7/31/2015 KyrgyzstanQuarrelsWiththeUnitedStates,Again|Stratfor

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Kyrgyzstan Quarrels With the United States, AgainAnalysis JULY30,2015|09:15GMT Print TextSize

SummaryKyrgyzstanandtheUnitedStatesareonceagaininvolvedinatensediplomaticdispute.ThistimeitconcernsahumanrightsawardtheU.S.StateDepartmentgrantedtoAzimzhanAskarov,aKyrgyznationalandhumanrightsactivistservingajailterminthecountry.KyrgyzandU.S.diplomatsmetinBishkekonJuly29,but

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KyrgyzPresidentAlmazbekAtambayevgivesaspeechinthecapitalofBishkek.(VYACHESLAVOSELEDKO/AFP/GettyImages)

7/31/2015 KyrgyzstanQuarrelsWiththeUnitedStates,Again|Stratfor

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Kyrgyzstanhadalreadyrenouncedacooperationagreementbetweenthetwocountries.TheKyrgyzgovernmentisclearlyconcernedthatitsstrongtieswithRussiainthecontextofMoscow'sbroaderstandoffwiththeWestputsitatriskofU.S.retaliation.Moreover,Bishkekfearsthecountry'shistoryofpoliticalinstability,alongwithgrowingeconomicproblemsandimportantelectionsinOctober,couldthreatenthegovernment'sposition.

AnalysisThediplomaticdisputehasbeenbrewingsincetheUnitedStatesannouncedJuly14thatitwouldgranttheHumanRightsDefenderAward,anannualhonorgivenbytheStateDepartmentforhumanrightsactivistsaroundtheworld,toAzimzhanAskarov,alongwiththeVenezuelannongovernmentalorganizationForoPenal.Inanofficialpressrelease,theStateDepartmentapplaudedAskarov'seffortsto"monitorpolicebrutality"andtouncover"abusethatresultedinprosecutionsofofficials"duringethnicriotsinsouthernKyrgyzstaninJune2010.TheKyrgyzgovernmentimmediatelyspokeoutagainstthedecision,referringtoAskarovasacriminalwho"incitedethnichatred"andstatingthathewasfairlyconvictedbycourtsforcrimesoforganizingmassunrestandcomplicityinthemurderofalawenforcementofficial.

Becauseofthedispute,theKyrgyzgovernmentrenouncedacooperationagreementwiththeUnitedStates,knownastheBilateralAgreement,onJuly22.Signedin1993,theagreementprovidescertainU.S.organizationsthatoperatedinKyrgyzstan,suchastheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopment,withtaxandcustomsprivileges,whilealsograntingU.S.nationalsinvolvedinaidprojectswithstatusandimmunityequaltothatofdiplomats.WashingtonwarnedBishkekthatthedecisioncouldforceittowithdrawitsfinancialassistance,thoughU.S.officialssubsequentlysaidthatnosuchactionswouldbeimmediatelytaken.Nevertheless,theKyrgyzgovernmentsaidtheBilateralAgreementwouldnolongerbevalidbetweenthetwocountriesasofAug.20,andonJuly27KyrgyzPresidentAlmazbekAtambayevblamedtheUnitedStatesforcreating"controlledchaos"inKyrgyzstanandpurposefullyunderminingthestabilityofthecountry.

ThisisnotthefirstdiplomaticdisputebetweenKyrgyzstanandtheUnitedStates.TensionaroseperiodicallybetweenthetwocountriesovertheManasairbase,akeylogisticalmilitaryfacilityKyrgyzstangrantedaccesstotheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesfortheirmilitaryoperationsagainsttheTalibaninAfghanistan.TheKyrgyzgovernment,bothunderthecountry'sfirstpostSovietPresidentAskarAkayevandhissuccessorKurmanbekBakiyev,frequentlythreatenedtoclosethebase,onlytoretractaftertheUnitedStatesagreedtopaymoretorentit.However,diplomatictensionpeakedwhenPresidentAtambayevformallydiscontinuedtheU.S.leaseofthebaseinJune2014,despiteU.S.requeststomaintainitspresence.

The Broader Standoff

SuchactionscanbeviewedinthecontextofthecompetitionbetweentheUnitedStatesandRussiaovertheformerSovietperiphery,includingCentralAsia.KyrgyzstanhaslongbeenacontestedareaofinfluencebetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStatesitistheonlycountryintheworldtohavehostedbothaRussianandaU.S.militarybaseonitsterritory(withRussia'sKantairbaselocatedjust50kilometers,or30miles,fromManas).KyrgyzstanwasalsopartofthewaveofWesternsupported"colorrevolutions"intheformerSovietUnion,withthesocalledTulipRevolutionof2005overthrowingAkayev.RussiasubsequentlysupportedarevolutionagainstAkayev'ssuccessor,Bakiyev,in2010,makingKyrgyzstanoneofthemostpoliticallyvolatileandgeopoliticallycontestedcountriesintheformerSovietspace.

However,sincetheApril2010revolutionandtheethnicriotsthatfollowedinsouthernKyrgyzstantwomonths

7/31/2015 KyrgyzstanQuarrelsWiththeUnitedStates,Again|Stratfor

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later,afterwhichMoscowbeefedupitssecuritypresenceinthecountry,theKyrgyzgovernmenthasfirmlybeenentrenchedintheRussiancamp.Kyrgyzstan'sofficialclosureoftheManasairbasejustafewmonthsaftertheEuromaidanmovementinUkrainewasseenasevidenceofthisrelationship.KyrgyzstanintegratedwithRussiaintheeconomicandsecurityrealmsaswell,servingasamemberofRussia'sEurasianEconomicUnion,whichwasfinalizedinMay2015,andRussia'sCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganizationmilitaryalliance.

WhiletheseactionshaveearnedtheKyrgyzgovernmentpoliticalbackingandfinancialsupportfromRussia,theyhave

converselycreatedmorefrictionbetweenBishkekandWashington.KyrgyzstansreactiontotheU.S.decisiontograntthehumanrightsawardisonlythemostrecentdevelopmentofextensivediplomatictensionbetweenthetwocountries.AndthoughtheUnitedStatesmaynotexplicitlyintendthemovetounderminetheKyrgyzgovernment,AtambayevandotherKyrgyzofficialsarepubliclysignalingthattheyseeitthatway.BecauseofKyrgyzstan'shistoryofpoliticalvolatilityinfluencedbyoutsidepowersanditsclosetieswithRussia,Bishkekcannotbecertainthatsuchactionsarenotintendedtodestabilizethecountry.

AtambayevhassofarbeenmoreeffectiveinmaintainingorderamongKyrgyzstan'sclansandcompetingpoliticalfactionsthanhispredecessors.AweakeningeconomyandupcomingparliamentaryelectionsinOctober,however,areconcernsinanalreadyunstableenvironment.LikeRussia,KyrgyzstanoftenviewsU.S.effortstosupportprodemocracyandhumanrightsgroupsasacoverforunderminingthegovernment,particularlywhileBishkekgrowsclosertoMoscow.ItisasensitivetimeforBishkektosqueezecertainU.S.operations,asdomesticinstabilityandgeopoliticalcompetitionarerecurringfeaturesforKyrgyzstan.

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