lcoe reduction potential of parabolic trough and solar tower csp … solarpaces... · 2016. 12....
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LCOE reduction potential of parabolic trough
and solar tower CSP technology until 2025
S. Dieckmann, J. Dersch, S. Giuliano, M. Puppe, E. Lüpfert, K. Hennecke, R. Pitz-Paal
(German Aerospace Center, DLR)
M. Taylor, P. Ralon
(International Renewable Energy Agency, IRENA)
SolarPACES Conference
Abu Dhabi
October 11-14, 2016
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Content
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 2
1. Introduction
2. System Overview 2015 vs. 2025
3. Cost Analysis
1. Parabolic Trough Field
2. Solar Tower System
3. Thermal Energy Storage
4. Power Block
4. Results
5. Conclusion
Source: noorouarzazate.com
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1. Introduction – Contributing Cost Factors for LCOE
Example based on annuity
loan over 25 years at 7.5%
Main Impact factors:
Investment cost (CAPEX)
Financing conditions
LCOE estimation is mainly
CAPEX estimation
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 3
Loan repayment
37%
Interest 47%
Insurance 5%
O&M 11%
Electricity from grid
0.5%
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1. Introduction – Methodology and Boundary Conditions
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 4
Technology-based bottom-up approach relying on inhouse
expertise as well as external data sources
Contrasted with published Power Purchase Agreements
(NOOR II + III)
Ouarzazate, Morocco, DNI: 2017 / 2558 / 2935 kWh/(m²∙a)
Currency: US-$2015
CSP capacity growth to about 20GW in 2025
Parabolic Trough Solar Tower
Nominal Electric Net Output 160 MW 150 MW
Thermal Storage Capacity 7.5 h 9 h
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2. System Overview – Parabolic Trough 2015 2025
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 5
Solar Field Thermal Storage Power Block HTF System
Aperture width: 7.5m 10m
Molten salt as HTF
Tout = 393°C 530°C Thot = 385°C 530°C
Storage volume halved!
η = 37.4% 42.7%
Constant optical
efficiency (79.1%)
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2. System Overview – Solar Tower 2015 2025
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 6
Heliostat Field Tower & Receiver Thermal Storage Power Block
Thot = 565°C 600°C η = 42.8% 43.9%
ρmirror = 89.3% 91.2%
Closed loop control
Optimized heliostat and field design
ηreceiver = 87.6% 90.5%
Higher acceptable flux
Enhanced thermo-hydraulic design
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3.1 Cost and Performance – Parabolic Trough Field
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 7
Total cost reduction: 23%
Cost reduction equally distributed
over sub-components
25% less collectors, foundations,
pylons, drives and receivers
Collector structure: -14 $/m²
(Sub-)supplier standards and
standardized designs
Automatization in manufacturing
HTF cost: -18$/m²
2015 2025
Collector UltimateTrough™ Future Trough
Turnkey Cost* 231 $/m² 177 $/m²
*: includes site preparation, collectors, piping, cabling, HTF, HTF system, assembly & construction
Source: sbp.de
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3.2 Cost and Performance – Solar Tower System
Total heliostat cost reduction: -28%
Mirrors: -9 $/m²
Reach parabolic trough mirror cost
Drives: -11 $/m²
Replace costly slewing drives
Closed loop control
Structure & foundations: - 10 $/m²
Bigger market volume, standardized designs
Idustrialized assembly procedures
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 8
Total receiver cost reduction: -20%
Improved material concepts
Optimized absorber surface utilization
Higher average solar flux
2015 2025
Heliostat Stellio™ Future Heliostat
Heliostat Field Cost* 143 $/m² 103 $/m²
Tower Cost 90,000 $/m 72,000 $/m
Receiver Cost 125 $/kWth 100 $/kWth
*: includes site preparation, heliostat field, cabling, assembly & construction
Source: sbp.de
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3.3 Cost and Performance – Thermal Storage
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 9
Both technologies:
Adapted storage materials
Innovative storage concepts (e.g. Single-tank thermocline storage)
Tower Storage Costs: -4 $/kWh (-17%)
Trough Storage Costs: -16 $/kWh (-38%)
-12.5 $/kWh for storage medium
halved storage fluid mass thanks to higher temperature
-3 $/kWh for HXs and pumps
Source: www.renewableenergyfocus.com
Parabolic Trough Solar Tower
2015 2025 2015 2025
Cost 42 26 26 22 $/kWh
Hot tank temperature 385 530 565 600 °C
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3.4 Cost and Performance – Power Block
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 10
Minor cost reduction potential
Dry cooling predominant
Efficiency gain thanks to
increased live steam
temperatures
Source: The Energy Blog – energy.org.za
Parabolic Trough Solar Tower
2015 2025 2015 2025
Cost 1220 1100 1270 1100 $/kW
Live Steam Temperature 383 520 555 590 °C
Thermal Efficiency 38.4 42.7 42.8 43.9 %
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3. Cost and Performance – Overview and Indirect Cost
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 11
Unit 2015 Cost variation [%]
2025
Trough Tower Trough Tower Trough Tower
Direct EPC costs Mio. $ 675 598 -24 -23 508 459
Engineering, management, add. EPC services
% on direct EPC 5 2
Profit margin and contingencies
% on direct EPC 10 19 6
Indirect EPC cost Mio. $ 101 144 -60 -74 41 37
Project development % on dir.+indir. EPC 10 4
Land cost $ / m² land 1 1
Infrastructure Mio. $ 6 6
Additional owner's cost % on dir.+indir. EPC 3 2
Owner’s cost Mio. $ 112 113 -61 -60 44 46
CAPEX Mio. $ 888 854 -33 -37 593 541
OPEX % of CAPEX 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9
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4. Results – Plant Output and LCOE
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 12
Until 2025 LCOEs decrease to
10 $-ct/kWh for medium DNI levels
7 $-ct/kWh for high DNI levels and favourable financing conditions
PPAs ≈ LCOE + 1…1.5 $-ct/kWh
Assuming 4% WACC, LCOE values match well to published PPAs from NOOR
Parabolic Trough 2015 2025
Annual el. output 576 GWh 625 GWh
Overall efficiency 15.1% 17.0%
Solar Tower 2015 2025
Annual el. output 598 GWh 644 GWh
Overall efficiency 15.5% 18.3%
WACC = 7.5%, DNI 2000-2900
PPA NOOR
WACC = 4% DNI 2550
( DNI values in [kWh / (m²∙a)] )
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5. Conclusion
> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 13
CAPEX: 5600 3600 $/kW (-35%) for both technologies (7.5/9h storage)
LCOEs can reach 7 $-ct/kWh (high DNI, favourable financing)
Major cost drivers Trough:
Molten salt as HTF
Trough collector CAPEX
Major cost drivers Tower
Steep learning curve, reduction of contingencies, overcoming of teething troubles
Heliostat field CAPEX
Financing conditions are a massive cost driver:
For each 1%-point WACC reduction LCOEs decrease by 1.1 $-ct/kWh
IRENA publication (2016): „The power to change – Solar and Wind Cost Reduction Potential to 2025”
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> SolarPACES Conference > Oct 11-14, 2016 > Abu Dhabi > LCOE reduction of CSP until 2025 > Simon Dieckmann DLR.de • Chart 14
THANK YOU
for your attention!
Simon Dieckmann
DLR – Line Focus Systems
Contact:
MANY THANKS
to all contributing
partners, co-authors
and colleagues!