m. amann, i. bertok, j. cofala, f. gyarfas, c. heyes. z. klimont, w. schöpp, w. winiwarter the cafe...
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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Air quality and impacts
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Air quality impactsanalyzed for the CAFE baseline scenario
Health:
• Loss in life expectancy attributable to PM2.5
• Premature deaths attributable to ozone
Vegetation:
• Ozone damage to forests (AOT40)
• Excess acid deposition to forests
• Excess acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
• Excess acid deposition to lakes
• Excess nitrogen deposition
All impacts shown for “no further climate measures” scenario, average results of 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorological conditions
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Inter-annual meteorological variabilityfor PM2.5
19991997
2000 2003
Rural concentrations,annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropog. sources
excluding sec. org. aerosols.
Calculations with emissions
for the year 2000
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Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.52020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]
from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org.
aerosols Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Loss in life expectancy 2020attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified
anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
0
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15
Au
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Ma
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Po
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2000 2010 2020
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Premature mortality attributable to ozonerelated to excess of daily max. 8 hour means > 35 ppb (SOMO35)
0
10
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da
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x 8
-hr
me
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37
Applied relative risk factor: 1.003 / 10 µg/m3 increase in daily max 8 h mean
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Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]
0
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Ne
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UK
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Hu
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La
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Po
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Slo
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ia
2000 2010 2020
Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]m
2000 2010 2020
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrations 2020AOT40 [ppm.hours]
Critical level for forests:
5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Acid deposition to forests2020
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above
critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Average of calculations for
1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads
0%
20%
40%
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100%
Aus
tria
Bel
giu
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Den
mar
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Fin
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Ire
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Italy
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Net
her
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Por
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Sw
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UK
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y
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uan
ia
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and
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a
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Tot
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2000 2010 2020
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems
with acid deposition above critical loads,
using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas, 2020
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Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]
0
3000
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15000
France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK
2000 2010 2020
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Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
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Percentage of catchments area
with acid deposition above critical loads,
using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies2020
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0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Finland Sweden UK
2000 2010 2020
Percent of lake catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Percentage of ecosystems area
with nitrogen deposition above critical loads,
using grid-average deposition.
Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003
meteorologies
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication 2020
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0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
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Fra
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Ger
man
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Gre
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Irel
and
Italy
Luxe
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herla
nds
Por
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eden UK
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U-1
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Est
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Hun
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Tot
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2000 2010 2020
Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
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Conclusions
• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
– Ozone:
• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail
– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
– Eutrophication remains unresolved