2017-10-04

Calculation and communication of

meat consumption in Sweden

Meat Market Observatory in Brussels, 3 October 2017

Åsa Lannhard Öberg Agricultural Policy Analyst at the Swedish Board of Agriculture

87,7 kg?

50-55 kg?40,3 kg?

69 kg?

40,3 kg?

68,7 kg?

87,7 kg?

50-55 kg?

2017-10-04

Before we go into the

details of meat

consumption, some

basic facts about the

Swedish meat market…

…which also answers

the question why it is so

important to have good

information about our

meat consumption!

Swedish meat consumption took off in the

beginning of the 1990’s (change 1990-2016)

2017-10-04

7%

51%

300%

126%

-43%

45%

10%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

PORK BEEF POULTRY LAMB OTHERMEAT TOTAL EGG

CH

AN

GE

IN

TO

TA

L C

ON

SU

MP

TIO

N

Why more meat on our plates?- EU membership, meat prices fell- reduced tax on food in 1996- food trends, protein diets- economic prosperity and traditions- product development- fast food & eating at restaurant- the vegetarian trend is mainly talk?

From a low level

2017-10-04

Market share for Swedish meat- started to fall after EU-membership, upward trend from 2014

(Swedish values as low use of antibiotics and animal welfare rules)98

,0%

89,2

%

104,

0%

59,7

%

99,5

%

79,3

%

100,

5%

48,5

%

89,4

%

74,8

%

85,5

%

43,4

%

89,6

%

62,8

%

75,0

%

44,7

%

80,2

%

57,8

%

74,2

%

39,1

%

76,0

%

57,9

%

70,6

%

38,5

%

66,7

%

50,8

%

64,6

%

31,7

%

70,1

%

51,6

%

67,3

%

28,0

%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

PORK BEEF POULTRY LAMB

MAR

KET

SHAR

EFO

R SW

EDIS

HPR

ODU

CTIO

N

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

50 %

2017-10-04

Swedish producer price for youngbulls (R3) about 20% higher than

the EU average!

Strong demand on the domestic market for

beef & pork produced in Sweden (2014-2017)

Swedish producer price for pigs(class E) stable on a volatile

EU market!

340

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

Sverige EU

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

Sverige EU

Consumer price development in Sweden - one reason for increased meat consumption

2017-10-04

70

90

110

130

150

170

19019

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Pric

e de

velo

pmen

t as i

ndex

, 199

4=10

0

BREAD POTATOES WHITE SUGAR MILKCHEESE ICECREAM EGGS BEEF

PORK POULTRY ALL FOODS INFLATION

Meat prices fell afterEU-membership!

Today: beef & eggs moreexpensive, poultry & pork cheaper!

2017-10-04

In 2014 the average Swede consumed

in total for about 18 700 euros

- 12 percent on food & nonalcoholic beverages

(=2 244 euros)

12%

4%

5%

26%

5%4%

13%

3%

11%

0%

6%

11%Food and soft drinksAlcohol, tobaccoClothesHousingFurnitureHealthTransportsTelecomRecreationEducationRestaurants and hotelOther expenditure

2017-10-04

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%19

94

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Expenditure on food & all beverages 1994-2014 (share per group in current prices)

Bread, grain Meat Fish Dairy, eggsOils, fats Fruit Vegetables SweetsSpices, babyfood Coffe, tea Soft drinks Alcohol

ANIMAL PRODUCTS: Relatively high prices per kgALCOHOL: High Swedish taxes

For every 10 euros of disposable income in 2014 the average Swede spent, on all consumption:

2,60 euros on housing1,30 euros on transports1,10 euros on recreation1,20 euros on food and non-alcoholic beverages

0,22 cents on meat (=2,2%)0,20 cents on dairy/eggs

0,20 cents on alcohol

The interest in meat consumption is growing and

almost everybody has an opinion – but why?

2017-10-04

Horse meat scandal- who can we trust?

Climatic stress- how much meat, kind ofmeat and origin of meat

matters!

Agenda 2030

Health focus - 10% of Swedes statethey are vegetarians!

MRSA, antibiotics, animal welfare- Swedish values are hot!

Dietary advice by the Swedish Food Agency

- does it have an impact?

All these factors should logically lead to a decreased meat consumption…

We eat only 25% of live cattle

(pig a little more, lamb a little less)

2017-10-04

35,2

19,1

9,0

0,8

35,7

22,4

12,8

0,9

36,5

25,2

14,9

0,9

36,2

24,8

18,1

1,4

35,9

25,6

19,0

1,5

33,5

25,6

23,6

1,8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

PORK BEEF POULTRY LAMB

CON

SUM

PTIO

N, K

G/C

APIT

A

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total consumption of meat: 87,7 kg/capitaPork -3 kg, poultry +3,3 kg since 2013First six months of 2017: poultry equals beeffor the first time (12 kg/capita each)

… but what happened last year?”Swedish total consumption of meat

at new record level in 2016”

2017-10-04

Time to talk about Swedish

meat consumption in detail…

87,7 kg?

68,7 kg?

50-55 kg?

40,3 kg?

Meat has to take its responsibility like all kinds of food production, when it comes to sustainability, human health and ethical issues.

However, the image of meat has suffered some damage mainly dueto poor information about consumption & resource management!

Meat ”consumption” in five steps

2017-10-04

1. LIVE WEIGHT

2. TOTAL CONSUMPTION

3. RETAILSALE

4. CONSUMPTION ”RAW WEIGHT”

5. CONSUMPTION ”ON THE FORK”

Step 2: Official statistics(slaughter+imports-exports)

Steps 4 and 5: Survey in 2011 on actual intake of foodamong adult Swedes, done by the National Food Agency. Step 5 is what the survey shows, then recalculated to rawweight (before cooking and adjusted for underreported q’s).

Steps 1 and 3: Acceptedconversion ratios that are appliedon total consumption

This is no rocket science -only a simple method to

collect & process avaliable figures and to put them in a context!

From pasture & barn to fork- based on total consumption (cwe) 87,7 kg/capita 2016

- two groups that match survey on food habits & dietary advice

2017-10-04

107,5

29,9

64,1

23,6

49,0

19,7

42,0

10,5

32,5

7,8

26,0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

RED MEAT POULTRY

KG/C

APIT

A

LIVE WEIGHT

SLAUGHTERED WEIGHT

RETAIL WEIGHT

RAW "READY TO COOK" WEIGHT

CONSUMED " ON THE FORK" WEIGHT

DIETARY ADVICE, RECOMMENDATION TO EAT NO MORE THAN 500 GRAMS/WEEK

RED MEET TOTAL

- Minus 69% pasture/barn to fork

- Minus 49% cwe to fork

- Minus 40% pasture/barn to cwe

- Minus 23% raw weight to fork

- We eat 32,5 kg/capita (=625 g/w)

POULTRY

- Minus 74% barn to fork

- We eat 7,8 kg/capita (=150 g/w)

Dietary advice

versus real

consumption:

difference=25%

Consumption ”on the fork” versus dietary advice- the average Swede ate red meat at or under

recommended level up until 1993

2017-10-04

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

70019

90

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Gram

s per

adu

lt pe

rson

and

wee

k

TOTAL CONSUMPTION OF RED MEAT Dietary advice from 2015

Assumptions: - The dietary advice not to eat more than 500 grams ofred meat per person and week, launched by the Swedish Food Agency in 2015, applies for the whole period.- The real consumption of red meat (”on the fork”) corresponds to 50 percent of the total consumption(cwe) for the whole period.

Goes down as morepoultry in our diet!

”on the fork”

2017-10-04

PORK (KG) BEEF (KG) POULTRY (KG) LAMB (KG)live weight - lwe 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000slaughtered weight - cwe 0,750 0,500 0,750 0,450retail weight - rwe 0,585 0,350 0,660 0,360raw "ready to cook" weight 0,449 0,299 0,449 0,269consumed "on the fork" weight 0,345 0,230 0,345 0,207

0,000

0,200

0,400

0,600

0,800

1,000

1,200

KILO

CONVERSION LIVE TO SLAUGHTER (SE):PORK – 0,75BEEF – 0,50POULTRY – 0,75LAMB – 0,45

CONVERSION SLAUGHTER TO RETAIL (EU-COM):PORK – 0,78 BEEF – 0,70POULTRY – 0,88LAMB – 0,88

LAST TWO STEPS ORIGINATE FROM A SURVEY BY THE SWEDISH FOOD AGENCY

From pasture & barn to fork based on 1 kg/speciesMain conclusion: 4 kg live weight = 1,127 kg on the fork = 28% is eaten

2017-10-04

1) 50%ABP/losses

2) 27%ABP/losses

3) 23% ”on the fork”

1) 25%ABP/losses

2) 40,5%ABP/losses

3) 34,5% ”on the fork”

1) 55%ABP/losses

2) 24,3%ABP/losses

3) 20,7% ”on the fork”1)

25%ABP/losses

3) 34,5% ”on the fork”2) 40,5%

ABP/losses

Shares of live animals that end up as:1) ABP/losses in food chain at slaughter level, 2) ABP/losses in food chain betweenslaughter and ”fork”, 3) ”on the fork”(still at a concept stage, looking for more figures and information…)

Pure meat on carcass: 70%

= 35% pure meaton live animal

Pure meat on carcass: 50%

= 25% pure meaton live animal

Pure meat on carcass: 60%

= 43,5% pure meaton live animal

Pure meat on carcass: 50%

= 37,5% pure meaton live animal

2017-10-04

ABP/losses in food chain: slaughter level• Hides and skins• Intestines• Bones, horns and hooves• Blood• Fat • Feathers (poultry)Areas of use• Feed• Organic fertilisers• Energy through incineration• Biogas (=energy&organic fertilisers)• Biodiesel• Fat for technical use• Leather and skins

ABP/losses in food chain: cutting plants, food industry, wholesale/retail level, households• Remaining bones from carcases• Tendons• Fat on carcases• Pure meatAreas of use• Feed• Organic fertilisers• Energy through incineration• Biogas (= energy & organic fertilisers)• Biodiesel• Fat for technical use

1) 50%ABP/losses

2) 27%ABP/losses

3) 23% ”on the fork”

- Not much is completely wasted but more can be done- There are no detailed figures - big variation- Challange for smaller slaughterhouses/enterprises

Is our information good enough?-we still get many questions about…

2017-10-04

1. Regional differences in meat consumption?

2. Differences in origin of meat consumed in public kitchens,

private restaurants & households?

3. How can I avoid meat from animals that have not been

anesthetized before slaughter?

4. Sustainable meat - how should I argue (origin, kind of meat,

amount of meat)?

5. How do I handle conflicting objectives (ecosystem services

versus climate impact)?

2017-10-04

The Swedish Board of Agriculture in

Jönköping

Thank you for listening!If you want more information about Swedish meat

consumption, don’t hesitate to contact me!

Åsa Lannhard Öbergasa.lannhard@jordbruksverket.se

+46 36 15 52 74 or +46 70 369 73 04