renewable and appropriate energy laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu science and policy for deep cuts in...

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu

Science and Policy for Deep Cuts in Carbon Emissions

Daniel M. Kammen

Co-Director, Berkeley Institute of the EnvironmentEnergy and Resources Group & Goldman School of Public Policy

Department of Nuclear EngineeringUniversity of California, Berkeley

Materials online at: http://rael.berkeley.edu

APS, UC Berkeley, February 29, 2008


Outline

•The most common call for a new energy economy is for diversity

• Operationally, what does this mean?

• Energy efficiency has been the greatest success to date, more are needed, and fast

• Carbon accounting and pricing is essential

• Developing nations will be the locus of many of the largest

impacts and opportunities to build the clean-energy

economy, or to exert the most social and environmental

damage

• A foundation for a new wave of research and development requires investment and a outlet for implementation


Global Energy Supply by Fuel

Fossil Energy

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1980 2005 2030

1.6%

1.6%

1.3%

1.7%

1.6%

Oil

Gas

Coal

Other

MBDOEAverage Growth / Yr. 2000 - 2030

A massive carbonBaseline & inertia

Other Energy

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1980 2005 2030

1.6%

1.0%

2.2%

Nuclear

Hydro/Geo

Biomass / Other

MBDOE

Wind & Solar20.5%

1.4%

Biofuels 7.2%

Sufficient opportunitiesexist

Wind, Solar & Biofuels

0

1

2

3

4

5

1980 2005 2030

8.8%

12.5%

7.2%

Wind

Biofuels

MBDOE

8.4%Solar

Fastest growth, smallest sectors


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

CEC Data

Business as Usual

AB 32 Scenario

Required % Change from 1990 levelsCalif.: AB 32 Emissions Reductions


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

U.S

. G

HG

Em

issi

on

s (G

T C

eq

.)

Historic U. S.

emissions

Business as usual (EIA)

Kyoto protocol

Administration intensity target

Climate Stabilization Zone

Kammen, “September 27, 2006 – A day to remember”, San Francisco Chronicle, September 27,

The California commitment - scaled to the nation

California AB 32, AB1493 & EE 3-05

Scaled from CA to the nationCA targets scaled from 35 to 300 million


CC33:: taking the next step

C3

Dynamic Dynamic Up-to-date Up-to-date Flexible Flexible Transparent Transparent Open Open

and/or


Costs of Conserved Energy

1 Commercial lighting 6 Commercial water heating2 Commercial space conditioning 7 Commercial miscellaneous + other uses3 Commercial refrigeration 8 Residential refrigerators and freezers4 Residential lighting 9 Residential water heating5 Residential space conditioning 10 Residential miscellaneous + other uses

Potential Electricity Savings from High-Efficiency Case in 2010(5 Labs study: many authors in this room today)


Global CO2 Abatement Opportunities

Vattenfall, 2007


C3/GtT Team

• Prof. Dan Kammen, ERG/GSPP/Nuc. Eng -- Advisor• Joe Kantner, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Presentations; Linkages; Solar PV• Ian Hoffman, ERG – Team Co-Leader; Nuclear; Solar Thermal; Wind; Qualitative Indices• Jon Mingle, ERG – Energy Efficiency• Eric Gimon, LBL – Nuclear; Solar Thermal• Joe Levin, GSPP – Nuclear; Integration/Standardization• Anna Motschenbacher, ERG – Presentations; Linkages; Biophysical Feedbacks• Suzie Shin, ERG – Presentations; Integration/Standardization• Jameel Alsalam, GSPP – Solar Thermal• Josiah Johnston, ERG – Integration/Standardization; Wiki/Open Collaboration• Sam Borgeson, ERG/ARCH – Energy Efficiency• Alexia Byrne, ME -- Wind• Ryoichi Komiyama, LBL – LDNE Model• Thomas Goerner, Haas – Solar Thermal• Zack Norwood, ME – Solar Thermal• Kat Saad, CE – Integration/Standardization; Solar PV• Anand Gopal, ERG -- Biomass


Low-carbon technologies as least-cost, fast-deployment, technology options:

wind(ptc: US production tax credit)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

2005$/MWh

Operating Cost of Natural Gas Combined Cycle

Operating Cost of Natural Gas Combustion Turbine

Average Price of Wind Power With PTC

Wholesale Price Range for Flat Block of Power

Average Price of Wind Power Without PTC


80% of rural Nicaragua lacks electricityblueEnergy – an example NGO energy service provider based on the

Atlantic Coast


Information Technology Integrated with Solar Technology: Performance

Monitoring

00111001

Enphase ApplicationServers

Internet

00111001

Ethernet00111001


Micro-inverters versus traditional designs

Energy Biosciences Institute

University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

October 23, 2007 Berkeley Breakthrough on Financing Solar Energy and Energy Efficiency

Berkeley, CA – Berkeley is set to become the first city in the nation to allow property owners to pay for energy efficiency improvements and solar system installation as a long-term assessment on their individual property tax bill.

This makes energy efficiency + solar PV an investment at $0.0 - $0.10 cents/kWh

TIMELINE:

October 23: Berkeley, California, press release

October 30: State Attorney General & Treasurer to work for statewide version

November 1: US DoE pledges supportNovember 8: Approved by the city council, up for review as a statewide initiative

June 2008: operational date


Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)

29 states + Washington, DC, and counting

State Goal

PA: 18%¹ by 2020

NJ: 22.5% by 2021

CT: 10% by 2010

MA: 4% by 2009 + 1% annual increase

WI: requirement varies by utility; 10% by 2015 Goal

IA: 105 MW

MN: 10% by 2015 Goal +Xcel mandate of

1,125 MW wind by 2010

TX: 5,880 MW by 2015

*NM: 10% by 2011AZ: 15% by 2025

CA: 20% by 2010

NV: 20% by 2015

ME: 30% by 2000;10% by 2017 goal - new RE

State RPS

*MD: 7.5% by 2019

* Increased credit for solar or other customer-sited renewablesPA: 8% Tier I (renewables)

HI: 20% by 2020

RI: 15% by 2020

CO: 10% by 2015

DC: 11% by 2022

NY: 24% by 2013

MT: 15% by 2015

*DE: 10% by 2019

IL: 8% by 2013

VT: RE meets load growth by 2012

Solar water heating eligible

*WA: 15% by 2020


Solar & Distributed Generation

Provisions in RPS Policies

PA: 0.5% solar PV by 2020

TX: 500 MW non-wind

NM: triple credit for solar electric

AZ: 4.5% DG by 2025

NV: 1% solar by 2015;2.4 to 2.45 multiplier for PV

MD: double credit for solar electric

CO: 0.4% solar electric by 2015

DC: 0.386% solar electric by 2022

NY: 0.1542% customer-sited by 2013

DE: triple credit for solar electric

Solar water heating counts towards solar set-aside

WA: double credit for DG

DG: Distributed Generation

NJ: 2.12% solar electric by 2021

CA: 3,000 MW or more via SB1 & Million solar roofs

Plug-in Hybrids: Can they move rapidly to

scale?

Electricity Demand (additional) to supply a PHEV fleet in CA

Lemoine, Farrell & Kammen, Env. Research Letters (2008)


Today’s Biofuel

Industry

• Feedstocks largely food commodities

• Fuels are traditional substances

• Success depends on subsidies and mandates

• Small, but profitable and growing rapidly

Sources: US EIA, BP, RFA

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Billion gallons per year

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$ per gallon

Fuel Ethanol Production (left axis)

Petroleum Price (right axis)


An Alternative Fuel is Not Necessarily a Low-Carbon Fuel, but it

can be(California Executive Order S-7-01)

FT (Coal)

Gasoline (Shale)

Gasoline (Tar Sands)FT (Coal CCD)GasolineEthanol (Corn Coal)

Ethanol (Today)

Ethanol (Corn NG)

Biodiesel

Ethanol (Corn Biomass)

Ethanol (Cellulose)

Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1

lbs CO2/gal gasoline equivalent

FT (Coal)

Gasoline (Shale)

Gasoline (Tar Sands)

FT (Coal CCD)

Gasoline

Ethanol (Corn Coal)

Ethanol (Today)

Ethanol (Corn NG)

Biodiesel

Ethanol (Corn Biomass)

Ethanol (Cellulose)

Ethanol (Corn Biomass CCD)

Ethanol (Cellulose CCD)2007 standard

2020 standard


Land use, GHG emissions, and ‘carbon debt’

Fargione, et al, Science, Feb 8, 2008


Pro

babi

lity

(AR

I)

Average Daily Exposure (g / m3)

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

Charcoal

Ceramic Wood Stoves

3-Stone Fire

Illness Reduction Observed in Kenya(ARI = acute respiratory infection)

Ezzati and Kammen, The Lancet, 2001

All ARI

ALRI, Lower respiratoryInfections only


Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most economical cooking option

Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473. (1990); R. Ghanadan, unpublished (2004)

Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990

lowest cost option (1990)

19901990

1990

1990

1990

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Charcoal (improved)

Charcoal(unimproved)

Electricity

LPG Kerosene

Mon

thly

Coo

king

Cos

t(1

994

TS

h/m

onth

)

and 2004

lowest cost option (2004)

2004

20042004

2004

2004


Ethanol can Displace Gasoline Consumption in Africa (N. Dargouth and Kammen,

in prep.)• Using only post-harvest crop

losses as inputs (up to 50 percent of yields), biofuels can play a significant role

• Implications for poverty alleviation, job creation, urban health, and foreign currency savings

• Metrics for ecological and cultural sustainability must be part of the planning process

Source: FAO/IIASA 2002, EIA 2007, ICRISAT 2007


UNIV ERSIT Y O F CAL IF ORN IABERK ELE Y

REP ORT OF THERENEWAB LE AND APP ROPRIA TE EN ERGYLABORA TO RY

Putting Re newa bles t o Work:How Many J obs C an theClean Energy IndustryGenerate?

by

Daniel M. Ka mmenKa mal K apadiaMatthias Fripp

of theEnergy and Resource s Group &the Goldman Sc hool of Pu blic Po licy

APRIL 13, 2004

Study reviews:

• 13 studies of job creation

• 3 - 5 timesMore jobs per dollar invested in the renewables sector than in fossil fuels


http://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/eeworkshop/CPUC-new/summit.html


-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Green jobs created

(thousands of person years)

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Renewable energy generated (TWh)

Green Collar Job Creation

California

Pennsylvania

New YorkTexas

Illinois

Nevada

Other 18 states with an RPS

plus Federal RPS

Federal + state RPS yields +348,000 jobs in 2025


Green job creationMore renewables = more jobs

Construction, Manufacturing,

Installation

O&M and fuel

processing

Construction, Manufacturing and Installation

(person-yr/MWp)

Operation and Maintenance (jobs/MWp)

Fuel extraction and

processing (person-yrs/TWh)

PV 1 710 140 25 21% 32 0.3 0 1

PV 2 660 550 25 21% 30 1.0 0 3

Wind 1 50 30 25 35% 4 0.1 0 1

Wind 2 290 30 25 35% 22 0.1 0 2

Biomass - high estimate 50 280 25 85% 9 0.4 220 1

Biomass - low estimate 50 40 25 85% 9 0.04 40 1

Coal 30 80 40 80% 9 0.2 60 1

Gas 30 80 40 85% 9 0.1 70 4

[3] Greenpeace, 2001[4] Kammen, from REPP, 2001; CALPIRG, 2003; BLS, 2004

Sources[1] REPP, 2001[2] EWEA/Green-peace, 2003

Energy Technology

Jobs(total person-yrs/TWh)

Source of Numbers

Equipment lifetime (years)

Capacity Factor

Employment Components


若超级大院在能源、用水和垃圾处理方面能够实现自给自足，则中国基础设施和自然资源的需求将大幅降低 If SuperBlocks could be self-sufficient with respect to energy, water and waste, demand on China’s infrastructure and natural resources could be significantly reduced

能源energy

用水water

生态街区EcoBlock

垃圾waste


全面系统思考Whole Systems Thinking

风力

食物残渣

太阳

电力

电力

化粪池

人造湿地

活机器

绿色废物反渗透

紫外线消毒

先进的雨水处理

沉淀池沉淀池

雨水

城市饮用水

供应

电力

发电厂

厌氧消化

池

绿色

污泥和食物

污泥

食物残渣


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

R&D (billion 2002$s)

DefenseSpaceHealthEnergyGeneral ScienceOther

Federal R&D Investments, 1955 - 2004

Margolis & Kammen, Science, 1999


United States’ Public and Private Sector Energy Research and Development

Spending

Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,

Fall, 84 – 88.

-

2

4

6

8

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

R&D (2002 $b)

Public energy R&DPrivate energy R&D

Kammen and Nemet (2005) “Reversing the incredible shrinking energy R&D budget,” Issues in Science & Technology,

Fall, 84 – 88. And Nemet, dissertation, 2007

Patents and R&D Funding Correlated


VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT IN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Total Venture Capital Investment in Energy TechnologyCalifornia and the U.S.

1996-2006

CA

US

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Millions of Dollars ($2006 Inflation Adjusted)

Source: Nth Power

2006 VC Investment

2006 Share of Total US Investment

CA 884$ 36%MA 223$ 9%CO 149$ 6%MD 140$ 6%OH 125$ 5%IA 100$ 4%WA 95$ 4%IL 64$ 3%NJ 51$ 2%TX 49$ 2%


Boiling Water ReactorPressurized Water Reactor

Reactor Type

A 1: Westinghouse <700 MWe 2: Westinghouse 700–1000 MWW 3: Westinghouse >1000 MWf 4: Babcock & Wilcox^ 5: Combustion EngineeringG 6: GE <700 MWk 7: GE 700–1000 MW] 8: GE > 1000 MW

Reactor Cohort

0 25 50 75 100Cost Rank

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

0.10

0.11

0.12

0.13

0.14

Lifetime levelized electricity cost (2004$ per kWh)k] ] kk ]

]G

kkk

GG

]

]W ]

]]

]] ]

]]

k

] ]

Gk

k

Fitzpatrick

Susquehanna 1

Perry Columbia

River Bend

Fermi Hope Creek

Nine Mile Pt 2

Clinton

Shoreham

f f eAeAff

AA ^eWA e^ e W e^ ^

f W WWe e f e e

WeWWWWW ^f ^^ ^

eWW

Wf W

^W

W WW

eWWW

We

^W

W

e

W

Oconee 1 Oconee 2

Surry 1 Turkey Pt 3

Surry 2 Turkey Pt 4

Oconee 3

Arkansas 1

Diablo Canyon 2

Vogtle 2

Shearon Harris South Texas 1

South Texas 2 Diablo Canyon 1 Comanche Pk. 2

Rancho Seco Seabrook 1 Millstone 3 Watts Bar 1

Beaver Valley 2

Comanche Pk 1

Hultman, Koomey & Kammen (2007) ES&T

The Cost of Nuclear Power from the U. S. Civilian Reactor Fleet

Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory - rael.berkeley.eduCH4 H2S separation, then H2 & elemental sulfur separation

http://www.coolcalifornia.org AND http://bie.berkeley.edu

http://www.coolcalifornia.org/


Net CO 2 emiss ions (550pp m)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

CO2emissions and reductions/storages (M

-C)Fores tation

Energy conservation

Fuel switching

Bio mass

Solar

Wind

Hydro, geothermal

Nuclear

ECBM

Sea absorptions

Injection into aquifers

Injection into abandoned gas well

EOR

Emiss ions after reductions

CO 2 emiss ions in reference case

Net CO 2 emiss ions (550pp m)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

CO2emissions and reductions/storages (M

-C)Fores tation

Energy conservation

Fuel switching

Bio mass

Solar

Wind

Hydro, geothermal

Nuclear

ECBM

Sea absorptions

Injection into aquifers

Injection into abandoned gas well

EOR

Emiss ions after reductions

CO 2 emiss ions in reference case

CO2 Emission Reduction Effects by Technology

(550ppm)


Gasoline

Air travel

Gasoline

Auto manufacturing

Auto services

public trans.

airlinespublic trans.

Electricity

Naturalgas

Other fuels

Construction

Financingwater & sewage

electricitynatural gasother fuels

Meat

Eating out

Fruit & veg.

Snack food

cereals

DairyAlcohol & tobacco

Clothing

Household equip.

entertainment.cleaning supplies.

furniture.

healthcaregiving

education

Transportation Housing Food Goods Services

Summary of GHG Emissions for Typical U.S. Household (LEAPS Results) 50 Metric tons of CO2 equivalent gases

IndirectDirect44%

56%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Total

Energy Biosciences Institute

University of California, BerkeleyLawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign


Per Capita Electricity ConsumptionkWh/person

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

19601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004

US w/out Cal and NY

US without Cal

United States

New York

California

Savings possible equal to total U. S. energy imports

Savings:Energy, $, carbon

Danishaverage

renewable and appropriate energy laboratory - rael.berkeley.edu science and policy for deep cuts in...

Documents

financing solar energy

energy efficiency solar

solar electricco

solar electricaz

solar roofsplug

ca berkeley

energy efficiencyberkeley

solar setasidewa