m. amann, i. bertok, j. cofala, f. gyarfas, c. heyes. z. klimont, w. schöpp, w. winiwarter the cafe...
TRANSCRIPT
M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Emission projections
Approach for baseline emission projections
• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000
• Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) – EU-wide scenarios and national projections
• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020– Taking account of international and national legislation
Preparation of RAINS databases
Bilateral consultations (1)
Country or organization
Consultation meeting date
No of experts
Comments received Comments PRIMES
Energy scenario
Agr. scen
Denmark - - 16 Jan 04 - Y Y
Latvia - - 08 Oct 03 - - Y
EUROPIA 2-3 Oct 03 2 05 Dec 03 – 23 Mar 04 -
EURELECTRIC 30-31 Oct 03 4 - -
Hungary 14 Nov 03 1 - - - -
Germany 20-21 Nov 03 4 19 Dec 03 - 23 Mar 04 Y - -
Czech Republic 25 Nov 03 3 19 Dec - 27 Feb, 07Apr 04 Y Y Y
ACEA 12 Dec 03 10 - -
Italy 15-16 Dec 03 2 19 Jan, 15 Feb - 02 Apr 04 Y Y -
France 8-9 Jan 04 5 31 Mar 04 - 2-15 Apr 04 Y Y -
Sweden 22-23 Jan 04 3 29 Jan, 09 Mar - 04 Apr 04 Y Y Y
UK 26-28 Jan 04 8 19 Feb, 03 Mar - 15 Mar, 06 Apr 04
Y Y Y
Spain 4-5 Feb 04 5 30 Mar 04 - 13 Apr 04 Y - -
Bilateral consultations (2)
Country or organization
Consultation meeting date
No of experts
Comments received Comments PRIMES
Energy scenario
Agr. . scen
Portugal 12-13 Feb 04 5 27 Feb, 03,05 Mar - 08 Apr 04 Y Y Y
Belgium 16-17 Feb 04 7 08 Mar - 2-13 Apr, 06 Apr 04 Y Y -
Austria 23 Feb 04 11 24 Feb - 18,19 Mar, 19 Apr 04 - - Y
Ireland 4-5/19 Mar 04 2 12,19 Mar 04 Y - Y
ESVOC 8 Mar 04 7 - - -
Finland 8-9 Mar 04 3 19, 25 Mar 04 - 19 Apr 04 Y Y -
Lithuania 10 Mar 04 2 24 Mar 04 Y - -
Estonia 12 Mar 04 2 17 Mar 04 - - -
Slovakia 15 Mar 04 3 22 Mar 04 Y - -
Poland 17-18 Mar 04 2 17,18 Mar 04 - 07 Apr 04 - - -
Slovenia 22 Mar 04 2 24,29 Mar 04 - 01, 08 Apr 04 - Y Y
Netherlands 25-26 Mar 04 4 16 Mar 04 - 02,08,18 Apr 04 Y - Y
19 + 4 101 21 14 10 10
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000
SO2
VOC
NOx
NH3
National inventory RAINS estimate
Economic drivers for emission projections
Projections of economic activitiesused for the CAFE baseline scenarios
Energy
• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 €/t CO2)
– Including national comments received after April
• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures)
• National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures?
Agriculture
• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform
• National projections (10 countries)
Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport
CO2 emissionsof the PRIMES projections [Mt]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
New Member StatesEU-15 Kyoto target EU-15 Kyoto target EU-25
Withclimate measures
No furtherclimate
measures
National projectionsconsidered for the CAFE baseline
Energy
• Belgium
• Czech Republic
• Denmark
• Finland
• France
• Italy
• Portugal
• Slovenia
• Sweden
• UK
Agriculture
• Austria
• Denmark
• France
• Ireland
• Italy
• Latvia
• Netherlands
• Portugal
• Slovenia
• UK
CO2 emissions 2015relative to 2000
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Belgium Denmark Finland France Italy Portugal Sweden UK CzechRepublic
Slovenia
With climate measures No further climate measures National projection
SO2 emissions
SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
SO2 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Ma
lta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
With climate measures No further climate measuresNational energy projections NEC emission ceiling
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Range of SO2 emission projections[kt]
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions
SO2 emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
2000 2020
EU-15 New Member States Sea regions
NOx emissions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25
Power generationPower generation
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Domestic
DomesticGasoline cars
Gasoline cars
Diesel carsDiesel cars
Off-road
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Off-road
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
NOx emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Ma
lta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
With climate measures No further climate measuresNational energy projections NEC emission ceiling
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Range of NOx emission projections[kt]
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions
NOx emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
0
6000
12000
18000
2000 2020
EU-15 New Member States Sea regions
VOC emissions
VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
States
Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
VOC emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Ma
lta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
With climate measures No further climate measuresNational energy projections NEC emission ceiling
NH3 emissions
NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
NH3 emissions projected for 2010compared to NEC emission ceilings
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
m
Den
mar
k
Fin
lan
d
Fra
nce
Ger
ma
ny
Gre
ece
Ire
lan
d
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
her
land
s
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
ede
n
UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep
.
Est
onia
Hun
gar
y
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Ma
lta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Tot
al N
MS
Europe-wide pre-CAP reform scenario National agricultural projectionsNEC emission ceiling
Primary PM emissions
PM10
RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
125%
150%
175%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
k
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ger
man
y
Gre
ece
Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
l
Spa
in
Sw
eden UK
Tot
al E
U-1
5
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
ia
Lith
uani
a
Mal
ta
Pol
and
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
veni
a
Tot
al N
MS PM2.5
National inventory RAINS estimate
PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Diesel exhaust, cars
Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT
Non-exhaust Non-exhaust
Off-road Off-road
Agriculture Agriculture
Domestic, wood stoves
Domestic, wood stoves
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
Black carbon emissions “With climate measures” scenario [kt]
0
100
200
300
400
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0
20
40
60
80
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
EU-15
New Member
States
Coal, oil Wood Diesel, gasoline Other
Conclusions
• While accounting for continued economic growth …
• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%
• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation
• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.
– Small combustion sources!
– Industrial processes, solvents!
– Off-road vehicles and machinery!
• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25
The baseline scenario on the Web
All country- and sector-specific results of the baseline scenarios are available at:
www.iiasa.ac.at/rains