M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.

Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter

The CAFE baseline scenarios:

Key findings

Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

0

3

6

9

12

15

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nma

rk

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

land

Italy

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Ne

ther

lan

ds

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ede

n

UK

To

tal E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

nga

ry

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Ma

lta

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

To

tal N

MS

To

tal E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]

2000 2010 2020

Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

2000 2010 2020

Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution

Acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aus

tria

Bel

giu

m

Den

mar

k

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ger

ma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

her

land

s

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

ede

n

UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gar

y

Latv

ia

Lith

uan

ia

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

Tot

al N

MS

Tot

al E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK

2000 2010 2020

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Aus

tria

Bel

gium

Den

mar

k

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Ger

man

y

Gre

ece

Irel

and

Italy

Luxe

mbo

urg

Net

herla

nds

Por

tuga

l

Spa

in

Sw

eden UK

Tot

al E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep.

Est

onia

Hun

gary

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Pol

and

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

veni

a

Tot

al N

MS

Tot

al E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020

Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication

Conclusions

• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.

• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:

– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)

– Ozone:

• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)

• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail

– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3

– Eutrophication remains unresolved

SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

EU-15

NewMember

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

EU-15

New Member

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25

Power generationPower generation

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Domestic

DomesticGasoline cars

Gasoline cars

Diesel carsDiesel cars

Off-road

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Diesel heavy duty veh.

Off-road

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2000 2020

VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]

EU-15

New Member

States

Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]

EU-15

NewMember

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2000 2005 2010 2015 20200

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]

EU-15

NewMember

States

Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes

NEC emission ceiling

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15

Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion

Industrial processesIndustrial processes

Diesel exhaust, cars

Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT

Non-exhaust Non-exhaust

Off-road Off-road

Agriculture Agriculture

Domestic, wood stoves

Domestic, wood stoves

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

2000 2020

Conclusions

• While accounting for continued economic growth …

• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%

• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation

• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.

– Small combustion sources!

– Industrial processes, solvents!

– Off-road vehicles and machinery!

• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25