central texas education trends
DESCRIPTION
E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperityTRANSCRIPT
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Education Trends
Raise Your Hand Texas Community Leadership in Education Forum
October 22, 2013
Susan Dawson www.e3alliance.org Twitter: #E3Alliance
© 2013 E3 Alliance
E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education
systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity
Mission
E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas
© 2013 E3 Alliance
157 Students
157 Students
© 2013 E3 Alliance
314 Students
© 2013 E3 Alliance
157 Students
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120? Students
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Overall, too few students Graduate high school Go to college, and Get a post-secondary degree
To meet the needs of our region in a globally competitive economy
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Without Systemic Change, Attainment Will Drop
19%
29% 29%
18%
7%
30% 29%
24%
13%
4% 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
No HS Diploma HS Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree
Grad/Prof Degree
Perc
ent o
f Pop
ulat
ion
Projected % of Texas Population Ages 18 to 65 by Education Outcomes
2000 2040 7
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Economic Benefits to Region and State are Huge!
Benefits of “Closing the Gaps” to college”: • Cumulative Additional Output = $1.897 trillion
by 2030 • Over 1,000,000 new jobs for the State • Central Texas MSA:
$41B in increased spending $9.7B increase in personal income 85,250 permanent new jobs
Source: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by the Perryman Group, 2007
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Demographic and Education Trends and
Outcomes
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Pop Quiz: Population Changes The Central Texas Low Income student population is growing at about _____ the rate of the overall student population in Texas.
A: the same B: twice C: 4 1/2 times D: a gazillion times
© 2013 E3 Alliance Source: E3 Alliance analysis of district-level AEIS and United States Census data
Answer is C: Low Income Students are Growing at 4 ½ X the Rate of all Texas Students
105%
90%
80%
39%
20%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
CTX ELL
CTX Low Income
CTX Hispanic
Central Texas
Texas
Population Growth From 2002 to 2012
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago…
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…And District Income Levels Last Year
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Almost 1 in 3 Central Texas Children Born to Mothers without HS Diplomas
Source: United Way Capital Area Success by 6, 2009 Indicator Report
28% Central Texas
Overall
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Poverty Areas Lack Accredited ECE Centers
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Ready, 50%
Not Ready, 50%
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Ready, Set, K! Weighted Data
Just Over Half of Central Texas Students Are Ready to Succeed in School
Ready 53%
Not Ready 47%
Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2012
© 2013 E3 Alliance
TAKS Passing Rate Achievement Gaps Closing
8th Grade Reading TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11
8th Grade Math TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11
Source: E3 Alliance Analysis of TEA Data
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percen
tage W
ho M
et M
inim
um Stand
ard
Test Year
Hispanic African American White Low Income
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percen
tage W
ho M
et M
inim
um Stand
ard
Test Year
Hispanic African American White Low Income
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Gaps in TAKS Scale Scores Persist 8th Grade Reading TAKS Scale Scores,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11 8th Grade Math TAKS Scale Scores,
Central Texas Districts 2003-11
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Average TAKS Score
Test Year
Hispanic African American White Low Income
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2600
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Average TAKS Score
Test Year
Hispanic African American White Low Income
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TAKS data
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is :
A: JPMorgan Chase “London whale” trading fines B: The annual cost of deer crashes in Pennsylvania C: The total investment in the Long Center for Performing Arts D: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department
© 2013 E3 Alliance
A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is:
Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost over $400M each year.
Answer B. is correct
$450 million
We could buy FIVE Long Centers for each class year of drop outs!
or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments.
© 2013 E3 Alliance
One in Four Central Texas Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School
27%
35%
40%
47%
58%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of High School Graduates
High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005
Enrolled Within 1 year
Persisted into 2nd Year
Persisted into 3rd Year*
Persisted into 4th Year**
Completed Within 6 Years
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center
of 12,561 HS Graduates
21
© 2013 E3 Alliance
One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School
10%
37%
16%
45%
20%
51%
27%
58%
39%
68%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Low
Inco
me
Not
Low
Inco
me
Percentage of High School Graduates
High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005
Enrolled Within 1 year
Persisted into 2nd Year
Persisted into 3rd Year*
Persisted into 4th Year**
Completed Within 6 Years
Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center 22
© 2013 E3 Alliance
Unemployment Rates Map to Educational Attainment
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Une
mpl
oym
ent R
ate
US Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment
Less than High School Degree High School Degree Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or higher
Source: U.S. Department of Labor
© 2013 E3 Alliance
What’s the Problem? • Institutions are disconnected horizontally & vertically • Great teachers are key – but not well paid, not
incented to perform, not staying in the field • Data often doesn’t exist to understand where the true
leverage points and bottlenecks are • Culture & bureaucracy averse to change • Adult culture of learning is weak • As the student population is increasing and becoming
harder to serve, we have decreased funding • Lots of great things happening – but disconnected,
inconsistent, competing for funds