lincolnshire research observatory local performance and prospects for growth local economic and...

Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk

Local Performance and Prospects for Growth

Local Economic and Business Performance,

and Our Prospects for Growth Adam Peacock

Principal Development Officer

Research and Information Team

Lincolnshire County Council



Unemployment

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

29,000

30,000



Business Performance – Sales/Orders

For businesses involved in the UKmarket, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Sales/Custom/Bookings

For businesses involved in the UKmarket, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Orders/Advanced Custom/Bookings

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease



For businesses involved in overseasmarkets, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Sales/Custom/Bookings

For businesses involved in overseasmarkets, over the past 3 months, andexcluding seasonal variations:Orders/Advanced Custom/Bookings

Business Performance - Exports

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease



Profitability in past 3months

Expected Profitability in thenext 12 mths

Business Performance - Profitability

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease



Over the past 3 months, hasyour company's turnoverincreased, decreased orstayed the same?

Do you believe that over thenext 12 months yourcompany's turnover willincrease, decrease or staythe same?

Business Performance - Turnover

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease



Over the past 3 months, hasyour company's workforceincreased, decreased orstayed the same?

Over the next 3 months, doyou expect your workforceto increase, decrease, orstay the same?

Business Performance - Workforce

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease



Over the past 3 months,has your cash flowimproved, worsened, orstayed the same?

Stay the Same

Increase

Decrease

Business Performance - Cashflow



Local Labour Market Indicators

Indicator No. % England (%)

Working age people 627,000

Working age people in employment 447,000 71 70

Employees 385,700 87 87

Self employed 59,800 13 13

Not in employment 180,000 29 30

Economically inactive 143,100 23 23

Economically inactive who want a job 35,800 25 24

Economically inactive who do not want a job 107,400 75 76

Source: Annual Population Survey



Skills Levels

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011

Greater LincolnshireEngland

Source: Annual Population Survey

%

% of the working age population with NVQ level 3+



Population data

Source: Office for National Statistics

- Population has increased from approximately 960,000 to 1,040,000

- Population has grown by 9% over the last decade compared to 8% nationally

0-19 (%) 20-64 (%) 65+ (%)

Area 2001 2011 2001 2011 2001 2011

England 25 24 59 60 16 16 Lincolnshire LEP 24 23 57 58 18 20



330

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

England Greater Lincolnshire

Source: Office of National Statistics

Active Enterprises per 10,000 population



Wage Levels

Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

£22,272

£23,765

£25,549

£26,601

£20,000

£21,000

£22,000

£23,000

£24,000

£25,000

£26,000

£27,000

2008 2011

Greater Lincolnshire

England

£3,277

£2,836



Economic Value




GVA per head




What we said back in March 2012

• A lagging economy when based on GVA per head, but positive signs in the last 4/5 years

• Other measures put the Greater Lincolnshire economy on a more positive footing

• Wage and qualification levels improving

• Emerging industries (e.g. environmental technologies, renewables)

• Ageing population presents opportunities



What about now and in to the future?

- Back into recession (double dip)

- Economic uncertainty

- Conference season

- Cashflow / lending problems persist

- Longer term forecast is one of growth



Real UK GDP 2005=100




Looking Ahead

Actual data

Forecast

Source: Office for National Statistics, Office for Budget Responsibility



Where is this growth going to come from?

Looking to the future, the Greater Lincolnshire LEP prospectus highlights a number of growth or most important sectors for the Greater Lincolnshire economy:

-Agri-food-Manufacturing / Engineering -Visitor Economy-Care-Ports & Logistics-Renewables



Agri-Food Key Facts & Stats

- Distinctive feature of the Greater Lincolnshire area

- Strategically important both locally, nationally and internationally

- Covers primary production, food processing, wholesale, and retail (plus activities around agricultural engineering and packaging)

- Employs approximately 78,000 people

- 18% of total employment compared to 10% nationally

- Generates approximately 11% of total economic value



Agri-Food

Actual data Forecast

Source: Office for National Statistics, Defra Agricultural Survey, emda Experian Forecasting Model



Engineering Key Facts & Stats

- Has a number of strong growth sectors


- 3% of total employment in line with national average




13000

13500

14000

14500

15000

15500

16000

16500

17000

Engineering


Source: Office for National Statistics, emda Experian Forecasting Model



Visitor Economy- Distinctive feature of the Greater

Lincolnshire area






Visitor Economy

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000





Care

- Covers hospital, medical and dental practice, and social work activities






Care





Ports & Logistics- Distinctive feature of the Greater

Lincolnshire area






Ports & Logistics





Renewables- Emerging industry and difficult to measure

- Data suggests substantial growth

- Approx 150 companies engaged in renewable energy and environmental activities across the area.

- Activities range from installers of solar PV panels, to plastics recycling and manufacturers of electric car batteries.

- The LRO is lobbying for a government definition of the sector



In Summary

• In the short term the national and local economies face continued uncertainty and a number of challenges to growth

• Longer term prospects are better, and locally certain sectors present real potential

• Longer term challenges remain, particularly around skills and our traditional industries

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