kammen
DESCRIPTION
New grid e grid systems to meet development challengesTRANSCRIPT
New Grid and Smart G id S tGrid Systems
to Meetto Meet Development Challenges
Professor Daniel M. KammenChief Technical Specialist for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
July, 2011
p gy gy yThe World Bank
Rome, Italy
Also: Founding Director of theg
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley
http://rael.berkeley.edu
WORLD BANK LENDING ENERGY PORTFOLIO
MedupiRSA
2010 P tf li i 65% f il f l2010: Portfolio is 65% non-fossil fuel2011: New Energy Strategy (in review)
CONTENTS
• Building up expanded grid / smart grid capacity
• Short‐term impacts of variable power generation
• Variable generation technologies and planning
• Information management for the new / smart grid
• Transmission Planning and Renewable Energy
2
PLANNING AFTER DEREGULATION
• Planning was forgotten by many agencies for years…
• Indicative planning used to check if the market (independent decisions by investors) is delivering the required investment
• Planning as the basis to determine investments in non‐competitive areas: transmission and distribution
• Other applications: determine capacity payments or long‐term marginal cost reference price signals used in different forms of private sector contracting
• Rebirth of planning with the introduction of new market designs to ensure supply adequacy based on long‐term organized markets: Competition for the market and not in the market (e.g. Brazil, Colombia)
• Most important: systems assessments and integration key to managing costs and carbon
TODAY’S GRID
Top‐down control
Demand drives generationD / i ht d l d d
>230kV
Day/night and seasonal demand predictable to better than 3%
Conservative design and operation to d t f ilaccommodate failures
>69kV
Operates well with oneOperates well with one
ISO managed
Utility managedOperates well with oneOperates well with one‐‐way flow and static way flow and static
conditionsconditions
THE FUTURE GRID HAS NEW NEEDS
Variable wind and solar generationWind variable at minutes timescale
S l i bl d i l
>230kV
Solar variable at seconds timescale
Solid state inverters reduce inertia in system
l d d dComplicated demand Potential for charging 1 million plug‐in electric vehicles (PEVs) tooverload the distribution system
>69kV
overload the distribution system
Demand response (DR)
Generation behind the meter
f d hSignificant generation and storage at the distribution level
Th ill i tTh ill i tThere will exist a very There will exist a very complex dynamic interaction complex dynamic interaction between load and generation between load and generation
with unknown resultswith unknown results
+ -
+ - + - + - + - + -
with unknown resultswith unknown results StorageSolar PV & PEVs
TEAM DEVELOPS NEW TECHNIQUES TO SCALE AND ENHANCE ELECTRIC GRID
PLANNING AND OPERATIONS MODELSPLANNING AND OPERATIONS MODELS
Increasing grid complexity and dynamics (e.g., variable renewable, 100X data rates, 100X nodes). Existing planning codes use single-processor environments
Research focus on algorithms and approaches for scaling selected codes and methods
Task 1: Develop high resolution models of grid, including distribution system
Solar thermal
Task 2: Use dynamic techniques to model wind, solar, demand response variability
T k 3 S l t h tiTask 3: Scale stochastic optimization algorithms to exploit parallel hardware
Task 4: Implement on HPC platformsTask 4: Implement on HPC platforms
Use of HPC is novel within electric industry and could Use of HPC is novel within electric industry and could revolutionize grid design and operationrevolutionize grid design and operation
Solar PV and wind
6
revolutionize grid design and operationrevolutionize grid design and operation
UNDERSTANDING PLANNING: SCREENING CURVE ANALYSIS
• Traditional generation planning has similarities with short term economic dispatch operations: definite the least‐cost generation schedule and new additions program for the next 5‐20 years.
• The main difference is that in generation planning a decision has to be made with regard to the new generation plants that should be added to the system to meet expected long run demand at least costthe system to meet expected long‐run demand at least‐cost
MW20,000
~ 6 % annual demand growht
MW6,000
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 29
6,000
MW Jan/09 July/09 Jan/10 July/10
4,500
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16.. 29
Long-term demand projection (20 years)Generation Planning
4,500 Yearly load-curve (1.5 years)Operations planning
Daily load curve (24 hrs)Short-term dispatch
LOCAL SCALE:LOCAL SCALE:CONCEPT OF OPEN ARCHITECTURE SMART HOME
8
FIRST STEP TO NATIONAL GRID ‐ TRESAMIGAS INTERCONNECT SUPERSTATIONCONNECTS THE 3 MAJOR GRIDS OF U.S.
9
Site information hyperlink
LARGE SCALE:DIRECT CURRENT INTERCONNECT – RESOLVES AC PHASING ISSUES AND ENABLES RE FROM SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN LOAD CENTERS
10
Site information hyperlink
EMERGING APPROACHES TO TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT
• Renewable energy zones rapid change is possible (planning/economics)
RE‐zones approved in 2008
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory& US DOE
11
I d R bl ith Di ifi d SIncreased Renewables with Diversified Sources‐with benefit of long distance and intelligent grid
Average Load
NATURAL GASNATURAL GASSOLAR/PVSOLAR/PV
Load
Base Load
WINDWIND
COALCOAL
Load
NUCLEARNUCLEAR
HYDRO + OTHERHYDRO + OTHER
NUCLEARNUCLEAR
12
UNDERSTANDING PLANNING: SIMPLIFIED SCREENING CURVE ANALYSIS
• Long term generation planning and smart systems integration
Long run planning to
MW
20 000
answer: What, when, and how to add new
generation capacity to meet future demand ?20,000 meet future demand ?
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 …. 2027 2028 2029
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANS IN CHINA / SMART SYSTEMS PLANNING
Renewable6%
14
16
Energy Nuclear
Hydro16%
CCP Scenario(2,336 GW)
10
12
14
(Gton)
gyEfficiency
Low‐carbon technology
Coal60%
Oil & gas14%
4%
6
8
10
emission
s technology
ENV Scenario(1,975 GW)
2
4
6
CO2e
Coal, 30%
Renewable, 23
%
0
2
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Oil & Gas, 16
%
Hydro, 23%
World Bank Group
Nuclear,8%
CHALLENGES OF GRID ENVIRONMENT IN CHINA
Energy SecurityRenewable
6%Energy SecurityCoal, oil & gas, nuclearGrid integration, reliability and stability
Nuclear
Hydro16%
BAU Scenario(2,336 GW)
Load demand to double by 2030Urbanization
Increasing density of load demand
Coal60%
Oil & gas14%
4%
Increasing density of load demandIncreasing demand for high quality of
power supply (work and life‐style)Increasing environmental sensitivityIncreasing environmental sensitivity
Green Growth and Climate Change• Shift to less energy‐intensive and
Coal, 30%Renewable, 23%
SD Scenario(1,975 GW)
higher value‐added economy• Costs of local and global emissions
Oil & Gas, 16%
Hydro, 23%
World Bank Group
Nuclear, 8%
OUTLOOKSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (SD) SCENARIO IS
INCREASINGLY AFFORDABLE AS THE ECONOMY CONTINUES
TO GROW, BUT THE INCREMENTAL COST IS LARGE INITIALLY
Investments Costs as a share of GDP(3 year moving average; Capex Investment )
2,0%
SD
1,5%
SD
0,5%
1,0%BAU
0,0%
0,5%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
World Bank Group
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
OUTLOOKSTRONG AND SMART GRIDS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
ENABLING SAFE, SECURE AND EFFICIENT TRANSITION
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Accelerating energy efficiency (EE) throughSmart Metering, Time-based Tariff Systems/ Dynamic PricingNet Metering and Distributed Power GenerationDSM EE trade and servicesDSM, EE trade and services
Scaling-up renewable energy (RE) throughDSP (e.g. phasor measurements) and wide-area stability controlFl ibl AC/DC i i (l d fl l)Flexible AC/DC transmission system (load flow control)Energy storage, network management and RE trading
Integration of New/Advanced Technologiesg g• Off-shore wind, Concentrated Solar Power and advanced solar
PV• Electric vehicles
World Bank Group
• Electric vehicles• “Zero emission” buildings
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Pricing reforms are key for smart energy grid
nt c
ost Energy
EfficiencyRenewable Energy
New Technologies
Aba
tem
enC
O2
A STRONG AND SMART GRID
•Regulations and financial incentives
•Feed-in Tariff or RE Portfolio Standard
• Support for R&D• Financingfinancial incentives
(e.g. tariffs)• Financing mechanisms
Portfolio Standard• Tax on fossil fuel• Cap and trade CO2
• Financing incremental cost • Technology transfer and pilot
World Bank Group
• Institutional reforms projects
LOAD AREAS AND TRANSMISSION
Load areas are parts of the grid:• Within which there is significant
existing distribution
50 Load Areas
• Between which there is limited existing transmission
• Congested transmission paths are retained
• Defined predominantly by existing borders• Control areas, load serving
entities, country and state borders, urban areas, mountain ranges, etc.
Transmission in SWITCH:• Is built between major substations of adjacent load
areas along existing lines when possible• Minimizes ecological impact and citing difficulties
• Costs $1000/MW‐km to build• Obeys thermal limits• Does not yet capture differences between AC and DC
EXISTING GRID AREAS
• Existing Generators• Existing Generators:• Are given the option to run or
be mothballed in each investment period• Mixed integer linear program!
• Have plant primemover• Have plant‐primemover specific heat rates
• Are retired after their
Hydroelectric 67 GW
operational lifetime
• Use historical monthly flows used to constrain daily Hydroelectric 67 GW
Nuclear 9 GWCoal 38 GWGeothermal 2 GWG 82 GW
DC Line500 kV
used to constrain daily hydroelectric generation• Existing hydroelectric is must‐
run
20Source: Ventyx EV Energy Map
Gas 82 GWWind 10 GW
run
Technologies SWITCH Can Currently Build
Compressed AirEnergy StorageEnergy Storage
21
22
RPS Enabled and No Carbon TaxDispatch in 2026‐2029Dispatch in 2026‐2029
• No new policy caseR t l t t t ti d b ti• Represents lowest cost system operation under above assumptions
• Coal increases to from 33% to 47% of generation
• Emissions increase to 197% of 1990 LevelsEmissions increase to 197% of 1990 Levels
• Solar makes a small appearance at 2% of generation
• Biomass solid, biogas and geothermal are installed to meet RPS targets
175
200
225Feb Apr Jun RPS Enabled
$0/tCO2
Jul Sep DecJan Mar May Aug Oct NovA
100
125
150
175
tion
(GW
)
SolarWindHydroelectric
50
75
100
Gen
erat Hydroelectric
GasGeothermalBiomass SolidBiogas
23
0
25
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
Hour of Day (PST)
BiogasCoalNuclearLoad16 20 0 4 8 12
RPS Enabled and No Carbon TaxGeneration and Transmission in 2026‐2029
• Cheap coal in W i i hi d
Generation and Transmission in 2026‐20292026-2029
RPS E bl dWyoming is shipped west
• Wind in the Rocky M i i
RPS Enabled$0/tCO2
Mountains is consumed locally
• Solar in the Average
TransmissionFlow (GW)
generated and used in the Desert Southwest
< 0.50.5 – 22 – 5> 5
Flow (GW)
• Biomass is consumed locally on the coast
• Hydro is shipped 5 GW
AverageGeneration
south to California
• California has highest RPS target of 33%
SolarWindGeothermalBiomass SolidBiogas
24
• Most diverse generation portfolio
BiogasHydroelectricGasCoalNuclear
Cost of Conserved Carbon in 2026‐2029100800
90
100
700
800
Cost of Power per MWh
RPS reduces emissions by 23%
70
80600
7)O2/y
r)
pWith RPS andWithout RPS
50
60
400
500
st ($
2007
ons
(MtC
Cost of Conserved Carbonper tCO2 With RPS andWithout RPS
CO2 EmissionsWith RPS andWithout RPS
30
40300
Cos
Emis
sio
1990 CO2 Emissions
20
30
100
200CO
2
2
0
10
0
100
25
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2)CCC reduction aidedby small carbon cost
1990 levels reachedat higher carbon costs
Generation Mix is Highly Sensitive to Nuclear Capital CostNuclear Capital Cost
• Optimal grid changes drastically as a function of nuclear capital b f $ /cost at carbon taxes of > $50/tCO2
• Increasing nuclear capital cost by $1/W tips the power mix far away from new nuclearaway from new nuclear
• Solar, wind, and natural gas substitute
$4/W Nuclear RPS Enabled 2026 2029 $5/W Nuclear RPS Enabled 2026 2029$4/W Nuclear, RPS Enabled, 2026-2029 $5/W Nuclear, RPS Enabled, 2026-2029
26
225B
Dispatch in2026‐2029 @ $60/tCO2
150
175
200
GW
)
Solar
Feb Apr Jun $4/W NuclearRPS Enabled
$60/tCO2
Jul Sep DecJan Mar May Aug Oct NovB
75
100
125
nera
tion
(G SolarWindHydroelectricGasGeothermal
0
25
50
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
Gen
GeothermalBiomass SolidBiogasCoalNuclear16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
Hour of Day (PST) Load16 20 0 4 8 12
200
225Feb Apr Jun $5/W Nuclear
RPS EnabledJul Sep DecJan Mar May Aug Oct NovC
125
150
175
on (G
W)
SolarWindHydroelectric
RPS Enabled$60/tCO2
50
75
100
Gen
erat
io HydroelectricGasGeothermalBiomass SolidBiogas
27
0
25
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
Hour of Day (PST)
BiogasCoalNuclearLoad16 20 0 4 8 12
Geographic Build‐Out of Low Carbon Scenarios• @ $4/W nuclear capital cost
• New nuclear dominates eastern generation and consumption• Also uses existing transmission to send power west
• @ $5/W nuclear capital cost@ $5/W nuclear capital cost• Solar and gas increase in the Desert Southwest
• 9% and 30% of WECC‐wide generation, respectively
• In both wind power is deployed in the Rocky Mountains
$5/W Nuclear$60/tCO
• In both, wind power is deployed in the Rocky Mountains
$4/W Nuclear$60/tCO $60/tCO2
RPS Enabled2026-2029
$60/tCO2RPS Enabled
2026-2029
5 GW
AverageGeneration
AverageTransmission
Flow (GW)
SolarWindGeothermalBiomass SolidBiogas
28
< 0.50.5 – 22 – 5> 5
( ) BiogasHydroelectricGasCoalNuclear
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• The cost of short‐term impacts..
Source: IEA Task 25 Design and Operation of Power Systems withLarge Amounts of Power
29
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• The cost of short‐term impacts..
Source: IEA Task 25 Design and Operation of Power Systems withLarge Amounts of Power
30
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• Emerging evidence
Wind integration costs are manageable
For levels below 10% of energy penetration costs are small
For levels 10% to 15%more impact on operative reserves, d th i D t il d t di d dand other services. Detailed studies recommended
For levels 15% to 30%more flexibility will be required, large interconnected areas wind diversity Studieslarge interconnected areas, wind diversity. Studies highly recommended
31
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• Flexibility is the key to accommodate variable sources
nd
nsiv
e,
• Flexibility is the key to accommodate variable sources
kets
,
Goo
d C
CG
T
age:
ote
m:
ts greg
ate
win
ss d
iffer
ent
mos
t exp
ene
solu
tions
$or
ene
rgy
al ti
me
mar
ks… en
erat
ion:
Gap
ab: G
T, C
on w
ith s
tora
mpe
d hy
dro
nect
ed s
yst
tiple
mar
ket
Div
ersi
fy/a
ggow
er: a
cros
reas
Oth
er,
stor
age$
e w
indo
ws
fosp
atch
: rea
ead
mar
kets
Flex
ible
ge
ram
ping
ca
Gen
erat
iohy
dro,
pum
hly
inte
rcon
nne
ct to
mul
t D po ar
Mul
tiple
trade
/di
day
ahe
Hig
hco
nn
32Solutions
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
Critical conditions: how transmission flexibility has helped Denmark ?Critical conditions: how transmission flexibility has helped Denmark ?
• During high wind conditions: excess tradedto NORDEL or Germanyto NORDEL or Germany
•During rapid wind decrease, large balancingarea permit imports from Germany
• Grid stability is improved by interconnections
Source Energinet.dk Denmark’s TSODenmark s TSO
Wind power generation 22.22 %of total consumption in 2007
3333
of total consumption in 2007
SOLAR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
nin
<5
mi
wn
Spi
ke
85%
Dow
Ob d i t f T i t Cl d O Utilit l PV Fi ld
(a) Ten second resolution Global Horizontal Incidence cloudy and clear day(b) Ten second resolution power production cloudy and clear day[ 25 MW field, Florida w/tracking]
8
Observed impacts of Transient Clouds On Utility scale PV Fields Kankiewicz, Sengupta& Moon www.ases.org/papers/112.pdf
34
10% OF CARS EV IN THE US ….When to Charge EVs?When to Charge EVs?Charging at night could increase need for Base LoadDaytime charging can be done with SolarOptimal charging requires information feedback and pricing tools‐ Optimal charging requires information feedback and pricing tools
Average Load
EV LoadTo Scale
LoadNATURAL GASNATURAL GAS
SOLAR/PVSOLAR/PVBase Load
WINDWIND
COALCOAL
Load
NUCLEARNUCLEAR
HYDRO + OTHERHYDRO + OTHER
NUCLEARNUCLEAR
35
TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Wind potential in Oaxaca 10 GW
First 1,895 MW of privately‐developed wind power require a new framework to expand the publicly‐owned transmission system with 271 km of double circuit 400 Kv lines plus 2,125 MVA substation are needed
• Average wind velocity above 15 /
*Source: CRE (2009) and CFE (2009)
m/s
• Average plant load factor > 50%
f f• Location: remote, far from consumption centers and the transmission system
• Smart system critical to use current and then future grid effectivelyy
36
TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Open for Private Wind Power Producers: Reducing and SharingMexico: Open for Private Wind Power Producers: Reducing and Sharing Transmission Costs
Wind power operating and committedWind power operating and committed
37Source: CFE
TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Open Season process flowMexico: Open Season process flow
38
CONCLUSIONS / DIRCTIONS
New Planning Tools Are Needed For Local Management and Long‐term regional planning
• Developing a new generation of tools
• Co‐evolution of generation technology, energy efficiency and demand‐side planning
b l d d• Low‐carbon options at least cost require coordination and integration
• A secure energy, low‐cost set of products to assist all nations
39