labor market trends - texas workforce commission market trends texas external relations ......

Labor Market and Career Information

Labor Market Trends

TexasExternal Relations

Division

November 30, 2017


Current EventsAND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT


Texas Initial Claims4-week Moving Average


41 FEMA Disaster CountiesHurricane Harvey

Counties Sep-2017 OTM Change

Aransas 9.6 4.1

Refugio 7.3 1.6

Orange 8.3 1.5

Jefferson 8.4 1.0

San Patricio 8.1 0.8

Calhoun 6.1 0.4

Hardin 6.6 0.1

Texas 4.0 -0.5


US Jobs ReportImpact of Disasters on Economy After Harvey, worst report in 7 years

Estimated 33,000 jobs lost got revised up to a gain of 18,000 jobs in September

Car sales surged last month – 3rd highest level ever

Hurricane destruction slowed economy temporarily, but U.S. added 261,000 jobs in October

◦ Labor shortages are becoming a problem◦ Shortage intensifying as recovery efforts accelerate◦ We are seeing high demand for damage-related construction workers


Texas Economy


Unemployment Rates –Texas & USSeasonally Adjusted, 2007 – September 2017


Annualized Employment GrowthTexas vs. U.S.(Seasonally Adjusted) 2007 – September 2017


Annualized Employment GrowthDallas-Fort Worth-Arlington(Seasonally Adjusted) 2007 – September 2017


Annualized Employment GrowthAustin-Round Rock vs. San Antonio-NB(Seasonally Adjusted) 2007 – September 2017


Indexed Employment Growth(Seasonally Adjusted) 2007 – Sep 2017, Downturn = 100


Strong Annual Employment Growth(Not Seasonally Adjusted) Metros with 1 million+, Sep 2017

Rank Metro %

1 Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX 2.7

2 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 2.6

2 Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA 2.6

4 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA 2.5

4 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 2.5

6 Columbus, OH 2.4

6 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA 2.4

8 Austin-Round Rock, TX 2.3

8 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN 2.3

8 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA 2.3

12 San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX 2.242 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX 0.7


Texas Dominates Large Metro GrowthIHS Employment Growth Projections, Metros over 1 million2017-2022 Average Annual Growth Rate

Rank Metro %1 Austin, TX 2.5%2 Las Vegas, NV 2.4%3 Orlando, FL 2.2%4 Phoenix, AZ 2.1%5 Raleigh, NC 2.0%6 Houston, TX 2.0%7 Nashville, TN 1.9%8 Salt Lake City, UT 1.9%9 Dallas-Fort Worth, TX 1.9%

10 Denver, CO 1.8%11 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA 1.8%12 Charlotte, NC-SC 1.7%13 San Antonio, TX 1.7%14 Tampa, FL 1.6%15 Jacksonville, FL 1.6%


Annual Job Growth and U-Rates for Texas Metros(Not Seasonally Adjusted), Sep 2017

Rank Metropolitan Area Annual Job Growth Rate

Unemployment Rate

1 College Station-Bryan 3.4% 2.9%2 Corpus Christi 2.9% 5.8%3 Dallas-Plano-Irving 2.7% 3.4%3 El Paso 2.7% 4.2%3 Midland 2.7% 2.8%6 Fort Worth-Arlington 2.6% 3.4%7 Austin-Round Rock 2.3% 2.9%8 San Antonio-New Braunfels 2.2% 3.2%9 Odessa 2.0% 3.7%

10 Killeen-Temple 1.9% 3.8%11 Sherman-Denison 1.7% 3.2%11 Tyler 1.7% 3.8%13 Laredo 1.5% 3.6%14 Lubbock 1.4% 2.9%15 McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 1.2% 6.9%16 Amarillo 1.1% 2.7%17 Brownsville-Harlingen 0.9% 6.4%18 Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land 0.7% 4.8%18 Wichita Falls 0.7% 3.4%


Drilling downINDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT


Top Industry by Employment 1990


Top Industry by Employment 2017


Texas Industry Employment(Seasonally Adjusted) September 2017

INDUSTRY SECTOR Sep 2017* Monthly Change Yearly Change

Professional And Business Services 1,680,800 5,900 41,700Manufacturing 878,200 200 37,200Mining And Logging 248,400 4,900 34,200Health Care And Social Assistance 1,478,500 -5,800 31,900Financial Activities 762,300 5,000 26,300Government 1,960,100 900 25,800Local Government 1,345,100 -100 18,400Trans., Warehousing, & Utilities 543,200 1,000 17,600Other Services 446,500 3,800 16,700Construction 715,400 4,100 14,300Leisure And Hospitality 1,309,200 -21,300 12,800Wholesale Trade 592,700 2,200 12,300Educational Services 203,800 -200 6,600State Government 414,200 700 5,700Federal Government 200,800 300 1,700Retail Trade 1,311,600 -6,500 -9,400Information 190,400 -1,500 -11,900


Annual Growth RatesSeasonally Adjusted, September 2017


Texas Retail Trade EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted, September 2017


Annual Growth RatesNot Seasonally Adjusted, September 2017


Texas Manufacturing EmploymentSeasonally Adjusted, Index 1990 = 100, September 2017


US Manufacturing Productivity & OutputSeasonally Adjusted, Index 2009 = 100


Cost of Commodities vs.Price of All Goods and Services in the EconomyNot Seasonally Adjusted, Index 1990 = 100, September 2017


Texas Mining and Logging Employment (Seasonally Adjusted), Monthly Growth


WTI vs. Texas Rig Counts


Major BasinsRig Counts, October 2017


OccupationalProjections


Employment Change by Industry SectorTexas: 2014-2024


Occupations Adding the Most JobsTexas: 2014-2024


Fastest Growing OccupationsTexas: 2014-2024

*Fastest growing occupations with employment greater than or equal to 2,500 in 2014


Largest Postsecondary Non-Degree OccupationsTexas: 2014-2024


Largest Associate’s Degree OccupationsTexas: 2014-2024


Largest Bachelor’s Degree OccupationsTexas: 2014-2024


2016 Texas Wageso Average: $47,767

o Entry: $20,112

o Experienced: $61,594


Job Postings


Where the Job Postings Are Now: OctoberMetro AreaTa Postings OTM

Change Metro Area Postings OTM Change

DFW 112,576 0.0% College Station-Bryan 3,052 6.1%Houston 67,691 6.2% Odessa 2,636 -3.9%Austin-Round Rock 40,269 -0.2% Midland 2,600 0.1%San Antonio-NB 29,730 0.1% Amarillo 2,517 -0.2%El Paso 6,299 -1.4% Tyler 2,287 7.4%Corpus Christi 4,666 9.9% Brownsville-Harlingen 2,232 5.4%McAllen-Edinburg 4,115 2.3% Longview 1,925 11.3%Killeen-Temple 3,969 3.9% Abilene 1,714 9.3%Lubbock 3,907 7.8% Laredo 1,655 3.0%Beaumont-PA 3,752 15.2% San Angelo 1,372 -1.8%Waco 3,196 -2.1% Wichita Falls 1,213 -0.2%


Industries Hiring in the TexasIndustry Postings

Temporary Help Services 10,015

Employment Placement Agencies 9,410

General Medical and Surgical Hospitals 8,281

Hotels (except Casino Hotels) and Motels 5,054

Elementary and Secondary Schools 4,919

Colleges, Universities, and Professional Schools 4,881

All Other Miscellaneous Ambulatory Health Care Services 4,701

Administrative Management and General Management Consulting Svc 4,399

Offices of Physicians (except Mental Health Specialists) 4,205

Commercial Banking 3,693


Help Wanted Job Listings in TexasJob Type OTM Change Postings

Registered Nurses ↓ 15,327 Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers ↓ 11,991 Retail Salespersons ↓ 8,632 Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers ↓ 8,409 Software Developers, Applications ↑ 6,894 Customer Service Representatives ↓ 6,330 Maintenance and Repair Workers, General ↑ 5,665 Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers ↑ 5,402 Computer User Support Specialists ↓ 4,919 Supervisors of Food Preparation and Serving Workers ↓ 4,905 Computer Systems Analysts ↓ 4,590 Web Developers ↓ 4,306 Accountants ↑ 4,282 Network and Computer Systems Administrators ↓ 4,276 Management Analysts ↓ 3,608


Top EmployersTexas


Skills


What Employers Want1. Specific Skills2. Educational Attainment3. Relevant Work Experience4. Soft Skills and Social Competency


Rick Stephens, Boeing Corp“There’s not one specific thing or skill people have to have to work for us. But I can tell you why we fire people: soft skills. We hire for hard skills. We fire for soft skills.”

– Interviewed by TWC


“Certificates” Most in DemandTexas


“Hard Skills” Most in DemandTexas


“Soft Skills” Most in DemandTexas


Education Matters!


Labor Market Reality


More Education = Better Labor Market OutcomesU.S. Earnings and U-Rates by educational attainment, 2016

Note: Data are for persons age 25 and over. Earnings are for full-time wage and salary workers Q4-2016 Averages.Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey


Changing Demographics


Median Earnings by EducationTexas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2011-2015 American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimates


Poverty Rate by Level of EducationTexas



Educational Attainment by RaceTexas



Projected Population Growth by RaceTexas, 2010-2050

Source: Texas Demographer, 0.5 Scenario


Metro Areas with Largest Population Gain15 Largest Numeric Increases Between 2015 and 2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and Population Estimates Program, 2015 Estimates


Fastest-Growing Cities AreDeep in the Heart of Texas15 Fastest-Growing Cities and Towns Between 2015 and 2016

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey and Population Estimates Program, 2015 Estimates


Contact InformationCareer Information Hotline

1-800-822-PLAN (7526)

Labor Market Information Hotline: 1-866-938-4444

General Information Line: (512) 936-3200

Email [email protected]

www.lmci.state.tx.us

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/


THANK YOU!

Phil Arnold & Mariana VegaLabor Market Economists

512-936-3153

[email protected]

www.lmci.state.tx.us

59

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.lmci.state.tx.us/

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