Measuring police productivityA review of BCU level data

July 2006

Kevin Marsh

Introduction

Project (2005): Matrix commissioned to assess the potential of ABC data

• measure police performance

• improve police performance

Presentation

• Background: policy + methodology

• Measuring police inputs

• Measuring police outputs

• Analysis: the comparative efficiency of BCUs

• Discussion

Policy background

General public sector

•1997/8 Comprehensive Spending Review: need for savings

• 2001 elections: Office of Public Service Reform set up

• Gershon Report (2004): specific efficiency proposals

Police

• The White Paper “Building Communities, Beating Crime”

• Police efficiency plans: 3% cost saving per year (2005/06 - 2007/08)

• PPAF: measures to judge police performance

Methodological context

Definition of productivity

• Sum of weighted outputs/expenditure

International standards for measurement of productivity

• United Nations System of National Accounts (SNA)

• European System of Account (ESA 95)

UK measurement of productivity

• Atkinson review (2005) recommend adoption of SRA + ESA95

• ONS test recommendations

• improvements to health, education, personal social services, administration of social security and fire services

Challenges to measuring inputs Atkinson (2005): standards for input measurement

• comprehensive

• personnel

• procurement of goods and services

• capital

• deflated

• adjusted for the quality of inputs

Police: 2 sources input data

• net revenue expenditure (ODPM, HO, LA)

• activity-based costing

Activity based costing

Budgetary

Other

At court

Paperwork

Deal with detainees

Interview detainees

Issue advice

Searches

Observations

Enquiries

Deal with incident

Budgetary

Other

At court

Paperwork

Deal with detainees

Interview detainees

Issue advice

Searches

Observations

Enquiries

Deal with incident

e.g. missing person, false alarm

e.g. RTC fatal

e.g. public disorder, deception

e.g. burglary in dwelling

e.g. violence against the person,

e.g. missing person, false alarm

e.g. RTC fatal

e.g. public disorder, deception

e.g. burglary in dwelling

e.g. violence against the person,

Waiting time / refreshments

e.g. community involvement, admin

Visible patrol

Waiting time / refreshments

e.g. community involvement, admin

Visible patrol

Waiting time / refreshments

Non-incident related

Visible patrol

Waiting time / refreshments

Non-incident related

Visible patrol

Other incidents

Traffic

All other crime

Burglary, robbery, theft

Violent crime

Other incidents

Traffic

All other crime

Burglary, robbery, theft

Violent crime

Data available: number of hours (not cost)

No need deflate

reactive / individual

proactive/ collective

How good is ABC?

Concerns

• ignore some activities

• seasonality

• self-reported data

• response rate: 80%

• capital + procurement

• quality (grade/cost)

• not record downtime

Improvements

• increase officer awareness of the benefits of the data

• checks on the validity

• timing of data collection

Allow distinguish inputs by ACTIVITY and CRIME TYPE

How many hours to BCUs spend reacting to violent crime?

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

ho

urs

How many hours do BCUs spend reacting to each violent crime?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

ho

urs

Challenges to measuring output

Activity types: collective (defence), individual (education)

• universal protection of public: collective

• clearing up crime: individual

Output measures: detection

Adjustments

• alternative explanations of change in output

• quality of output

• value of output (weight?)

Are detection rates related to the time spend on each violent crime?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

ho

urs

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

de

tec

tio

n r

ate

hours per violent crime

violent crime detection rate

Are detection rates related to the time spend on each violent crime?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

ho

urs

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

de

tec

tio

n r

ate

hours per violent crime

violent crime detection rate

How efficient are BCUs at detecting violent crime?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

hours per crime

dete

cti

on

rate

How efficient are BCUs at detecting violent crime?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

hours per crime

dete

cti

on

rate

Assumption: detection rate explained by efficiency of BCU inputs

Does efficiency depend on BCU family?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

hours per offence

dete

ctio

n ra

te

BCU family 2

BCU family 4

BCU family 8

BCU family 10

BCU family 13

Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

det

ecti

on

rat

e

violent crime

robbery

Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

det

ecti

on

rat

e

violent crime

robbery

Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

det

ecti

on

rat

e

violent crime

robbery

Technical efficiency

Allocative efficiency

Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

det

ecti

on

rat

e

violent crime

burglary

robbery

Does the efficiency of detection vary between crime types?

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

det

ecti

on

rat

e

violent crime

burglary

robbery

Value of a detection?

How should detections be weighted?

How should detections be weighed?

How do weights impact the efficiency of resource allocation?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

hours per offence

dete

ctio

n ra

te (

wei

ghte

d)

violent crimeburglaryrobbery

Conclusion: how use/improve analysis?

Use: further investigation of productivity trends identified

Improve

• inputs: ABC allow measure services provided by police

• improve: seasonality, accuracy of self report, capital measure, quality/costs

• outputs

• detection: broader impact (satisfaction)

• collective: define output, attribute change

• statistical model (DEA/SFA): appropriate, data?

• literature review

• project budget marginal analysis

QUESTIONS?