M. Amann, W. Schöpp, J. Cofala, G. Klaassen

The RAINS-GHG

Model Approach

Work in progress

Introduction of GHGs into RAINS

Task:

• Develop cost curves for GHGs (CO2, CH2, N2O, CFC, HFC, SF6) in addition to SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PM, (BC, CO)

• Country-by-country, medium-term up to 2030

Challenges:

• How to capture linkages in emissions, controls, impacts, and instruments?

• How to model structural changes?

Traditional RAINS optimization

• Decision variables: segments of pollutant-specific cost curves

• No interaction between pollutants

• Cost curves fixed for given energy structure, no structural change possible

New decision variables

Decision variables:Amounts of economic activities controlled by a given abatement measure k (acti,k)

– Each technical measure represented as a variable

For each activity class i:

Σ acti * effj = total activity

– Derived from an exogenous baseline scenario– E.g., demand for useful energy (transport volume)– Kept constant in RAINS calculations

Emission- and cost calculation

Emission calculation:

Σ acti,j * emission factori,j,l = total emissionsl

– For each pollutant l – Emission factors include effects of controls – Captures multi-pollutant effects of individual measures

Cost calculation:

Σ acti,j * cost coeffi = total costs

– Cost coefficients describe costs for each technology, not allocated to a specific pollutant

– Serves as objective function in optimization

Efficiency improvements and fuel substitution

Efficiency improvements:

eff > 1 in Σ acti * eff = total activity

. or: Σ acti + sav = total activity

Fuel substitution (e.g., coal gas): – Decision variable fs:

Σ acti * eff + fs = total coal use

Σ acti * eff - fs = total gas use

Costs and applicability limits derived from sensitivity runs of full energy model!

Environmental constraints

Air quality:

Σ emissions i * transfer functionik target levelk

– For each receptor k– For deposition, air quality, health effects, etc.– Simultaneous constraints for multiple effects

Greenhouse gases (l):

Σ emissions il * Xl emission ceiling

– For each country or groups of countries– For each GHGs or a basket of GHGs– Xl : weighting factor (GWP) or function (radiative forcing)

Carbon trading

Between countries: Σ actbuy * emission factorCO2 - trade total CO2,buy

Σ actsell * emission factorCO2 + trade total CO2,sell

– Also possible for other GHGs/basket of GHGs

Buying C from the world market:

Σ actbuy * emission factorCO2 - trade total CO2,buy

Σ other costs + trade * C price = total costs

Pollution taxes:

Σ other costs + Σ emissionsl * taxl = total costs

Costs and benefits

Simplifications:• Temporal aspects (reflected by constraints)• Substitution options (reflected by constraints)

Gains:• Capture full interaction between pollutants• Allow systematic exploration of co-benefits • Enables full integrated assessment of air pollution and

climate change

Requirements:• Link to full energy model to derive limits• Embed in long-term energy/climate scenarios

SO2 NOx NH3 VOC

Primary PM+BC

Acidification

Eutrophication

Ground-level ozone

Health impacts via sec. aerosols

CO

CO2+ GHGs

Radiative forcing via aerosols via OH

A multi-pollutant/multi-effect problem

Conclusions

• Work in progress

• Building, as far as possible, on reviewed RAINS databases and UNFCCC information

• Cooperation with climate modelling community welcome

• Methodology and implementation to be completed by late 2004

• Further workshops at IIASA to discuss details and review progress