leducmin - compiled impact uniqueness supplement

8/13/2019 LeDucMin - Compiled Impact Uniqueness Supplement

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Drug War Uq***


3/22

Drug War Success

Trevino Moraless death the Los Zetos leader signals a change in Drug War. TheStatusQuo is solving now.Bratu, NBC Staff Writer, 7/16[Becky, 7/16/13, NBC World News, Capture of Zetas leader may increase violence in Mexico,http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/17/19507395-capture-of-zetas-leader-may-increase-

violence-in-mexico, 7/19/13, JZ]Nevertheless, Trevino Morales' capture was seen as a victory for the administration of President Enrique Pea Nieto,

who came into office in December 2012 promising to reduce the violence in Mexico. But his approach has beenbased more on intelligence informationand has been less aggressive than that of former President FelipeCalderon.The U.S. Embassy in Mexico City even congratulated the government and law enforcement officials for getting TrevinoMorales, whom they characterized as "one of the most wanted criminal suspects in Mexico.""This is yet another advance by the people of Mexico in the dismantling of organized crime," the statement released

Monday read.


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Drug War Fail

The drug war is not declining and will not end unless there is cooperation.Hornberger, founder and president of The Future of Freedom Foundation, 7/18[Jacob, 7/18/13, MWC News, Is the Drug War now Over?, http://mwcnews.net/focus/politics/28714-drug-war-over.html , 7/19/13, JZ]

Young people have no idea that people who have grown up with the drug war have heard all the Trevino-typebuzz before. Two big drug busts involved such famous drug cartels as the Medellin Cartel (headed by PabloEscobar, who was the Trevino of his day) and the Cali Cartel.It has never made any difference insofar as the drug war is concerned. The busts are made and people go to prison.There are quickly replaced by new suppliers, and the war just keeps on going.The whole process is gotten to the point where the DEA and the drug lords need each other. Everyone knows that ifthe drug war were ended with drug legalization, the drug lords would go out of business immediately, just asthe booze lords did after Prohibition was ended. Drug lords can compete only in an illegal market, not a legalone.So drug legalization is not what the drug lords want. But its also not what the DEA wants. If the drug lords were put out of

business with drug legalization, the DEA would be put out of business too. That would obviously mean layoffs for DEAagents and DEA officials, people who depend on their generous drug-war salaries and pensions to pay their mortgages,raise their families, and fund their retirement.

There is also the matter of corruptionto consider. The drug war generates unbelievably great opportunities for publicofficials, including cops, prosecutors, and judges to make generous amounts of money on the side through bribery. Infact,when Trevino was captured, he was carrying $2 million in cash with him, no doubt forthe purpose of makingpayoffs when necessary.If drugs were legalized, those opportunities to make money from drug-war bribery woulddisappear instantaneously. Thats a powerful disincentive to ending the drug war on the part of public officials.So, anyone who thinks that the Trevino arrest means the end of the 40-year-old drug war is obviously suffering from anextreme case of naivet. There is too much money involved, both on the drug-dealer side and on the law-enforcement sideThey need each other, which is why both sides want the drug war to keep going and going and going.


5/22

Warming Uq***


6/22

Warming Coop High

The US and Mexico have been cooperating on clean energy projects for yearsUPI, a leading provider of critical information to media outlets, businesses, governments andresearchers worldwide, 2012

(March 29, United Press International, Mexico buoyed by renewable energy boost, aims for solarproject, http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2012/03/29/Mexico-buoyed-by-renewable-energy-boost-aims-for-solar-project/UPI-59891333048596/, accessed 7/6/13, CBC)

MEXICO CITY, March 29 (UPI) -- Mexico, buoyed by success in wind energy expansion, is launching a giant solarenergy project that sees a U.S. firm's role in its primary development. Soaring crude oil prices have skewed national

budgets throughout Central and Latin America and the ongoing row between Argentina and Spain's YPFRepsol is an indication of tension over rising energy costs. Mexico will aim to circumvent the challenge ofpunishing oil prices by installing high-capacity solar power generation systems, company data indicated.Californian solar systems provider SolFocus, Inc. said Thursday it joined with Mexican land and real estatedeveloper Grupo Musa and U.S. energy developer Synergy Technologies LLC to work on a landmark solarpower plant in Baja California, near Tecate, Mexico. The plant is planned to have a 450-megawatt capacity but

will be built in 50-megawatt phases. Construction on the first phase will begin this year and that part of theplant will be operational next year. The plant will use the SolFocus Concentrator Photovoltaic equipment, but

will be owned and operated by SolMex Energy S.A. de C.V., a new Grupo Musa and Synergy Technologiescompany focused on solar energy in Mexico. Officials said Mexico's solar energy aims met with the objectives of bothMexican and U.S. energy planners. "The project is in direct alignment with the Mexico and U.S. bilateral clean energyagenda," said David Munoz, director general of the Baja California State Commission of Energy. "The countries share acommon goal of achieving strong economic growth and energy security while addressing climate change and increasing

the reliability of energy infrastructure," Munoz said. "Mexico has been successful with wind energy, and now thislarge solar project will support our energy infrastructure and economic development efforts in the very nearfuture," he said.

The US and Mexico joined a joint agreement to facilitate an interconnected grid withclean energy technologiesENS, , 2012(April 3, Environmental News Service, U.S., Canada, Mexico Vow Continental Energy Grid,http://ens-newswire.com/2012/04/03/u-s-canada-mexico-vow-continental-energy-grid/, accessed7/6/13, CBC)

WASHINGTON, DC, April 2, 2012 (ENS) The leaders of the United States, Mexico, and Canadatoday pledged todevelop continental energy, including electricity generation and interconnection across national borders and welcomed

increasing North American energy trade.Meeting in Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama, Canadas

President Stephen Harper and Mexicos President Felipe Calderon committed their governments to enhancetheir collective energy security, to facilitate seamless energy flows on the interconnected grid and to promote tradeand investment in clean energy technologies.They will cooperate in expanding cooperation to create clean energyjobsand combat climate change,the leaders said in a joint statement. Enhanced electricity interconnection in the

Americaswould advance the goals of the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas to reduce energy poverty andincrease the use of renewable sources of energy, the three leaders said.

Cooperation on renewable energy is highDonnelly, associate with the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center, 2010


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(Robert, June 28, New Security Beat, U.S.-Mexico Cooperation on Renewable Energy: Building aGreen Agenda, http://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2010/06/u-s-mexico-cooperation-on-renewable-energy-building-a-green-agenda/#.UdnKbjs3u8B, accessed 7/7/13, CBC)

A U.S.-Mexico taskforce on renewables was recently formedan announcement timed to coincide with PresidentFelipe Calderons April 2010 state visit to Washingtonand there has been high-level engagement on the issue by

both administrations.Collaboration between Mexico and U.S. government agencies through the Mexico RenewableEnergy Program has enabled richer development of Mexicos renewable resources while promoting the electrification and

economic development of parts of rural Mexico.


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Warming Coop Low

no country on boardHale 11- PhD Candidate in the Department of Politics at Princeton University and a Visiting Fellow at LSE Global Governance, London School ofEconomics (Thomas, A Climate Coalition of the Willing, Washington Quarterly, Winter, http://www.twq.com/11winter/docs/11winter_Hale.pdf

Intergovernmental efforts to limit the gases that cause climate change haveall but failed. After theunsuccessful 2010 Copenhagen summit, and with little progress at the 2010 Cancun meeting, it is hard to see

how major emitters will agree any time soon on mutual emissions reductions that are sufficiently ambitious toprevent a substantial (greater than two degree Celsius) increase in average global temperatures. It is not hardto see why. No deal excluding the United States and China, which together emit more than 40 percent of the

worlds greenhouse gases(GHGs), is worth the paper it is written on.But domestic politics in bothcountries effectivelyblockG-2 leadership on climate. In the United States, the Obamaadministrationhas basically given upon national cap-and-trade legislation. Even the relatively modest Kerry-Lieberman-Graham energy bill remains dead in the Senate. The Chinese government, in turn, faces an even harsherconstraint.Although the nation has adopted important energy efficiency goals, theChinese CommunistParty has staked its legitimacyand political survival on raising the living standardof average Chinese

Acceptinginternational commitments that stand even a small chance of reducing the countrysGDPgrowth rate below a crucial threshold poses an unacceptable riskto the stability of the regime.

Although the G-2present the largest and most obvious barrier to a global treaty, they also provide a

convenient excuse for other governments to avoid aggressive action. Therefore, the internationalcommunity should not expect to negotiate a worthwhile successor to the Kyoto Protocol, at least not in the nearfuture.

China is a greater cause of warming- destroys all solvencyWortzel 8(Former Director of Asian Studies at the Heritage Foundation (Larry et al, Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and SecurityReview Commission, Nov, p. google)

China argues that developed countries are the primary cause of climate change and therefore places primary responsibility for re ducing emissions onthose countries rather than on China and other developing countries, a concept identified as common but differentiated responsibilities. 190 The

United States is the largest historical greenhouse gas emitter and far exceeds China in emissions per capita.191 However, in the past two years Chinahas overtaken the United States intotal production of greenhouse gas emissions.All projectionsindicate that, in

the absence ofmajor

energy consumption changes in China, both Chinas aggregate emissions and its shareof

global emissionswill continue to increase dramatically for the foreseeable future. The consequent reality is that it will beimpossiblefor the international community to resolve the climate change problem by sufficiently reducingemissions unless China contributes to the effort.The solution also is unachievable unless the United Statesas currently theworlds second largest emitter and the largest historical emitter of greenhouse gasesmakes a substantial contribution. Any efforts to address thisproblem will require global participation by developed and developing nations.

Studies proveAP 9(Associated Press, Six Degree Temperature Rise by 2100 is Inevitable: UNEP, September 24,http://www.speedy-fit.co.uk/index2.php?option=com_content&do_pdf=1&id=168)

Earth's temperature is likely to jump six degrees between now and the end of the century even if every countrycuts greenhouse gas emissionsas proposed, according to a United Nations update. Scientistslooked at emission

plansfrom 192 nations and calculated what would happento global warming. The projections take into account 80percent emission cuts from the U.S. and Europe by 2050, which are not sure things. The U.S. figure is based on a bill thatpassed the House of Representatives but is running into resistance in the Senate, where debate has been delayed by health care reform efforts. Carbondioxide, mostly from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, is the main cause of global warming, trapping the sun's energy in the atmosphere.

The world's average temperature has already risen 1.4 degrees since the 19th century. Much of projected rise in temperature is becauseof developing nations, which aren't talking much about cutting their emissions , scientists said at a United Nations pressconference Thursday. China alone addsnearly 2 degrees to the projections. "We are headed toward very serious changes in our planet,"said Achim Steiner, head of the U.N.'s environment program, which issued the update on Thursday. The review looked at some 400 peer-reviewed

papers on climate over the last three years. Even if the developed world cuts its emissions by 80 percent and thedeveloping world cuts theirs in half by 2050, as some experts propose, the world is still facing a 3-degree increase bythe end of the century, said Robert Corell, a prominent U.S. climate scientist who helped oversee the update. Corell said the most likelyagreement out of the international climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December still translates into a nearly 5-degree increase in world temperatureby the end of the century. European leaders and the Obama White House have set a goal to limit warming to just a couple degrees. The U.N.'s
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environment program unveiled the update on peer-reviewed climate change science to tell diplomats how hot the planet is getting. The last big reportfrom the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change came out more than two years ago and is based on science that is at least

three to four years old, Steiner said. Global warming is speeding up, especially in the Arctic, and that meansthat some top-levelscience projections from 2007 are already out of date and overly optimistic. Corell, who headed an assessment of warming inthe Arctic, said global warming "is accelerating in ways that we are not anticipating." Because Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheetsare melting far faster than thought, it looks like the seas will rise twice as fast as projected just three years ago, Corellsaid. He said seas should riseabout a foot every 20to 25years.


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Heg Uq***


11/22

Hegemony Declining Now

US hegemony is decreasing in Latin America, leaving it vulnerable to domesticterrorism Hezbollah has already been able to smuggle drugs, weapons, andoperatives across the US-Mexican borderNeumann, Senior Fellow of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, 11(Vanessa, 12/2011, Foreign Policy Research Institute, The New Nexus of Narcoterrorism: Hezbollah and

Venezuela,http://www.fpri.org/enotes/2011/201112.neumann.narcoterrorism.html, accessed 7/9/13, IC)

Yet for all this massive spending on fighting terroristsand insurgents in the Middle East, we are leaving ourselvesvulnerable to them here,on a number of fronts. First and foremost, the United States is under territorial threatthrough its Mexican border. Hezbollah operatives have already been smuggled, along with drugs and weapons, in tunnels

dug under the border with the US by Mexican drug cartels. Only a week after my October 5th interview by KTMcFarland on Fox, where I specifically warned of a possibility of this resulting in a terrorist attack carried outinside the US with the complicity of South American drug traffickers, the global press revealed a plot by theelite Iranian Quds Force to utilize the Mexican gang Los Zetas to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to

Washington in a bombing that would have murdered many Americans on their lunch hour.Second,American assets in Latin America are under threat. Embassies, consulates, corporate headquarters, energypipelines and American- or Jewish-sponsored community centers andAmerican citizens have already been

targeted by terrorist groups all over Latin America for decades: FARC in Colombia, Sendero Luminoso and Tupac Amaruin Peru and Hezbollah in Argentina. Al Qaeda is also rumored to have a strong presence in Brazil.Third, while American soldiers give their lives trying to defeat terrorists and violent insurgents in the MiddleEast, these same groups are being supported and strengthened increasingly by Latin America, where theyreceive training, weapons and cash. This makes American military engagement far more costly by any metric:loss of life and financial cost.Indeed over the last decade, Latin America is a region spiraling ever more out of American control. It is a region with

which the United States has a growing asymmetry of power: it has more importance to the United States,while theUnited States is losing influence over Latin America, which remains the largest source of oil, drugs and immigrants,bothdocumented and not. Latinos now account for 15 percent of the US population and nearly 50 percent of recentUS population growth, as well as a growing portion of the electorate, as seen in the last presidential elections.The discovery of huge new oil reserves in Brazil and Argentina, that might even challenge Saudi Arabia, and the 2012

presidential elections in Venezuela, make Latin America of increasing strategic importance to the U.S., particularly asthe future political landscape of the Middle East becomes ever more uncertain, in the wake of the Arab Spring and thepolitical rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in previously secular Arab governments. The growth of transnationalgangs andthe resurgence of previously waning terrorist organizations posecomplicated new challenges, as violenceand murder cross the U.S. border, costing American livesand taking a huge toll on U.S. law enforcement. The UnitedStates needs to develop a smart policy to deal with these challenges.

US leadership declining now in Latin America poor leadership in negotiating freetrade agreementsBoaz, Cato Institute Executive Vice President, 9(David, CATO Handbook for Policymakers, 2009, page 637-638, CATO Institute, RH)

During most of the time since the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreementwith Mexico and Canada in1993, however, the United States showed no such leadership. Instead,Washington promised to create a hemisphericfree trade zone, known as the Free Trade Area of the Americas, but made little effort to promote the idea.

The result was unfortunate, and a window of opportunity was lost. Latin American countries that were eager to enterinto a free trade agreement gradually became disillusioned with years of U.S. inaction, and some turned decidedly against

the idea of free trade.Worse, as economist Sebastian Edwards points out,Washingtons promise ofpromoting theFree Trade Area of the Americas had the perverse effect of actually halting unilateral trade barrier reductions in Latin

America as those countries waited to negotiate reductions as a group with the United States, an expectation that went

unfulfilled.Moreover, from the Mexican peso crisis of 199495 to the Brazilian currency crisis of 2002,Washington supported massive International Monetary Fund bailouts that encouraged irresponsible behaviorby investors and policymakers and surely increased the severity of economic crises in the region.
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13/22

Hegemony Low Now Latin America Shifting

Latin America is moving away from a US dominated, unipolar world the UShegemony caused balancingMarcella, U.S. Army War College Americas Studies director, 13(Gabriel, 3/22/13, Journal of International Affairs, The transformation of security in Latin America: a causefor common action,http://www.thefreelibrary.com/The+transformation+of+security+in+Latin+America%3a+a+cause+for+common...-a0330143508,accessed 7/9/13, IC)

Since the end of the Cold War, there has been a transformation of security in Latin America. Latin Americancountries have been moving towardthe concepts of multidimensional securityand security of the individual andsociety, and away from the classical understanding of thesecurity dilemma posed by an external threat to the state. Illeganarcotics, the proliferation of guns, and other transnational threats, combined with undergoverned space and the weakstate syndrome, generated an extraordinary crime wave, which gives the region the highest murder rate in the world.Moreover, crime imposes a heavy cost on economic growth and democratic governance. This insecurity crossesinternational borders, and the institutions of public security--police, military, and judicial systems--are hardpressed to meet the challenge. The privatization of security is a symptom of the problem and a potential sourceof abuse. TheUnited States shares responsibility for the violence due to U.S. demand for illegal drugs and the

fact that it is a supplier of arms to Latin America. At the same time, there is a growing consensus in support ofcommon action, as evidenced by the international coalition that is operating under Operation Martillo--theantinarcotics effort in the Caribbean and Central America. Moreover, a number of Latin American countriescontribute to internationalpeace operations.Accordingly, the new strategic consensus among Latin Americancountries should be a cause for common action.On 21 September 2001,theOrganization of American States (OAS) passed resolution that condemned the terroristattacksof 9/11 in support of the United States. (1) That would be the last collective security action undertheInter-

American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance of 1947, also known as the Rio Treaty. The assumption in 1947 wasthat threats would come from outside the Hemisphere. For the next four decades, that threat was internationalcommunism.UnlikeNATO,the Rio Treaty never developed a robust defense alliance that integrated a political decision-makingprocess for using military force, in part because Latin American countries were relative bystanders in the East-

West struggle. Moreover, the enormous asymmetry in military power between the United States and Latin Americancountries created reluctant partners, based on the fear that this power could be used against them. The more the UnitedStates pushed for collective defense, the more Latin America resisted, leveraging the instruments of inter-Americansecurity to promote their own security and to balance American power. This studied ambivalence did not prevent theemergence of a strategic consensus for common action against the communist-inspired insurgencies of the1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.

Latin America is rejecting US hegemonyBerry, Policy director of the International Relations Center, 5(Tom, 7/15/5, Mission creep in Latin America US Southern Commands New Security Strategy,http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article9472.htm, 7/9/13, AL)

The United States is the great power that has come closest to being a global hegemon. Like most hegemons,the United States of America began building its hegemonic reach in its backyard or what, in the moreelevated parlance of foreign policy journals, is known as the near abroad. One might expect that U.S. hegemony

would be strongest in Latin Americaand the Caribbean. But U.S. control is disintegrating in its own hemisphere at thevery time when the Bush administration has embarked on global crusades to crush anti-U.S. regimes, combat anti-U.S.

terrorism, and bolster alliances among free-market democracies around the globe. Pax Americana in the Americasadeclared foreign policy objective since the Monroe Doctrine of 1823is no longer a sure bet.Throughout the region, grassroots movements, opposition leaders, and governments themselves are rejecting U.S.leadership. Theres an emerging consensus that U.S. hegemony is not benevolent but rather malevolent.The U.S. Southern Command (Southcom), which defines Latin America and the Caribbean as its Area ofResponsibility (AOR), isclearlyworried. With a more extensive presence in the region than any other part of the
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U.S. government, the U.S. military has been the first to identify in any integrated way the rising threats to U.S.hegemony.Rather than questioning the wisdom of current U.S. foreign and military policy, the Pentagon and Southcomhave resurrected traditional strategies and launched new initiatives. However, because these responses runcounter to the real security needs and national interests of both the United States and the nations within its

AOR, these responses serve only to fuel counter-hegemonic forces.Washington is losing control of its backyard. If the U.S. government stays the coursewith its current foreign andmilitary policy, as President Bush has repeatedly asserted is whats needed to keep the country strong, theUnited States is on a collision course with Latin Americaand the Caribbean.

U.S. national security policy has evolved in recent years through a combination of mission creep thatencompasses expanding definitions of national security, and more overt hegemonic aspirations. Leadingstrategists and ideologues of the Bush administration believe openly that U.S. global domination is the best andin any case inevitable form of world governance.But at the same time this expanding scope of national security and hegemony confronts a counter-hegemonic backlash.There is a new spirit of resistance, reformism, and self-determination in Latin Americaand the Caribbean.

US influence in Latin America is declining Latin America is becoming independent ofWashington.Crandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, Academic

Search Complete. Accessed 7-6-13. RH)

Across the region in recent years, the United States has seen its influence decline. Latin American countries areincreasingly looking for solutions among themselves, forming their own regional organizations that exclude the United

States and seeking friends and opportunities outside of Washington's orbit.Some U.S. allies areeven reconsidering theirbelief in the primacy of relations with the United States. Much of this has to do with the end of the Cold War, a conflict

that turned Latin America into a battleground between U.S. and Soviet proxies.Washington has also made a series ofmistakes in the years since then, arrogantly issuing ultimatums that made it even harder to get what it wanted in Latin

America.

At the same time as U.S. influence has diminished, Latin America's own capabilities have grown. The region hasentered into an era of unprecedented economic, political, and diplomatic success. Most visibly, Brazil has emerged as aneconomic powerhouse, attracting foreign investment with an economy that grew 7.5 percent last year.(Regionwide, average GDP growth last year was 5.6 percent.) Regular free elections and vibrant civil societies arenow commonplace in Latin America, and the region's diplomats are more visible and confident in global forums than ever

before. After decades on the receiving end of lectures from Washington and Brussels, Latin American leaders are eager to

advertise their recent gains. Santos has been known to tell visiting foreign counterparts that this will be "LatinAmerica's century."


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Hegemony Low Now Regional Powers

Regional powers are rising in Latin America as US influence declines Brazil,Colombia, and multilateral organizations prove.Crandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, AcademicSearch Complete. Accessed 7-6-13. RH)

LATIN AMERICA'S economic growth and political stability are driving an unprecedented power shift within the region.Countries are reassessing their interests and alliances, and the more confident among them are flexing their muscles.Instead of looking to Washington for guidance, Latin American countries are increasingly working among themselves toconduct diplomacy, pursue shared objectives, and, at times, even spark new rivalries.

Brazil's emergence as a serious power is a direct result of the increasing absence of U.S. influence in the region. Sensingan opportunity to gain the regional stature that has long eluded it, the country has begun to act more assertively.But complicating Brazil's power play is the reaction from its fellow Latin American nations. Colombian,Mexican, and Peruvian officials, among others, talk privately about their dislike of Brazil's arrogant diplomacy.In some quarters, Brazil's responses to developments such as Chavez's ongoing assault on Venezuela'sdemocracy and even the 2009 coup in Honduras have undermined its credibility as a serious leader. (Brasilia'sreluctance to speak out for hemispheric democracy is particularly inexcusable for a government that includes

many officials who suffered under the successive military regimes of the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s.) Many LatinAmerican officials quietly reveal that they are not eager to see Brazil replace the United States as the hemisphere'shegemon. As one diplomat recently put it, "The new imperialists have arrived, and they speak Portuguese."

Yet Brazil is learning that leadership means responsibility. Relations with its neighbor Bolivia are a case in point. After theU.S. Drug Enforcement Administration was kicked out of Bolivia, Brasilia belatedly realized that Bolivia's cocaine exports--most of which are destined for Brazil, Argentina, or Europe--represented a serious challenge and so stepped up its

counternarcotics cooperation with Bolivia.Fortunately, the United States and Brazil are eager to work together oncounternarcotics. Bolivia will be a key test of this cooperation--made all the more important by the bitterdiplomatic flap that erupted in May 2010 between U.S. President Barack Obama and then Brazilian PresidentLuiz Incio Lula da Silva over the Iranian nuclear deal brokered by Brazil and Turkey.Colombian leaders are also aware of the shifting balance of power within Latin America. With the recent departure ofthe inimitable Lula, whose charisma and presence overshadowed the efforts of other Latin American leaders,Santos now believes his government can assume the mantle of regional leadership by adopting a more balanced foreign

policy, one less dependent on Washington.Although Santos has no desire to do away with his country's long-standingcloseness to the United States, he understands that Colombia's credibility is now more dependent on its ability tocooperate with other regional governments, most important of all, Brazil's.Further evidence of Colombia's diplomatic and strategic maturity can be found in the way it has begun exporting its

counterinsurgency and counternarcotics expertise to places as far away as Afghanistan.For almost half a century, theColombian government has waged a bloody war against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, orFARC. But it has been only in the past several years that the Colombian state, backed by billions of dollars inU.S. assistance, has gained the upper hand. Overwhelmed by this fight until recently, Colombia's security forcesnow use their hangars and equipment to train pilots from Mexico and Peru and counternarcotics operativesfrom Afghanistan.

As Latin America comes into its own, it is beginning to rely more on its own multilateral bodies. For the past 60 years, theOrganization of American States, headquartered in Washington, has struggled to gain credibility in the region, as criticssaw it as a guise for U.S. domination. In recent years, however, it has codified the primacy of democracy in its guiding

principles--an important development suggesting that OAS members now consider democracy a shared goal as opposed toa foreign imposition.


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Hegemony Low Now China

Hegemony low in Latin America focus on Middle East detractsBurbach Center for the Studies of The Americas Director et al 13[Roger, Michael Fox freelancer, Federico Fuentes Bolivian Socialist Alliance director, 3/11/13, Latin AmericasTurbulent Transitions,http://climateandcapitalism.com/2013/03/11/latin-americas-turbulent-transitions/,accessed 7/5/13, ALT]

An opening chapter outlines the international context. The old order is breaking down with the decline of theUnited States as the planets hegemonic power. Andwhile Washington is preoccupied with its wars in the MiddleEast and South Asia, its grip on Latin America has weakened as an emerging China enters this market in search of rawmaterials to supply its booming economy. China is now the largest trading partner of Brazil and Chile. Its trade with Latin

America as a whole increased eighteen-fold in the first decade of this century, while U.S. exports droppedfrom 55percent of the regions total to 32 percent.
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17/22

Hegemony Unsustainable

US heg decline inevitable in Latin America countries are becoming more independentBolivia proves.Crandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, AcademicSearch Complete. Accessed 7-6-13. RH)

Yet over the past decade or so, the United States' willingness and ability to exert control in the region have diminished.This has occurredin part because more important issues, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, have forcedLatin America down the policymaking food chain. But there is also the indisputable reality that the region itself is nowmore confident acting on its own. For the most part, this was inevitable, given the end of external and local communistchallenges and the shift to an increasingly multilateral world that had room for new powers. Latin America's greaterautonomy is both a cause and a result of decreased U.S. influence.

The United States' relationship with Bolivia provides one example of Washington's declining powerin the region.Believing that it was time to pay back the Americans for their years of backing his political opponents, BolivianPresident Evo Morales expelled the U.S. ambassador and the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration in 2008 and

suspended U.S.-funded democracy programs the following year.A decade or so ago, when Bolivia was a faithful client ofthe United States, it would have been unimaginable for a Bolivian government to even consider such acts, given

the diplomatic and financial consequences of provoking Washington's ire. Yet even the ostensibly hard-lineGeorge W. Bush administration responded to Morales' repeated diplomatic insults largely with silence. Moraleshad gone eyeball to eyeball with Washington and lived to tell about it.


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Hegemony Increasing Now

US influence in Latin America is higheconomic and soft power outweigh lack ofoverarching policies, but continued interest is key.Duddy, former Venezuelan Ambassador, and Mora, Florida University Latin America CenterDirector, 13[Patrick and Frank, 5/1/13, The Miami Herald, Latin America: Is U.S. influence waning?,http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html#storylink=cpy,accessed 7/9/13, ALT]

Is U.S. influence in Latin America on the wane? It depends how you look at it.As President Obama travels to Mexico and Costa Rica, its likely the pundits will once again underscore what

some perceive to be the eroding influence of the United States in the Western Hemisphere. Some will point to thedecline in foreign aid or the absence of an overarching policywith an inspiring moniker like Alliance for Progressor Enterprise Area of the Americas as evidence that the United States is failing to embracethe opportunitiesof aregion that is more important to this country than ever.

The reality is a lot more complicated. Forty-two percent of all U.S. exports flow to the Western Hemisphere. In manyways, U.S. engagement in the Americas is more pervasive than ever, even if more diffused. That is in part because thepeoples of the Western Hemisphere are not waiting for governments to choreograph their interactions.

A more-nuanced assessment inevitably will highlight the complex, multidimensional ties between the United States andthe rest of the hemisphere. In fact, it may be that we need to change the way we think and talk about the countriesof Latin America and the Caribbean. We also need to resist the temptation to embrace overly reductive

yardsticks for judging our standing in the hemisphere.As Moises Naim notes in his recent book, The End of Power, there has been an important change in power

distribution in the world away from states toward an expanding and increasingly mobile set of actors that aredramatically shaping the nature and scope of global relationships. In Latin America, many of the most substantiveand dynamic forms of engagement are occurring in a web of cross-national relationships involving small and largecompanies, people-to-people contact through student exchanges and social media, travel and migration.

Trade and investment remain the most enduring and measurable dimensions of U.S. relations with theregion. It is certainly the case that our economic interests alone would justify more U.S. attention to the region.Many observers who worry about declining U.S. influence in this area point to the rise of trade with China and

the presence of European companies and investors.While it is true that other countries are important to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, it is also stilltrue that the United States is by far the largest and most important economic partner of the region and trade is growingeven with those countries with which we do not have free trade agreements.

An area of immense importance to regional economies that we often overlook is the exponential growth intravel, tourism and migration. It is commonplace to note the enormous presence of foreign students in theUnited States but in 2011, according to the Institute of International Education, after Europe, Latin America wasthe second most popular destination for U.S. university students. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. tourists travel every

year to Latin America and the Caribbean helping to support thousands of jobs.From 2006-2011 U.S. non-government organizations, such as churches, think tanks and universities increased the

number of partnerships with their regional cohorts by a factor of four.Remittances to Latin America and theCaribbean from the United States totaled $64 billion in 2012. Particularly for the smaller economies of Central

America and the Caribbean these flows can sometimes constitute more than 10 percent of gross domestic

product.Finally, one should not underestimate the resiliency of U.S. soft power in the region. The power of national reputation,

popular culture,values and institutions continues to contribute to U.S. influence in ways that are difficult to measure and

impossible to quantify. Example: Despite 14 years of strident anti-American rhetoric during the Chvez government,tens of thousand of Venezuelans apply for U.S. nonimmigrant visas every year,including many thousands of Chvezloyalists.

Does this mean we can feel comfortable relegating U.S. relations with the hemisphere to the second or third tier of our

international concerns? Certainly not. We have real and proliferating interests in the region.As the president and histeam head to Mexico and Costa Rica, it is important to recognize the importance of our ties to the region.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html#storylink=cpyhttp://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html#storylink=cpy


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US soft power rising surveys proveRep. Farr, California Democrat, 13[Sam, Representative from California, 5/22/13, Latin America on the Rise Briefing Series: US Engagement inLatin America,http://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-america, accessed 7/9/13, ALT]

In 2009, the image of US leadership in Latin America had a 34% approval rating(Gallup). At the 2009 Summit of theAmericas, President Obama stated:If our only interaction with many of these [Latin American] countries is drug interdiction, if our only

interaction is military, then we may not be developing the connections that can, over time, increase ourinfluence.In 2012, the image of US leadership in Latin America had a 40% approval rating(Gallup). During a 2013 trip to Latin

America in early May, President Obama stated in Mexico:The relationship between our nations must be defined not by the threats that we face, but by the prosperityand the opportunity that we can create together.

US soft power is on the rise in Latin America even if the region is not a priorityCrandall, Davidson University Political Science Associate Professor, 11(Russell, May/June 2011, The Post-American Hemisphere, Foreign Affairs, Volume: 90 Issue: 3, AcademicSearch Complete. Accessed 7-6-13. RH)

IN HIS first term, U.S. President George W. Bush adopted a heavy-handed, unilateral approach to Latin America,attempting to force governments there to approve the U.S. invasion of Iraq and ensure U.S. soldiers' exemptionfrom the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court. This strategybackfired, and many governments,including traditional U.S. partners such as Chile and Mexico, refused. So in his second term, Bush attempted a moreconciliatory approach, for instance, cultivating a personal relationship with the leftist Lula. But it was too little,too late; Chavez and other radicals still played up Bush's reputation as a bully.After Obama took office, however, it

became much harder to use the U.S.-bashing strategy.In April 2009, at the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad,Obama tried to put his imprimatur on Washington's Latin America policy, emphasizing mutual respect and outlining a

vision of equal partnerships and joint responsibility. His deferential yet serious style quickly put the most conspiratorialanti-U.S. critics, such as Chavez, Morales, and Ortega, on the defensive--where they have remained ever since.

The United States' enhanced imageshould not be dismissed as a mere public relations victory; rather, it isindispensable to restoring Washington's influence in Latin America, since it makes it easier for willing governments to

cooperate with Washington on shared priorities without appearing to be subservient to the old hegemon. Obama'sapproach to the regioncan be seen as a more concerted continuation of the one Bush adopted in his second term,emphasizing responsibility as a prerequisite for cooperation and leadership--an implicit call for Latin America to solve its

own problems. Other than focusing on Mexico's drug violence, the Obama administration has not made LatinAmerica a priority. This may not be so bad:a little breathing room is appropriate, given the region's current stability.

US influence is strong in Latin AmericaDuddy, U.S. ambassador to Venezuela, 13(Patrick, Frank Mora Director of the Latin American and Caribbean Center and Professor in the Department ofPolitics & International Relations in the School of Public and International Affairs at Florida InternationalUniversity, 5/1/13, Latin America: Is U.S. influence waning?,

http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.html,7/6/13 ,AL)

While it is true that other countries are important to the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean, it isalso still true that the United States is by far the largest and most important economic partner of the region and trade isgrowing even with those countries with which we do not have free trade agreements.

An area of immense importance to regional economiesthat we often overlook is the exponential growth in travel,tourism and migration. It is commonplace to note the enormous presence of foreign students in the United States

but in 2011, according to the Institute of International Education, after Europe, Latin America was the second mostpopular destination for U.S. university students. Hundreds of thousands of U.S. tourists travel every year to Latin Americaand the Caribbean helping to support thousands of jobs.

From 2006-2011 U.S. non-government organizations, such as churches, think tanks and universities increasedthe number of partnerships with their regional cohorts by a factor of four. Remittances to Latin America and
http://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-americahttp://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-americahttp://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-americahttp://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.htmlhttp://www.miamiherald.com/2013/05/01/3375160/latin-america-is-us-influence.htmlhttp://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-americahttp://www.farr.house.gov/index.php/component/content/article/37-2013-press-releases/966-latin-america-on-the-rise-briefing-series-us-engagement-in-latin-america


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21/22

AT Brazil Rise

No Brazil dominance lack of economic strength and isolationKupchan, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow, 4-14-12(Charles A. Kupchan is Professor of International Affairs at Georgetown University and Whitney ShepardsonSenior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of No One's World: The West, the RisingRest, and the Coming Global Turn, 4-14-12, Council on Foreign Relations, "Why Nobody Will Dominate theTwenty-First Century," http://www.cfr.org/foreign-policy-history/why-nobody-dominate-twenty-first-century/p27958, accessed 7-3-12, CNM)

Brazil is in important respects best set to emerge as a global trendsetter. It is a stable democracy, blessed withample, land, labor, and natural resources. At least for now, Brasilia has found a developmental path thatcombines economic openness with redistribution programs aimed at alleviating inequality. And Brazil faces nogeopolitical rivals and resides in a region that has been remarkably free of inter-state war.But Brazil is not headed for the top ranks; its economy is expected to be five times smaller than that of China in 2050.

And Brazil's benign location in South America cuts both ways.Its relative isolation will enable Brasilia to remainaloof from the fray set to ensue in Eurasia and the western Pacific as China, India, Russia, and Indonesiaascend. But its distance will also limit its influence in this geopolitical heartland. Brazil is destined for regionalhegemony, not global ambition.


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Brazil Hegemony Benign

Brazilian influence benignTrebat, Columbia Global Center Director, 13[Thomas, 3/22/13, The Free Library, New directions for a more prosperous Brazil,http://www.thefreelibrary.com/New+directions+for+a+more+prosperous+Brazil.-a0330143512, 7/9/13, AL]

Energyis another major theme thatwill engage Brazil with the worldin the decades ahead. Its reliance onhydropower, biofuels, and renewables in general to fuel the economy's growthare well known and lend credibility to thenation on green economy issues and low-carbon growth patterns. A major unknownin the energy picture is theextentand practical importance of the hydrocarbon reserves found in deep waters off the coast. If the technology is available,and government policies well crafted, Brazil could also emergeover the next ten to fifteen years as a major exporter offossil fuelto a world still dependent on such resources which could reposition Brazil geostrategically.

Apart from these global themes, Brazil will continue to seek new institutional mechanisms to extend its globalinfluence. Brazil already has one of the most extensive diplomatic networks in Africa with nearly fortyembassies in African capitals. Brazil will become more intertwined with the African continent and will play animportant role in development assistance, agriculture, and food security. For Brazil, African nations are an increasinglyimportant outlet for exports, including construction and mining services, as well as allies in the UN and otherinternational forays on themes of common interest.

A newly prosperous Brazil can greatly contribute to the leadership of the global south, a role that Brazil is carefullycultivating. While much of the institutional interaction with the other BRIC nations (Russia, India, and China)is not much more than a photo opportunity for Brazil's leaders, Brazil and China are the two members of thisgroup with broader ambitions to expand trade with, and to offer leadership to, the south. The India-Brazil-South Africa initiative (IBSA) has contributed little in terms of incremental trade and investment, but it pointsto future directions in foreign policy and trade for Brazil. Relations with China, its largest trading partner, willgrow to be an ever-larger priority for Brazil. Given the intensity of the commodity trade and the growth ofBrazilian businesses in China, Sao Paulo and Shanghai are connected through a web of commercial andfinancial relationships, which are likely to intensify.Brazil's overall relationship with the West--the United States, Japan, and Europe--willalso continue to evolve asBrazil'sconfidence and resources increasein the next decade. (40) The relationship with the United States and the

West has not always been a smooth one. Brazil clashed multiple times with the United States over trade policy.

Brazil has always sought friendly relations with the West, but it has also been willing to take individualinitiative rather than line up behind the United States and its main allies, most recently in the case of Iran'suranium enrichment program. Yet, one can also see Brazil's future relationship with the United States and the rest ofthe West improving as common interests in trade and the environment, cultural similarities, and core democratic valuesplay a role in encouraging convergence, while long-standing divergences, such as over Cuba, fade into the past.

Finally, the new Brazil willalso seek to redefine relations with its regional neighbors to reflect new realities anddifferential patterns of political and economic growthwhich are simultaneously taking place in Latin America.Brazil, along with Mexico, willinevitably remain the predominant Latin American power, yet it will exercise this power

with great caution and without hegemonic impulses. For all its size and influence, Brazil is not a natural leader ofLatin America, not even of its own Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) network of trading partners. Itsuse of the Portuguese language alone sets it apart more than is often realized. Its different culture, includingimportant African and other non-Iberian heritages, also creates important differences with the Spanish-speaking nations of Latin America.

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