making cities sustainable for alliurd.berkeley.edu/reducing-inequality/kammen-making... · 2015. 3....
TRANSCRIPT
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Daniel Kammen
Professor of EnergyEnergy and Resources Group | Goldman School of Public Policy
Founding Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy LaboratoryUniversity of California, Berkeley
Reducing Inequality in a Sustainable World,Berkeley, California - March 5, 2015
Making Cities Sustainable for All
http://rael.berkeley.edu
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IPCC AR5 (2014): Climate Projections and Associated Risks
2°C “Guardrail“
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3Professor D. M. Kammen | rael.berkeley.edu/switch
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Clean Energy Transition: Impacts Across Scales
Climate protection depends on a transition to clean energy by mid-Century … what pathways exist?
The California Rim Fire
Energy access is lacking for two billion people worldwide
… can clean energy accelerate access?
Energy access in Nairobi
Job creation, air quality, and health benefits of the transition
… can they also promote equity?
Municipal solar in San Fran.
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Quantitative Assessments: Energy and Human Development
Literacy
Mortality(Children)
Poverty
Education
Mortality(Infants)
Sanitation
Correlation, not causation, but warrants deeper investigation
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Energy Access, Economic Opportunityand Quality of Life
Alstone, Gerhenson, and Kammen, Nature Climate Change, in press
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Developing Sustainable Energy Plans
Western North America
5/2012
Chile4/2014 East
African,Seeking funding & data
India, Seeking funding
China, 1/2015
Malaysian Borneo1/2013
Kosovo3/2013
& Southern Europe
(9/2015?)Nicaragua:3/2015
http://rael.berkeley.edu/switch
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Can we develop viable clean energy plans?
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http://rael.berkeley.edu 9
The California Strategy to reduce emissionsThe California framework to reduce emissions
First: return to
1990 levels by
2020(-20% from peak)
Then:-80%
by 2050
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CA Action Plan to 2020 and 2050
http://rael.berkeley.edu
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11Professor D. M. Kammen | rael.berkeley.edu/switch
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Compressed AirSodium Sulfur Battery
Sto
rage
Pumped Hydro
Carbon Capture and Sequestration
Transmission AC
DC
Re
new
able
Ge
ne
rati
on
Co
nve
nti
on
al G
en
era
tio
n
SWITCH Modeling Framework to Explore Decarbonization Paths
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Western North American (WECC) Electricity Mix, 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Reference
SunShot
Low-CostBaeries
SunShotandLow-CostBaeries
High-PriceNaturalGas
MethaneLeakage
NuclearandCCS
LimitedEfficiency
High-CostTransmission
LimitedHydro
Load-Shiing
Load-ShiingandFlexibleEVCharging
NoCSP6hStorage
SolarPV100GW
Limit
2020SystemElectricityProducon(TW
h)
Nuclear Biopower Coal CoalCCS Hydro Gas GasCCS Geothermal SolarPV CSP6hStorage Wind
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WECC Electricity Mix, 2050
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
Reference
SunShot
Low-CostBaeries
SunShotandLow-CostBaeries
High-PriceNaturalGas
MethaneLeakage
NuclearandCCS
LimitedEfficiency
High-CostTransmission
LimitedHydro
Load-Shiing
Load-ShiingandFlexibleEVCharging
NoCSP6hStorage
SolarPV100GW
Limit
2050SystemElectricityProducon(TW
h)
Nuclear Biopower Coal CoalCCS Hydro Gas GasCCS Geothermal SolarPV CSP6hStorage Wind
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SWITCH-WECC80% decarbonized
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SWITCH-WECC: 80% decarbonized
20,000
Biopower
Coal
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Coal
Geothermal
Solar_PV
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
20,000
Biopower
Coal_CCS
Gas
Gas_CCS
Geothermal
Nuclear
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15GW
20,000
Biopower
Coal_CCS
Gas
Gas_CCS
Geothermal
Nuclear
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15GW
AverageGenera on(GW)
AverageTransmission(GW)
2020 2030
2040 2050
20,000
Biopower
Gas
Geothermal
Solar_PV
CSP_6h_TES
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
< 1 GW
1-2.5 GW
2.5-5 GW
5-10 GW
10-15 GW
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SWITCH-WECC: Planning Vital to Cost Management
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
2020 2030 2040 2050
AverageCostofPower(20
14$/MWh)
AllScenariosRange
ReferenceScenario
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• Storage almost exclusively moves solar to the night
• Geothermal only remaining substantial baseload
SWITCH-WECC Example Dispatch in 2050:
Flexibility and variable renewables dominate
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
193111821019311182101931118210171 918210171 91821018210171 918210171 918210171 9171 91821018210171 919311182101821019311WEC
CElectricityDispa
tchin2050(GW)
HourofDay(PST)
Nuclear Geothermal Biopower Coal
CoalCCS Gas(baseload) GasCCS Gas(intermediate)
Gas(peaker) Storage(discharging) Hydro(non-pumped) Solar
Wind Storage(charging) Demand
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
18
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US – China Climate Accord, October 2014
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SWITCH-China (2050)
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12 0 12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
GW
nuclear coal coal ccs gas
gas ccs solar storage-discharge hydro
wind storage-charge system load
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Can we make clean energy the first option for development?
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Fig.3
10/23/2013 22
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Pay-as you go solar + advanced batteries & lights
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Pay-as you go solar + advanced batteries & lights
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Product Quality for for those Off-grid
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Opportunities in Energy Access
$2+ Trillion US profits are “parked” overseas
Transformative opportunities forResearch, philanthropy andbusiness development
☑︎ Apple $138B Cisco $48B
☑︎ GE $110B ☑︎ Google $48B
☑︎Microsoft $93B ☑︎ HP $38B
☑︎ IBM $52B ☑︎ Pepsi $34B
☑︎ Johnson & Johnson $50B ☑︎ Oracle $33B
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Fig.3SOM
10/23/2013 27
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Can we make clean energy the first option for urban and community
development?
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http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/mapsWe have seen access rate up to 100,000/day
What do they do first?They check their own community …
& compare to neighbors
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
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Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps
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New York San FranciscoBay Area
Chicago
Total
Household GHG emissions in four metro regions
Dallas
Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
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Household carbon footprints in East Coast Metropolitan Areas
41Jones and Kammen (2014) ES&T, 48 (2), 895 – 902.
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Cities Taking the 2014 Climate Challenge
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Reducing InequalityGreen jobs have been a powerful, but concentrated clean energy benefit
• Expand the data availability and the programs to grow jobs with clean energy (rael.berkeley.edu/greenjobs)
• Promote programs that finance clean energy for all income groups (e.g. Property Assessed Clean Energy for All)