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S t r at e g i c F o r e c a s t i n g , I n c .Stratfor is the world’s leading private intelligence firm providing corporations, governments and individuals with intelligence and analysis to anticipate the political, economic, and security issues vital to their interests. Armed with powerful intelligence-gathering capabilities and working in close collaboration with Stratfor’s experienced team of professionals, our clients are better able to protect their assets, diminish risk, and increase opportunities to compete in the global market.

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ii© 2005 Strategic Forecasting, Inc.

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A b o u t S t r at f or . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . i i i

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E x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 T h e M o n t h i n R e v i e w . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 K e y I s s u e s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 F o r e c a s t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 E c o n o m i c F o c u s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1 S e c u r i t y F o c u s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 4 N o t e w o r t h y E v e n t s . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 6

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Stratfor is the world’s leading private intelligence firm providing corporations, governments and individuals with geopolitical intelligence and analysis to manage risk and anticipate the political, economic and security issues vital to their interests. Armed with powerful intelligence-gathering capabilities and working in close collaboration with Stratfor’s expert team of analysts, clients are better able to protect their assets, diminish risk, compete in the global market and increase opportunities. Stratfor has an unparalleled record for accuracy and clarity in its forecasts and has been called “the Shadow CIA” by Barron’s.

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s the long election season heats up in Latin America, politics is moving to the forefront of the agenda in several countries in the region, most prominently in the short term in Bolivia, where the scheduled Dec. 18 presidential election will test the national appeal of indigenous leader Evo Morales. Early in November, eyes will be on

Argentina and the Organization of American States Summit of the Americas, where U.S. President George W. Bush and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez will come face to face amid increasing U.S.-Venezuelan tensions.

T h i s M o n t h ’ s H i g h l i g h t s : I n E v e r y I s s u e : • Kirchner’s Mandate • Economic Focus • Falling Chavez Popularity • Security Focus • Gutierrez’s Return to Ecuador • Noteworthy Events • Uribe Cleared for Candidacy • November Forecast

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oE x e c u t i v e S u m m a r y

ctober, like September, saw rising political and social instability in Latin America. Central America’s most pressing problems relate to the recovery from hurricane season, which is not yet over. Energy issues still exacerbate the problem, but the immediate need is to rebuild. The northern Andes still faces relentless political

uncertainty, and Venezuela remains on a path to increase its regional power.

Political strife dominated regional issues in October, as Stratfor predicted. Bolivia, however, saved itself from crisis in the short term by putting the presidential election back on the calendar, this time for Dec. 18. Ecuador and Peru saw the return of former presidents who want to recapture power, while Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, seeing his poll numbers slide, reacted with heightened anti-American rhetoric.

Some leaders fared better. Argentine President Nestor Kirchner had a relatively positive month. Despite the persistent corruption charges that plague his Workers’ Party, Kirchner’s wife won the important legislative seat for Buenos Aires -- giving him a political boost. Colombia faced renewed pressure from the United States over paramilitary groups, but President Alvaro Uribe Velez was able to alter constitutional laws that will allow him to run for office again.

The United States will display more sensitivity toward Latin American issues, starting early in November at the Summit of the Americas in Argentina. President George W. Bush, however, will make no new promises to the region, such as free trade agreements, because the situation in the United States remains tenuous for him. Free trade deals already in the works with Colombia, Ecuador and Peru remain unsigned and negotiations incomplete, although a resolution to the issue should come in November.

Latin America, however, has more important issues to worry about as it progresses into the long election season. The elections will increase tensions in Peru and Bolivia. November and December will set the stage for 2006 -- and demonstrate which countries will be able to hang on to stability.


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T h e M o n t h i n R e v i e w

K i r c h n e r ’ s M a n d a t eArgentina’s Oct. 23 legislative elections finally gave President Nestor Kirchner the mandate he was hoping for. In 2003, Kirchner won the presidency based on a first-round take of 22 percent of the vote when his run-off opponent, former President Carlos Menem, dropped out of the second round after polls showed that he would lose to Kirchner in a landslide.

With the latest election results in, Kirchner has established himself as the country’s dominant political figure. More important, he has won the authority to declare himself the head of the Justicialist Party, the successor to the Peronist Party that continues to dominate Argentine politics. Kirchner’s lack of a majority in both houses of Congress will require him to make deals with legislators outside his own party, but he still will largely have his way as he gears up for presidential elections in 2007.

F a l l i n g C h a v e z P o p u l a r i t yA recent series of polls in Venezuela show that President Hugo Chavez’s popularity has fallen by 10 to 12 points since July. The main reason for the drop appears to be the sudden acceleration in expropriations of private property and moves to implement a Cuban-style socialist model in the country. Another significant -- and accurate -- complaint is that the government has become increasingly corrupt and inefficient under Chavez.

Most numbers show that Chavez’s popularity remains in the mid-50s, but most startling for him is that he is losing support among his core supporters, the Chavistas. The polls show that the Chavistas are beginning to shift to undecided postions with respect to Chavez’s re-election, Chavez is not in any immediate danger, and with nationwide legislative elections scheduled for December, and presidential elections due in December 2006, Chavez may re-evaluate his plans -- and likely slow the pace of the Bolivarian Revolution in the months ahead. He will not, however, alter the course of the revolution, as its purpose is to model Venezuela after Fidel Castro’s Cuba.

With the results of recent legislative elections, Kirchner has established himself as Argentina’s dominant political figure.

Polls show that Chavez is losing support among his core supporters, the Chavistas, although he is not in immediate danger.


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G u t i e r r e z ’ s R e t u r n t o E c u a d o r Ousted Ecuadorian President Lucio Gutierrez returned to Ecuador from Colombia on Oct. 15 -- and was promptly arrested by Ecuadorian authorities. Gutierrez, who was driven from office in April by a congressional vote motivated by mass protests, faces charges of undermining Ecuadorian national security while in office. Gutierrez says he is innocent and has proof that the current government of Interim President Alfredo Palacio is engaging in illegal and corrupt uses of state funds. In an indication of his ability to quickly motivate supporters, he managed to film a statement for the media and smuggle it out of his cell in a maximum-security prison. Gutierrez is having a polarizing effect on the country’s political scene -- which lacks a strong president or even dominant political figures -- as players prepare to choose whether to support or oppose him. Unlike other Ecuadorian political leaders, Gutierrez retains a solid core of supporters, many of whom are planning demonstrations to demand his release and call for new elections. Though Gutierrez lacks broad political support on a national basis, he still can cause considerable trouble for Palacio -- even from his jail cell -- which will only compound Ecuador’s existing political instability.

U r i b e C l e a r e d f o r C a n d i d a c yColombia’s Constitutional Court on Oct. 19 upheld a law permitting presidential re-election for a second term, making another four-year term for President Alvaro Uribe Velez a virtual certainty in elections scheduled for May 2006. Uribe’s approval ratings have been at or around 70 percent for much of his term in office, as his aggressive policies with regard to the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and his disarmament negotiations with the paramilitary United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) have significantly improved the security situation in Colombia.

Another four years of Uribe will mean the continuation of these policies. A final peace deal with the AUC is likely by the end of 2005 and the Plan Patriot offensive against FARC will continue. As Uribe is Washington’s only

The recent return of Gutierrez is having a polarizing effect on Ecuador’s political scene.

The decision by Colombia’s Constitutional Court to allow Uribe to run again almost guarantees a second term for the popular president.


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remaining reliable ally in South America, military aid to the country likely will grow in 2006, when Plan Colombia comes up for renewal. Although Uribe is in an ideal position for re-election, he likely will have to contend with increased efforts by the FARC to assassinate him during his campaign, as well as efforts to pull off spectacular attacks to discredit the president’s aggressive security policies.

K e y I s s u e s

T h e A n d e a n P o w e r Va c u u mThe northern Andes continues to be an unstable and vulnerable region. The ongoing political troubles facing Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador and -- to a lesser extent -- Colombia have given Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez the opportunity to undermine the precarious regional status quo. On Oct. 2, Ecuador’s El Comercio newspaper reported that left-wing groups from the region recently trained in Venezuela. The report claims that guerrillas from Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Argentina and the Dominican Republic participated in a four-week training course in and around Venezuelan military installations. Venezuela’s military and government refuted the story, claiming it was another rumor created by the United States. Given Chavez’s desire to increase his regional power, however, the training is not surprising.

Chavez’s goal is to spread his Bolivarian Revolution throughout the region -- and that requires that he gain sufficient influence over neighboring countries’ governments. He sees training leftist groups in political and, if necessary, military tactics as a part of that broader strategy. The current political instability in Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador makes these countries the most vulnerable to Chavez’s influence. Among the issues facing regional leaders is increasing political activism among indigenous populations and leftist groups. Indigenous and labor groups have held an increasing numbers of strikes, protests and violent uprisings over the past few months. The economic uncertainty generated by political tensions has contributed to the instability, a combination that provides Chavez with fertile ground to try to influence political outcomes in the northern Andes.

Venezuela denied a report that guerrillas from Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Colombia, Chile, Argentina and the Dominican Republic trained in the country.


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F u j i m o r i ’ s Vo w t o R e t u r nFormer Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori announced his intention to run in the April 2006 presidential election, despite the fact that he has lived in exile in Japan since 2000 and faces arrest and trial for corruption and human rights abuses in Peru. Although Peru’s Supreme Court cleared him of one count of illegal arms trafficking Oct. 18, Fujimori remains under indictment. Polls put Fujimori’s support between 11 percent and 20 percent, and the most recent polls show him trailing conservative candidate Lourdes Flores Nano by up to 16 points. Still, Nano and the other declared presidential candidates are not compelling political figures, leaving Fujimori as the most recognizable potential candidate. This alone could help him close this gap.

The key to Fujimori’s return is overcoming a law that forbids him from seeking office until 2010 if he is convicted of a crime. He will contest the law, but likely will remain in Tokyo for the time being -- running for office via the Internet. He claims that he will return to Peru by April. Fujimori hopes that followers of his Si Cumple party and those of the two other parties he formed will select him as their candidate by December, which appears likely.

T h e H a r s h H u r r i c a n e S e a s o nDevastation caused by recent hurricanes in Mexico and Central America has the governments of the affected areas scrambling to redirect funds to repair damage. Despite these efforts, areas of the region will take months and years to recover. First, Hurricane Wilma ravaged Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, particularly the profitable tourist centers of the Mayan Riviera -- Cancun, Cozumel and Playa del Carmen -- which contribute up to one-third of Mexico’s tourist revenues (about $11 billion per year).

Wilma struck just before the height of tourist season and caused up to $1 billion in damage in Cancun alone. Officials believe the area will not recover until February, perhaps in time to receive Spring Break vacationers, although it definitely will lose out on revenue from the important Christmas season. Estimates predict that the region will lose up to $800 million in profits by December. The Mexican government has asked for assistance from the World Bank.

Fujimori has vowed to return to Peru to seek the presidency, but likely will stay put in Japan for the time being.


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Hurricane Stan caused widespread damage in Guatemala, El Salvador and the Mexican state of Chiapas in early October. Rains caused widespread flooding and mudslides in Guatemala, where at least 654 people died. As a result of the hurricane, El Salvador halted projects to improve water quality, rebuild highways and provide money for home reconstruction, and instead will allocate the funds to unblocking sewage systems, reconstructing roads and repairing flood-damaged areas. The expense of the recovery efforts will compound the political and economic problems Central American governments already face in having to deal with persistently high energy prices.

Devastation caused by hurricanes in Mexico and Central America will leave parts of the region reeling for years.


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F o r e c a s t

H i g h l i g h t s : • Summit of the Americas • Free Trade Negotiations • Bolivian Elections

S u m m i t o f t h e A m e r i c a s U.S. President George W. Bush will meet Nov. 4-5 with the 34 leaders of Organization of American States nations in Mar del Plata, Argentina. Although job creation, the eradication of poverty and the strengthening of democratic governance are the main focus of the Summit of the Americas, the real story is Bush’s appearance. The summit will test the limits of U.S.-Latin American friendships and prove to be a difficult visit for Bush, who will face a barrage of criticism and protests. Argentina saw a rise in the number of American businesses targeted by vandals in October, which could be a sign of increasing anti-American sentiment. The political fallout from recent events in the United States, including the federal government’s response to Hurricane Katrina, the Plame-CIA scandal and the failed Miers nomination to the Supreme Court, will accompany Bush to the summit. He must not only contend with troubles at home, but will face opposition to Washington’s agenda of expanding free trade and security cooperation, and containing the influence of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The United States is unpopular in the region, and most leaders therefore will want to appear independent from Washington’s influence.

The main attraction will be Chavez’s appearance alongside Bush. Some expect a standoff between the two, but Bush most likely will avoid Chavez or simply exchange pleasantries. Chavez likely will offer up more conciliatory words than usual for Washington during the summit, as he is not yet prepared for an all-out confrontation -- and directly confronting Bush would bring that confrontation closer. Chavez can be expected to appear statesmanlike in an effort to cast himself as the region’s leader.

The presence of Bush and Chavez at the Summit of the Americas will be one of the Organization of American States event’s main a�ractions


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Bush will support summit initiatives, but his presence will indicate Washington’s recognition of the need to reverse the decline in U.S. standing in the region. He likely will try to portray Washington as more sensitive to regional concerns while speaking to certain leaders on the sidelines about their help in increasing security in the region and the need to contain Chavez. Still, as he unlikely will bring anything new to the table on key issues such as free trade or immigration, Bush will make little progress in furthering Washington’s moribund Latin America agenda until at least after the New Year.

F r e e T r a d e N e g o t i a t i o n sColombia, Peru and Ecuador are negotiating a free trade agreement (FTA) with the United States. Stratfor expected the treaties to be signed by the end of October, but recent events in Latin America and the United States caused


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the effort to be postponed. Facing increasing resistance to the FTA at home, Ecuador’s weak interim president, Alfredo Palacio, recently announced that he and the presidents of Colombia and Peru will ask for more flexibility in agriculture and intellectual property issues before agreeing to the deal. Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo Manrique said the request comprises 10 percent of FTA negotiations.

The longer the two sides go without signing the deal, the higher the chance that it will not get signed because the governments of all four countries will be increasingly consumed with domestic political issues in the months ahead. November likely is the last month the agreements can be signed. Toledo and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez remain strongly in favor of the deal, meaning that when push comes to shove they could decide to leave Ecuador behind and sign agreements with Washington regardless of Quito’s resistance. On the U.S. side, the troubled Bush administration must convince Congress -- which is busy gearing up for mid-term elections in 2006 and trying to fund rebuilding efforts after the hurricanes -- to make trade concessions to Latin American countries. Even if the deals are signed, the greatest obstacle to their ratification likely will be the U.S. Congress, which remains wary of FTAs and their impact on American producers and jobs. Mid-term elections will only make Congress lean in a more populist direction, and against new free trade deals.

B o l i v i a n E l e c t i o n sNovember and December will bring fierce campaigning in Bolivia as the on-again, off-again presidential election finally has been set for Dec. 18. The commission had thrown the country into turmoil Oct. 28 by indefinitely postponing the planned Dec. 4 election over unsolved redistricting issues in Congress. The issue was resolved by giving more seats to eastern states and removing two seats from La Paz, though the new arrangement will not sit well with the poorer highland groups, as it gives more power to the wealthier east. The election has become a battle between highland indigenous groups and lowland European descendents that control -- and benefit from -- the country’s natural resources.

An Oct. 19 poll by Grupo Ipsos Captura shows the race likely will be a close one. We Can (Podemos) candidate Jorge Quiroga, a U.S.-educated engineer and former head of state, was favored by 29.2 percent of respondents, while 28.3 percent favored indigenous leader and Movement Toward

November likely is the last month the U.S. free trade agreement with Peru, Ecuador and Colombia can be signed.


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Socialism candidate Evo Morales. Samuel Doria Medina of the National Unity Front got 16.5 percent. Four other candidates also are seeking the presidency.

Although the poll shows Quiroga and Morales virtually tied, Morales has learned how to play the political game -- and is poised to fight. The key difference between this election and previous ones is that indigenous and peasant groups have created a unified front against a fragmented right and center. The vacillation over redistricting during the past few months has energized the left-wing base. With so much at stake, political groups on both sides will stage tough offensives in the coming weeks.

E c o n o m i c F o c u s

M e x i c o : C a t e r i n g t o t h e P o o r , C o u r t i n gt h e M a r k e t s The front-runner in Mexico’s presidential race, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, is generating a great deal of speculation about what sort of president he might be if he wins the country’s July 2006 election. Lopez Obrador made a name for himself as a populist Mexico City mayor, and is the presidential nominee of the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). The PRD has never held the presidency and is a minority party in the legislature, but Lopez Obrador has led in presidential polls for many months. He currently is sporting a 10-point lead, although nearly 40 percent of the electorate is undecided.

Markets have been looking upon Lopez Obrador warily, as he has promised Mexico’s poor “cradle-to-grave” care from the federal government with sundry state welfare initiatives and protections for domestic industry that he says he intends to implement once in office. He has spoken out against the influence of foreign investors and big business over the country’s economy, and has been harshly critical of Washington. This has led many to question whether Lopez Obrador intends to chart a course similar to thatof Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez -- something the candidate has vehemently denied.

The difference between the upcoming presidential election and others is that indigenous and peasant groups have created a unified front.


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His choice of Rogelio Ramirez de la O as his chief economic adviser supports his assertions. Ramirez, a Cambridge University graduate, has considerable ties to Mexico’s business community and is respected by the markets. While Lopez Obrador has been calling for bigger government and more social spending, Ramirez -- in an effort to win their support -- has been cultivating ties with investors to assure them that Lopez Obrador intends to run a tight fiscal ship if elected. Lopez Obrador’s decision to tap Ramirez to be his economic adviser indicates that is seeking to follow the path not of Chavez, but one more akin to that chosen by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva.

In his 2002 presidential campaign, da Silva positioned himself as the champion of the country’s poor masses -- one prepared to stand up to the country’s elites and traditional ruling parties. The campaign was highly successful, but as soon as da Silva took office, his leftist rhetoric translated into a center-left administration. As da Silva campaigned, he realized that he could not escape Brazil’s economic realities, something markets and foreign investors made abundantly clear to him. As the Latin American country with the highest foreign debt burden, and one dependent on trade and foreign investment, no Brazilian leader can afford to risk the country’s economic well-being by scaring markets and investors with undisciplined


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economic management. After his campaign he named Henrique Meirelles, a former FleetBoston Financial Corp. banker, to be president of the Central Bank of Brazil in order to assuage the fears of jittery investors.

Mexico is in a similar situation. It depends heavily on the United States for trade and investment to support economic growth. More than 75 percent of foreign direct investment in the Mexican economy in the first half of 2005 came from the United States, with more than 80 percent of Mexican exports sold to its northern neighbor. This alone means that no Mexican president can afford to alienate foreign investors or to upset relations with Washington too greatly.

Mexico also has a large and inefficient state sector, is excessively bureaucratic, and depends on state energy firm Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) for more than one-third of the federal budget. The country’s political parties are realizing that the government is slowly running this golden goose into the ground as it takes an increasing amount of the firm’s revenues for itself, restricts the company’s ability to invest in new equipment and exploration, and bars it from accepting capital from foreign oil majors. This is occurring while Pemex’s largest fields are reaching maturity, all of which bodes ill for the Mexican economy. This is no time for increased state control over the economy.

These are significant economic vulnerabilities that will take much of the decision-making out of the hands of Mexico’s next president. The economic troubles the country faced in the 1994 and 1998 crises illustrate the potential consequences of failure to respect these vulnerabilities. This is why current President Vicente Fox has gone to considerable effort to impose fiscal discipline on the government. Maintaining economic stability is perhaps the only real achievement of his six-year term, which Fox achieved by reigning in spending.

In choosing Ramirez as his chief economic adviser, then, Lopez Obrador is indicating an acknowledgment of these realities. With more than half of Mexico’s 106 million people living in poverty, it is smart politics for him to cater to poor populations during the campaign on one hand while courting markets on the other. This is the exact approach that da Silva used in his own campaign. Upon taking office, da Silva’s need to responsibly run the country’s economy limited his capacity to expand social spending. This led some on the left flank to desert him, but his sound economic policy generated solid growth and had his approval ratings at 60 percent before his administration was engulfed by corruption scandals.


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Lopez Obrador would likely make a similar shift once in office. Though a PRD government would slow economic liberalization and be less business friendly than the Fox administration, it unlikely would reverse reforms because of the economic restrictions already mentioned and the need for legislative support from the country’s other two leading parties -- Fox’s economically liberal National Action Party and the moderate Institutional Revolutionary Party. A Lopez Obrador administration, then, if it should to come to pass, would likely select a center-left course that would attempt to blend social welfare with economic discipline.

S e c u r i t y F o c u s

A r g e n t i n a U.S. President George W. Bush’s planned visit to Argentina on Nov. 4-5 spurred a number of attacks and protests against American businesses around Buenos Aires in early October. Tactics included simple vandalism, letter bombs and the planting of other small incendiary devices. Most of the attacks were directed at branches of U.S. banks, car dealerships, restaurants and video stores in Buenos Aires suburbs. The vast majority of the attacks occurred Oct. 6 against three Citibank branches, two Bank of Boston branches, a Ford Motor Co. dealership and a Blockbuster Video store. The attacks caused minor damage and occurred after business hours.

The targets were “soft” and the bombs crude, indicating that the perpetrators were not sophisticated. The blasts, however, were coordinated, suggesting that one group or several groups in collusion were behind the attacks. The timing of the attacks, weeks before the Summit of the Americas, suggests that opposition groups hoped to make anti-American and anti-Bush statements. More attacks and protests against the United States are likely before and during Bush’s visit to the summit in Mar del Plata. Attacks should dissipate, although some U.S. and foreign entities still will be targeted periodically.

M e x i c oA series of attacks against Mexican federal and state police officers in the Mexican border towns of Nuevo Laredo and Tijuana during October highlight the rising incidence of violence along the U.S.-Mexican border. One police officer was killed in Nuevo Laredo and several others were shot at during drug-related investigations. Preliminary reports suggest that


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some of the attacks were perpetrated by hit men, possibly police officers themselves, connected to drug cartels. The U.S. government issued a warning that its federal officers should remain aware of possible attacks along the border. Tourists, businesspeople and government officials should remain vigilant. Border towns continue to be zones of concentrated violence. It is advisable to avoid the area or limit time spent on the border. Mexico City, of course, remains quite dangerous for Western travelers, due to the high incidence of armed robberies, assaults and kidnappings.

Ve n e z u e l aAs Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez turns up the volume on anti-U.S. rhetoric, violence against Westerners, particularly Americans, could increase. In fact, a young Warao teenager in the northeastern Venezuelan state of Delta Amacuro stabbed and wounded an American missionary in mid-October following anti-American comments by Chavez. The president has neither specifically called for attacks against U.S. citizens nor condoned those that have occurred, but his comments against the United States certainly could be seen as fanning the flames. If his poll numbers continue to drop, this rhetoric could increase. As a result of recent incidents, Mormon missionaries already are pulling out of the country. The U.S. government also has received information related to kidnappings and robberies around the Simon Bolivar International Airport near Caracas. Visitors should remain vigilant or avoid the country, if possible. Violence and threats to foreigners will continue.

H u r r i c a n e D a m a g eHurricanes Wilma, Stan and Beta all struck the region during October, causing damage estimated in the billions of dollars. Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua were all affected to varying degrees. Hurricane Wilma hit Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula in late October, affecting the prime tourist areas of Cozumel, Cancun and Playa del Carmen. Hurricane Stan affected Guatemala, southern Mexico, Honduras and El Salvador, causing immense flooding and mudslides. The less-intense Hurricane Beta caused minor flooding and mudslides in Nicaragua. Damage to infrastructure is great and travelers should be aware that the region continues to recover. Businesses should be prepared for an extended wait time for goods arriving to and from the region. Regional officials estimate recovery will take from three months to several years. Health standards will deteriorate in some areas and travelers should be aware that health, hygiene and food problems will continue.


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N o t e w o r t h y E v e n t s

Oct. 5, UNITED STATES: The White House announces that U.S. President George W. Bush will visit Argentina on Nov. 4-5 to participate in the fourth Summit of the Americas in Buenos Aires.

Oct. 5, COLOMBIA: Colombia grants political asylum to former Ecuadorian President Lucio Gutierrez and three companions.

Oct. 6, ARGENTINA: Three letter bombs explode in San Martín, San Miguel and Quilmes provinces in protest of U.S. President George W. Bush’s scheduled November visit to attend the Summit of the Americas. No one is injured.

Oct. 6, BOLIVIA: Congress summons presidential candidates for the December elections to an emergency meeting to discuss parameters of the election and the Constitutional Court’s recent census ruling.

Oct. 6, PERU: Former President Alberto Fujimori announces his intention to run for the presidency in 2006.

Oct. 7, NICARAGUA: The two leading political parties agree to let embattled President Enrique Bolanos finish out his term, due to expire in 2006.

Oct. 7, COLOMBIA: The government says it will not extradite leaders of the paramilitary group United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia to the United States to face drug-trafficking charges if the group complies with the country’s Peace and Justice Law.

Oct. 10, COLOMBIA: Sen. German Vargas Lleras survives an assassination attempt in Bogotá when a car bomb explodes as his convoy passes. Vargas Lleras is unhurt, but three police guards and six passersby are injured.

Oct. 11, ARGENTINA: Despite Argentina’s strong economic growth, U.S. businesses remain wary of investing in the country because of a weak investment environment, says U.S. Chamber of Commerce Vice President for Western Hemisphere Affairs John Murphy.

Oct. 11, VENEZUELA: Venezuela says it has no plans to acquire a nuclear reactor a day after stories appear in Argentine media saying Venezuela is closing in on a deal to buy a nuclear reactor from Argentina.


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Oct. 12, COLOMBIA: Colombian security forces find mortars in a Bogotá house aimed at the presidential palace and the presidential guard’s headquarters.

Oct. 12, VENEZUELA: Polls show a 10 percent to 12 percent drop in support for President Hugo Chavez.

Oct. 16, VENEZUELA: Foreign Minister Ali Rodriguez says that Venezuela will join Mercosur to expand energy ties with Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.

Oct. 17, ARGENTINA: Some 30,000 oil industry workers in Argentina strike, vowing to remain idle until their salaries are increased by $87.

Oct. 18, PERU: The Supreme Court finds ousted President Alberto Fujimori not guilty of a charge of illegal arms trading.

Oct. 18, BRAZIL: Congress begins the impeachment process in the Ethics Council of the lower house against 11 lawmakers accused of taking bribes from the leading Workers’ Party.

Oct. 19, COLOMBIA: The Constitutional Court rules in favor of a law that allows incumbent presidents to serve more than one term. The ruling allows President Alvaro Uribe Velez to stand for re-election in May.

Oct. 19, VENEZUELA: Venezuela reaffirms its intentions to pursue nuclear energy programs for “peaceful ends.”

Oct. 20, CAFTA-DR: Leaders of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and the Dominican Republic, in a meeting with U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez, agree that the U.S.-Central American-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement will go into effect Jan. 1, 2006.

Oct. 20, VENEZUELA: President Hugo Chavez says Caracas is ready to become a major supplier of oil to Europe. Venezuela has an oil output plan through 2015 that requires $70 billion in investments, which Chavez wants foreign energy companies to help provide.

Oct. 20, VENEZUELA: President Hugo Chavez says the United States wants to invade Venezuela to seize control of its oil reserves.


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Oct. 21, VENEZUELA: Israel freezes a $100 million contract to upgrade Venezuela’s U.S.-made F-16 fighters after coming under pressure from Washington.

Oct. 22, ECUADOR: Ecuador reports that left-wing groups from Ecuador and other Latin American countries have received training in urban guerrilla war tactics from Venezuela.

Oct. 23, COLOMBIA: Unidentified thieves steal radioactive material from Colombian state-owned oil company Ecopetrol in rural La Gloria, north of Bogotá.

Oct. 23, ARGENTINA: President Nestor Kirchner’s Victory Party makes significant gains in legislative elections, exit polls and preliminary results show.

Oct. 26, COLOMBIA: Juan Noguera, director of Colombian intelligence agency the Administration Security Department, resigns amid allegations that the right-wing paramilitary group United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia infiltrated his agency.

Oct. 27, COLOMBIA/PERU/ECUADOR: The presidents of Colombia, Peru and Ecuador announce plans to ask U.S. President George W. Bush for more flexibility over agricultural and intellectual property issues yet to be negotiated in free trade talks.

Oct. 27, BOLIVIA: President Eduardo Rodriguez says he will retain his post until “fulfilling his constitutional mandate,” despite the problems facing his government.

Oct. 28, CHILE: Chile announces plans to sign a free trade agreement with China in November. Chile hopes to double exports to China by 2008.

Oct. 28, ECUADOR: Ecuador’s political crisis deepens after Congress votes to ask the Organization of American States to intervene in the battle between President Alfredo Palacio and Congress over upcoming election dates and the rewriting of the constitution.

Oct. 28, CUBA: Cuba accepts an offer of assistance from the United States for recovery aid related to Hurricane Wilma.


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Oct, 28, BOLIVIA: The National Election Court suspends elections set for Dec. 4 because legislators cannot agree on redistricting.

Oct. 30, VENEZUELA: President Hugo Chavez says he anticipates a lively debate when he meets U.S. President George W. Bush and other leaders at the upcoming Summit of the Americas in Argentina.

Oct. 31, BOLIVAN: Bolivian leaders meet in the eastern city of Santa Cruz to discuss the political situation that threatens Bolivia’s elections, political stability and territorial integrity. The meeting follows the National Election Court’s suspension of elections.

U p c o m i n g

Nov. 4-5, ARGENTINA: Heads of state from the Organization of American States are to meet for the Summit of the Americas; U.S. President George W. Bush plans to attend.

Nov. 5-6, BRAZIL: U.S. President George W. Bush is to travel to Brazil to meet with Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva.

Nov. 6-7, PANAMA: U.S. President George W. Bush is to be in Panama to meet with President Martin Torrijos.

Nov. 9, BRAZIL: Legislator Jose Dirceu will face impeachment by his peers in parliament over allegations that his was involved in bribing opposing lawmakers to support President Nestor Kirchner’s initiatives

Nov. 10-20, ALGERIA: Leaders from the South American Community of Nations, along with Arab and African countries, will hold a summit in Algiers.

Nov 18-19, CHILE: Chilean officials will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea.

Nov. 27, GUATEMALA: Presidential elections are scheduled. The race is evenly split between ruling National Party candidate Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo and Liberal Party candidate Manuel “Mel” Zelaya.

Nov. 29-30, EGYPT: Representatives from the South American Community of Nations, along with Arab and African countries, will meet in Cairo to discuss issues facing the two continents.


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C h a n g e s

ArgentinaThe most significant result of the Oct. 23 legislative elections was the victory of President Nestor Kirchner’s wife, Christina Fernandez, over former President Eduardo Duhalde’s wife, Hilda Chiche Gonzalez, for a Senate seat from Buenos Aires province. This win ensures that Kirchner replaces Duhalde as the main power in the province and removes Duhalde as a threat in the 2007 presidential elections. BrazilRep. Jose Borba of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party and Rep. Paulo Rocha of the ruling Workers’ Party resigned Oct. 17, shortly before the deadline for their impeachment. The congressmen are among the many Brazilian lawmakers involved in the alleged bribes-for-votes scandal. In avoiding impeachment proceedings, they will not be stripped of their right to run for re-election within the next eight years.

ColombiaAdministrative Security Department (DAS) Director Jorge Noguera resigned under pressure Oct. 25 following allegations that paramilitaries had infiltrated his organization. DAS officers reportedly were caught on tape making plans to sell information to the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia. Colombian President Alvaro Uribe Velez fired DAS Deputy Director Jose Miguel Narvaez, who reportedly ordered the tape recording to ensnare Noguera. Enrique Ariza, head of the DAS Special Intelligence Group for 11 years, resigned Oct. 30 in connection with the scandal.

Costa RicaDavid Fuentes, the former vice minister of finance, is appointed finance minister following the resignation of Federico Carrillo. Fuentes said he will continue Carrillo’s policies. Finance minister since September 2004, Carrillo resigned to become the new vice president of the Central American Economic Integration Bank.

EcuadorFrancisco Carrion, grandson of left-wing intellectual Benjamin Carrion, becomes foreign minister, replacing Antonio Parra Gil. Carrion, a former diplomatic coordinator, aided in peace negotiations with Peru and served for five years as ambassador to Spain, specifically dealing with the critical issue of migrant flow from Ecuador to Spain. He has worked on behalf of poor and migrant workers, but many view the change as undermining


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indigenous groups’ influence, which held sway over foreign policy under Parra Gil. The move will allow President Alfredo Palacio to minimize indigenous influence in foreign policy.

Galo Chiriboga was appointed interim interior minister Oct. 12. He replaced Oswaldo Molestina, who resigned a month after his appointment, citing differences with Palacio over a proposed national referendum on a new constitution.

MexicoFernando Flores, former deputy labor minister, was appointed director of the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) after Director Santiago Levy resigned. Flores is formerly an IMSS adviser. NicaraguaThe National Assembly unanimously elected Alfredo Gomez, a former veterinarian and moderate politician, as Nicaragua’s vice president. Gomez won support from the right-wing Liberal Constitutionalist Party and the left-wing Sandinista National Liberation Front.


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