lighthouse macro report - 2014 - march

8/12/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - March

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2/45

L I M

M R E I M 2014 P 2

C

....................................................................................................................................................... 3

L R P I........................................................................................................ 4

I .................................................................................................................................................. 5F F R ............................................................................................................................................ 10

C O ..................................................................................................................................................... 11

C: B P ................................................................................................................... 12

E: NF P ................................................................................................................ 13

E: E H ............................................................................. 14

E: J G/L .................................................................................................................. 15

E: I R NF P .................................................................................. 16

E: F ............................................................................................................................... 17

E: P, L F, E .................................................................................... 18

E: L F P R ............................................................................................. 19

E: ..................................................................................................................... 20

R: E ............................................................................................................................ 21

R: R D I .......................................................................................................... 22

R: C ................................................................................................................ 23

C C: M ............................................................................... 24

C C: C B ...................................................................................... 25

C: O ............................................................................................................................ 26

C: B L L .................................................................................................................... 27

R : N .................................................................................................................................. 28

R : R ......................................................................................................................................... 29

R : R ........................................................................................................................ 30R : E A ...................................................................................................................... 31

R : O...................................................................................................................................... 32

M: H ................................................................................................................... 33

E .......................................................................................................................................... 34

M: O ............................................................................................................................... 35

O: C G ................................................................................................................................. 36

M: D ............................................................................................................ 37

E: C .................................................................................................................................. 38

E: P...................................................................................................................................... 39

: M ................................................................................................................... 40: G C ...................................................................................................... 41

I: R D I C .............................................................................................. 42

I: C & P P....................................................................................................... 43

I E ................................................................................................................................. 44


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Summary

"G":

I IM I

"B":

F F 12 (1.5%) N 2009 D J (1.8) D (3.1) O 3 , 7.5% (A 2013: +17%) I (3.1%) A 2010 G (+0.2%)

. H, . R

. F

? I' $4 , 25% GDP.


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Lighthouse Recession Probability Index


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Introduction

R . K

.

I , NBER (N B

E R). NBER "

" (, , GDP ).

NBER ' ;

(D 2007) D 1, 2008 . B , &P

500 I 1,575 741. , J 2009

20, 2010 . B , &P 500

940 1,142.

NBER

( NBER ' ,

).

.

H, , &P 500

O 2007,

8 .

, F R B (

). H, ,

.

( 2 G, , D

) . ,

IRP (

).

I , ECRI (E C R I),

, "".

C B L I &P 500 I,

M2 (

).

A ,

NBER .


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L I M

M R E I M 2014 P 6

R GDP ; O A 28, 2008 ( 8

" "), Q2 2008 GDP +1.9%

+3.3%, 2% . L, 1.3%,

3.7%, 9.2% 5.4% (, ). &P 500 I '

2 1/2 .

F ""

NBER.

O 50 , : F.

, . D

F

. A F.

;

"" ( 3 ).

. O

( , ,

).

. O :

( ) ( ) /


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L I M

M R E I M 2014 P 7

N . ( )

( ). . ("")

; ("")

. A ,

. A 50% ,

100% .

"L R P I" (LRPI)

. H (: 3)

(: 1). O LRPI

1971, ( 40%50% ).

F R B . L C / P

( ). I ( , ,

). H, C/P

, LRPI (1 ).

LRPI C/P.

I , C "

80% ". A, "" 70% (2003/4) .

20% A 2012, 1.7% .


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M R E I M 2014 P 9

40% LRPI ( 40%) .

&P 500

( ):

A LRPI 7% (A 1980)

(2001) ' ' (20082009).

. ('') (

)

(19822000).

P LRPI .


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M R E I M 2014 P 10

Fed Funds Rate

("F") 9 .

F F ;

. A 2 4.5

1954.

R . ; .

( ) , ( )

. N

.

L R P I.


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Crude Oil

A 75% 100% . C M 2011 F 2012. C . C $113/ . LRPI


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M R E I M 2014 P 12

Construction: Building Permits

? N ! A 25%+

. M 2001 . 2011 . A 1990/91

( 250 317 2014).

C . H,

. LRPI.


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Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls

"", , .

"" . A

1% .

; "" 1980 1982

. , , 145,000

. "C P " ( ,

) 60,000 ( , ).

D ? O 47% A . 2007, , 2.5

. P "" . F

(Q1 2008) Q1 2010 1.2 "" ( $2154) ;

2 0.8 . 4

($1421) , 0.9 . A ($7$14), 1.3

, 2 . LRPI.


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Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey

N B E R (NBER) E

H .

A F E 175 (.150 ). A 12 180 ( 189).

A H , 12 150 ( 153).


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Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost

C E 100,000,

300,000.

+175,000 ( ) .

, .


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Employment: Initial and Revised Non-Farm Payrolls

( ), ( ) (/ ,

).

D ( ), 273,000.

I Q3 2008, 159, 190 273 ( L ). I , , J/J 2013

20079 .

BL (B L ) / , .

. A (

M) .


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Employment: Full Time

, .

P , ( ).

R :


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Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees

5 , , . . F ( ):


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Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate

' '( ). M

, .

L , ( , ).

E .


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Employment: Unemployment

L (49%) , 45.5% (, , ,

, ) , ' '

A . 2.5 2008. E

. I ,

, .

2007, 13 90, .

E .

, F 15.3%

( 6.7% ).


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Recessions: Employment

2008/9 6

E (= 100) , 10% ( 14

)


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Recessions: Real Disposable Income

R C 5 , 10%, $1.7

,


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Recessions: Consumer Spending

C "N " 1990'

2000'. H,

.

I , 20% ($2.2 ) 33% ($3.6 ) .

P , 303 317 (4.7%) .


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Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey

M, R, 500 ,

1964 100. A

.

(2005) (1981; 19801981 , ' ). A 25%+

. 2011 . LRPI

.


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Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey

C B, , 3,000

. 18 .

.

(1992, 2003), 1981/2 2001 ( ). 2011 " ".

LRPI .


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Credit: Total Outstanding

M . B ,

, 60 , 2009. A 2%

. I 1987 ( ). E

. , ,

. LRPI ,

:

Q2'09 CMDO GDP (374%). Q3'07 10.6%,

&P 500 1,575.


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Credit: Bank Loans and Leases

1971, 2% H,


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Retail Sales: Nominal

F LRPI, " " ( ). N , .

N; N, D J :

.


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Retail Sales: Real

N ; LRPI R O:

, .


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Retail Sales: Real per-capita

R 5% R O:

N . H, J ( 3 )


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Retail Sales: Excluding Autos

M , $80 1/5 , , . B ,

( ).

I Q4 2012, 45% (FICO


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Retail Sales: Online

O (A, ) $40

15% ( ' )

O . ( )


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Manufacturing: Hours Worked

C ' A 2%

( 1996); LRPI

G I ,


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Weekly Earnings

A G :


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Manufacturing: Orders

I M (IM) ,, .

A 50 "" ( ). (1989).

LRPI . H, 13.2 J 40

( 3 ). I .


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Orders: Capital Goods

D , . "" . " "

5% 0%. LRPI. C .

D

G


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Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries

M (1985, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2005) . , "" .

.


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Energy: Consumption

I . . I 1% , '

L ,

C 100% "E " LRPI


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Energy: Production

E . , , (1983, 1992, 1997, 2006), "";

2.5% . 0.5%

, .

I J, 0.3%, " "

LRPI


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Transportation: Miles Traveled

2.25 (0.7%) , . I

0.1% , (

).

2001 . 2011 (

). 2007 ;

1980/81. O ,

. A A

' .

, . ,

, LRPI. I M,

, .


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Transportation: Gasoline Consumption

C , ;

"L" (1996) 2012 ( ) ,

0% " ", ,

. I LRPI.


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Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita

I D:

G , ( )

I D,

. ,

. H, D 2012 (

D 2013 ).


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Inflation: Consumer & Producer Prices

D F (

)


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Inflation Expectations

R = . R :

IP. 5 (), 10 () 30

() . "" ;

( ). , ,

. I :


45/45

L I M

A .

A.G@LIM.

,

'

,

'

, , ,

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

, ()

() ,

lighthouse macro report - 2014 - march

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