282 275 -2.4% 56 57 57 57 +0.5%

SE 522 517 513 514 +0.2% 346 344 337 326 -3.2% 175 173 176 188 +6.7%

UK 3 371 3 419 3 469 3 490 +0.6% 1 817 1 883 1 918 1 920 +0.1% 1 554 1 536 1 551 1 570 +1.2%

EU 35 401 35 596 35 907 35 913 +0.1% 23 468 23 559 23 595 23 519 -0.2% 11 934 12 037 12 312 12 393 +0.7%

Source : EStat Newcronos EU %Var is calculated considering only countries available in 2015 AND 2016

TOTAL COWS DAIRY COWS OTHER COWS

13 March 2017

Page 69: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R O D U C T I O N

% E V O L U T I O N

H E A D S

13 March 2017

Estimates for last month of period : UK Source : EStat - Newcronos

Young cattle

+3.1%

+0.9% +1.6%

+2.6%Meat of

bovine

animals

+5.5% +6.0%

+2.4% +2.3%

+0.7% +0.7%

+6.1% +7.0%

Bullock

Bull

Jan-Dec 15/16

EU15 EU28HEADS

-1.7% -1.2%

Cow

Heifer

Calve

+4.4

%

+1

3.4

%

+4.6

%

+7.6

%

+1.3

%

-3.2

%

+4.8

%

-4.2

%

+1.8

%

+0

.2%

+4.3

%

+4.9

%

+8.0

%

+1

.7%

-5.1

%

+3

.8% +5

.7%

+10.

6%

+7.0

%

-1.2

%

+6.1

%

+4.3

%

+4

.4%

-0.9

%

+0.7

%

-11.

9%

+5.1

%

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

EU : + 3.1%

Page 70: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R O D U C T I O N

% E V O L U T I O N

T O N N E S

13 March 2017

Estimates for last month of period : UK Source : EStat - Newcronos

TONNESEU15 EU28

Jan-Dec 15/16

+5.8%

+5.0%

+3.1%

-1.5%

Cow

Bullock +0.8%

+4.5%

+3.1%

Meat of

bovine

animals

+2.6%+2.1%

+1.0% +2.0%Young cattle

Calve

+5.1%

Heifer

Bull -0.9%

+0.8%

+3.9

%

+2

5.9

%

+5.3

%

+7

.3%

+0.8

%

-1.8

%

+4.3

%

-4.2

%

+1.9

%

+0.7

%

+5.1

%

+2.7

%

+1.8

%

-4.2

%

+3.9

% +6.4

%

+10.

6%

+8.5

%

-0.6

%

+6.5

%

+2.3

%

+2

9.4

%

+6.2

%

+1.8

%

+0.7

%

-8.4

%

+3.2

%

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

+ 30 %

+ 40 %

- 20 %

- 10 %

0%

+ 10 %

+ 20 %

+ 30 %

+ 40 %

BE BG CZ DK DE EE IE EL ES FR HR IT CY LV LT LU HU MT NL AT PL PT RO SI SK FI SE UK

EU : + 2.6%

Page 71: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R O D U C T I O N

H I S T O R I C

T O N N E S

13 March 2017

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1.0

00

To

nn

es

2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

Beef & Veal Production (E28 Slaughtering) - Tonnes

Source : EStat-Newcronos

Page 72: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Dashboard

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

Sources : MSs notifications (Regulation (EC) 1249/2008 and 807/2013

Young Bovines (Z)

Young Bulls (A)

Steers (C)

Cows (D)

Heifers (E)

Average A/C/Z -R3

Live

An

imal

s

210.8

2.39

2.33

2.34

86.55

524.5

€/10

0 kg

383.9

385.9

374.

396.1

279.0

374.0

- 0.3%

- 0.3%

- 0.5%

+ 0.2%

+ 0.4%

- 0.4%

- 1.7%

- 0.4%

- 0.1%

+ 1.5%

+ 0.2%

- 0.4%

- 0.3%

- 0.4%

- 2.5%

+ 1.1%

- 0.1%

- 0.7%

Car

cass

eEU Prices week Evolution since

last weekEvolution since

last monthEvolution since

last year9

Male Calves Beef Type

Young Store Cattle

Yearling Male Store Cattle

Yearling Female Store Cattle

Male Calves Dairy Type

Calves slaughtered <8M

- 0.1%

+ 0.5%

+ 0.4%

+ 1.9%

+ 2.0%

- 0.3%

- 2.3%

+ 1.4%

+ 0.9%

+ 0.6%

+ 9.9%

- 2.4%

- 0.1%

+ 0.3%

- 0.4%

+ 0.8%

+ 9.2%

- 2.8%

€/h

ead

€/kg

€/100

Page 73: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU E V O L U T I O N

A / C / Z . R3

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

ACZ - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

374.04 376.92

% change y/y : - 0.7% % change y/y : - 3.4%

168.2%% Ref. Price in wk 9 :

Price in week 09 : Average price in February 2017 :

289.1

311.4

333.6

355.8

378.1

400.3

422.6

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

190%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

€/100 kg cwe

2012-2016 Avg 2015 2016 2017

% of Reference Price

Source : Member States ACZ - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

Page 74: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU E V O L U T I O N

A / C / Z . R3

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

47

8.8

4

42

8.9

5

421.

56

410.

73

408.

70

385.

12

38

3.6

0

379.

40

378.

17

375.

38

375.

30

374.

89

371.

04

36

2.2

1

341.

46

339.

40

339.

27

336.

31

327.

98

32

3.5

1

319.

66

316.

49

30

3.9

1

280.

82

259.

64

241.

82

217.

07

0.00

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

600.00

SE GR GB NI IT FI SP LU DE IE EU AT PT DK HR BE SI FR CZ SK PL EE NL LT RO LV HU

€ / 100 kg EU Beef prices ACZ - R3

Feb-16 Feb-17

Feb 17 vs Feb 16

Reference price 222.4

Page 75: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

Y O U N G B U L L – A.R3

13 March 2017

Young Bovines A - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

375.43 377.68

% change y/y : - 0.5% % change y/y : - 1.4%

Price in week 09 : Average price in February 2017 :

300

320

340

360

380

400

300

320

340

360

380

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012-2016 Avg 2015 2016 2017

Source : Member States Young Bovines A - R 3 > Wk.09-

Page 76: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

13 March 2017

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

E.U. E V O L U T I O N

Y O U N G BOVINE 8-12M–

Z.R3

Young Bovines 8-12m Z - R 3 > Wk.09-2016

385.95 385.94

% change y/y : + 0.8% % change y/y : + 3.6%

Price in week 09 : Average price in February 2017 :

300

320

340

360

380

400

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

2015 2016 2017

Source : MemberStates

In € / 100 kg

Page 77: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

E.U. E V O L U T I O N

S T E E R – C.R3

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

Bullocks C - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

391.60 401.01

% change y/y : - 1.8% % change y/y : - 8.4%

Price in week 09 : Average price in February 2017 :

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012-2016 Avg 2015 2016 2017

Source : Member States Bullocks C - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

Page 78: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

E.U. E V O L U T I O N

C O W – D.O3

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

Cows D - O 3 > Wk.09-2017

279.04 273.98

% change y/y : + 1.1% % change y/y : - 3.5%

Average price in February 2017 :Price in week 09 :

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012-2016 Avg 2014 2016 2017

Source : Member States Cows D - O 3 > Wk.09-

Page 79: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU E V O L U T I O N

H E I F E R – E.R3

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

Heifers E - R 3 > Wk.09-2017

383.90 385.32

% change y/y : - 0.1% % change y/y : - 4.1%

Price in week 09 : Average price in February 2017 :

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2012-2016 Avg 2015 2016 2017

Source : Member States Heifers E - R 3 > Wk.09-

Page 80: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU E V O L U T I O N

All CAT GLOBAL VIEW

P R I C E S

C A R C A S S E S

13 March 2017

200

250

300

350

400

450

2015 2016 2017

Z R3

A R3

C R3

D O3

E R3

Source : Member StatesLast Update : Week 09 - 2016

Page 81: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Store cattle (€/100 kg live weight)

EU E V O L U T I O N

STORE CATTLE

P R I C E S

L I V E B O V I N E S

13 March 2017

Young Store Cattle Price in Week 9 2.39 Yearling Male Store Cattle Price 2.33

Change y/y +0.25% Change y/y -0.45%

Yearling Female Store Cattle Price 2.34

Change y/y +0.76%

1.90

2.00

2.10

2.20

2.30

2.40

2.50

2.60

2.70

Young Store Cattle Prices

Young Store Cattle Yearling Male Store Cattle Yearling Female Store Cattle

Page 82: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Male calves aged between 8 days and 4 weeks (€/head)

P R I C E S

L I V E B O V I N E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

Male Calves – 8D4W

13 March 2017

Male Rearing Calves Beef type Male Rearing Calves Dairy type

Price in Week 6 215.78 Price in Week 6 80.42

Change y/y -0.28% Change y/y +3.19%

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

Male Rearing Calves Prices

Male Calves Dairy Type Male Calves Beef Type

Page 83: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Calves slaughtered before the age of less than 8 months (€/100 kg cw)

P R I C E S

L I V E B O V I N E S

EU E V O L U T I O N

Butcher Calves

13 March 2017

Price in Week 9 524.54 € / 100 kg of carcasse weight

Change y/y -2.81%

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

Calves Slaughtered before the Age of 8 Months

Page 84: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

REMAINDERS

13 March 2017

140.44

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2014 2015 2016

€/

10

0 k

g

Remainder for dairy calves fattening

Remainder Cost animal purchase Cost main feed ingredients AO2 carcass price Average remainder

Page 85: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

REMAINDERS

13 March 2017

160.12

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2014 2015 2016

€/

10

0 k

g

Remainder for beef type calves fattening

Remainder Cost animal purchase Cost main feed ingredients AR3 carcass price Average remainder

Page 86: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

REMAINDERS

13 March 2017

81.02

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2014 2015 2016

€/1

00

Kg

Remainder for young store cattle fattening

Remainder Cost animal purchase Cost main feed ingredients AR3 carcass price Average remainder

Page 87: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU exports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

Destinations

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

13 March 2017

2012 2013 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Dec 15

Turkey 101 475 19.6% 5 086 1.1% 8 098 1.4% 57 584 9.6% 71 234 10.1% + 23.9%

Hong Kong 17 862 3.4% 28 573 6.3% 65 112 11.6% 45 267 7.6% 58 350 8.3% + 29.1%

Lebanon 24 099 4.6% 24 007 5.3% 37 984 6.8% 50 287 8.4% 47 061 6.7% - 6.4%

Israel 8 435 1.6% 9 378 2.1% 8 353 1.5% 18 862 3.1% 41 678 5.9% + 121.1%

Bosnia-Herz. 14 893 2.9% 24 068 5.3% 34 104 6.1% 40 031 6.7% 38 929 5.5% - 2.5%

Ivory Coast 15 929 3.1% 21 619 4.8% 28 839 5.2% 35 767 6.0% 36 742 5.2% + 2.8%

Ghana 28 693 5.5% 40 878 9.0% 33 255 5.9% 37 389 6.2% 35 369 5.0% - 5.3%

Libya 10 665 2.1% 17 778 3.9% 14 280 2.6% 19 691 3.3% 29 503 4.2% + 49.8%

Switzerland 19 573 3.8% 26 347 5.8% 26 634 4.8% 26 038 4.3% 25 669 3.7% - 1.3%

Algeria 17 323 3.3% 25 911 5.7% 18 499 3.3% 16 085 2.7% 25 004 3.6% + 55.4%

Philippines 2 028 0.4% 2 730 0.6% 11 839 2.1% 13 116 2.2% 24 254 3.5% + 85.8%

Vietnam 3 042 0.6% 3 175 0.7% 6 410 1.1% 11 627 1.9% 22 252 3.2% + 91.4%

Norway 14 620 2.8% 10 222 2.3% 7 879 1.4% 19 129 3.2% 18 374 2.6% - 3.9%

Russia 97 828 18.9% 72 281 16.0% 96 928 17.3% 13 643 2.3% 16 450 2.3% + 21.4%

Egypt 1 305 0.3% 2 592 0.6% 2 763 0.5% 9 835 1.6% 15 924 2.3% + 62.4%

Angola 8 258 1.6% 10 589 2.3% 14 587 2.6% 9 644 1.6% 13 549 1.9% + 40.5%

For.JRep.Mac 11 321 2.2% 10 577 2.3% 11 370 2.0% 12 562 2.1% 11 781 1.7% - 6.2%

Other Destinations 132 668 25.6% 127 303 28.1% 143 675 25.7% 175 457 29.3% 182 542 26.0%

Extra-EU 518 694 452 537 559 238 599 454 702 883

% change - 13% + 24% + 7% + 17.9%

2014 Jan-Dec 162015

Page 88: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU exports of beef and live animals: Trade figures (COMEXT)

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

57 504 71 23465 11245 198

58 35037 98450 289

47 061

41 678

34 104

39 928

38 929

405 586

384 539

445 632

559 238596 308

702 883

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

To

nn

es c

w

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (Tonnes cwe)

Turkey Hong Kong Lebanon Israel Other destinations Series12

13 March 2017

342 415 420 403155 848

120 759138 167

142 763

192 051179 761

187 839

1 042 291

1 054 080

1 195 9951 501 256

1 892 616

2 216 259

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

To

nn

es

cw

EU EXPORTS of Beef & Veal (1000 EUR)

Turkey Hong Kong Lebanon Israel Other destinations Series12

Page 89: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

|Jan14

2014 |Jan15

2015 |Jan16

2016

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Exports of BEEF products

LIVE ANIMALS FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

B e e f P r o d u c t s

13 March 2017

Page 90: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU beef Exports to TURKEY Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

B e e f t o T U R K E Y

13 March 2017

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

Jan 1

4

Feb 1

4

Mar

14

Apr

14

May

14

Jun 1

4

Jul 14

Aug 1

4

Sep 1

4

Oct 14

Nov 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan 1

5

Feb 1

5

Mar

15

Apr

15

May

15

Jun 1

5

Jul 15

Aug 1

5

Sep 1

5

Oct 15

Nov 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan 1

6

Feb 1

6

Mar

16

Apr

16

May

16

Jun 1

6

Jul 16

Aug 1

6

Sep 1

6

Oct 16

Nov 1

6

Dec 1

6

Fresh Bovine "Compensated" quarters

Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Forequarters

Fresh Bovine (un)-separated Hindquarters

Live Animals

TOTAL

Page 91: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU beef Exports to RUSSIA Trade figures (COMEXT data) tonnes cwe

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

B e e f t o R U S S I A

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

Live animals Fresh Bovine meat

Frozen Bovine meat Beef Offals

TOTAL

13 March 2017

Page 92: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

L i v e A n i m a l s

1 4

23

2 1

14

1 4

94

2 1

59

2 7

28

3 1

87 4 29

1

4 5

83

4 89

2

5 4

28 6 34

8

3 9

37

4 3

38

4 6

38

3 4

25

4 3

43

4 5

41

5 0

60

5 5

91

8 83

0

1 8

45

1 98

5 3 6

69

6 26

1

7 3

70

7 5

63

403

1 7

61

1 8

13

1 9

81

1 9

28

1 22

2

29

1 3

30 3 4

61

886 1

945 89

5

1 43

4

953

957

1 4

93

1 8

25

1 3

57

481

2 0

50

. 2

939

.

1 2

30

.

3 8

04

.

3 6

03

.

4 32

8

.

3 1

32

.

3 70

7

.

1 9

95

.

3 5

50

. 3 1

55

.

2 9

66

.

4 5

61

.

3 7

54

.

3 6

76

.

4 4

39

.

3 9

42

.

4 6

83

.

4 74

1

.

3 0

98

.

3 65

2

.

3 9

65

.

3 6

37

.

4 5

59

.

3 4

53

.

3 5

44

.

3 6

21

.

2 6

50

.

3 7

31

.

5 96

2

.

3 5

28

.

4 38

2

. 3 5

53

.

3 44

8

.

3 6

27

. 4

277

.

3 7

69

.

4 6

08

.

4 8

60

.

6 2

73

.

4 5

55

.

5 29

3

.

4 0

93

.

2 7

90

.

3 4

14

.

5 3

67

.

5 1

43

.

6 2

48

.

3 1

59

.

4 6

34

. 5

608

.

4 7

08

.

5 58

8

.

5 6

14

.

6 40

9

.

6 0

98

.

7 50

6

.

7 5

11

.

8 0

46

.

6 8

92

.

6 1

68

.

6 1

23

.

6 0

31

.

9 6

21

. 11

505

.

9 73

8

.

8 7

48

.

8 43

8

.

6 9

47

.

8 59

4

.

7 9

33

.

9 4

00

.

0

.0

.

0

.0

.

0

.0

.

0

.0

.

0

.0

.

0

.

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

Jan

14

Feb

14

Mar

14

Ap

r 14

May 1

4

Ju

n 1

4

Ju

l 14

Au

g 1

4

Sep

14

Oct

14

No

v 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb

15

Mar

15

Ap

r 15

May 1

5

Ju

n 1

5

Ju

l 15

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

Oct

15

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb

16

Mar

16

Ap

r 16

May 1

6

Ju

n 1

6

Ju

l 16

Au

g 1

6

Sep

16

Oct

16

No

v 1

6

Dec 1

6

To

nn

es C

WE

.

EU-28 Exports of LIVE Bovine Animals(Source COMEXT - Tonnes cwe)

Turkey Algeria Lebanon Other

13 March 2017

Page 93: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

T R A D E

EU E X P O R T S

L i v e A n i m a l s

13 March 2017

506 875 498 117

808 418

996 469

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

2013 2014 2015 2016

Nu

mb

etr

of

he

ad

s

Turkey Lebanon Israel Libya Bosnia-Herz. Algeria Other

EU Exports of BEEF live animals by partner for the period Jan-Dec 2016

526 606565 724

945 023

1 153 879

0

200 000

400 000

600 000

800 000

1 000 000

1 200 000

1 400 000

2013 2014 2015 2016

Th

ou

san

d e

uro

s

Turkey Lebanon Israel Libya Bosnia-Herz. Algeria Other

EU Exports of BEEF live animals by partner for the period Jan-Dec 2016

Page 94: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU imports of beef and live animals (1): Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes cwe)

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

2012 2013 Compared

tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Dec 15

Brazil 126 344 41.1% 145 435 43.5% 144 259 43.4% 136 705 42.4% 140 566 42.1% + 2.8%

Uruguay 51 996 16.9% 51 377 15.4% 49 043 14.8% 46 301 14.3% 56 652 17.0% + 22.4%

Argentina 51 693 16.8% 47 976 14.3% 42 074 12.7% 42 135 13.1% 43 517 13.0% + 3.2%

Australia 21 290 6.9% 28 074 8.4% 32 653 9.8% 30 879 9.6% 27 749 8.3% - 10.2%

USA 21 095 6.9% 22 297 6.7% 23 234 7.0% 24 075 7.5% 20 534 6.1% - 14.9%

Namibia 8 848 2.9% 11 113 3.3% 9 994 3.0% 12 140 3.8% 10 685 3.2% - 11.8%

New Zealand 15 181 4.9% 13 827 4.1% 14 432 4.3% 11 369 3.5% 9 894 3.0% - 13.0%

Botswana 474 0.2% 6 280 1.9% 6 424 1.9% 9 258 2.9% 9 382 2.8% + 1.3%

Paraguay 101 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 1 915 0.6% 5 947 1.8% +++

Switzerland 4 946 1.6% 4 284 1.3% 5 456 1.6% 5 089 1.6% 5 497 1.6% + 8.0%

Chile 1 711 0.6% 537 0.2% 875 0.3% 710 0.2% 602 0.2% - 15.6%

Serbia 641 0.2% 619 0.2% 425 0.1% 439 0.1% 557 0.2% + 27.0%

Japan 0 0.0% 3 0.0% 100 0.0% 216 0.1% 497 0.1% + 38.5%

Canada 825 0.3% 965 0.3% 780 0.2% 428 0.1% 425 0.1% - 0.8%

Ukraine 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 570 0.2% 20 0.0% 317 0.1% +++

Norway 159 0.1% 201 0.1% 347 0.1% 480 0.1% 272 0.1% - 43.4%

Iceland 241 0.1% 196 0.1% 163 0.0% 236 0.1% 192 0.1% - 18.8%

Other Origins 2 161 0.7% 1 444 0.4% 1 532 0.5% 360 0.1% 657 0.2%

Extra-EU 307 707 334 630 332 361 322 753 333 942

% change + 9% - 1% - 3% + 3.4%

2014 Jan-Dec 162015

13 March 2017

Origins

Page 95: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

EU imports of beef and live animals (2): Trade figures (COMEXT)

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

Beef & Live Animals

144 260 136 803 140 566

49 043 46 28756 652

42 07442 150

43 517

32 65330 884

27 749

41 09842 786

44 925

332 361323 043 333 942

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

InTonnes

cwe

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (Tonnes cwe)

Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins

623 378 673 458 638 502

293 007307 642 324 156

378 442374 494 388 442

184 106211 919 198 874

181 860244 849 188 734

206 035

250 150256 976

1 866 829

2 062 5111 995 684

0

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

2 500 000

Jan-Dec 14 Jan-Dec 15 Jan-Dec 16

in 1000

EUR

IMPORTS of Beef & Veal into EU (1000 EUR)

Brazil Uruguay Argentina Australia USA Other origins

13 March 2017

Page 96: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

T R A D E

EU I M P O R T S

B e e f P r o d u c t s

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

|Jan14

2014 |Jan15

2015 |Jan16

2016

in Tonnes cwe

EU-28 Imports of BEEF products

FRESH FROZEN PREPARED OTHERS

13 March 2017

Page 97: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

452

403446

401436 429

398

491513 529

565

513556

395431

380

323 307335 332

242

1 263

1 171

1 120

825

1 028

736

598 598

481455

352

292248

292249

473

624

508

454

559

433

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan-Sep15

1000 Tonne

IMPORTS EXPORTS

452

403446

401436 429

398

491513 529

565

513556

395431

380

323 308335 332 323 334

1 263

1 171

1 120

825

1 028

736

598 598

481455

352

292248

292249

473

624

519

453

559599

703

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Dec16

1000 Tonne

IMPORTS EXPORTS

Trade balance of beef and live animals

T R A D E

EU T R A D E B A L A N C E

Beef & Live Animals

13 March 2017

Page 98: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Trade balance of beef and live animals

T R A D E

EU T R A D E B A L A N C E

Beef & Live Animals

13 March 2017

1 748 1 757

1 867

2 0601 996

1 692

1 287

1 501

1 898

2 216

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Dec 16

Million euros

Imports Exports

Page 99: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

W O R L D

B E E F M A R K E T

EXCHANGE RATE INDEX / Euro

Main Trading Partners

BRL US$

I

Mar-94

Apr-94

May-94

Jun-94

1994 Jul-94 1.21616

Aug-94 1.12659

Sep-94 1.10281

Oct-94 1.05929

Nov-94 1.08000

Dec-94 1.03347

I Jan-95 1.02803

Feb-95 1.06736

Mar-95 1.07356

Apr-95 1.17287

May-95 1.21342

Jun-95 1.14041

1995 Jul-95 1.22457

Aug-95 1.24742

Sep-95 1.20568

Oct-95 1.23442

Nov-95 1.26013

Dec-95 1.25452

I Jan-96 1.23543

Feb-96 1.20976

Mar-96 1.24358

Apr-96 1.24129

May-96 1.22590

Jun-96 1.21718

1996 Jul-96 1.24052

Aug-96 1.27467

Sep-96 1.29136

Oct-96 1.29280

Nov-96 1.29687

Dec-96 1.31559

I Jan-97 1.28422

Feb-97 1.23507

Mar-97 1.20849

Apr-97 1.22182

May-97 1.20734

Jun-97 1.23322

1997 Jul-97 1.22431

Aug-97 1.16889

Sep-97 1.18276

Oct-97 1.21337

Nov-97 1.22706

Dec-97 1.26593

I Jan-98 1.24100

Feb-98 1.24667

Mar-98 1.22904

Apr-98 1.23548

May-98 1.25755

Jun-98 1.30075

1998 Jul-98 1.26992

Aug-98 1.29350

Sep-98 1.29134

Oct-98 1.38518

Nov-98 1.43182

Dec-98 1.38909

I Jan-99 1.42236

Feb-99 1.97603

Mar-99 2.12876

Apr-99 2.00731

May-99 1.78831

Jun-99 1.80203

1999 Jul-99 1.84597

Aug-99 1.90955

13 March 2017

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

Index of daily exchange rates of the main trading partners compared to the Euro (02/01/14 = 100)

US Dollar Brazilian Real Canadian Dollar Russian Rouble Chinese Yuan

Page 100: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

W O R L D

B E E F M A R K E T

E.U. I M P O R T S

BEEF MAIN IMPORTERS

Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

Ch

ina

+ H

. Ko

ng

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Jap

an

Jap

an

Mex

ico

(u

p t

o N

ov)

Mex

ico

(u

p t

o N

ov)

Ru

ssia

(up

to

No

v)

Ru

ssia

(up

to

No

v)

Sou

th K

ore

a

Sou

th K

ore

a

EU

EU

Can

ada

Can

ada

Mal

aysi

a (u

p t

o O

ct)

Mal

aysi

a (u

p t

o O

ct)

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

2015 (up to December) 2016 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Ton

nes

Main Importers of BEEF Products (up to December)

No 2103 figures available for : Mexico, Taiwan, Chile, ...

Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

13 March 2017

Page 101: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

W O R L D

B E E F M A R K E T

E.U. E X P O R T S

BEEF MAIN EXPORTERS

Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

Au

stra

lia

Au

stra

lia

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Un

ite

d S

tate

s

Bra

zil

Bra

zil

Ind

ia (u

p t

o N

ov)

Ind

ia (u

p t

o N

ov)

New

Zea

lan

d (u

p t

o N

ov)

Ne

w Z

ea

lan

d (u

p t

o N

ov)

Can

ada

Can

ada

EU

EU

Uru

guay

(u

p t

o N

ov)

Uru

guay

(u

p t

o N

ov)

Par

agu

ay

Par

agu

ay

Arg

enti

na

Arg

enti

na

Mex

ico

(u

p t

o N

ov)

Mex

ico

(u

p t

o N

ov)

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2015 (up to December) 2016 (up to December)

Qty

in 1

000

Ton

nes

Main Exporters of BEEF Products (up to December)Source : GTA * Excluding live animals (0102), fats, preparations of several types of meat (0209, 0210 99 and 1602 90)

13 March 2017

Page 102: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

W O R L D

B E E F M A R K E T

STEER PRICES

EU, US, AUS, NZ

13 March 2017

ECB http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browse.do?node=2018794 US https://www.marketnews.usda.gov/mnp/ls-home AUS http://statistics.mla.com.au/Report/RunReport/ae59d4ac-74e4-4c56-93bd-982a044d9760 UY http://www.inac.gub.uy/innovaportal/v/11034/10/innova.front/indicadores-y-precios ARG http://www.abc-consorcio.com.ar/Estadisticas/detalle/117/precios_comparativos_del_novillo.html BR http://www.pecuaria.com.br/cotacoes.php NZ http://www.abc-consorcio.com.ar/Estadisticas/detalle/117/precios_comparativos_del_novillo.html

0 €

100 €

200 €

300 €

400 €

500 €Ja

n-1

3

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-

13

Sep

-13

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-

16

Sep

-16

No

v-1

6

Jan

-17

€/1

00

Kg

World Beef Prices

EU BRA URU ARG AUS US NZ

EU : 374.51

BRA : 285.42

URU : 349.01

ARG : 326.21

AUS : 373.86

US : 417.28

NZ : 341.29

Page 103: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

High Quality Beef

Import Quotas

13 March 2017

Hilton Quota Regulation (EU) N° 593/2013

Quantity allocated 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017*

(Tons) Use Use Use Use

09.4001 Australia 2 250 09.4004 Argentina 200 15.71 7.86% 9.46 4.73% 12.21 6.11% 6.71 3.36%09.4450 Argentina 29 500 23 663.86 80.22% 22 867.03 77.52% 22 350.61 75.76% 14 875.84 50.43%

09.4451 Australia 7 150 7 138.89 99.84% 6 815.93 95.33% 6 749.85 94.40% 3 061.02 42.81%09.4452 Uruguay 6 300 6 278.75 99.66% 6 280.98 99.70% 6 249.09 99.19% 4 812.50 76.39%

09.4453 Brazil 10 000 4 078.92 40.79% 7 989.89 79.90% 9 289.17 92.89% 6 846.23 68.46%09.4454 New Zealand 1 300 1 299.61 99.97% 1 299.45 99.96% 1 299.95 100.00% 747.78 57.52%09.4002 Canada/US 11 500 431.80 3.75% 353.46 3.07% 292.16 2.54% 352.90 3.07%

09.4455 Paraguay 1 000 0.00% 12.13 1.21% 915.63 91.56% 636.34 63.63%

Total Beef 66 750 42 891.83 64.26% 45 618.87 68.34% 47 146.46 70.63% 31 332.61 46.94%Total Buffalo 2 450 15.71 0.64% 9.46 0.39% 12.21 0.50% 6.71 0.27%

Total 69 200 42 907.54 62.01% 45 628.33 65.94% 47 158.67 68.15% 31 339.32 45.29%

* up to 31/01/2017

Page 104: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

High Quality Beef

Import Quotas

13 March 2017

Quota ergaomnes Regulation (EU) No 481/2012

2013-Q3 2013-Q4 2014-Q1 2014-Q2 TOTAL

Period 2013-2014 10 198 942 10 493 437 10 191 527 10 282 860 41 166 765

Available 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 48 200 000

Use 84.64% 87.08% 84.58% 85.33% 85.41%

2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2 TOTAL

Period 2014-2015 11 842 700 11 745 231 11 353 830 12 457 389 47 399 150

Available 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 48 200 000

Use 98.28% 97.47% 94.22% 103.38% 98.34%

Available after transfer 12 050 000 12 257 300 12 562 069 13 258 240

98.28% 95.82% 90.38% 93.96%

2015-Q3 2015-Q4 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 TOTAL

Period 2015-2016 11 965 843 11 851 187 11 528 823 12 736 406 48 082 260

Available 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 48 200 000

Use 99.30% 98.35% 95.67% 105.70% 99.76%

Available after transfer 12 050 000 12 134 157 12 332 969 12 854 146

99.30% 97.67% 93.48% 99.08%

2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1 2017-Q2 TOTAL

Period 2016-2017* 12 092 468 12 197 542 9 885 093 - 34 175 104

Available 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 12 050 000 48 200 000

Use 100.35% 101.22% 82.03% 0.00% 70.90%

Available after transfer 12 050 000 12 007 532 11 859 989 14 024 896

100.35% 101.58% 83.35% 0.00%

* Until 09.03.2017

-

2 000 000

4 000 000

6 000 000

8 000 000

10 000 000

12 000 000

14 000 000

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Period 2014-2015 Period 2015-2016 Period 2016-2017*

Page 105: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Forecast Summary

13 March 2017

2015 2016 2017 2018

BALANCE 59 163 164 210

BALANCE 360 341 362 388

BALANCE 420 504 526 598

EU - CARCASS PRICES 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sources : EStat New Cronos, Member States

( 1000T )

EU.15 PRODUCTION

( 1000T )

EU.15 CONSUMPTION

( €/100 kg )

EU.13 PRODUCTION

6 747

- 3.98%386.5

+ 0.75%

+ 0.51%

378.6

274.0

6 940+ 0.00%

- 0.52%

6 953

838 854

268.0

371.1

6 791+ 0.65%+ 1.85%

6 929- 0.35%+ 2.17%

6 806

6 730

777 833

283.6- 5.50%( €/100 kg )

ADULT MALE BOVINES

COWS

6 765

375.8

272.6

- 0.38%

+ 1.25%

+ 1.73%- 1.1%

+ 3.5%

+ 2.57%

( 1000T ) + 12.43% + 7.17% + 0.63% + 1.92%

EU.13 CONSUMPTION 417 492 476 466

( 1000T ) - 3.26% + 17.98% - 3.24% - 1.96%

EU.28 PRODUCTION7 583 7 786 7 766 7 794

( 1000T ) + 3.50% + 2.68% - 0.25% + 0.36%

EU.28 CONSUMPTION7 163 7 282 7 240 7 196

( 1000T ) + 1.54% + 1.66% - 0.58% - 0.61%

Page 106: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

Annex IV

Page 107: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

TRENDS IN SALES OF MEAT PRODUCTS

– A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE

Meat Market Observatory

16 March 2017

Page 108: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

2

Belgium Period ending February 2017

Product category

price

(% change

February 2017 vs

February 2016)

price

(% change

August 2016 – February 2017

vs August 2015 – February

2016)

Total pigmeat +3%

+1,71%

Delicatessen (salami, ham, prosciutto,

etc)

+0,9%

+0,86%

Processed pork (élaborés de viande) +0,5%

+1,13%

Total beef and veal +2,1% +0,91%

Source: Comeos

Page 109: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

3

France Period ending February 2017

Product category

volumes

(% change

year-to-date)

volumes

(% change

Year-to-year)

(52 weeks)

value

(% change

year-to-date)

value

(% change

Year-to-year)

(52 weeks)

Fresh beef* +0,2% -1,4% -1,7% -1,7%

Fresh veal* +1,3% -3,2% -0,1% -2,8%

Fresh pork* -3,8% -2,2% -3,1% -2,2%

Delicatessen

(salami, ham,

prosciutto, etc) -2,7% -0,9% - -

Frozen beef -5,5% -3,7% -5,7% -1,7%

Processed

(élaborés de

viande) 0,5% -0,4% 0,3% -0,3%

Source: Kantar Worldpanel

* Excluding minced meat and wholesale purchases

Page 110: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

4

France Focus on delicatessen in 2016

Source: IRI via LSA

Value of delicatessen market (mass food retail) : 6,04 Mrd€ (-0,7%) / volume : -1,8%

Retailer brands are losing market

share

Page 111: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

5

France

• 96% of the French consumers claimed that they

plan to maintain or increase the consumption of

organic products; (Agence BIO survey)

• 29% of French consumers intend to increase it: 46%

of them want to eat more organic beef and veal,

39% want more organic pork, lamb and charcuterie

http://www.agencebio.org/sites/default/files/upload/documents/5_Communication/Relations_Presse/dp_bio_barometre_val.pdf

Page 112: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

6

Italy: variation of household purchases of meat (volumes, first 9 months of 2016 vs 2015)

-6,9%

-4,8% -4,7%

-8,0%

-7,0%

-6,0%

-5,0%

-4,0%

-3,0%

-2,0%

-1,0%

0,0%

Fresh pork Fresh beef Others

Source: http://www.ismeamercati.it/flex/cm/pages/ServeBLOB.php/L/IT/IDPagina/7281

Page 113: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

7

Italy: Household purchases of fresh beef*

Page 114: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

8

Italy: variation of fresh beef purchases across retail store categories (volumes, first nine months of 2016 vs 2015)

-6,30% -5,80%

4,50%

-8,50%

-5,80%

-5,10%

-10,00%

-8,00%

-6,00%

-4,00%

-2,00%

0,00%

2,00%

4,00%

6,00%

Hypermarkets Supermarkets Hard Discount Convenience Local markets Traditional

Page 115: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

9

Spain

Product category

Volumes

(% change

December

2015-November

2016 vs

2014- 2015)

Volumes

(% change

November 2016

vs November

2015)

Value

(% change

December 2015 –

November 2016

vs 2014-2015)

Value

(% change

November 2016

vs November

2015)

Total meat -1,7% +1,8% -4,2% +2,2%

Pork -3,3% +1,4% -8,8%

Beef -3,2% -4,5% -3,7%

Frozen -4,8% -5,7% -14,2%

Processed

(élaborés de

viande)

-1,3% +6,6% -1,8%

Source: http://www.magrama.gob.es/es/alimentacion/temas/consumo-y-comercializacion-y-distribucion

alimentaria/informemesamesalimentacionfebrero2016_tcm7-423844.pdf

Page 116: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

10

United Kingdom: beef

Source: http://beefandlamb.ahdb.org.uk/markets/industry-reports/uk-statistics/

Page 117: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

11

United Kingdom: pigmeat

Page 118: Meat MO Economic Board - European Commission · 3/16/2017  · Meat Market Observatory Last update : 16 March 2017 o The 3rd meeting of the Economic Board of the Meat Market Observatory

12

United Kingdom –meat purchases