lighthouse macro report - 2014 - november

8/10/2019 Lighthouse Macro Report - 2014 - November

1/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 1


2/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 2

C

....................................................................................................................................................... 3

L P I........................................................................................................ 4

I .................................................................................................................................................. 5F F ............................................................................................................................................ 10

C O ..................................................................................................................................................... 11

C: B P ................................................................................................................... 12

E: NF P ................................................................................................................ 13

E: E H ............................................................................. 14

E: J G/L .................................................................................................................. 15

E: I NF P .................................................................................. 16

E: F ............................................................................................................................... 17

E: P, L F, E .................................................................................... 18

E: L F P ............................................................................................. 19

E: ..................................................................................................................... 20

: E ............................................................................................................................ 21

: D I .......................................................................................................... 22

: C ................................................................................................................ 23

C C: M ............................................................................... 24

C C: C B ...................................................................................... 25

C: O ............................................................................................................................ 26

C: B L L .................................................................................................................... 27

: N .................................................................................................................................. 28

: ......................................................................................................................................... 29

: ........................................................................................................................ 30 : E A ...................................................................................................................... 31

: O...................................................................................................................................... 32

M: H ................................................................................................................... 33

E .......................................................................................................................................... 34

M: O ............................................................................................................................... 35

O: C G ................................................................................................................................. 36

M: D ............................................................................................................ 37

E: C .................................................................................................................................. 38

E: P...................................................................................................................................... 39

: M ................................................................................................................... 40: G C ...................................................................................................... 41

I: D I C .............................................................................................. 42

I: C & P P....................................................................................................... 43

I D .......................................................................................................................................... 44

I D ............................................................................................................................... 45

I E ................................................................................................................................. 46


3/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 3

Summary

"G":

F

C

B

"B":

1% '

M 2006

N L F P

G ,

. H,

. C , GDP

. (66 ) (65

) (59 ) 1958. F

? I $4 , 25% GDP. A

F .


4/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 4

Lighthouse Recession Probability Index

0%

P I E 2


5/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 5

Introduction

. K

.

I , NBE (N B

E ). NBE "

" (, , GDP ).

NBE ' ;

(D 2007) D 1, 2008 . B , &P

500 I 1,575 741. , J 2009

20, 2010 . B , &P 500

940 1,142.

NBE

( NBE ' ,

).

.

H, , &P 500

O 2007,

8 .

, F B (

). H, ,

.

( 2 G, , D

) . ,

IP (

).

I , ECI (E C I),

, "".

C B L I &P 500 I,

M2 (

).

A ,

NBE .


6/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 6

GDP ; O A 28, 2008 ( 8

" "), Q2 2008 GDP +1.9%

+3.3%, 2% . L, 1.3%,

3.7%, 9.2% 5.4% (, ). &P 500 I '

2 1/2 .

F ""

NBE.

O 50 , : F.

, . D

F

. A F.

;

"" ( 3 ).

. O

( , ,

).

. O :

( ) ( )

/


7/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 7

N . ( )

( ). . ("")

; ("")

. A ,

. A 50% ,

100% .

"L P I" (LPI)

. H (: 3)

(: 1). O LPI

1971, ( 40%50% ).

F B . L C / P

( ). I ( , ,

). H, C/P

, LPI (1 ).

LPI C/P.

I , C "

80% ". A, "" 70% (2003/4) .

20% A 2012, 1.7% .


8/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 8


9/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 9

40% LPI ( 40%) .

&P 500

( ):

A LPI 7% (A 1980)

(2001) ' ' (20082009).

. ('') (

)

(19822000).

P LPI .


10/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 10

Fed Funds Rate

("F") 9 .

F F ;

. A 2 4.5

1954.

. ; .

( ) , ( )

. N

.

L P I.


11/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 11

Crude Oil

A 75% 100% .

C M 2011 F 2012.

C .

C $113/ .

LPI


12/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 12

Construction: Building Permits

? N ! A 25%+

. M 2001 . 2011 . A 1990/91

( 250 317 2014).

M () ()

. LPI. C .


13/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 13

Employment: Non-Farm Payrolls

"", , .

"" . A

1% .

; "" 1980 1982

. , , 145,000

. "C P " ( ,

) 60,000 ( , ).

D ? O 47% A . 2007, , 2.5

. P "" . F

(Q1 2008) Q1 2010 1.2 "" ( $2154) ;

2 0.8 . 4

($1421) , 0.9 . A ($7$14), 1.3

, 2 . LPI.


14/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 14

Employment: Establishment versus Household Survey

N B E (NBE) E

H .

A E , . A

12 220.

A H , 12

317 ( 194), ( O 2013).


15/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 15

Employment: Jobs Gained/Lost

C .

E 100,000,

300,000.

.


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 16

Employment: Initial and Revised Non-Farm Payrolls

( ),

( ) (/ ,

).

D ( ),

273,000.

I Q3 2008, 159, 190 273 ( L ).

I , .

BL (B L ) /

, .

. A (

M) .


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 17

Employment: Full Time

. D ,

.

P ,

( ).

A J, :


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 18

Employment: Population, Labor Force, Employees

5 , , .

.

L :


19/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 19

Employment: Labor Force Participation Rate

L F P

( ). M

, .

L ,

( , ).

E ;

.


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M E I N 2014 P 20

Employment: Unemployment

L (49%) , 45.5%

(, , ,

, ) , ' '

A .

2.5 2008. E

. I ,

, .

2007, 13 90

, .

E .

, 14.3% ( 5.8%

).


21/48

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M E I N 2014 P 21

Recessions: Employment

2008/9

I M 2014, (= 100)

77

, 10% ( 14

)


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 22

Recessions: Real Disposable Income

C 5 , 10%, $1.7

,


23/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 23

Recessions: Consumer Spending

C

"N " 1990'

2000'. H,

.

I , 20% ($2.2 )

33% ($3.6 ) .

P , 303 319

(5%) .


24/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 24

Consumer Confidence: University of Michigan Survey

M, , 500

,

1964 100. A

.

(2005) (1981; 19801981

, ' ). A 25%+

. 2011 . LPI

.


25/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 25

Consumer Confidence: Conference Board Survey

C B, ,

3,000

. 18 .

.

(1992, 2003),

1981/2 2001 ( ). 2011 " ".

LPI .


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 26

Credit: Total Outstanding

M . B ,

, 60 , 2009. A 2%

. I 1987 ( ). E

. , ,

. LPI ,

:

Q2'09 CMDO GDP (374%). Q3'07 10.6%,

&P 500 1,575 .


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 27

Credit: Bank Loans and Leases

1971, 2%

C ,


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 28

Retail Sales: Nominal

F LPI, " " ( ). N

, .

2014; J :

.


29/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 29

Retail Sales: Real

N ; LPI

Q4 Q1, M:

' ' .


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L I M

M E I N 2014 P 30

Retail Sales: Real per-capita

5%

G Q2, :

N .


31/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 31

Retail Sales: Excluding Autos

M , $90 (20% ),

, . E ,

'' ( ).

I Q4 2012, 45% (FICO


32/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 32

Retail Sales: Online

O (A, )

$40

15% (

' )

O .

( )


33/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 33

Manufacturing: Hours Worked

C '

A 2%

( 1996); LPI

C


34/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 34

Weekly Earnings

A

G Q2:


35/48

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M E I N 2014 P 35

Manufacturing: Orders

I M (IM) ,

, . A 50 "" ( ).

(1989) LPI.

IM .

H, 13.2 J 2014 40

( 3 ). I .


36/48

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M E I N 2014 P 36

Orders: Capital Goods

D , .

"" . " "

5% 0%. LPI. C .

D

G Q2


37/48

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M E I N 2014 P 37

Manufacturing: Supplier Deliveries

M (1985, 1989, 1995, 1998, 2005) . ,

"" .

.


38/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 38

Energy: Consumption

I .

. I 1% , '

L ,

C 88%

"E " LPI


39/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 39

Energy: Production

E . , ,

(1983, 1992, 1997, 2006), "";

2.5% . 0.5%

, .

E 2012

LPI


40/48

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M E I N 2014 P 40

Transportation: Miles Traveled

2.25 (0.7%) , . I

0.1% , (

).

2001 . 2011 (

). 2007 ;

1980/81. O ,

. A A

' .

, . ,

, LPI. I M,

, .


41/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 41

Transportation: Gasoline Consumption

C , ;

"L" (1996)

2012 ( )

,

0%

" ", ,

. I LPI.


42/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 42

Income: Real Disposable Income per Capita

I 2013:

G ,

( )

I D 2013,

. ,

. H, D 2012 (

D 2013 ).


43/48

L I M

M E I N 2014 P 43

Inflation: Consumer & Producer Prices

C . H,

1%

CB +12% J 3%

F ( GDP) (

)

I ,


44/48

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M E I N 2014 P 44

Inflation Drivers

I CPI:

41% (, , , )

16% (, , )

15% ( , )

"OE", , .

.

. H,

OE.


45/48

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M E I N 2014 P 45

Inflation Drivers - Table

O 3 , 0.1%, 1.0%

P ( ) ,

C

(

, )

OE

M C


46/48

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M E I N 2014 P 46

Inflation Expectations

= . :

IP. 5 (), 10 () 30

() . "" ;

( ). , ,

. I :


47/48

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M E I N 2014 P 47

:

O . A

CPI .

O , ( )

CPI ( ''.

:

B L (BL) " " ,

. I , /

, BL . ,

, 100 (198284) 8.4, 92% (, ,

).

(.. J ) ''

, BL 1980. H

10%:

BL , I 2000

810%. O 14 , GDP 60% ($10 $17), 4% . , GDP 4%

14 , 40%. I

( ).


48/48

L I M

A .

A G LIM

,

'

,

'

, , ,

+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

, ()

() ,

lighthouse macro report - 2014 - november

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