it is all about jobs! - real estate forums · nov. ‘10 oct. ‘11 source: statistics canada and...
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It Is All About Jobs!
Oct. ‘11
Nov. ‘10
Oct. ‘11
Source: Statistics Canada and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Canada “An Oasis of Stability”
Office – 8.7%Industrial – 5.3%
CANADA Office – 8.0%Industrial – 7.1%
Office – 17.6%Industrial 10 7%
Office – 20.5%Industrial – 12.0% Office – 13.4%
Industrial 13 6%USA
Industrial – 10.7%
Office – 19.5%Industrial 14 6%
Industrial – 13.6%
Industrial – 14.6%
Source: CBRE Limited
Pockets of Growth Across North America
4 5%
4.0%
4.5%
s
3.0%
3.5%
ext F
ive Y
ears
2.0%
2.5%
b G
rowt
h, N
e
1.0%
1.5%
e Ann
ualJ
ob
0.0%
0.5%
Aver
age
-0.5%-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Job Growthover the Last Year
Source: CBRE Limited, Conference Board of Canada, Moody’s Analytics
U.S. Markets Canadian Markets
The Capital Markets Are Open For BusinessREIT & REOC Issuance
Over $5.8 billion raised in 2011 YTD
Source: RBC Capital Markets, Canaccord Genuity Corp.
Large Cap REITs vs S&P/TSX
8.0%Average Yield
4.0%
6.0%
0.0%
2.0%
- 4.0%
- 2.0%
Shopping Centre REITs
Apartment REITs Diversified Commercial REITs
S&P/ TSX Return (Y/ Y)
Source: CIBC World Markets, CBRE Limited
Canadian Investment Transactions ($B)
$35.0
$25.0
$30.0
$15.0
$20.0
$ B
illio
ns
$5.0
$10.0
$
$0.02006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Actual Volume Year-End Projection
Source: CBRE Limited, RealNet Canada, RealTrack Inc.
Who Bought in 2011 YTD? (Incl Hotel & ICI)
Buyers Office Industrial Retail Multi-Res
ICI-Land Hotel TotalRes Land
Private/Syndicates 20.4% 53.7% 41.0% 67.7% 95.9% 100.0% 44.3%
Foreign 2.6% 3.6% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1%
Pension Fund 7.8% 3.9% 30.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1%
Institutions 6.1% 13.3% 1.6% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 4.8%
REITs/REOCs 59.3% 22.7% 27.3% 27.5% 2.5% 0.0% 35.0%
Private Equity 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 1.7%
Source: CBRE Limited/RealNet Canada
Moderate Job Growth Hinders Office Demand
Source: CBRE-EA Canada Office Outlook XL, Summer 2011
Canadian Office Markets
Vacancy (y/y)
Source: CBRE Limited
Most Markets Below Historical Average Office Vacancy
16
12
14
8
10
Rate
s (%
)
4
6
Vaca
ncy
R
0
2
Vancouver Ca lgary Edmonton Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa Montrea l Ha lifax
3Q2011 10 Year Average
Source: CBRE-EA Canada Office Outlook
Industrial - Canada Outperforms!
14%
16%Forecast
10%
12%
14%
ty R
ate
6%
8%
10%
Avai
labi
li
2%
4%
6%
0%
2%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Canada US
Source: CBRE-EA Canada Industrial Outlook XL, Summer 2011
Canadian Industrial Markets
200 Availability (y/y)
100
bps)
- 100
0
s Poi
nts
(b
300
- 200Basi
s
- 300
Source: CBRE Limited
Industrial Availability Rates Below Historical Average
12
10
%)
6
8
ty R
ates
(%
4
Ava
ilabi
lit
0
2
A
0Vancouver Ca lgary Edmonton Winnipeg Toronto Ottawa Montrea l Ha lifax
3Q2011 10 Year Average
Source: CBRE Limited
Across Asset Classes, North America Priced WellCap Rates, %
8.5
9.0p ,
8.0
7.0
7.5
EMEA
Americas
6.5
Asia Pacific
Global
5.5
6.0
5.0
003.
1
003.
3
004.
1
004.
3
005.
1
005.
3
006.
1
006.
3
007.
1
007.
3
008.
1
008.
3
009.
1
009.
3
010.
1
010.
3
011.
1
011.
3
Source: CBRE Limited, Real Capital Analytics
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Non-European buyers invested €24 billion in Europe in 2010-H1 2011
Cross border capital flows, 2010 and H1 2011Non European buyers invested €24 billion in Europe in 2010 H1 2011
Central London took by far the largest share of interest – 39% of the total
France (mainly Paris) and a number of German markets also featured fairly strongly.
London €9.4 bnParis €1.9 bnBerlin €0.8 bnM €0 8 b
North America
€ 13 1 bn Moscow €0.8 bnFrankfurt €0.7 bn
€ 13.1 bn
Asia
€ 5.0 bnMiddle East
Australia
Middle East€4.2 bn
€ 0.9 bn
Source: CBRE, PropertyData, KTI
Cap Rates Hit 2007 Levels – Going Lower?
11%
10%
8%
9%
7%
6%
5%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Office - CBD A Industrial - A & B Retail - Neighbourhood Multi-Res - B
Source: CBRE Limited