central texas education trends

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© 2013 E 3 Alliance Central Texas Education Trends Raise Your Hand Texas Community Leadership in Education Forum October 22, 2013 Susan Dawson www.e3alliance.org Twitter: #E3Alliance

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E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity

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Page 1: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Education Trends

Raise Your Hand Texas Community Leadership in Education Forum

October 22, 2013

Susan Dawson www.e3alliance.org Twitter: #E3Alliance

Page 2: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education

systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity

Mission

E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas

Page 3: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

157 Students

157 Students

Page 4: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

314 Students

Page 5: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

157 Students

X

X

X X

X

X

X X

X X

X X

X

X X

X

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X

X

X

X

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X ?

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?

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120? Students

Page 6: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Overall, too few students   Graduate high school   Go to college, and   Get a post-secondary degree

To meet the needs of our region in a globally competitive economy

Page 7: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Without Systemic Change, Attainment Will Drop

19%

29% 29%

18%

7%

30% 29%

24%

13%

4% 0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

No HS Diploma HS Graduate Some College Bachelor's Degree

Grad/Prof Degree

Perc

ent o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Projected % of Texas Population Ages 18 to 65 by Education Outcomes

2000 2040 7

Page 8: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Economic Benefits to Region and State are Huge!

Benefits of “Closing the Gaps” to college”: •  Cumulative Additional Output = $1.897 trillion

by 2030 •  Over 1,000,000 new jobs for the State •  Central Texas MSA:

  $41B in increased spending   $9.7B increase in personal income   85,250 permanent new jobs

Source: A Tale of Two States and One Million Jobs by the Perryman Group, 2007

Page 9: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Demographic and Education Trends and

Outcomes

Page 10: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Pop Quiz: Population Changes The Central Texas Low Income student population is growing at about _____ the rate of the overall student population in Texas.

A: the same B: twice C: 4 1/2 times D: a gazillion times

Page 11: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance Source: E3 Alliance analysis of district-level AEIS and United States Census data

Answer is C: Low Income Students are Growing at 4 ½ X the Rate of all Texas Students

105%

90%

80%

39%

20%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

CTX ELL

CTX Low Income

CTX Hispanic

Central Texas

Texas

Population Growth From 2002 to 2012

Page 12: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago…

Page 13: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

…And District Income Levels Last Year

Page 14: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Almost 1 in 3 Central Texas Children Born to Mothers without HS Diplomas

Source: United Way Capital Area Success by 6, 2009 Indicator Report

28% Central Texas

Overall

Page 15: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Poverty Areas Lack Accredited ECE Centers

Page 16: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Ready, 50%

Not Ready, 50%

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Ready, Set, K! Weighted Data

Just Over Half of Central Texas Students Are Ready to Succeed in School

Ready 53%

Not Ready 47%

Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2012

Page 17: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

TAKS Passing Rate Achievement Gaps Closing

8th Grade Reading TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11

8th Grade Math TAKS Passing Rates, Central Texas Districts 2003-11

Source: E3 Alliance Analysis of TEA Data

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Percen

tage  W

ho  M

et  M

inim

um  Stand

ard  

Test  Year  

Hispanic   African  American   White   Low  Income  

0%  

20%  

40%  

60%  

80%  

100%  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Percen

tage  W

ho  M

et  M

inim

um  Stand

ard  

Test  Year  

Hispanic   African  American   White   Low  Income  

Page 18: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Gaps in TAKS Scale Scores Persist 8th Grade Reading TAKS Scale Scores,

Central Texas Districts 2003-11 8th Grade Math TAKS Scale Scores,

Central Texas Districts 2003-11

1800  

1900  

2000  

2100  

2200  

2300  

2400  

2500  

2600  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Average  TAKS  Score  

Test  Year  

Hispanic   African  American   White   Low  Income  

1800  

1900  

2000  

2100  

2200  

2300  

2400  

2500  

2600  

2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011  

Average  TAKS  Score  

Test  Year  

Hispanic   African  American   White   Low  Income  

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of TAKS data

Page 19: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is :

A: JPMorgan Chase “London whale” trading fines B: The annual cost of deer crashes in Pennsylvania C: The total investment in the Long Center for Performing Arts D: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department

Page 20: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is:

Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost over $400M each year.

Answer B. is correct

$450 million

We could buy FIVE Long Centers for each class year of drop outs!

or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments.

Page 21: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

One in Four Central Texas Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School

27%

35%

40%

47%

58%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Percentage of High School Graduates

High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005

Enrolled Within 1 year

Persisted into 2nd Year

Persisted into 3rd Year*

Persisted into 4th Year**

Completed Within 6 Years

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

of 12,561 HS Graduates

21

Page 22: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

One in Ten Low Income Graduates Complete College Within 6 Years of Finishing High School

10%

37%

16%

45%

20%

51%

27%

58%

39%

68%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Low

Inco

me

Not

Low

Inco

me

Percentage of High School Graduates

High School Graduates at 2-or 4-Year Higher Education Institutions in Texas, Central Texas Class of 2005

Enrolled Within 1 year

Persisted into 2nd Year

Persisted into 3rd Year*

Persisted into 4th Year**

Completed Within 6 Years

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center 22

Page 23: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

Unemployment Rates Map to Educational Attainment

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Une

mpl

oym

ent R

ate

US Unemployment Rate by Educational Attainment

Less than High School Degree High School Degree Some College or Associate's Degree Bachelor's Degree or higher

Source: U.S. Department of Labor

Page 24: Central Texas Education Trends

© 2013 E3 Alliance

What’s the Problem? •  Institutions are disconnected horizontally & vertically •  Great teachers are key – but not well paid, not

incented to perform, not staying in the field •  Data often doesn’t exist to understand where the true

leverage points and bottlenecks are •  Culture & bureaucracy averse to change •  Adult culture of learning is weak •  As the student population is increasing and becoming

harder to serve, we have decreased funding •  Lots of great things happening – but disconnected,

inconsistent, competing for funds