irrv2015 - progress on welfare reform by deven ghelani

Deven Ghelani

IRRV ANNUAL CONFERENCEProgress on Welfare Reform

Policy in Practice

Do you know the impact that welfare reform is having on

each of your residents?

www.policyinpractice.co.uk

Why is this important?


• Members want to know

• Decide on your local support scheme

• Contacting residents (letter, face to face)

• Obligation to protect the vulnerable

Today’s Agenda

1. Introduction

2. The challenge for local authorities

3. A person-centred impact assessment

4. The outcomes for residents

5. The software that makes it happen

6. Next Steps


We make the welfare system simple to understand, so

people can make the decisions that are right for them


About Policy in Practice

The Challenge for Local Authorities


Challenge: Leeds City Council

www.policyinpractice.co.ukwww.policyinpractice.co.uk

“I can’t see whether the people being clobbered by reductions in council tax support, or under-occupation are the same people that have been clobbered by other reforms.”

Steve Carey, Leeds City Council

The combined impact on households is typically changing, complex and

confusing


Your organisation:

• Partner among other stakeholders• May be a Local Authority or a Social Landlord• Implemented 2013 Welfare Reforms• Universal Credit is live or imminent• Residents face further reductions in support


Reduced budgets to deliver support now and

in the future


Challenge: Birmingham City Council

www.policyinpractice.co.ukwww.policyinpractice.co.uk

“We want the council to move beyond sticking plaster solutions.

If we can promote work and independence by understanding who is impacted by welfare reforms and working closely with partners, we will have more resources available for people that still need our support.

We have an obligation to protect and support the most vulnerable.”

Chris Gibbs, Birmingham City Council

How are you making decisions about who

receives what support?


A Person Centred Impact Assessment

data + software = actionable insights


Policy in Practice’s Approach


1. Use local data and insights to inform better decision makingYour SHBE data

Our Universal Benefit Calculator

A detailed impact assessment - who is impacted and how?

2. See the impact of specific and cumulative reforms at an aggregate and household level

3. Inform targeted and tailored local welfare support

Rich data for each householdHousehold details Under-Occupation Local Housing Allowance Council Tax Support

• Reference number• Household Type• Tenure• Economic status• Earnings• Savings

• Under occupied (y/n)

• Under occupied (amount £)

• LHA cap (y/n)• LHA cap (amount £)

• Not protected (y/n)• Not protected (amount £)

Benefit Cap at £26k Benefit Cap at £20k Tax Credit Changes Other

• Could get WTC (y/n)

• Receiving DLA (y/n)

• Benefit cap 26k (y/n)• Amount (£)



• Benefit cap 20k (y/n)

• Amount (£)

• Reduced (y/n)• Reduced amount (£)

• Earnings below NMW(y/n)• Pay to stay (y/n)• Free school meal eligibility

Universal Credit Support Cumulative Impact Barriers to work

• Needs protection (y/n)• Needs protection (£)• In work conditionality (y/n)• Min income floor (y/n)

• DHP (£/no)• CTRS (£/no)

• Income Reduction 2015 (£)• Impact 2015 (no/l/m/h)• Income Reduction 2016 (£)• Impact 2016 (no/l/m/h)

• Disability (0/1/2)• Caring responsibilities (0/2)• Parenting

responsibilities(0/1/2)• Barriers to work

(low/medium/high)


benefit cap

Under-occupying LHA cap

Council Tax Reduction

CTRS

Tax Credit cuts

lower UC higher UC Better off in Work

# of households affected by multiple reforms

No impact 1 reform

2 reforms

AA1 0 0 7 20 TBC 9 16 32 8 21 7AA4 1 0 59 38 TBC 21 25 55 10 44 25AA11 1 19 45 99 TBC 68 61 143 47 113 47AA16 0 0 0 0 TBC 0 1 1 1 0 0AB1 0 16 25 74 TBC 30 46 99 36 70 34AB2 2 39 89 224 TBC 37 123 246 109 189 96AB3 0 31 41 140 TBC 38 88 134 78 128 55AB4 0 75 166 341 TBC 106 190 456 148 327 163AB5 3 129 73 336 TBC 136 180 432 150 318 155AB6 14 266 630 1355 TBC 406 899 1456 834 1354 575AB7 17 629 346 1839 TBC 780 1038 2235 822 1636 838AB8 43 442 1083 2662 TBC 1140 1306 2786 912 2119 1346AB9 51 968 979 3466 TBC 1481 1614 3103 1411 3085 1676

Who has been impacted by reforms to date?

What will be the impact of

Universal Credit?

Who has been hit by multiple reforms?

The depth of our analysis goes even deeper, to household level

Explain a Complex Picture to Cabinet


Tax Credit cuts?

Preliminary findings paint a stark picture


69% of households are of Working age

29%

20%

5%

33%

13%

In workNot in workNot in work, carerNot in work, disabledNot in work, lone parent


The Summer Budget will double the impact of welfare reform on residents

£9.73 £18.44


Four times as many household will face a ‘high’ impact


Specific reforms have differentimpacts


If you had these insights too, what

would you do differently?


A lower Benefit Cap will affect 10x as many households

756

7,285

At £26,000 At £20,000


Recommendations:Check exemptions on specific households, for example:• Households in receipt of ESA

may be in the support group• Children in receipt of DLA• They or their partner may be in

work, and eligible for tax credits.

Reduction of the Benefit CapWeekly benefit cap amount

£0-20 £21-40 £41-60 £61-80 £81-100 £101-150

£151-200

£201-300

£301+

169 161 115 85 76 114 23 12 1

2263

951 955756

10031153

2003 1

£26k £20k

Weekly Benefit Cap Amount

Num

ber o

f Cas

es

Recommendation:Take proactive steps• Focus intensive outreach and

support on those most severely impacted by a lower benefit cap

Targeted employment support


Recommendations:• 4,808 households have a high welfare reform impact, but low barriers to work.• Supporting these households into work could help to alleviate financial hardship

for those families and for the council.

Future Reforms: Tax Credits


90% of households that will see a reduction to their tax credits have children. The largest proportion of households affected live in the private rented sector.

Tax Credit changes affect mostly those in receipt of Working Tax Credit. Households affected will lose £24 per week on average.

Recommendation: • Take proactive steps to broaden your support offer• Reach out to households less well known to the council, who will be affected

Future Reforms: Universal Credit


Recommendations: • Take proactive steps to support people who will be better off in work, and working

more, while taking different actions to help those negatively impacted.• Take action to help those already in arrears.

ESA WRAG premium to be removed for new claimants• 5,852 households in the Work Related Activity Group would lose the WRAG

premium, worth £29.05 per week

Changes affecting young people• 85% of HB recipients aged 18-21 are out of work and may lose automatic

entitlement to HB• 4,042 young people aged 18-21 will be expected to ‘earn or learn’ (includes non-

dependants)

The minimum income floor affects most self-employed people• 65% of self-employed households have earning below the Minimum Income Floor

in Birmingham.

The third child rule• 15,598 working-age households have two children. These households would not

be eligible for additional support through tax credits if they had a third child after April 2016.

Other reforms


How are others using this?

Proactive steps can mitigate the impact


Birmingham City Council•Identify households most vulnerable to welfare reforms, and map local support onto local needs

North Hertfordshire Council•Accurately forecast the cost of their council tax reduction scheme•Helped them to eliminate a £500,000 underspend

Leeds City Council •Develop an innovative approach to local support, introducing targeted conditionality, and justify this decision to cabinet

Melton Council•Use household level analysis on the most heavily impacted households, and combine with strategic intervention activity

Newcastle City Council and Your Homes Newcastle•Detailed impact assessment now, and the start of a big data hub to track the impact of reforms, effectiveness of interventions

JSAChild Tax

Credit

ESAHousing Benefit

Working Tax CreditIncome Support

Engage people and change behaviour


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E0n3j_Hd6eE

Residents understand and feel empowered

Staff have more time to focus on outcomes

You make better use of ever scarce resources


What outcomes would you like to achieve?

What outcomes would you like to achieve?


Next ActionsYou can:• Request an information sheet on our software and

our impact assessment service• Request a case study, read the Benefit Cap White

Paper or ask to speak to one of our clients• Request a sample impact assessment report• Contact [email protected] to enquire on

behalf of your local authority


mailto:[email protected]

Deven [email protected]

07863 560677@deven_ghelani

Thank you


Timeframes: six to eight weeksKick off meeting:• We agree upon the core deliverables, and outcomes you are hoping to achieve.Data requirements: • We can send you a template data sharing agreement that has worked well for

our clients.• A detailed list of data requirements from your SHBE and CTRS records.Review preliminary findings:• We want you to get maximum value from the analysisFinal report:• We can deliver a final presentation in person to your project board

• You can request a report• If you want more information, or talk about your own particular circumstances


Rich data for each householdHousehold details Under-Occupation Local Housing Allowance Council Tax Support

• Reference number• Household Type• Tenure• Economic status• Earnings• Savings

• Under occupied (y/n)

• Under occupied (amount £)

• LHA cap (y/n)• LHA cap (amount £)

• Not protected (y/n)• Not protected (amount £)

Benefit Cap at £26k Benefit Cap at £20k Tax Credit Changes Other



• Benefit cap 26k (y/n)• Amount (£)



• Benefit cap 20k (y/n)

• Amount (£)

• Reduced (y/n)• Reduced amount (£)

• Earnings below NMW(y/n)• Pay to stay (y/n)• Free school meal eligibility

Universal Credit Support Cumulative Impact Barriers to work

• Needs protection (y/n)• Needs protection (£)• In work conditionality (y/n)• Min income floor (y/n)

• DHP (£/no)• CTRS (£/no)

• Income Reduction 2015 (£)• Impact 2015 (no/l/m/h)• Income Reduction 2016 (£)• Impact 2016 (no/l/m/h)

• Disability (0/1/2)• Caring responsibilities (0/2)• Parenting

responsibilities(0/1/2)• Barriers to work

(low/medium/high)


What have we learned?• Local Authorities face difficult choices

– £12bn of cuts with reforms aimed at changing behaviour.– The combined impact on households is changing, complex and confusing.

• The risk is that households won't get the right support– Councils need to better co-ordinate support with partners. – This includes financial support and support toward independence.– Without better co-ordination, and support into employment, there won't be enough

support available to go around.– This will cost the council and taxpayers through impacts on other services.

• Policy in Practice has developed an approach that will help you to– Better co-ordinate support and prepare for reforms– Explain a complex picture, both to cabinet and to the end user– target and tailor support effectively – Have a tangible and measured impact on behaviour


Software Feedback

I found the calculator to be very easy to use, very basic visual results which were easy to interpret. It is very quick to use so it was

not taking up all our time during the meeting it left more time to discuss the results with the customer.

I will definitely be using this in the future, a very good tool to have.

I think the calculator is brilliant and really easy to use, it can email and print out calculations and the comparison was fab

The best reaction I got was a customer that stated "I am definitely getting a job now“.

irrv2015 - progress on welfare reform by deven ghelani

Government & Nonprofit