MONITORING OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERSAND SNOW COVER

 

ANIL V. KULKARNI 

PROJECT COORDINATORSNOW AND GLACIER PROJECT

 

SPACE APPLICATIONS CENTRE INDIAN SPACE RESEARCH ORGANISATION

AHMEDABAD-380015, INDIA

• Himalayas has one of the largest concentration of glacier-stored water out side the Polar Regions. Himalayas has approx. 33,000 sq km area under glaciers.

• During winter large areas of Himalayas covered by seasonal snow.

• Basic information about snow and glaciers is difficult to obtain due to inaccessible terrain and extreme weather conditions. Satellite remote sensing with high spatial, temporal and spectral resolution can provide vital information about various aspects of snow and glaciers.

IMPORTANCE OF SNOW AND GLACIERS

GLACIATION HISTORY OF THE EARTH

The Earth has experienced three major and four inter glacier periods in last 350 Thousand years.

During interglacial period the atmospheric temperature was higher and it was well synchronized with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

However, during peak of paleo interglacial period, concentration of carbon dioxide was lower than 300 ppm and present concentration is around 380 ppm.

GEOMORPHOLOGY OF HIMALAYAN GLACIERS: SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, H.P., INDIA

Tributaryglacier

Ablation area

Accumulation area

Moraine

Moraine-dammedlake

IRS LISS IV26 Aug. 2008Zanskar basin(J & K)

lake

Ablationarea

Accumulationarea

Lateral moraine

Snow line

Glacier boundary

Tributaryglacier

Snout

GLACIER FEATURES

SPECTRAL REFLECTANCE OF SNOW, ICE AND OTHER FEATURES

(Kulkarni et. al. 2007)

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

350 850 1350 1850wavelength (nm)

Re

fle

cta

nce

snow

cont. snow

soil

ice

vegetation

water

DISRIBUTION OF GLACIERS IN THE HIMALAYA(FROM: Kulkarni et. al., 1991, 1996, 2005)

Basin Year ofData

Number of glaciers,glacieretssnowfield

Arealextent (sq km)

Satluj (H.P.) 1993 2322 2697

Tista (Sikkim) 1997 284 692

Dhauli Ganga(Uttarakhand)

1996 108 229

Chenab (H.P.) 2001 1186 1420

Total ----- 3900 5038

Basin Scale Year ofData

Glaciernumber

Arealextent (sq km)

IndianHimalaya

250000 1988 1702 23,300

RETREAT OF PARBATI GLACIER

Dead ice zone

LISS-III and PAN1998

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Cumulative percent area

Alt

itu

de

(m)Dead ice zone

LISS-IV: 2004

4000

4200

4400

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Cumulative percent area

Alt

itu

de

(m)

AREA ALTITUDE DISTRIBUTION

Year Area (sq. km)

Loss in area(sq. km)

Cumulative loss in length (m)

Rate m/yr.

1990 40.14 ----- ----

1998 38.21 1.93 459 57

2000 37.73 0.48 22 11

2001 36.87 0.84 97 97

2004 130 43

2006 76 38

Loss 1990-2006 784 49

Snow line altitude at the end of ablation seasonSnow line altitude at the end of ablation season

RETREAT OF GLACIERS IN INDIAN HIMALAYA

Parbati (1990-06)

Sara Umaga (1989-2004)

Gangotri (1976-1996)

Dokriani Bamak (1991-2007)

Hamta (1961-2005)

Samudra Tapu (1993-2000)

Pindari (1966-2007)

SAMUDRA TAPU GLACIER, HIMACHAL PRADESH IRS LISS IV IMAGERY

SEPTEMBER 16, 2006

Year Area of Glacier (sq. km.)

Cumulative Loss in Area (ha)

Annual loss in area (ha/y)

1976 72.41 --- ---- 1989 72.17 24 1.8 2000 71.93 48 2.1 2006 71.83 58 1.6

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

ANNUAL LOSS OF GLACIER AREA IN INDIAN HIMALAYA1962 - 2001/4

116

111

253

189166

9019

126187

6057

Mean rate of area loss 0.39 % per year

MOUNTAIN GLACIER RETREAT IN DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE WORLD

From: Racoviteanu et al. 2008

FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIER: CHENAB

FRAGMENTATION OF GLACIERS CHENAB BASIN

(Kulkarni et al 2007)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.2 0.32 0.86 1.4 3.5 5.6 14.3 23 57 91 360area (km^2)

No.

of G

laci

ers

1962

2001

CAUSES OF FRAGMENTATION

Ice melt near Gomukh, Gangotri glacier. Less melt near Gomukh. (Source: Maruthi et.al., 2003)

3900

4000

4100

4200

4300

-70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0

Melt in cm

Hei

gh

t

Glacier mass balance for 228 glaciers distributed through out the globe, Cumulative mean ice loss is 20 m w.e. out of 100 m. Disintegrating many glaciers (Zemp et al., 2009)

Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.

GLACIERS IN PARBATI BASIN

EFFECT OF FRAGMENTATION ON RETREAT: CHENAB

1962

2004

52H12003

52H12004Glacial ice

Fragmentation will have profound impact on glacial retreat. It effectively reduces depth, response time and accelerates retreat.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

<1 1 to 5 5 to 10 > 10

Glacier area (sq km)

Are

a lo

ss fr

om 1

962-

2001

(%)

Influence of glacier size on retreat

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

Glacier Area (sq km)

Lo

ss in

are

a in

% P

er y

ear

Chandra

Sept. 6, 5

Sept. 6, 5

GLACIERS ZERO AAR: BHAGA: 18 CHANDRA: 4 BASPA 4

MEAN SP. MASS BALANCE: 19 GLACIRS BASPA BASIN2001: - 40 cm 2002: -78 cm 2004: -57 cm

Loss of glacial ice: 0.11735 cu km/year

-140

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

Accumulation area ratio

Ma

ss

ba

lan

ce

(c

m)

R = 0.89

DEVELOPMENT OF MODEL TO ESTIMATE MASS BALANCE: BASPA BASIN

(KULKARNI 1992, 2004)

CHANGES IN MASS BALANCE IN HIMALAYA

BASPA: Snowline shift 4900- 5200 m between 1976 TO 2006 AAR FROM 0.7 TO 0.3.

In the Himalaya no systematic record is available. Maximum alt. of snow line is shifted from 4800 m to 5200 m from mid 1980 to 2008. This is significantly affecting mass balance

Snow line altitude at the end of summer on Chhotha Shigri glacier

4700

4800

4900

5000

5100

5200

5300

5400

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year of observation

sno

w l

ine

alti

tud

e m

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Warwan: 340 glaciers

1975-90

2000-06

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

6000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Warwan: 340 glaciers

1975-90

2000-06

CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECEPITATION IN WESTERN HIMALAYA

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1988-89 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2000-01 2003-04 2006-07

Year

Pre

cip

itati

on

(cm

)

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

From: Shekhar et. al., 2009

MODELING GLACIAL CHANGES PARBATI GLACIER

OBSERVATIONS

Arial extent of glacier in 2001 23.7 km2

Accumulation area in 2001 3.56 km2

Accumulation Area Ratio in 2001 0.138

Estimated glacial mass balance 2001 -86 cm

Estimated depth of glacier in 2001 126 m

Measured rate of melting at snout -6 m/year

Measured glacier length in 2001 10120 m

PREDICTIONS

Estimated response time from 2001 21 years

Estimated loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2022 1461 m (69 m/y)

VALIDATION

Measured loss in glacial length from 2001 to 2006 206 m (41 m/y)

Kulkarni et al., Current Science 88(11), 2005

SNOW STUDIES

SNOW COVER MONITORING USING NDSI METHOD

DISCRIMINATION of SNOW and CLOUDs, SNOW UNDER MOUNTAIN SHADOW

FCCFCC NDSI

Snow accumulation and ablation pattern in basins located in different parts of Himalaya

Ravi basin (10 Daily)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date

% A

real exte

nt

of

Sn

ow

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

Bhaga basin (10 Daily)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date

% A

real exte

nt

of

Sn

ow

2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

0

20

40

60

80

100

1-Oct 1-Dec 1-Feb 1-Apr 1-Jun

Date

% A

real

exte

nt

of

sn

ow

year 04-05 year05-06 year 06-07

Alaknanda basin (10 Daily)

TISTA BASIN (COMPOSITE) 2004-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

O N D J F M A M J

MONTHS

% A

RE

AL

EX

TE

NT

OF

SN

OW

2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008

OCT DEC FEB APR JUN

Mean snow fall Western Himalaya: 2004-5: 739 cm; 2005-6: 606 cm; 2006-7: 596 cm

SNOW DEPLETION CURVE:BEAS BASIN ALTITUDE 3000-3600 m

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 85 88 90 92

Year of observations

Dis

char

ge

(cu

mec

s)

5-yr running average December

INCREASE IN STREAM RUNOFF OF BASPA BASIN FOR DECEMBER BETWEEN 1966 TO 1993 IS FROM 8 TO 14 CUMECS

(Kulkarni et. al. 2002 and 2003)

DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF

MODEL FOR MICRO AND MINI RIVER BASINS

(Kulkarni et. al. 2002)

SEASONAL SNOW AND GLACIER MELT RUNOFF MODELING(Pre-feasibility investigation, Autumn, winter, summer, Monsoon )

Q=c{a(T*G)}+c{S*W)-(M*Sw)} + (c*P*B) Where,

Q = Average seasonal runoff (cu m/s)

C = Runoff coefficient

a = Melt factor (cm/degree C.d)

T = Average seasonal degree-day (degree.day)

G = Area of snow and glaciers (sq km)

S = Area of seasonal snow (sq km)

W = Water equivalent of winter snow fall (m)

M = Winter snow melt (m)

Sw= Snow cover in winter

P = Average seasonal rainfall (m)

B = Basin area without snow/glacier (sq m)

Validation of snow and glacier melt runoff model: Wangar Gad basin(Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009 in press)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Autumn Winter Monsoon Summer

Err

or

(%) 3.4 %

4.7 %

4.1 %

4.9 %

Estimated seasonal runoff (cumecs) in Wangar Gad basin due to rise in temperature by 1oC

(Rathore and Kulkarni, 2009 in press)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4

Season

Ru

no

ff (

Cu

mec)

Autumn Winter Summer Monsoon

-20 %

-18 %

-8 %-28 %

SALIENT OBSERVATIONS

• Retreat of 1317 glaciers 11 basins suggest 16 % loss in area from 1962.

• Mean of glacial extent reduced from 1.4 to 0.32 sq km. Number of glaciers increased due to fragmentation but extent is reduced.

• Snow line at the end of summer changed from 4900 m to 5300 m from 1970. Many glaciers are without accumulation area and may experience terminal retreat due to lack of formation of new ice.

• Large scale melting and retreat of seasonal snow was observed in basins like Ravi throughout the winter. In high altitude basins like Baspa and Bhaga, large scale retreat was observed in beginning of winter. Snow depletion curve in Beas basin suggest early and rapid melting of snow cover.

• Average stream runoff of Baspa river in December was increased by 75 per cent from 1970.

THANKS

TERMINUS OF PARBATI GLACIER