international conference on climate change...

International Conference on Climate Change Impacts

and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security

21-22 November 2012SEARCA, College

Los Baños, LagunaPhilippines

Post-conference FieldtripSouthern Tagalog Region23 November 2012

Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Studyand Research in Agriculture (SEARCA)SEARCA, College, Los BañosLaguna 4031 PhilippinesTel.: (+63 49) 536 2361; 536 2363; 536 2365 to 67; 536 2290Fax: (+63 49) 536 7097; 536 2283Email: [email protected]: www.searca.org; www.climatechange.searca.org

University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB)Interdisciplinary Program on Climate Change (IdPCC)College, Los BañosLaguna 4031 PhilippinesTel.: (+63 49) 536 2251; 536 2836Fax: (+63 49) 536 2251Email: [email protected]; [email protected] [email protected]: www.uplb.edu.ph

iii21-22 November 2012 | SEARCA, College, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines

About the Conference

Rationale

Climate change and climate variability are among the top issues facing governments today. They pose real threats to the environment, to food production and to human systems specifically agricultural production, biodiversity, and health, among others (IPCC, 2007). Extreme climatic events, such as frequent and strong typhoons, prolonged wet and dry seasons, and increased incidence of disease outbreaks affect the sustainability of agricultural production systems, leading to food and livelihood shortages.

Growing evidence of climate change around the world and in Southeast Asia in particular leave all sectors with no choice but to act to ensure sustainability of lifelines that include natural systems and food resources, rural livelihoods, and human resources. The Southeast Asian region is therefore challenged to increase its capacities and expertise to attain the set objectives of the Millennium Development Goals. However, much of research on climate change is conducted in fragmentary fashion in different countries by discipline and sector. This leaves much opportunity for developing multisectoral / multidisciplinary approaches. It is in this regard that the conference aims to provide a venue for promoting integrative partnerships toward convergence of ideas for holistic solutions to reduce the impacts of climate change on the region’s food, environmental, nutritional and health security.

1. Exchange state-of-the-art knowledge on climate change science, adaptation strategies, disaster risk reduction, planning and management, and vulnerability and impact assessment tools, in the context of climate change, among regional stakeholders specifically in the agriculture and environment sectors;

2. Gather scientific information and experiences into an integrative body of knowledge in order to identify knowledge gaps and common, urgent and emergent issues related to food and environmental security in Southeast Asia;

3. Identify location-specific knowledge and adaptation strategies that may be upscaled to other regions; and

4. Promote partnerships and linkages among different sectors for collaborative activities on climate change adaptation.

Objectives

iv International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security

About the Conference

Conference Scope

• Effects and impacts of climate change on food and environmental security issues, including state-of-the art knowledge and assessment tools such as vulnerability and impact assessments and risk characterization and analysis

• Institutional (policy, governance, culture) and economic aspects of climate change science and adaptation

• Country and regional collaborative experiences for climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction

• Other climate change-related topics relevant to the conference theme

Participants

About 150 conference participants including researchers, academicians, policy makers and planners, development workers, and other professionals from different international, government, non-government and academic organizations

Partners

Conference organizers include the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) and the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB). The Asia-Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) provides support from the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) in Japan.

Additional sponsors include the Food Security Center (FSC) of the University of Hohenheim (UHOH) and German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD); Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN); Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA), and the Philippines Climate Change Commission (CCC) as supported by the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ).

In addition, knowledge partners include the Nanyang Technological University Rajaratnam School of International Studies-Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies (NTU RSIS-CNTS), International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), University of Tokyo, and Philippine Climate Change Adaptation Project (PhilCCAP).

Conference Programme

Day 1

21 NovTIME ACTIVITY SPEAKERS

7:30 am Registration SEARCA Front Lobby

8:30 Opening ProgramSEARCA DL Umali Auditorium

Chair: Dr. Maria Celeste H. Cadiz Program Head for Knowledge Management, SEARCA

8:30 Messages Dr. Gil C. Saguiguit Jr.Director, SEARCA

Dr. Rex Victor O. CruzChancellor University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) Atty. Mary Anne Lucille SeringVice-Chair, Climate Change Commission

9:15 Keynote SpeechFood Security and Climate Change Impacts on Urban-Rural Linkages

Dr. Paul S. TengDean of Graduate Studies and Professional LearningNational Institute of Education (NIE) Senior Fellow on Food SecurityCenter for Non-traditional Security Studies S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

9:35 Conference Overview Dr. Felino P. LansiganCo-chair, UPLB Interdisciplinary Program on Climate Change (UPLB IdPCC)

Professor, UPLB

9:50 Opening of Poster Exhibit(Drilon Hall Lobby, 3rd Floor)

Dr. Mariliza V. TicsayUnit Head, Knowledge Resources, SEARCA

10:00 Group Photo

10:15 Coffee/Tea

10:30 PLENARY 1 - Status, Prospects, and Practices on Climate Change Adaptation in AgricultureSEARCA DL Umali Auditorium

Chair: Dr. Felino P. LansiganIdPCC Co-chair and Professor of Statistics, UPLBLead Author, Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Rapporteur: Dr. Serlie B. JamiasPublic Relations Director, Office of the Chancellor (OC)Associate Professor of Development Communication, UPLB

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Semi-Arid Tropics

Dr. William D. DarDirector General, International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT)

Agricultural Adaptation to Climatic Change at the Grassroots Level and Use of Advances in Science and Technology

Dr. Seishi NinomiyaProfessorInstitute for Sustainable Agro-ecosystem ServicesUniversity of Tokyo, Japan

11:45 Open Forum

12:15 pm Lunch


Day 1

21 Nov TIME ACTIVITY SPEAKERS

Parallel Sessions 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY

1:30 pm Session 1A (SEARCA DL Umali Auditorium)Chair: Dr. Agnes C. Rola, Dean and Professor, College of Public Affairs and Development (CPAf), UPLBCo-chair: Ms. Dulce D. Elazegui, University Researcher, UPLB CPAfRapporteur: Mr. Edwin R. Abucay, Assistant Professor, College of Human Ecology (CHE), UPLB

Unavoidable Global Warming Commitment and Its Food Security, Impacts and Risks, Implications Focused on South East Asia

Dr. Peter CarterClimate Emergency Institute, Canada

An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in Ethiopia

Mr. Zerihun G. KelborePhD Candidate, University of Trento, Via Verdi, Italy

Climate Changes in Cambodia, Philippines and Vietnam: A Vulnerability Analysis at Commune and Household Levels

Dr. Bui Dung TheDirector, Office of Science-Technology, International Cooperation and Postgraduate Education, College of Economics, Hue University, Vietnam

Carbon Sequestration and Climate Change Impact on the Yield of Bagras (Eucalyptus deglupta Blume) in Corn-based Boundary Planting Agroforestry System in Northern Mindanao, Philippines

Mr. Richmund A. PalmaAssistant ProfessorMisamis Oriental State College of Agriculture and Technology, Philippines

Session 1B (SEARCA Drilon Hall)Chair: Dr. Severino S. Capitan, Director, Sentro ng Wikang Filipino and Professor of Animal Science,

College of Agriculture (CA), UPLBCo-chair: Dr. Amparo M. Wagan, University Extension Specialist, UPLB CARapporteur: Dr. Rico C. Ancog, Assistant Professor, School of Environmental Science and Management (SESAM), UPLB

Climate-Driven Variations in Small Pelagic Fisheries Production in Northern Zamboanga and Bohol Sea: Potential Impact, Vulnerability, and Local Adaptive Capacity

Dr. Asuncion B. De Guzman Professor, Mindanao State University at NaawanPhilippines

Food Insecurity and Climate Change in Nigeria: How Vulnerable are the Rural Farmers?

Dr. Samuel O. AwoniyiLecturer, Joseph Ayo Babalola University, Nigeria

Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity of Pastoral Communities under Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

Dr. Srijana Joshi Rijal Consultant, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), Nepal

Status of Native Forest Managed by Mataqali under Anthropogenic Pressure - A Case From Sote Village, Nukurua, Tailevu, The Fiji Islands

Mr. Maika TabukovuLecturer, Fiji National University, Fiji Islands

Flooding Vulnerability of the Towns of Mabitac, and Santa Maria, Laguna, Philippines

Dr. Romeo PatiAssociate Professor, University of Rizal System, Philippines

Session 1C (Sam-Arng Srinilta Room)Chair: Dr. Jose Nestor M. Garcia, University Researcher, UPLB CACo-chair: Dr. Ravindra C. Joshi, Consultant, Ministry of Primary Industries (Agriculture), Fiji IslandsRapporteur: Engr. Joan Pauline P. Talubo, Assistant Professor, UPLB CHE, and

Ms. Ma. Rowena Beatriz Q. Inzon, MS Student, UPLB SESAM

Projected Impact of Downscaled Climate Scenarios on Rice Production in Two Selected Provinces in the Philippines

Dr. Linda M. PeñalbaProfessor, UPLB, Philippines

Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in Vietnam Mr. Ngo Duc Minh PhD Research Scholar, International Rice Research institute

Measuring the Impact of La Niña on Food and Nutrition Security in Timor Leste

Mr. Agustinho da Costa XimenesNational Consultant for Food Security Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, Timor Leste

Climate Change Implications to Food Security and Livelihood of Small-Scale Farmers in Lao PDR`

Dr. Outhai SoukkhyDeputy Director, Nothern Agriculture and Forestry College, Lao PDR

3:00 Coffee/Tea


Day 1


Parallel Sessions 2: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND AGRICULTURE

3:30 pm Session 2A (SEARCA DL Umali Auditorium)Chair: Dr. Gloria Luz M. Nelson, Professor, College of Arts and Sciences (CAS), UPLB Co-chair: Prof. Rosario V. Tatlonghari, Assistant Professor, College of Development Communication (CDC), UPLBRapporteur: Dr. Serlie B. Jamias, Public Relations Director, UPLB OC, and Associate Professor, UPLB CDC

Livelihood Capacity and Adaptive Strategies to Climate Change of Rice-Based Farming Households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Dr. Le Cahn DungHead, Department of Social Economic and Policy StudyMekong Delta Development Research Institute Can Tho University, Vietnam

Community-Based Climate Change Adaptation in Contiguous Agricultural Ecosystems-Experiences from the Cordillera Region in the Philippines

Dr. Roberto C. Sandoval Jr.Climate Change and Food Security Specialist Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Philippines

Successful Local Food Production Project in Solomon Islands: The Blue Print for the Pacific Islands Countries and Territories

Dr. Ravindra C. JoshiConsultant, Ministry of Primary Industries (Agriculture) Fiji Islands

Mitigating the Negative Impact of Climate Change on Field Crop Production

Dr. Medhat Mekhail TawfikProfessor of Agronomy, National Research Centre, Egypt

Session 2B (SEARCA Drilon Hall)Chair: Dr. Leonardo M. Florece, Dean and Professor, UPLB SESAMCo-chair: Dr. Decibel F. Eslava, Associate Professor, UPLB SESAMRapporteur: Prof. Ma. Theresa M. Talavera, Director and Assistant Professor,

Institute of Human Nutrition and Food (IHNF), UPLB CHE

Low Delta Cropping and Micro Irrigation Techniques as Adaptation Measures of Climate Change in Northern Balochistan, Pakistan

Dr. Faiz Mohammad KakarMember, Board of Directors Centre for Research and Development (CRD), Pakistan

Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability of Farming Households of Dumangas, Iloilo, Philippines

Dr. Gay D. DefiestaAssistant Professor University of the Philippines Visayas (UPV), Philippines

A Shift in the Mycotoxin Profile in Costa Rica under Climate Change – A Case Study on Mycotoxigenic Fusarium proliferatum in Rice (Oryza sativa)

Dr. Adriana Murillo-WilliamsProfessor, University of Costa Rica

Sustainable Ancient Water Management and Resilience to Climate Change in Sri Lanka

Dr. Ranjana U. K. PiyadasaSenior Lecturer, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka

Session 2C (Sam-Arng Srinilta Room)Chair: Prof. Ma. Emilinda T. Mendoza, Assistant Professor, College of Human Ecology (CHE), UPLBCo-chair: Dr. Rio John T. Ducusin, Chair and Professor, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences,

College of Veterinary Medicine (CVM) UPLBRapporteur: Mr. Efraim D. Roxas, Instructor, UPLB CHE

Increasing Rice Productivity in Submergence-Prone Areas Vulnerable to Climate Change in South East Asia

Dr. Romeo V. LabiosUniversity ResearcherUPLB CA, Philippines

Response of Agro-Pastoral Indigenous Communities to the Cascading Effects of Climate Change-Studies from Sikkim, Eastern Himalayas, India

Mr. Tenzing IngtyPhD Student, Regional Office for the Himalayas/ Northeast India, Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment

Documenting and Promoting Indigenous Agricultural Knowledge and Climate Change Adaptation in Selected Areas in the Philippines: Toward Enhancing Community-Level Food Security

Dr. Lucille Elna P. De GuzmanUniversity Researcher UPLB CA, Philippines

5:20 End of Day 1

6:30 Cocktails and Dinner


Day 2


Parallel Sessions 3: INSTITUTIONAL AND ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION

8:30 am Session 3A (SEARCA DL Umali Auditorium)Chair: Dr. Margaret M. Calderon, Professor, College of Forestry and Natural Resources (CFNR),

and Assistant to the Vice Chancellor for Community Affairs, UPLBCo-chair: Dr. Srijana Joshi Rijal, Consultant, ICIMODRapporteur: Prof. Devralin T. Lagos, Assistant Professor, UPLB CHE

Building Climate Resilient Communities through Community Based Adaptation Planning and Action: Some Empirical Evidences from Nepal

Dr. Dharam UpretyForestry and Climate Change Manager Multi Stakeholders Forestry Programme, Nepal

Attitudes towards Flooding Risks in Vietnam: Implications for Insurance

Dr. Pham Khanh Nam Senior Economist, EEPSEA andDeputy Dean, Faculty of Development Economics, University of Economics, Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam

Strengthening Capability of State Universities on Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance their Role in Climate Change Adaptation for Agriculture

Dr. Amparo M. WaganUniversity Extension Specialist UPLB, Philippines

Climate Change and Food Security: Challenges, Success and Opportunities in Bangladesh

Mr. Mohammad Alamgir Senior Scientific Officer (Forestry)Ministry of Water Resources, Bangladesh

Session 3B (SEARCA Drilon Hall)Chair: Dr. Corazon L. Rapera, Chair and Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics

College of Economics and Management (CEM), UPLBCo-chair: Mr. Karamat Ali, Country Coordinator, Pakistan Waters PartnershipRapporteur: Prof. Mayo Grace C. Amit, Assistant Professor, UPLB CPAf

Household Economic Losses: A Case Study of Thailand’s 2011 Flood

Dr. Orapan Nabangchang SrisawalakSenior Economist, EEPSEA and Associate Professor, Sukhothai Thammatirat Open University, Thailand

Understanding the Capacity of Policy Makers to Access and Use Climate Change Research Outputs for National Development: The Case of Zimbabwe

Mr. Ignatius GutsaLecturer, University of Zimbabwe

Institutionalizing Rural Communication Services for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security: The Bangladesh Experience

Dr. Cleofe S. TorresProfessorUPLB CDC, Philippines

Agriculture, Climate Change, Germplasm and Seeds, and Intellectual Property Rights

Dr. Krishna Ravi SrinivasAssociate Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries, India

Governing Small-scale Aquaculture for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in the Philippines

Dr. Pepito R. FernandezAssociate Professor, UPV, Philippines

Session 3C (Sam-Arng Srinilta Room)Chair: Dr. Herminia A. Francisco, Director, Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)Co-chair: Dr. Ronaldo B. Saludes, Assistant Professor, College of Engineering and Agro-industrial Technology, UPLBRapporteur: Dr. Rico C. Ancog, Assistant Professor, UPLB SESAM

Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia and the Philippines

Dr. Asa Jose U. SajiseAssociate ProfessorUPLB, Philippines

Addressing Linkages between Climate Change and Food Security through Top-Down and Bottom-Up Impact Assessments, Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis, Community-Based Adaptation, and Improved Socio-Institutional Mechanisms: FAO’s AMICAF Framework

Dr. Eulito U. BautistaProject Manager, FAO Philippines


Day 2


8:30 am Session 3C

Linking Climate Change, Rice Yield and Migration: The Philippine Experience

Dr. Flordeliza H. Bordey Senior Science Research SpecialistPhilippine Rice Research Institute

Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta: Should a Sea Dike be Built?

Dr. Vo Thanh Danh Dean, School of Economics and Business Administration Can Tho University, Vietnam

10:00 Coffee/Tea

Parallel Sessions 4: SYSTEMS AND TOOLS FOR ANALYZING CLIMATE CHANGEIMPACTS AND VULNERABILITY

10:30 Session 4A (SEARCA DL Umali Auditorium)Chair: Dr. Orapan Nabangchang Srisawalak, Senior Economist, EEPSEA

and Associate Professor, Sukhothai Thammatirat Open University, ThailandCo-chair: Dr. Bui Dung The, Director, Office of Science-Technology, International Cooperation

and Postgraduate Education, College of Economics, Hue University, Vietnam Rapporteur: Dr. Michelle Grace V. Paraso, Associate Professor, College of Veterinary Medicine, UPLB

Eliciting Factors Affecting Fish Kill Events in Taal Lake through Participatory Approaches: A Tool for the Development of a Predictive Fish Kill Model

Dr. Damasa B. Magcale-MacandogProfessorUPLB CAS, Philippines

A System for Monitoring the Effects of Climate on the Flux and Availability of Water Resources in the Drylands of Eastern Africa

Dr. Laban MacOpiyoLecturer, University of Nairobi, Kenya

Economy-Wide Estimates of Climate-Induced Impacts on Philippine Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Dr. Arvin B. VistaAssistant Professor UPLB CEM, Philippines

Session 4B (SEARCA Drilon Hall)Chair: Dr. Canesio D. Predo, Assistant Professor, UPLB CFNRCo-chair: Dr. Paul David Esker, Professor, University of Costa Rica Rapporteur: Dr. Lucille Elna P. de Guzman, University Researcher, UPLB CA

Methodological Framework for the Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Rice Areas

Dr. Anita A. BolingPostdoctoral Fellow, International Rice Research Institute

Regional Climate Simulations: Current Performance, Key Challenges, and the Fundamental Importance of their Coupling with End User Models

Dr. Volker WulfmeyerProfessor, University of Hohenheim, Germany

Use of Statistical Downscaling and Process-Based Crop Model in Assessing Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield

Mr. Mark Jay R. DatingInstructor, UPLB CAS, Philippines

Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling of Tropical Cyclones for the Agricultural Sector

Engr. Glenn S. BanaguasDirector for ResearchDe La Salle Araneta University, Philippines

12:00 pm Lunch

1:15 pm PLENARY 2 - Regional and South-South Collaboration in Research and DevelopmentSEARCA DL Umali Auditorium

Chair: Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz Chancellor, UPLB

Rapporteur: Dr. Michelle Grace V. ParasoAssociate Professor, UPLB CVM

Agrobiodiversity and Climate-Smart Landscapes for Improved Food Security under Climate Change: A Call for Increased South-South Collaboration

Dr. Reinhold G. MuschlerLatin American Chair for Agroecology and Agrobiodiversity Center for Agricultural Research and Higher Education Costa Rica


Day 2


1:15 pm PLENARY 2

Status and Prospects for South-South Exchange/ Collaboration: Asia-Pacific

Mr. Marcial C. Amaro Jr.DirectorEcosystems Research and Development BureauDepartment of Environment and Natural Resources, Philippines

Philippine RepresentativeAsia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN)

Advancing Higher Education and Research in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction through Multilevel Collaboration

Dr. Juan M. PulhinDean and Professor CFNR, UPLB, PhilippinesCoordinating Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report

2:15 Open Forum

2:30 PLENARY 3 - Panel Discussion on Networking for R&D and Capacity Building on Climate Change and Food, Environmental Security

Chair: Dr. Rodel D. LascoPhilippine Program Coordinator, World Agroforestry Center (ICRAF)

Rapporteur: Ms. Darleen GelaProject Officer, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability - Southeast Asia

Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN) Ms. Hiroko KodakaAssociate Programme Manager, APAN

University of the Philippines Los Baños Interdisciplinary Program on Climate Change (UPLB IdPCC)

Dr. Maria Victoria O. EspaldonChair, UPLB IdPCCVice-Chancellor for Research and Extension, UPLB

Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) Mr. Marcial C. Amaro, Jr.Director, ERDB and Philippine Representative, APN

University of Tokyo Dr. Seishi NinomiyaProfessorInstitute for Sustainable Agro-ecosystem ServicesUniversity of Tokyo

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)

Dr. Herminia A. FranciscoDirector, EEPSEA

ASEAN GIZ Biodiversity and Climate Change Project (BCCP)

Dr. Berthold Seibert Project Director, ASEAN-GIZ BCCP

3:45 Coffee/Tea

4:15 Synthesis, Conclusions and Recommendations Dr. Maria Victoria O. Espaldon

4:30 Closing Program

Closing Remarks Dr. Puja Sawhney Regional Coordinator, APAN

Appreciation Dr. Felino P. LansiganDr. Maria Celeste H. Cadiz

121-22 November 2012 | SEARCA, College, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines

Abstracts

of Conference Papers

Keynote Speech

Food Security and Climate Change Impacts on Urban-Rural Linkages

Plenary Presentations

Status, Prospects, and Practices for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture

Regional and South-South Collaboration in Research and Development

Parallel Sessions

Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

Climate Change Adaptation and Agriculture

Institutional and Economic Aspects of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Systems and Tools for Analyzing Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

2 International Conference on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Food and Environmental Security

SpeechKeynote


Food Security and Climate Change Impacts on Urban-Rural Linkages

Paul P. S. Teng

Food security as a foundation for sustainable development is highly vulnerable to the symptoms of climate change. In a world that is rapidly urbanizing, climate change effects on food security are felt in both urban and rural areas, in different but inter-connected ways. Cities concentrate people, rich and poor. Asia is projected to be about 64% urban by 2050 with at least 22 megacities which depend on the countryside or the global supply chain for most of its food needs. Any symptom of climate change which affects food production, transport, storage or processing will disrupt the flow of food from surplus to deficit areas, commonly rural to urban. Urban agriculture, a growing promise, will be negatively affected in similar ways to rural agriculture. Symptoms such as rising ambient temperature, rising sea levels and increased frequency of severe weather events (droughts, floods) are anticipated to reduce food security through reduced productivity and total production of crops, animals and fish. Models have been used which, while they vary in actual predictions, show similar trendlines in terms of impact. While urban populations rely mainly on imported food and reserves to buffer supply volatility, rural populations are likely to have their main sources of locally produced food totally destroyed. Urban farming using capital-intensive modern technology is potentially less susceptible to climate change effects. Planning for food security at the national level must necessarily recognize the strong rural-urban links in the increasingly urbanizing landscape and be concerned about all four dimensions of food security, namely food availability (production, imports, reserves), physical access/transport, economic access/affordability, and food utilization (safety, nutrition). There is unlikely to be any unilateral safeguard for food security. Dealing with climate change effects will require a multi-sectoral, multi-lateral, multi-disciplinary, integrated approach. A survey of Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries shows that both policy and action interventions are available to minimize food insecurity arising from the acute and chronic effects of climate change as well as other factors which disrupt food security.

Dean of Graduate Studies and Professional LearningNational Institute of Education (NIE) and

Senior Fellow on Food SecurityCenter for Non-traditional Security Studies S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS)Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore

Plenary 1: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture


PresentationsPlenary


Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in the Semi-Arid TropicsWilliam D. Dar, PhD1

Tremendous pressure is upon agriculture to produce more food by as much as 70% by 2050. The pressure is compounded by several crises confronting agriculture today. These include warming temperatures, drought, floods, increasing land degradation and desertification, loss of biodiversity, rising food prices, zooming energy demand and population explosion. Their confluence, if unabated, will lead to a “Perfect Storm”.

Climate change can create cereal yield reductions of up to 50% in many African countries, and up to 30% in Central and South Asia by 2080s. The impact of climate change will be most disastrous in the semi-arid tropics, home to 2 billion people and most of the world’s poor. Models indicate that there will be a 10% increase of dryland areas of the world with climate change.

This presentation discusses the impacts of climate change on dryland agriculture and what the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT) is doing using the power of science in areas such as adaptation to progressive climate change, adaptation through managing climate risk, pro-poor climate change mitigation and integration for decision making. It also presents specific research programs on dryland cereals and tropical legumes and points to some policy directions.

ICRISAT is the only global agricultural institute dedicated to serving the smallholder farmers and the poor in Asia and Africa. It is part of the CGIAR system of 15 international agricultural research institutes. It is committed to make agriculture climate resilient particularly in the semi-arid tropics.

1 Director General International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-arid Tropics (ICRISAT)



Agricultural Adaptation to Climatic Change at the Grassroots Level and Use of Advances in Science and Technology

Seishi Ninomiya

Agriculture used to aim at productivity based on high input of chemicals. However, such agriculture is not acceptable anymore considering its environmental impacts, and sustainability and robustness issues under climatic change; and while aiming for stable productivity, farm profitability, food safety and high quality. In 21st century agriculture, proper technology transfer to farmers is inevitable. However, lack of knowledge and information, which is serious in developing countries, hinder this. Particularly, illiteracy of farmers often prevents them from obtaining sufficient information and knowledge. Farmers still practice non-sustainable agriculture.

To solve this issue, a new idea is proposed to transfer agricultural knowledge and information to illiterate farmers. Using the model called Youth Mediated Communication (YMC), the farmers’ children who are educated in school serve as messengers between their parents and remote experts.

In this model, the children’s tasks are to (1) interview their parent farmers about present issues in their faming, (2) send the queries to remote experts, and receive advices from them by operating personal computers available in a village center, (3) transfer the advice to their parents and (4) collect information such as temperature and crop status from their parents’ fields using analogue tools and mobile phones in order to help the experts to feedback proper advices.

For its implementation, several new mechanisms are provided, such as (1) user friendly software to ease the information exchange among children and experts, (2) common Q&A sets to help the children make their queries, (3) graphical cards to help farmers’ understanding, and (4) machine translator for foreign experts and to guarantee the extensibility of the approach to other countries.

A test bed is set at a village in Vietnam and 29 paddy rice families participated in the project. It will take a few years to conclude about the effectiveness of the YMC approach in terms of improving rice production. Many of the farmers, however, mentioned that they were glad to have new knowledge and information. In addition, many of the parents and

Institute for Sustainable Agro-ecosystem Services, University of Tokyo1-1-1 Midoricho, Nishitokyo, Tokyo 188-0002, JapanEmail: [email protected]




children said that the communication between them was improved during the project. The children also became more interested in agriculture. With such responses, the YMC approach proves to have several potential functions as a tool for rural development in addition to knowledge transfer. Since children are more flexible to learn how to use computers and mobile phones, they can be a key to extend ICT in rural areas.

Although some issues have not been resolved, the YMC approach which integrates analogue human capability and high-end ICT can be a strong method to promote the agriculture in the 21st century, especially under climatic change in developing countries.

Keywords: Illiteracy, children, information transfer, human sensors


Plenary 2: Regional and South-South Collaboration in Research and Development

Agrobiodiversity and Climate-Smart Landscapes for Improved Food Security Under Climate Change: A Call for increased South-South Collaboration

Reinhold G. Muschler1

The neotropics are the center of origin of many vegetables and fruit trees of worldwide importance, including corn, beans, tomatoes, chillies, and avocados. Others, such as sapotes, annonas, peach palms (Bactris gasipaes), amaranths, and Arracacia are of regional importance. However, despite their often outstanding attributes, many of these species are not used to their full potential, neither agronomically, by inserting them into the environmental niches to which they are adapted, nor nutritionally by promoting their wider use in modern diets. This paper reviews salient examples of crops and trees which, if appropriately inserted into climate-smart landscapes, hold great promises for improving food security under climate change while, at the same time, reducing the human environmental footprint. A call is made for increasing South-South collaboration on the identification, promotion, and use of highly promising climate-resilient crops of high nutritional value which would contribute not only to improve the diets and, hence, health of disadvantaged propulations, but also to better adapt to and mitigate future climate change.

1 Latin American Chair of Agroecology and Agrobiodiversity Centro Agronómico Tropical de Investigación y Enseñanza (CATIE), Costa Rica Email: [email protected]


Advancing Higher Education and Research in Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction through Multi-level Collaboration

Juan M. Pulhin, PhD1

The multidimensional and interdisciplinary nature of climate change and disaster risk reduction (DRR) concerns poses formidable challenges in the area of collaboration among concerned stakeholders. New modes of partnerships need to be forged at various levels to effectively address the increasing vulnerability of many individuals and communities to natural hazards. Such partnerships should be able to integrate different types of information, knowledge, and experience through collaborative initiatives involving scientists, practitioners and policy makers, as well as the communities on the ground who bear the brunt of all forms of disasters. Drawing from the experience of the the Asian University Network of Environment and Disaster Management (AUEDM) and UP Los Baños College of Forestry and Natural Resources (UPLB-CFNR), this paper argues that academic institutions have a unique role to play in addressing the challenge of climate change and DRR by embracing a new paradigm in education and research involving stakeholders’ engagements and collaboration at multiple levels. The paper is divided into four major sections. The first section introduces Asia as the most vulnerable region of the world in terms of recorded incidence of hydrometeorological disasters and the implications of this in terms of integrating climate change and DRR concerns. Section 2 presents the multi-dimensional and interdisciplinary nature of climate change and DDR concerns and the need for integrated approach to address vulnerability to natural hazards. Section 3 discusses the experiences of AEUDM and its member institution, UPLB-CFNR, in addressing vulnerability through their pioneering works in climate change and DRR education and research involving multi-stakeholder partnership at various levels. The last section highlights the challenges faced by higher education networks like AUEDM in advancing multi-level collaboration.

1Professor and Dean, College of Forestry and Natural Resources University of the Philippines Los Baños

Plenary 2: Regional and South-South Collaboration in Research and Development


SessionsParallel


Unavoidable Global Warming Commitment and its Food Security, Impacts and Risk, Implications Focused on South East AsiaPeter D. Carter, MD

By combining all sources of unavoidable future warming, it was found that (certainly without drastic planetary emergency intervention) a global average temperature increase of 3°C from the pre-industrial period is unavoidable this century, which has grave implications for world and regional food security. According to the German Advisory Council on Global Change, food production is expected to decline worldwide if warming of 2-4°C occurs. Ramanathan and Fenghave calculated today’s committed warming at 2.4°C taking into account ocean heat lag and aerosol cooling. For this paper, the term “unavoidable global warming” was used to denote the actual total unavoidable warming, which will determine the committed unavoidable climate change and changes to crop yields and the risk of yield declines. The aim of the paper is to provide a reliable, understandable, policy-relevant guide in order to establish the degree of urgency for mitigation and adaptation, with respect to food security particularly for the most vulnerable regions and populations. This paper relies on the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report and the National Research Council’s 2011 Climate Stabilization Targets to provide a different yet complementary assessment approach via a simple estimation for calculating total unavoidable global warming commitment, linking this to projected crop yield changes. As a baseline guide for indicating the urgency of today’s climate change situation and for protecting food security, all unavoidable sources of warming were included; in particular, for policy relevance, it starts with the time to atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization. The focus is on regional unavoidable warming for Southeast Asia and the associated agricultural impacts and risk to food security, where we find crop yield losses will be substantial.

From climate science, the following unavoidable warming sources that contribute to unavoidable future warming were identified:

1. Duration of global warming;2. Today’s global emissions scenario;3. Time from the fastest emergency reduction of emissions to atmospheric greenhouse

gas stabilization;4. Delayed warming from the ocean heat lag;5. Deferred warming from unmasking of committed warming due to fossil fuel air

pollution aerosol cooling;6. Additional warming from positive climate system feedbacks resulting from the above.

Parallel Session 1A: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

Climate Emergency Institute, Canada


An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in EthiopiaZerihun G. Kelbore1

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on mean and variance of crop yields in Ethiopia over a period of 28 years. Stochastic production function was used to estimate the effects of belg and kiremt rainfall on crop yields and variances. It was found that the effects of the seasonal rainfalls differ across crops and regions. Increases in kiremt rainfall increases average yields of all crop items and reduces their variability in the SNNP region, while higher belg rainfall reduces maize yield and reduces its variability in Oromia region. A U-shape relationship is observed between crop production technology and crop yields, except for maize.

To analyze the effects of future climate on mean crop yields and variances, the study employed the estimated results from crop models with climate data predicted from three climate models including CGCM2, PCM, and HadCM3.

The simulation results show that negative impacts of future climate change entail serious damage on teff and wheat production, but maize yield will increase relatively in 2050. Even if losers and winners exist as a result of future climate change at regional levels, the future crop yield levels would largely depend on future technological development, which have shown to improve yield over time despite changing climate.

1 PhD Candidate in Economics and Management Graduate School of Social Science, University of Trento Email: [email protected]



Climate Changes in Cambodia, Philippines, and Vietnam: A vulnerability Analysis at Commune and Household Levels

Bui Dung The1 et al.

Local government units down to the provincial level in the Philippines, Cambodia, and Vietnam face various constraints, including the lack of adequate insight into the vulnerability of local communities, and the need for the design and implementation of adaptation measures. As a response, the present study analyzes the vulnerability to climate change of communes/barangays and households in three selected provinces: Kampong Speu province in Cambodia, Laguna province in the Philippines, and Thua Thien Hue province in Vietnam.

The study identified two-thirds of the communes/barangays at the study sites to be highly vulnerable. These are mostly communities in lowland and coastal areas, communes/barangays with relatively high incidence of poverty, with large areas devoted to agricultural activities, and with poor infrastructure social facilities. In the case of Laguna, Philippines, contributors to this vulnerability relates to sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, such as their relative unpreparedness, fragile location, lack of amenities, and scarce knowledge and information about climate change and its impacts. As for Thua Thien Hue, Vietnam, the dominant factors to community vulnerability in most cases are high exposure to hazard, low adaptive capacity and the lack of a long-term planning perspective on adaptation. The local authorities in the province have primarily focused on building response capacity such as having yearly evacuation plans, training people in disaster drills, providing weather data to local authorities, etc. As for Kampong Speu province in Cambodia, low adaptive capacity is the dominant determinant to vulnerability.

Vulnerability analyses at household level found that household characteristics related to resource access and exposure play a dominant role in determining vulnerability. These include household income, types of livelihood, health status, family size, education of the household head, and the level of exposure to hazard income. Households living on natural resource based livelihood are likely to be more vulnerable as these livelihoods are more exposed and sensitive to climate hazards. Most poor households were found to be vulnerable and at the three study sites, low adaptive capacity was the key to households being very vulnerable to climate change. For Thua Thien Hue high exposure contributed much to household vulnerability. Vulnerability was found to be gender differentiated at the three sites. Women were more vulnerable to climatic hazard than men due to the fact that women are not as physically strong as men, have limited skills and opportunities, but have more responsibilities in taking care of family members. While demand for effort and participation in the productive sphere goes up for both men and women during response and rehabilitation periods, there is no increase in demand for men to participate on the domestic front except for the rebuilding of physical structures.

Given the above findings the study provides a number of policy recommendations and suggestions to reduce vulnerability and improve resilience of communities and households.


1 Director, Office of Science-Technology, International Cooperation and Postgraduate Education, College of Economics, Hue University, Vietnam


Carbon Sequestration and Climate Change Impact on the Yield of Bagras (Eucalyptus deglupta Blume) in Corn-based Boundary Planting Agroforestry System in Northern Mindanao, Philippines

Richmund A. Palma, PhD1 and Wilfredo M. Carandang, PhD2

A corn-based agroforestry system using Bagras (Eucalyptus deglupta Blume) as boundary planting for biomass production and climate change mitigation is an essential option for smallholder agroforestry farms in northern Mindanao, Philippines. In this study, multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop an appropriate prediction model for yield and biomass expansion factor (BEF) from soil chemical properties, physiographic characteristics, stand attributes, rainfall, temperature, and biomass inventoried volume (BV) of Bagras planted in the boundary. Data were taken from established corn-based boundary plantings in Northern Mindanao, Philippines where sampling was extended over the entire range of tree sizes and environmental conditions. Results showed that age, site index, temperature, and spacing were strongly associated with yield. It was found that 88.70 percent of the variance in yield can be predicted from the set of independent variables. Based on the model, for every unit increase in site index, age, temperature, and spacing there is a 2.15, 0.7052, 2.56, and 0.0747 unit increase in the predicted yield, respectively. The predicted biomass accumulation at 52 trees ha-1 was 24.44, 73.07, and 78.67 Mg ha-1. The mean annual aboveground biomass accumulation was 24.44, 7.31 and 3.93 Mg ha-1 yr-1 at ages 1, 10, and 20 years. Seasonal mean temperature was also entered into the yield prediction equation for boundary. The equation developed for this agroforestry system shows the predicted positive response of Bagras to future changes in seasonal mean temperature. Establishing Bagras at a distance of 2 meters, with site index equal to 19, with age set at 10 years, was predicted to yield 0.197404 cubit meters (m3) (84 board feet) per tree in 2020. At 2050, the yield was predicted to balloon to approximately 3.118212 m3 (1322 board feet) per tree. Yield and biomass production in boundary plantings can be highly variable depending on environmental and soil characteristics, tree spacing, pruning frequency, and management.

Keywords: agroforestry, boundary, climate change, yield, carbon sequestration

1 Assistant Professor, Institute of Agriculture, Misamis Oriental State College of Agriculture and Technology, Claveria, Misamis Oriental, Philippines2 Professor, Institute of Renewable Natural Resources, College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines



Climate-Driven Variations in Small Pelagic Fisheries Production in Northern Zamboanga and Bohol Sea: Potential Impact, Vulnerability, and Local Adaptive Capacity

Asuncion B. De Guzman1, Cesaria R. Jimenez1, Juliet H. Madula1, Angelo C. Macario2, Melrose H. Flores1, and Jerry P. Garcia1

The CoastFish Project under the RESILIENT SEAS program evaluated the potential effect of the changing climate on coastal fisheries production in selected fishing grounds in Mindanao. Parameters of production (e.g. mean annual catch, catch rates, and net fisher income) were obtained from dockside catch surveys between May 2009 and June 2011. The coastalfisheries in most bays are dominated by small pelagic fish: Dipolog-Sindangan Bay (DSB) had the highest mean annual fish production amounting to 169,554 metric tons, largely contributed by commercial gears. Mean catch rates of municipal gears (3.66-10.86 kg per trip) are much smaller than those of commercial bagnet and ringnet (577.62-5714.12 kg per trip) and consequently, smaller net daily incomes (PHP 205–PHP 312). The small pelagics fisheries along the Zamboanga peninsula-Bohol Sea system is dominated by the planktivorous Bali sardine (Sardinella lemuru) highly associated with upwelling zones or high-nutrient areas. Climate influence on small pelagic fisheries is most apparent in Dipolog-Sindangan and Butuan Bay where fisheries production during the northeast monsoon (NEM) is much higher than during the southwest monsoon (SWM). High productivity in the northern Zamboanga peninsula resulting in abundance of sardine and other small pelagics is attributed to the elevated chlorophyll a levels and low SST (r= -0.71) during the NEM upwelling while that of Butuan Bay is associated with high rainfall (r = 0.68) inducing large nutrient influx from Butuan River and the vast Agusan watershed. The peak of gonadal maturity of S. lemuru in DSB (October–December) and larval recruitment (December–February) coincides with plankton abundance during NEM. The sudden decline of sardine stocks in 2008 coincided with the collapse of chlorophyll a following the 2007-2008 Al Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event which had seriously impacted the post-harvest industry in northern Zamboanga. The virtual disappearance of sardine from the NZP was linked to sustained high rainfall during the La Niña phase that shut off upwelling during this period. The four bays studied under the CoastFish project support the livelihood of more than 20,000 fishers in Mindanao but signs of overfishing are apparent. Threats of climate change-associated effects can work in synergy with overfishing to threaten fisheries biodiversity and production and the livelihoods of fishers. Vulnerability assessment conducted in these four baysindicates that many coastal municipalities are highly vulnerable to storm-induced impacts on coastal biodiversity, integrity, and fisheries. Local and national governments must formulate measures to increase local adaptive capacity to deal with the multiple climate change effects on fisheries and coastal ecosystems.

Keywords: climate change, upwelling, adaptation, vulnerability assessment

1 Mindanao State University at Naawan 2 Dipolog School of Fisheries

Parallel Session 1B: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability


Food Insecurity and Climate Change in Nigeria: How Vulnerable are Rural Farmers?

Samuel O. Awoniyi1 and A.O. Folayan2

The sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) scores high (20.5; alarming hunger status) in the 2011 Global Hunger Index (GHI), with the only three countries in the extremely alarming status found in the region. The High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition (HLPE) 2011 report states that majority of the poor who are likely to be at high risk to food insecurity brought about by climate change are located in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that Africa is one of the most vulnerable continents to climate change and climate vulnerability.

A livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) was developed to estimate climate change vulnerability in the Niger and Ekiti states of Nigeria. Two hundred households in each state were surveyed to collect data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters, and climate variability. Data were aggregated using a composite index and differential vulnerabilities were compared. Infrastructural constraints were ranked first by more than 89 percent of respondents. It was followed, in decreasing order of importance, by financial, technical, and economic constraints (>80% of respondents); macro-economic policy and socio-cultural constraints (>67%); labor, environmental, and political constraints (>45%); and micro-economic policy, institutional, health, and land tenure constraints (<45%). Results suggest that Niger state may be more vulnerable in terms of water resources and socio-demographic structure while Ekiti state may be more vulnerable in terms of socio-demographic structure. This pragmatic approach may be used to monitor vulnerability, program resources for assistance, and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in data-scarce regions by introducing scenarios into the LVI model for baseline comparison. Increasing the agricultural productivity, reducing post-harvest losses, promoting a database for early warning systems, and building capacity of government officials in monitoring the status of food security in the country are strategies recommended in the study.

Keyword: food insecurity, vulnerability, climate change, constraints, livelihood.

1 Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension Joseph Ayo Babalola University, Nigeria. Email: [email protected] Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ekiti State, Nigeria



Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity of Pastoral Communities under Climate Change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region

S. Joshi, M. Ismail, R.M. Shrestha, and N. Wu

Pastoralism, is the main livelihood in the rangeland ecosystems which cover about 60 percent of the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH). Global climate change is raising new challenges for pastoral systems in HKH region with its negative impacts on livestock production due to shrinking pastures, decline in forage, and varying weather patterns which stretch the resilience of local pastoralists beyond their capacity. This paper presents findings from six regional countries (Afghanistan, Bhutan, China, India, Nepal, and Pakistan) with the goal of assessing pastoral communities’ vulnerability and adaptive capacity to climate change using structured questionnaires, group discussions, and local observations. Our results reveal that socio-economically, mountain people are highly dependent on rangeland resource. Mountain pastoralists perceived that they were deprived of basic facilities such as education, health facilities, and infrastructure. Our findings indicate that pastoralists are exposed to extreme vulnerabilities, due to change in climate, ecosystem functions, and socioeconomic condition. Climate change has caused drought, shortage of fuel, water, food, and grazing land, hence causing resource-use conflicts in the HKH rangelands. Traditional resilience of pastoral communities is further being affected by socioeconomic changes related to tourism and globalization, which have led to further degradation of the rangelands. Meanwhile pastoralists have adopted a unique strategy to survive despite food shortages by keeping livestock and buying food items from livestock income, trade, and seasonal outmigration for alternative employment. The study highlights the need for innovative livelihood diversification strategies for future sustainability of the HKH rangeland ecosystem.

International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)Khumaltar, Lalitpur, Nepal. G.P.O Box 3226.



Status of Native Forest Managed by Mataqali Under Anthropogenic Pressure - A Case From Sote Village, Nukurua, Tailevu, The Fiji Islands

Maika Tabukovu and Saurindra Narayan Goswami, Roneil Latchman

The Fiji Islands comprise 330 islands, of which about a third is permanently inhabited. The four large islands, namely Viti Levu, Vanua Levu, Taveuni & Kandavu, cover about 92% of the total land area. Of the total land area about 80% is covered by trees and pastures. Significantly, 85% of the total land area is communally owned by mataqalian itaukei, a word representing the Fijian clan or landowning unit. The forest has always been an integrated part of the people in these Islands. In the last two decades, deforestation, triggered by rapid human demands due to increasing population, has made the people vulnerable to climate changes. The present study was carried out during the late rainy season of 2012 in Sote village, Nukurua, Fiji Islands located between S1804’19” to E178022’23”. Quadrants of size 50 m x 10 m were laid in various locations in a mataqali-owned native forest in Sote, sites being chosen on the basis of accessibility to towns (remote), proximity to Waidalica river, and distance from the road. Measurements of only mature standing trees above 35 inches in diameter were recorded and converted into tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent ha-1, adopting allometric equations from the IPCC Guidelines. The study showed that in a native forest site located in remote area Endospermum macrophyllum (540.3tCO2Eqvha-1), an endemic species, and Pometia pinnata (730.1 tCO2Eqvha-1), a widespread species, were good carbon sequesters. In the studied forest site near the Waidalica river, Myristiccastaneifolia was shown to sequester 462.4 tCO2Eqvha-1. In the site near the road, Swietenia macrophylla (320.0 t CO2Eqvha-1), an introduced plantation species, showed significant capacity for carbon sequestration. The study revealed that accessibility to forest is the crucial factor that regulates the forest carbon sink.

Keywords: native forest, climate change, community forestry, mataqali, The Fiji islands.

Department of Forestry, College of Agriculture, Fisheries and ForestryFiji National University, Fiji Islands

Email: [email protected]



Flooding Vulnerability of the Towns of Mabitac, and Santa Maria, Laguna, Philippines

Romeo Pati1, D.T. Franco2, A.J. Alcantara3, E. Pacardo3, A.N. Resurreccion4

The combination of flood modelling and socio-economic indicators was used to determine the flooding vulnerability of the towns of Santa Maria and Mabitac, Laguna. GIS hazard mapping and vulnerability-resilience indicators were used to assess the interaction of flood hazard and socio-economic conditions. The HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS modelling system was used to derive the synthetic hydrograph and delineate the inundated areas in the flood-prone barangays of Santa Maria and Mabitac. The social vulnerability of the flood-prone barangays in the two towns was determined using proxy indicators. The flood modelling predicted the flood depths in 7 out of 10 communities and delineated the inundated barangays of the two towns. The social vulnerability analysis indicated that Barangays Jose Rizal, Masinao, Adia and Coralan in Santa Maria and Barangays San Antonio, Libis ng Nayon, Bayanihan, Pag-asa, Nanguma and Lambac in Mabitac are very vulnerable to flooding. The study revealed environment-related aspects that are helpful in reducing the impacts of flooding, such as strengthening the flood warning system and emergency response capacity through flood hazard zonation mapping and rehabilitation of the watershed in Santa Maria.

1 Associate Professor, College of Agriculture, University of Rizal System2 Adjunct Professor, School of Environmental Science and Management, UPLB3 Professor, School of Environmental Science and Management, UPLB4 Professor, College of Engineering and Agro-industrial Technology, UPLB



Projected Impact of Downscaled Climate Scenarios on Rice Production in Two Selected Provinces in the Philippines

Linda M. Peñalba1, Felino P. Lansigan2, Dulce D. Elazegui1, Mayo Grace C. Amit1 and Francis John F. Faderogao1

Climate scenarios are useful in characterizing future climate risks and for evaluating the effectiveness of adaptation options. As most projected climate scenarios are at the national, regional and global levels, these have to be downscaled to determine more precisely the appropriate local response actions. This is particularly true in the Philippines which has been experiencing climate variability and extremes that cause heavy damage to agriculture and threaten food availability. Typhoons and long dry spells which caused severe water stress were the most destructive climate events experienced by Philippine farmers in recent years. The impact is greatest on rice production because of its sensitivity to water stress.

This paper presents the projected climate scenarios in two Philippine provinces for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080; their potential impacts on rice yield if current practices will be continued; and the recommended alternative farming system aimed towards food security and sustainability.

Data used in the analysis were collected through key informant interviews, focus group discussions, surveys of rice farmers and desk review of weather records. Statistical downscaling technique was used in generating the climate scenarios in 2020, 2050 and 2080. Potential impacts of the climate scenarios were determined using crop simulation model. The generated daily weather data, together with physiochemical properties of soil, crop management practices and genetic coefficients of standard crop variety, were integrated to simulate the growth and development of rice crops under different climate scenarios. The information generated using the model was used in assessing sustainability of current farming practices, effectiveness of current adaptation strategies by Philippine rice farmers, and in designing alternative farming systems.

Downscaled climate scenarios show that there will not be much difference in temperature and rainfall patterns between the four time periods (baseline, 2020, 2050 and 2080). However, the amount of rainfall is expected to increase considerably from 300 to 400 mm in June, from 500 to 800 mm in July, and from 300 to 400 mm in September. Under current practices, water supply is critical in the months of June (rice planting period), July (growing period), August (vegetative growth period), and September to October (harvesting period). The combined effects of increases in temperature and rainfall on rice production vary depending on the

1College of Public Affairs and Development, UPLB2College of Arts and Sciences, UPLB

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected];[email protected]; [email protected]

Parallel Session 1C: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability


time period, location, ecozone, cropping season, and planting schedule. In general, rice yield in Tarlac will decrease but increase in Pangasinan.

To take advantage of the expected increase in water supply and minimize the impacts of water stress, alternative farming practices should be explored. These include adjustment of cropping calendar to avoid water stress during critical months, crop rotation and diversification to control pests and disease problems, construction of small farm reservoirs and bunds to capture rain water for use during dry months, zero tillage for more effective water infiltration, prevention of soil erosion and soil degradation, and use of appropriate crop varieties such as drought resistant or submergence-tolerant varieties. In addition, farmers’ education should be undertaken to improve the social acceptability of alternative conservation agriculture technologies and to help farmers make informed decisions about the appropriate technologies they can adopt considering projected climatic changes.

Keywords: crop simulation, Philippines, adaptation options, ecozone



Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in Vietnam

Ngo Duc Minh1,2,, Reiner Wassmann1, Mai Van Trinh3, and Bjoern Ole Sander1

Vietnam is among five countries that will experience worst effect from the impacts of climate change, mainly through rising sea levels and changes in rainfall and temperatures. Climate change can have serious implications for the agriculture sector, especially in rice production, due to its direct exposure to and dependence on weather and other natural conditions. The Red River Delta and the Mekong River Delta, which are considered the country’s major granaries contributing about 70% of Vietnam’s total rice production and 90% of its total rice exports were indentified as most vulnerable to the impact of global warming in Vietnam due to rising sea levels.

Recognizing the importance of the role of rice production in the national economy and food security, the government has prepared the country’s National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC), which was adopted in 2008. One of its important strategic objectives is to focus on assessing the impacts of climate change on rice production in specific periods and regions and developing plans to respond and adapt to climate change to ensure food security and the sustainable development of the country. This paper presents a comprehensive overview on the projected impacts of climate change on rice production at the regional and national scale in Vietnam, and the potential mitigation and adaptation options.

Keywords: rice production, climate change, impact, mitigation, adaptation

1 Crop and Environmental Sciences Division, International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) 4031 Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines2 Soils and Fertilizers Research Institute, Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences3 Institute of Agricultural Environment, Vietnam Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]



Measuring the Impact of La Niña on Food and Nutrition Security in Timor Leste1

Agustinho da Costa Ximenes2

Timor-Leste has experienced significant negative impacts on food and nutrition security from La Nina events in recent years. The most significant impacts on food production occurred during torrential rains at the end of 2010, and during rains which persisted throughout the whole of 2011. As a country nearly completely reliant on rain-fed agriculture, the effects of these rains impacted food availability through decreased national production and food access through increasing food prices and reduced market movement due to deteriorating transportation networks.

A number of crops were affected by La Nina, however the most drastically affected crop production was maize. In 2010 the average maize production decreased by 79% due to La Nina, when compared to a year of typical maize production. Essentially, maize production decreased as a result of a decline of 69% in the total cultivated and harvested area. This decrease occurred even though the yield per hectare increased. The sequential nature of these two disastrous harvests had a severe impact on the food situation in Timor-Leste as maize is the staple food after rice and is often a primary staple for high elevation rural communities. National maize consumption in Timor-Leste is currently 71,449 mt/year with per capita consumption reaching 67 kg.

The effect of La Nina also exacerbates the nutrition deficiencies of vulnerable populations of the country due to decreased food outputs leading to reduced availability in the market and at the household level. During these years the peak lean season, which is normally experienced for a four-month period from December to February, increased to six months. The extended periods of hunger complicate the growing malnutrition and hunger in the country, as 34% of children under five years of age are under-weight and11% are wasted2. With an aim to prevent further hunger the Ministry of Tourism, Commerce and Industry imported 97,177 mt of Vietnamese rice during 2011, which was sufficient to cover 87% of the rice consumption of the country per year.The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries also made efforts to alleviate the situation by importing and providing seeds for farmers sufficient to cover 80% of farmer’s seed requirements.

The paper argues that further policy development is required to reduce the national vulnerability to increasingly irregular rains and likely future food crises. Recommendations are suggested in the areas of increased food diversity, reduction of post-harvest losses and centralized government food reserves and seeds storage.

1 Inter-ministerial Food and Nutrition Security Task Force Report of Quarter I, 2012 2 H-MIS Ministry of Health Timor Leste 2011



Climate Change Implications to Food Security and Livelihood of Small-Scale Farmers in Lao PDR

Outhai Soukkhy1, P. Bounmee1, S. Keo Oudone2, S. Houmpheng3, H. Khannouvong4, and S. Inthalay5

Laos is a mountainous country highly dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. Over 80 percent of agricultural land accounts for production of rice, the staple food for Lao people. As agriculture depends on climate trends, changes in weather patterns and climate aberrations affect the growth and development of crops, making Lao-PDR vulnerable to climate change.

This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change-related events on rice production, food security and livelihood of small-scale farmers in three rice ecosystems, i.e., irrigated lowland, rainfed lowland and rainfed upland in the provinces of Luang Prabang and Savannakhet in the Lao-PDR. Yield levels under different climate scenarios were compared with the yields under historical or current climate conditions. Simulated yields were determined using downscaled climate projections for the study sites. Changes in simulated rice yields for each of the different locations were compared with baseline or current conditions (i.e., using weather data from the last 30 years), and with those for 2020, 2050 and 2080 using the Global Circulation Model.

Household farm surveys were conducted to assess the effects of climate change on farmers’ livelihood and food security situations whilst key informant interviews and focus group discussions were done to validate the results of the farm survey and to assess coping strategies of local institutions to the threats of climate change.

Descriptive statistics was used to analyze the qualitative and quantitative data gathered from household farm surveys, key informant interviews and focus group discussions. Results suggested that rice productivity tends to decline in irrigated lowland, rainfed lowland, and rainfed upland by as much as 45, 57, and 71 percent, respectively, due to induced climate related events. While the projected climate scenarios suggest an increase in the magnitude of rainfall based on the downscaled climate scenario for Luang Prabang and Savannakhet, rice productivity remains uncertain to sustain the demand of increasing population and to make Lao-PDR food secure for the years to come. The results of this study can help local institutions formulate policy actions that can mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change on food security and livelihood of small scale farmers.

Keywords: rainfed rice, climate change, food security

1 Northern Agriculture and Forestry College (NAFC) 2 Savannakhet Provincial Agriculture and Forestry Office (PAFO)3 Luang Prabang Provincial Agricultural and Forestry Office (PAFO) 4 Nambak District Agriculture and Forestry Office (DAFO), Luang Prabang Province 5 Xayboury District Agriculture and Forestry Office (DAFO), Savannakhet Province

Email: [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]



Livelihood Capacity and Adaptive Strategies to Climate Change of Rice-Based Farming Households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

Le Canh Dung, Dang Kieu Nhan, Vo Van Ha, and Vo Van Tuann

Simulation studies have shown that weather extremes would become more severe in frequency and intensity. Therefore, the vulnerability of rice-based farming households to weather or climate variability need to be understood and their adaptive strategies should be identified. Household surveys conducted in four provinces representing major agro-ecological zones in the Mekong Delta in 2011 aimed to understand enabling and constraining factors of livelihood capacity, and to identify options of improvement of adaptive capacity of rice-based farming households to weather and/or climate variability. A total of 480 households were selected randomly for interviews in An Giang (flood zone), Can Tho (alluvial zone), Hau Giang (acidic zone) and Bac Lieu (saline zone) provinces. Results show that rice–based farming households have been constrained by a combination of climatic and non-climatic factors. For climatic factors, crop production has suffered heavy losses from abnormal rains, floods or inundations, droughts, high temperature, and salinity intrusion. For non-climatic factors, rice pest outbreaks, irrigation water availability, and accessibility by farmers in the dry season and pollution of canal water from agro-chemical residues were perceived important for rice production, human health, and aquatic resources. In addition, availability and accessibility of adaptive rice varieties and farm labor, high input costs, and household’s financial weakness were considered significant. Appropriate measures should be placed in broad contexts of household sustainable livelihoods and rural development, including both technological and socio-economic aspects at the household or even higher levels.

Mekong Delta Development Research Institute, Can Tho University, Vietnam


Parallel Session 2A: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture


Community-based Climate Change Adaptation in Contiguous Agricultural Ecosystems—Experiences from the Cordillera Region in the Philippines

Roberto C. Sandoval Jr.1 and Stephan Baas2

This paper presents experiences from a project by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations and the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA), in partnership with local government units (LGUs) and different government agencies. The three-year project, titled “Enhanced Climate Change Adaptation Capacity of Communities in Contiguous Fragile Ecosystems in the Cordilleras,” aimed to improve climate change coping mechanisms in the Cordillera Region through capacity development activities at various levels, and field demonstrations of location-specific climate change adaptation (CCA) options with upscaling potential. Good practice options for CCA on Crop Production, Agroforestry and Forest Enrichment, Soil Management, Water Management and Small-scale Agricultural Infrastructure were tested in the low, middle, and high elevation areas of Benguet and Ifugao provinces. These good practice options were evaluated using a participatory monitoring and evaluation methodology that examined the ability of good practice CCA options to increase resilience with reference to Technological Suitability, Environmental Efficiency and Effectiveness, and Socio-Cultural and Economic Acceptability. Some good practice options recommended for replication include: (a) coffee, rambutan and pummelo for forest enrichment and slope stabilization; (b) homestead gardening (as part of Integrated Food Systems); (c) establishment of community fruit tree nursery; and (d) small water impoundment to augment vegetable production. Key lessons include: (i) participatory action research is effective in initiating local adaptation processes; (ii) defined sets of criteria for CCA good practices are needed in order to maintain climate change focus; (iii) local participatory vulnerability assessments are essential for targeted adaptation; and (iv) setting up a proper monitoring and evaluation system is challenging but is essential for evaluation that goes beyond economic yields.

1 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Manila, Philippines2 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy



Successful Local Food Production Project in Solomon Islands: The Blue Print for the Pacific Islands Countries and Territories

Ravindra C. Joshi1 and Philip Manuao2

This proposed blueprint aims to address food and nutrition insecurity in small outer islands across the Pacific Island countries and territories that are affected by climate change and loss of biodiversity. It was developed from the Kwai Island Organic Farming Model for Family Food and Nutrition Security, together with INHIM Community Care, Atori, East Malaita Province, Solomon Islands.

Kwai is a small island off the east coast of Malaita, one of the small outer islands in the Solomon Islands. The people of Kwai generally live on seafoods. It was costly for islanders to procure vegetables and fruits from the mainland because their sandy soils hinder crop growth. In order to address this, ‘Sup-Sup’ home organic gardening was introduced. As a result, it facilitated proper waste segregation and island sanitation, as well as successful local organic production of various fruits and vegetables. This simple approach allowed Kwai Islanders to access nutritious organic foods. This has impacted the lives of the Kwai Islanders. Due to its success, the model is now widely known around the Pacific.

This paper presents the unique challenges to the food production model faced at Kwai Island from climate change complexities to evolution of various adaptation strategies. It also expounds on the step-by-step process by which this model (blue print) was developed with no external funding but with full community participation and cost-sharing. This has transformed the whole Kwai Island community to go into organic vegetable and fruit farming—from having zero in the past to having abundant and diverse food now. This paper also shows various approaches on how this model was promoted across the Solomon Islands as a guide to upscale it in other outer island communities, especially for those living on atolls that are vulnerable to global sea-level rise and king tides, and in nearby Pacific countries as safety net to address food and nutrition insecurities.

Keywords: family food and nutrition security, climate change, outer islands, health, sanitation, Pacific islands countries and territories, blue print, organic farming model, Solomon Islands, Kwai Islands

1 Senior Adviser for Agriculture Development Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, Solomon Islands Government

Address for correspondence: Consultant, Ministry of Primary Industries (Agriculture), Koronivia Research Station, P. O. Box 77, Nausori, Republic of Fiji, Email: [email protected], [email protected]: +679 864 6411

2 INHIM Community Care, Atori, East Malaita Province, Solomon Islands, c/o South Sea Evangelical Church, Honiara, Solomon Islands, Email: [email protected] Tel: +677 749 9276



Mitigating the Negative Impact of Climate Changes on Field Crop Production

M. M. Tawfik, A. T. Thalooth, M. Zaki Nabila, M. S. Hassanein, G. Ahmed Amal, A. El Husseiny Ebtsam, O. M. Ibrahim and A. Badr Elham

Climate change is a major environmental challenge all over the world today. It threatens the ecosystem, food security, water resources and economic stability. The high sensitivity of field crops to climatic conditions and the great uncertainty of the combined effects of increasing CO2 concentration, as well as the projected changes in temperature and rainfall patterns on crops, underscore the need to implement appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture towards increased production and food security. A recent option to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on crop production is the practice of climate-smart agriculture, which helps protect farms from the adverse effects of climate change, provides means to reduce greenhouse gases, sequesters carbon in the soil, uses precision agricultural systems, increases productivity on a sustainable basis, and builds farm resilience in facing environmental pressures. Climate-smart agriculture enhances the content of soil organic matter and improves its capacity to retain water.

Some unconventional approaches include sustainable use of marginal areas, such as saline soils with poor drainage and desert lands, for planting non-traditional crops like halophytic (salt-resistant or salt-tolerant) forage crops (Leptochloa fusca, sporobolus virginicus, Kochia indica, Spartina patens, Kochia scoparia and Salicornia europeae). These plants have economic value and can be harvested up to 10 times a year. They were found capable of recovering and maintaining a fresh productive biomass of 8.42 to 15.88 ton ha-1 year-1. The value of crude protein from this biomass varied between 8.32 to 10.2 %. This biomass also contains cellulose and hemicelluloses, varying in amounts from 25.14% to 31.23%, which may be used for ethanol production. Successive cuttings of these halophytic plants improve soil quality, and decrease sodium adsorption ratio (SAR) and electrical conductivity (EC) dS/m, since some of these plants can accumulate salts into their leaves’ vacuoles. These plants may be grown for multiple uses, such as for forage and biofuel production, on salt-affected land that may be irrigated with brackish water or seawater. This frees fresh water and high quality soil for food and feed production, while making poor land productive at the same time contributing to energy security, guaranteeing environmental sustainability, tolerating the impacts of climate change (water stress, salt stress and high temperatures), increasing livelihood options, bioremediating salt affected soil, strengthening farmers’ resilience, reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture, and increasing carbon sequestration.

Other options include development of new varieties of crops adapted to heat, salinity, drought and resistance to pests and diseases, with short growing season to reduce their

Field Crops Research DepartmentNational Research Centre, Dokki, Giza, Egypt




water requirements. Further, irrigation techniques may be modified, including water quantity used, timing of irrigation, and crop management using limited amounts of available water to maximize the return by unit of water (water productivity) for arid and semi-arid regions.

Expansion of organic agriculture is one of the important and widely practiced agro-ecological farming systems. It is claimed to be the most sustainable approach and long-term adaptation strategy. It emphasizes recycling techniques, low external input, and high output strategies. It is based on enhancing soil fertility and diversity and makes soils less susceptible to erosion. Organic agriculture has well established practices that simultaneously mitigate climate change, reduce poverty and improve food security. Using tillage practices, or management practices with minimal soil disturbance and incorporation of crop residue, will increase soil carbon because these residues are the precursors of soil organic matter. These, in turn, will help reduce GHG emissions and increase carbon sequestration.



Low Delta Cropping and Micro Irrigation Techniques as Adaptation Measures of Climate Change in Northern Balochistan, Pakistan

Faiz Mohammad Kakar1, Young Jin Lee2, Khair Muhammad Kakar3 ,

and Sarfaraz Hussain4

This paper presents results of an in-depth study of microirrigation and low delta cropping (grapes) with flood irrigation and high delta cropping (apple and apricot).Interviews were conducted among 50 farmers involved in flood and microirrigation systems and low and high delta cropping using a pre-designed questionnaire. Systematic sampling was adapted and different tools of participatory rural appraisal (PRA) were exercised.

Results show that the minimum energy required for pumping out the underground water more than 400 feet (ft) is 15 horsepower (HP) while the maximum energy required for a depth of less than 200 ft is also 15 HP amounting to a monthly expenditure of PKR 8,000 to PKR 21,000 (in the case of a 50 HP pump).

Results also show that grapes required a minimum 17 irrigation while the maximum number of irrigation for apples was 25. Similarly 16 liters (L) of water per irrigation were consumed by grapes while 49 L of water were consumed by apples per. of the highest average net income of PKR 739,676 was generated by grapes, followed by apples (PKR 619,788) and apricots (PKR 267,687).

1 Member, Board of Directors, Center for Research and Development (CRD) Quetta-Pakistan2 Professor, Department of Forest Resources, Kangju National University Korea3 Director Field Operations, PACCD-Winrock International-USDA4 Assistant Director, Agriculture Department, Government of Balochistan, Pakistan

Parallel Session 2B: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture


Adaptive Capacity and Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability of Farming Households of Dumangas, Iloilo, Philippines

Gay D. Defiesta, PhD1 and Corazon L. Rapera, PhD2

This study analyzed the adaptive capacity and adaptation strategies to climate change of 520 farming households in Dumangas, a town in central Philippines confronting many climate/weather-induced risks. The objectives of the study were: to determine the levels of adaptive capacity of farming households to climate change, analyze the factors that cause the differences in adaptive capacity and find out whether adaptive capacity translates to adaptation.

To determine the level of adaptive capacity of each household, a composite index based on previous studies was formulated. The index included five indicators namely human resources, physical resources, financial resources, information and diversity. Adaptation strategies on the other hand were documented, described and related to adaptive capacity of households. Results showed that variations in adaptive capacity were primarily caused by differences in households’ information resources, followed by physical and financial resources. Farming households that scored low in these three indicators had lower adaptive capacity. It was also found out that despite their level of adaptive capacity, households employed measures to adapt to climate change and variability. Households with higher adaptive capacity however, tend to employ more adaptation strategies.

1 Division of Social Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Visayas, Miag-ao, Iloilo Telephone no.: +63 33 5137012 Email: [email protected], [email protected]

2 Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Economics and Management, University of the Philippines Los Baños Telephone no.: +63 49 536 3292; Fax no.: +63 49 536 3292 Email: [email protected]



A Shift in the Mycotoxin Profile in Costa Rica Under Climate Change – A Case Study on Mycotoxigenic Fusarium proliferatum in rice (Oryza sativa)

Verónica Campos-Sánchez1, Paul D. Esker2, and Adriana Murillo-Williams1

Climate change scenarios suggest potentially large impacts on food security, especially in relation to development of mycotoxins. In Costa Rica (CR), rice is a staple food and 60% of the demand is fulfilled with local production. However, there are climate change scenarios in which temperatures will increase with variable rainfall. This will greatly affect the plant pathogen profiles affecting crops like rice in CR.

While the most important rice production areas of CR have access to irrigation, these areas are more limited, and plants under water stress can be more susceptible to pathogens. Recently, it was found that rice can be infected by Fusarium proliferatum (Fp). However, little is known regarding its potential impact on rice and the potential of this fungus to produce mycotoxins.

To initiate studies under the scenarios related to climate change, greenhouse and laboratory studies were conducted to examine the effect of variety, seed treatment, irrigation, and/or pathogen isolates on the initial stages of rice development (first 30 days). In laboratory studies, seeds were inoculated with one of ten isolates of Fp and results indicated that all isolates caused disease and reduced root and shoot development-although there were differences among isolates. Furthermore, all isolates were capable of producing fumonisins, toxins that had not been reported to occur in rice in the country. Greenhouse studies examined the effect of variety (2, Palmar-18 and Puitá-INTA), irrigation (flooded conditions or no flooding) and seed treatment (5, Butrol 31.5 EC, Mertec 50SC (Thiabendazol), Trichoderma sp., oil of Thuja occidentalis) on infection and disease development. As expected, flooding reduced root growth and results indicated the Mertec 50SC provided the best control under flooded conditions. However, similar findings were not noted in non-flooded conditions. Overall, results suggested that Fp has potential impacts on rice production in Costa Rica. With the recent discovery that Fp can infect soybean in US, further research is needed to examine the impact of cropping system and the role of extreme events (temperature and/or moisture) in order to successfully mitigate the impact of Fp in CR under changing climatic conditions.

1 Seed and Grain Research Centre (CIGRAS) and2 Centre for Research on Crop Protection (CIPROC), University of Costa Rica, San José, Costa Rica



Sustainable Ancient Water Management and Resilience to Climate Change in Sri Lanka

Ranjana U. K. Piyadasa1, M. Weerasinghe2, L. Weerakoon3, R. Somadewa4, and M. P. Vipulasena5

Water satisfies a basic human need and is a vital resource for the proper functioning of all sectors of Sri Lanka’s economy. The country is blessed with freshwater from abundant rain and inland waters. In the global context in terms of access to freshwater, it is classified under little or no water scarcity category. However, the potential impacts of climate change on rainfall system could imperil the island’s water resources that are almost totally dependent on rainfall.

Generally, Sri Lanka has an annual rainfall of 2,000 mm and it may vary from 500 mm to 5,000 mm in range. Sufficient quantity of surface water is available during wet periods but within the dry zone, all surface water sources are dried during the dry periods. Water management and rainwater harvesting have a long history in Sri Lanka using the irrigation tank system called “tank cascade system”. This ancient water management network was based on collecting additional surface water runoff and using it for irrigation during dry periods.

This research study was conducted in Palugaswewa area in the dry zone of Sri Lanka from June to December 2012 to identify present water management concept in the ancient tank cascade system. Field survey was conducted within the cascade and maps were prepared using GIS. Experienced and anticipated climate change impacts on the communities were discussed and water users selected and assessed those sustainable water management practices most suitable for climate change adaptation in their context. The research revealed that ancient tank cascade system still functions despite several management and administration failures. Upper catchment deforestation in the cascade was badly damaged by the surrounding community. Most of the tanks in the cascade were not functioning because of poor management and siltation due to soil erosion from the upper catchment. Some of the tanks within the cascade water capacity were not enough for cultivation due to siltation of the tanks. These tank cascade village irrigation areas are located in the dry zone of Sri Lanka and in the poorest areas in the country. Therefore, there is a real need to harness the beneficial aspects of cascading systems for combating droughts as well for alleviating poverty. Based on the form and appearance of the Sri Lankan ancient tank cascade system, it is likely that it can be used as an ideal rainwater harvesting technology.

One of the predicted adverse impacts of global climate change is the exacerbation of extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods in the study area. Therefore, in a drought-prone and flood-prone area, improvement of cascade systems may prove beneficial because of its time-tested buffering capacity.

1 Department of Geography, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka Email: [email protected] Faculty of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka3 Sewa Lanka Foundation, Sri Lanka4 Postgraduate Institute of Archeology, University of Kelaniya, Sri Lanka5 Education Department, Sri Lanka



Increasing Rice Productivity in Submergence-Prone Areas Vulnerable to Climate Change in Southeast Asia

Romeo V. Labios1, David J. Mackill2, Abdelbagi M. Ismail3, Thelma R. Paris3, and Digna O. Manzanilla3

Flash floods, leading to inundation of up to two weeks, can occur at any crop growth stage, sometimes more than once, resulting in severe yield losses in rice. Despite the risk, farmers continue to grow susceptible modern varieties, local landraces with low yield, or leave the field idle and wait for another season. Six mega-varieties introgressed with SUB1 gene (IR64, Swarna, Sambha-Mahsuri, BR11, TDK and CR1009) and other lines possessing the SUB1 gene were disseminated in Southeast Asia and their adoption was facilitated. On-station adaptive yield trials, subjected to normal and flooded conditions, and on-farm researcher and farmer-managed participatory varietal selection (PVS) followed by preference analysis and sensory evaluation were implemented. Following complete flooding for 8 to 13 days, varieties with SUB1 had 1- 3 t ha-1 yield advantage over normal varieties. Results from PVS showed Swarna-Sub1 (5.2 t ha-1 yield) was most preferred in North Vietnam, while IR64-Sub1 (3.7 t ha-1 yield) was most preferred in Central Vietnam. TDK1-Sub1, developed from the popular variety TDK1, and PSBRc68 are top choices in Laos and Northeast Thailand. IR64 was the second most popular variety after Ciherang; thus, acceptance of IR64-Sub1 is faster in Indonesia. In the Philippines, IR49830-7-1-2-3 and BR11-Sub1 yielded 4.2 and 3.8 t ha-1, respectively, and were most preferred. PSBRc18 was introgressed with SUB1 gene and is being field tested under the National On-Farm Adaptability Yield Trials of Stress Tolerant Rice led by the 15 Department of Agriculture Regional Field Units Research Centers in partnership with Philippine Rice Research Institute (PhilRice) and IRRI. Participatory varietal selection enabled farmers to identify varieties that are either similar to or better than their best local varieties but with tolerance to flooding. Varietal registration and accreditation of PSB Rc 68 (Sacobia) and IR64-Sub1 (Submarino1) for the Philippines, IR70213-9-CPA-12-UBN-2-1-3-1 (INPARA-3), IR64-Sub1 (INPARA-4) and Swarna-Sub1 (INPARA-5) for Indonesia, PSB Rc68 (Shwepyi tan) and Swarna-Sub1 (Yemyoke khan saba) for Myanmar were made possible. Thus, commercialization and support from national governments were achieved. Such successful undertakings can be possible only through the combined efforts of farmers, local officials, collaborators, scientists, and other government and non-government organizations. These Sub1 varieties provide considerable security for farmers in flood-prone areas, and the PVS and feedback approaches enabled swift recognition of desirable varieties suitable for local farmers’ needs. The approach also helped speed up the release and commercialization of the new varieties to ensure sufficient seed supply for farmers.

Keywords: participatory varietal selection, SUB1 gene, submergence-prone areas, submergence tolerant rice, climate change

1 University of the Philippines at Los Baños, College, Laguna, 4031 Philippines2 MARS Food, Davis, California, United States of America3 International Rice Research Institute, DAPO 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines

Parallel Session 2C: Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture


Response of Agro-Pastoral Indigenous Communities to the Cascading Effects of Climate Change-Studies from Sikkim, Eastern Himalayas, India

Tenzing Ingty

Studies in the Himalayas have shown that the mean temperatures have increased by about 1.5°C between 1982 to 2006 (i.e., three times the global average) yet there is very limited scientific data on climate change for the Himalayas. On the other hand, there is a wealth of information in the form of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) based on observations, perceptions, coping strategies, and experiences over the years with the indigenous communities that inhabit the harsh environs of the Himalayas.

The study site falls within the administrative boundary of the state of Sikkim in northeast India. Sikkim has unique biodiversity since it falls within the Himalayan Global Biodiversity Hotspot and in the transition zone of biogeographic zone 2C-Central Himalaya and the extreme southern fringe of the Turkmenian subregion of the Palaearctic region. Within Sikkim, the study covered two valleys in the north district—Lachen Valley and Lhonak Valley. The region is inhabited by two indigenous communities namely the transhumance Lachenpas and the nomadic Yak herders or Dokpas who live in the 2000-7000 meter zone. Both communities move with the seasons and depend on the biodiversity of their surroundings for their survival. Thus they have a deep understanding of nature which has resulted in a wealth of TEK based on their observations and experience on the obvious link between changing climatic conditions and biodiversity. Both communities still maintain their indigenous political institution, the Dzumsa, which primarily manages the patterns of utilization of natural resources. In harsh environments like the alpine Himalayas social systems or institutions like the Dzumsa play a vital role by regulating resource use in a way that prohibits over use and provides social, economic, and environmental security to the people.

Participatory Rural Appraisal approach was used for six focus group discussions and 44 household surveys were conducted using semi-structured questionnaires. The observations conducted in the communities were very detailed and provided numerous insights into local concerns. The data clearly suggested that the local people have been experiencing changes in climatic conditions and in their resource landscape including grazing pastures and agriculture. The study also documented community response and their adaptation strategies, particularly with the help of their traditional governing institution, the Dzumsa. . The study recorded the adaptation strategies of both individual (agent) and institution (agency) to the climate change impacts. For instance 80 percent of the Lachenpa respondents reported that they were able to grow many new crops from lower altitudes like maize, cabbage, and pumpkin which could not be cultivated at that altitude in the past. One of the most significant impacts that climate change has had on the pastoral community is the drying up of their grazing pasturesThe study suggests that indigenous people have much to offer to the regional and global discourse on and strategies to address climate change. It is important that such local perceptions, adaptations, responses, and solutions are kept in mind, while also being inclusive of the traditional institutions, to effectively develop and implement adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: Himalayas, climate change, traditional ecological knowledge, indigenous communities

Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Regional Office Eastern Himalaya/Northeast India, Gangtok, Sikkim, India



Documenting and Promoting Indigenous Agricultural Knowledge and Climate Change Adaptation in Selected Areas in the Philippines: Toward Enhancing Community-Level Food Security

Oscar B. Zamora, Lucille Elna P. de Guzman, Gloria Luz M. Nelson, Rosario V. Tatlonghari, Maria Victoria O. Espaldon, Joan Pauline P. Talubo, and Ma. Rowena Beatriz Q. Inzon

This study aimed to document and communicate the indigenous knowledge for climate change adaptation from different areas of the country. The indigenous farming practices of the Bagobos and the Manobos in Davao, the Suludnons and Atis in Iloilo and Ivatans in Batanes were documented. Documentation was done through non-structured interviews of key informants, focus group discussions, and actual observation of the area/people. Secondary agricultural and climatic data of the specific area for the past 5-10 years supplement the primary data. Findings show that the indigenous agricultural practices on cropping systems and livestock rearing enabled the indigenous people to sustain food production even with climate variability in the past. Among their long-term adaptation strategies are the maintenance of a high level of crop and livestock diversity, low dependency on external inputs and instead relying more on the available resources, longer fallow period, and use of traditional varieties as well as indigenous storage practices. Indigenous groups in Davao also have risk warning signals through behaviors of animals and positions of heavenly bodies that they interpret for weather and disaster information. Ivatans adapt the orientation of their farms on the basis of wind patterns. The Sulodnons and Atis of Iloilo, as well as the other IP groups practice multiple cropping. These and other adaptation strategies emphasize that indigenous knowledge can significantly contribute to the existing body of knowledge on building climate change-resilient farming communities which could help ensure a food-secure future for Filipino households. There is a need to continuously document, promote, validate, and exchange such knowledge toward its sustainable use.


University of the Philippines Los Baños


Building Climate Resilient Communities through Community Based Adaptation Planning and Action: Some Empirical Evidences from Nepal

D. Uprety and R. Subedi

The study is based on the review of 511 Community Adaptation Plans (CAPs) prepared during the project implementation by the Livelihood and Forestry Programme (LFP) between 2009 and 2011 in 15 districts of Nepal. Preliminary findings from the review revealed that people in the communities give a high p¬riority for climate education (37%), control planning (14%), use of low emission energy products like biogas, improved cooking (17%), water security (15%), and food security (12%).

It also uses results from a study conducted by the Multistakeholders Forestry Programme that identified local adaptation practices in three districts representing three ecological zones of Nepal. The study recorded a number of local adaptation practices such as on-farm and off-farm quick impact related activities (e.g. organic farming, livestock farming, and home garden), rainwater harvesting, establishment of community seed bank and agricooperatives. The study is anticipated to bring a number of insightful reflections based on empirical studies, as well as action and learning methods with local communities.

Keywords: climate change, forest, local adaptation, livelihoods, resilient

Multi Stakeholders Forestry Programme, Nepal

Parallel Session 3A: Institutional and Economic Aspects of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation


Attitudes towards Flooding Risks in Vietnam: Implications for Insurance

Peter Martinsson1, Pham Khanh Nam2, Nghi Truong2, and Ferdinand Vieider3

The poor of the world are increasingly exposed to weather shocks, which destroy their very livelihood, destroy their health and claim many lives, making a regular life impossible. Index-based insurance is introduced in Vietnam to provide safeguards against external shocks that can affect the poor’s income, wealth, and very livelihood. By insuring specific crops, it is circumscribed and affordable, while at the same time sheltering the insured from the potential loss of their harvest, thus smoothing out income fluctuations. However, insurance take-up has been exceedingly low, even though the policies were generally subsidized and offered below actuarially fair levels.

In this research we attempt to find out whether a farmer is unwilling to buy insurance against an adverse event because a) he estimates the probability correctly, but behaves in a risk seeking way towards this event; b) he acts in a risk neutral or even risk averse way, but underestimates the probability of the adverse event taking place; or c) a combination of the two, such that either the underestimation of the probabilities or the willingness to bet are so strong as to dominate the relation.

To measure risk and uncertainty attitudes, we look at farmers’ betting on certain types of uncertainty over others, in the specific context of flooding in the Vietnamese Mekong delta. In addition, we disentangle the separate effect of subjective probabilities of flooding and the willingness to bet on them, or source preference.

We find that while our respondents do generally exhibit a source preference for betting on water levels, this does not seem to drive potential low insurance uptake. The low insurance uptake seems rather to be driven by subjective probabilities attributed to high water, with the probability of flooding being systematically underestimated.

We bring direct evidence on why micro-insurance take-up may be low in some cases. This may in turn help to develop better communication and sales strategies for such risk management instruments. We add to the decision making literature by bringing evidence on the validity of the source function argument from an applied real world context. We add to the debate in behavioral economics more in general, by linking preferences and beliefs of subjects to their real world behavior.

1 University of Gothenburg2 University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City3 Social Science Research Center Berlin



Strengthening Capability of State Universities on Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance their Role in Climate Change Adaptation for Agriculture

Amparo M. Wagan1, Jose Nestor M. Garcia, and Simplicio M. Medina

Agricultural universities in the Philippines have a number of important roles to play in climate change adaptation. This paper aims to discuss experiences in capability enhancement of selected agricultural state universities and colleges (SUCs) in the use of the Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment for Different Agroecosystems (VAST-Agro), a vulnerability assessment methodology developed for agriculture. It also aims to show the use of the VAST-Agro that may lead to better involve state universities in developing site-specific interventions for agriculture in their regions. At least two representatives from six SUCs were trained to implement the VAST-Agro in different production areas including vegetable and strawberry in Benguet, mango production in Pangasinan and Iloilo, banana production in Mindoro, Bukidnon, and Iloilo and coconut-based production system in Quezon. The VAST-Agro is a quick process that involves community participation in data collection, thus captures community experience on climate hazards and describes the effects of climate hazards on food production areas and on specific crops. It also reveals local knowledge, practices, tools, and techniques for coping with climate stress; the effects on crops and crop production systems; and the available and missing local support services to overcome the effects of climate stress. More importantly the VAST-Agro provides opportunity to identify site-specific interventions for climate change adaptation in agriculture. It also provides a vulnerability index which can be used by the local planners as a basis for prioritizing production areas for intervention. The tools and techniques for data collection using the VAST-Agro and relevant findings on vulnerability assessment in different crop production areas are highlighted in this paper.

Keywords: climate change, vulnerability index, adaptive capacity, agroecosystem

Agricultural Systems Cluster, University of the Philippines Los Baños

1 Coordinating Author, Email: [email protected]; [email protected]



Climate Change and Food Security: Challenges, Success, and Opportunities in Bangladesh

M. Alamgir 1

Bangladesh, with a population of 160 million living in an area of 147,000 sq km with 8.20 million hectares of cultivable land, is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate risks. Agriculture contributes about 20.23 percent of total GDP (2009-2010) and is the topmost priority sector for poverty alleviation, economic growth and food security. It generates two-thirds of total employment and contributes 7.34 percent of total export earnings. This paper presents an overview of the challenges and success of food security efforts with additional future opportunity in Bangladesh through adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change. A warmer and wetter future climate that goes beyond historical variations will exacerbate existing climatic risks, increase vulnerability from flooding and storm surges, and reduce the extent of arable land due to sea level rise and salinity intrusion. Two-thirds of the country is located just above sea level and in the estuary of three large rivers – Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna. During the heavy river floods in 1992 and 1998, more than half of the national territory was flooded. In 1970 and 1991, tropical cyclones forced storm surges that killed some hundred thousand people. The storm of 1970 forced a storm surge of 9 meters; houses, crops and hundreds of thousands of livestock were swept away, exerting pressure on national food security.

Among the challenges Bangladesh has to face are too much water during monsoon and water shortage problems during dry season. On average, up to two-thirds of Bangladesh is inundated by floods once every three to five years, causing substantial damage to infrastructure, housing, agriculture, and livelihoods. Low-lying coastal areas are also at risk from tidal floods and severe cyclones. Once every three years, a severe cyclone makes landfall on the Bangladesh coastline, creating storm surges that are sometimes in excess of 10 meters. Saline water intrusion into freshwater aquifers and land submergence also devastate crops and impact on livelihoods in low-lying coastal areas. In addition, seasonal droughts occasionally hit the northwestern region, with uncontrolled water withdrawal by the upper riparian country (India) worsening the situation.

Bangladesh has also achieved a lot in dealing with climate change and food security, especially in adaptation. Preparation of the National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA), Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, National Food Policy, National Water Management Plan, National Water Policy, Coastal Zone Policy, etc., has allowed for due attention to be given to ensuring food security and coping with the adverse impacts of climate change. Investments during the past 50 years have increased the country’s resilience to climate-related hazards. Since the 1960s, the government has invested on structural (polders, cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant housing) and non-structural (early warning, awareness raising) disaster reduction measures and enhanced disaster preparedness systems. These investments have significantly reduced damages and losses from extreme climatic events and have helped ensure food production. In addition, farmers have adapted their farming systems to the “normal floods” by switching from low-yielding rice to high-yielding rice crops and other indigenous means of adaptation. As a result, agricultural production has risen over the past few decades, thereby creating more opportunities for feeding the increasing population.

1Senior Scientific Officer, Water Resources Planning Organization, Ministry of Water Resources House No. 103, Road No. 1, Banani, Dhaka-1213, Bangladesh Email: [email protected]



Household Economic Losses: A Case Study of Thailand’s 2011 Flood

Orapan Nabangchang Srisawalak1, Dale Whittington2, Maura Allaire2, Prinyarat Leangcharoen3, and Rawadee Jarungpattanakit4

Thailand’s flood in 2011, considered to be the worst flood the country has experienced in 70 years, offers a unique window into flood management challenges, particularly for South and Southeast Asian countries experiencing rapid population growth and facing the combined threats of land subsistence, increased extreme rainfall and storm events, and rising sea levels.

To develop an in-depth understanding of the direct and indirect costs that households experienced before, during, and after the flood, in this paper we examine the magnitude and composition of the economic losses experienced by 600 households from the 2011 flood in three of the worst hit neighborhoods of Bangkok and two vicinity provinces. We explored the actions people took before the flood arrived, direct and indirect costs incurred during the flood, financial expenses they expected to incur after the floodwaters receded and health-related costs. As Thailand’s 2011 flood was perhaps the first such flooding disaster to hit a population connected to the web with smart phones, internet access as well as information from multiple sources, we also examined the extent to which the availability of information had any impact on measures people made that might prevent or reduce economic damages.

We find that the vast majority of households incurred modest losses, while a small portion had very high expenses. Median losses were over USD 2,200, while only 10% of households had losses in excess of USD 2,800. As a proportion of annual expenditure, only a small minority of households incurred extremely high losses. Median losses as a percentage of annual expenditure were 35%. Median losses as a percentage of house value were 7%.

The vast majority of household losses were incurred in the form of economic damages after the flood. Median ex-post damages such as damages to vehicles, housing, and the cost of repair, cleaning and replacement were around USD 1,026/household. Only 5% of households had ex-post damage in excess of USD 8,000.

Housing damage was the largest cost component and differed greatly between households ranging from USD 600 to USD 8,000. Particularly high damages were incurred for replacement of furniture, cleaning of home, and replacement of electrical appliances. Higher income households had higher total health costs, which were mostly direct medical costs. In contrast, indirect costs associated with lost wages were greater for the lower income households.

The analysis of the composition of household economic losses particularly when disaggregated by different periods of the floods and by different income groups should support decision making process on targeting assistance in terms of type, timing and target groups. Our findings also suggest the need to rethink the types of information provided, since clearly the problem is not due to lack of early warning, but rather the quality and accuracy of conflicting information from different sources.

1 EEPSEA2 University of North Carolina3 Thailand Development Research Institute4 Ritsuemaikan Asia Pacific University

Parallel Session 3B: Institutional and Economic Aspects of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation


Understanding the Capacity of Policy Makers to Access and Use Climate Change Research Outputs for National Development: The Case of Zimbabwe

Ignatius Gutsa

The challenges of climate change facing developing countries has led to many stakeholders to call for the development of national climate change strategic plans as a way of trying to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. However one of the main challenges facing policy makers in developing countries is access to timely and accurate research evidence in order to come up with evidence informed policies to deal with pressing issues. This study was carried out in Zimbabwe examining the capacity of policy makers to access and use climate change research outputs for national development. Zimbabwe is one of the countries without a national climate change policy document to guide the government in the climate change response process. Therefore understanding the capacity of policy makers to access and use climate change research outputs is crucial as such evidence can be used in policy-making processes to guide sector specific strategies in climate change mitigation and adaptation in order to secure the livelihoods of the poor.

A review of written policy outputs in the form of policy briefings, select committee reports, draft legislation on climate change was conducted to assess use of evidence by policy makers. These documents were also distributed to expert reviewers for their opinion on the quality of references, bias and clarity etc. Interviews were also carried out to evaluate the policy maker’s ability to access/use climate change research. This was done by asking policy makers about the sources of information they use to understand climate change as well as their understanding of the quality of these briefings. Moreover, policy makers were given tasks in order to evaluate their ability to complete them. This was achieved by giving them a range of sources of information about climate change and asking them to evaluate how useful they would be. They were also asked to use the internet to find information on climate change to see how well they are able to search for good quality information. A diagnostic test was administered to evaluate how well policy makers understand research methodology and/or current understanding of climate change science.

Findings show that researchers and policy makers face a number of challenges which inadvertently affect the use of evidence in the climate change policy making process. Some of these challenges are attributed to the weak and non performing economy which has created a non-conducive environment for research by minimizing avenues for accessing state of the art research around climate change issues. These challenges are manifesting themselves in poor information and communication technologies which are limiting access to databases and online sources related to climate change.

Sociology Department, University of Zimbabwe P.O Box MP167, Mt Pleasant, Harare, ZimbabweEmail: [email protected]; [email protected] Mobile: +263 773 450 359



Institutionalizing Rural Communication Services for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security: The Bangladesh Experience

Cleofe S. Torres1 and Ma. Stella C. Tirol2

Bangladesh faces a critical gap in institutional capacity to implement communication interventions that would address major challenges in the agricultural sector mainly related to the effects of climate variability and change and food security. This action research, thus, aims to institutionalize Rural Communication Services (RCS) in the Ministry of Agriculture through its Agriculture Information Services (AIS). RCS refers to the provision of interactive and participatory communication processes to satisfy the demand for knowledge and information of rural population.

Activities employed involved appreciative inquiry, institutional mapping analysis, baseline assessment, capacity building on communication planning, integration of ICTs in communication approaches, advocacy with policy makers, installation of a Community Rural Radio (CRR) in the pilot site, establishment of community-based management organizations for RCS and CRR, and linkage with rural development projects in the field.

The project generated the following results: (a) improved institutional and local capacities in the design and implementation of communication strategies and plans in support of extension and advisory services on priority issues such as food security and climate change adaptation; (b) initial establishment of RCS based on the use of CRR and complementary communication materials to serve agricultural priorities and to strengthen linkages among agricultural extension, research institutions, information services, NGOs, and farmers; (c) strategic communication plan on management of saline-tolerant rice variety based on the use of CRR; and (d) lessons learned through monitoring of results and recommendations for upscaling and sustainability of services and activities.

The institutionalization process at the national and local levels encountered both enabling factors and constraints. The former include (a) openness of AIS to shift from top-down to bottom-up approach; (b) understanding and appreciation of key ministry and government officials of the systematic process involved in RCS; and (c) willingness of the government to maintain the infrastructure. Serious limitations have to do with institutional culture and political nature of the institutions involved. Nonetheless, lessons learnt can be cornerstones for the integration of RCS into development program planning both at national and local levels.

1Professor and 2Associate Professor, College of Development Communication, University of the Philippines Los Baños



Agriculture, Climate Change, Germplasm and Seeds, and Intellectual Property Rights

Krishna Ravi Srinivas, PhD1

Access to germplasm for plant breeders to develop climate-ready plant varieties and access to seeds of these varieties are important for farmers for both mitigation of and adaptation to climate change. However, Intellectual Property Rights (IPR), resulting in denial of or restrictions in seed and germplasm access can hamper these strategies. This paper addresses these issues and examines the role of IPR in facilitating technology development and transfer in agriculture, with seeds and germplasm as case studies. It points out that IPR patents can create an ‘anti-commons’ situation and can result in constraints in the development and distribution of climate-ready crops. It is pointed out that while some of the fears expressed by civil society groups like ETC Group are unwarranted, the issue deserves attention as the increase in number of patents held by the private sector can result in lesser Freedom to Operate for public sector plant breeding.

This paper addresses the complex nature of the issues related to IPR, including access, freedom to operate, patents on genes, and patents on seeds. It provides a hypothetical case study and suggests that alternatives like Open Source, Open Innovation models can be explored. It points out that participatory plant breeding can be combined with modern biotechnology to develop suitable varieties.

After examining the issues, this paper calls for a pragmatic approach to this issue and suggests that encouragement of public sector plant breeding and making germplasm available under the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture. It points out that this complex issue calls for more than one approach and that capacity building, reinvigoration of national agricultural research innovation systems and south-south collaboration can be helpful in addressing this issue.

1 Associate Fellow, Research and Information System for Developing Countries (RIS), New Delhi, India Email: [email protected]; [email protected]



Governing Small-scale Aquaculture for Climate Change Adaptation and Food Security in the Philippines

Pepito R. Fernandez

This paper is a review and critical analysis of relevant social and environmental science literature on mechanisms and processes of governance and management of small-scale aquaculture in the Philippines in the context of the challenges in meeting food security needs and climate change adaptation.

The aquaculture sector is rapidly expanding. Government and business groups are expected to channel most of its resources to further such growth. Aquaculture can provide food with a low carbon footprint and fish-food is highly efficient at converting grain to protein. Such benefits, however, are threatened by the ongoing ill effects of climate change, as well as conflicts over land use and coastal use policies.

The first part of the presentation introduces key concepts and terms. In the process it describes the threats posed by climate change and the related vulnerabilities and challenges faced by small scale aquaculture and coastal communities in the Philippines. The second section explains and analyzes the major policies, institutions, and actor relationships that govern and manage small scale aquaculture and food systems in the Philippines. Highlighted in the paper are some of the main features, best practices and institutional challenges of small-scale aquaculture governance and management systems in the context of enhancing climate change adaptation and achieving food security.

Division of Social Sciences-CASUniversity of the Philippines Visayas Miagao, Iloilo 5023-A

Fax/Phone: +63 (33) 315 9494Email: [email protected]



Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability Assessments, Economic and Policy Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Selected Coastal Areas in Indonesia and the Philippines

Asa Jose U. Sajise, PhD

The study covered selected coastal communities in Jakarta Bay in Indonesia, and Honda Bay and Tayabas Bay in the Philippines. The impacts from three climate hazards affecting coastal communities, namely, typhoon/flooding, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion, were documented. It also analyzed planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement as well as the autonomous response of households to protect and insure themselves from these hazards. It employed a variety of techniques ranging from participatory-based approaches such as community hazard mapping and FGDs to regression techniques to analyze the results of the household surveys.

Results show that indeed households in coastal communities face a confluence of risks and often adapt simultaneously to these risks. These risks have most impacts on livelihood; the amount of foregone income due to these risks is twice higher than the value of damages from loss of assets, including damage to houses. These impacts would eventually have effects on household consumption. Using Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) as the vulnerability measure, it was found that the incidence of vulnerable households is highest in Palawan (56%), followed by Batangas (42%), and then Indonesia (35%). The mean vulnerability estimate for Palawan is 0.51, which means that on average, the probability that households will fall below the minimum consumption level at which they will be considered poor is 51 percent. For Batangas, the mean vulnerability is 0.38, while Indonesia has a mean estimate of 0.37.

Various planned adaptation options, which communities and local governments can implement, were also studied using cost-effectiveness analysis. A consistent and common result across three sites is that ecosystem based approaches (or natural barriers such as mangroves) are more cost effective than hard infrastructure investments. There also seems to be a preponderance of protective measures when, in fact, the main impact or risks from these hazards is really on the livelihoods of coastal-based communities. In Batangas, it was found that livelihood diversification is a viable planned adaptation measure.

Factors that determine autonomous or private responses to climate hazards were also assessed. Specifically, geographical and spatial differences in adaptation patterns were found, suggesting that households react rationally to the degree of threats from the hazards. For instance, households near riverbanks are more likely to employ autonomous adaptation strategies against flooding. Evidence that planned adaptation “crowds out” private or autonomous adaptation was also found. Presence of natural barriers such as mangrove and riverbank rehabilitation schemes result in less likelihood of autonomous adaptation to flooding and saltwater intrusion, respectively. Income from external sources, such as disaster relief, also tends to crowd out autonomous adaptation. Social capital, which was represented by the number of people of whom the respondents can surely avail of loans, had a positive effect on the likelihood of autonomous adaptation. There is also some gender dimension in adaptation. In particular, a higher number of female members in the household reduce the likelihood of autonomous adaptation to flooding and typhoon, while it is positively correlated with adaptation to saltwater intrusion

Parallel Session 3C: Institutional and Economic Aspects of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) - World Fish


Addressing Linkages between Climate Change and Food Security through Top-down and Bottom-up Impact Assessments, Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis, Community-based Adaptation, and Improved Socio-Institutional Mechanisms: FAO’s AMICAF Framework

Hideki Kanamaru1, Tatsuji Koizumi1, Eulito Bautista2, and Roberto C. Sandoval Jr.2

This paper discusses a comprehensive framework by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations that aims to address climate change impacts and adaptation planning targeted at improving the food security of vulnerable household groups. The Analysis and Mapping of Impacts under Climate Change for Adaptation and Food Security (AMICAF) Framework is currently being implemented as a project in the Philippines (in cooperation with the Department of Agriculture) and a Latin American country. AMICAF has four steps: I) Climate Change Impacts Assessment, II) Food Insecurity Vulnerability Analysis, III) Livelihood Adaptation to Climate Change and IV) Awareness Raising and Institutional Mechanisms.

The project starts with the generation of downscaled climate change scenarios and with a robust assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture (Step 1) using FAO’s new toolbox called MOSAICC or Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change. MOSAICC is an integrated package of models for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture, including the variations in crop yields and their effects on national economies. This FAO toolbox has four components. The CLIMATE component facilitates the preparation of statistically downscaled climate data using an adaptation of a portal developed with the EU ENSEMBLES project. The HYDROLOGY component estimates water resources under future climate conditions and uses STREAM, a grid-based precipitation run-off model, to simulate the discharge rate in large catchment areas. The CROPS component simulates crop yields under future climate change and technological progress scenarios. It uses WABAL (crop specific water balance model), the industrial version of FAO’s AgroMetShell. The ECONOMY component makes use of a Provincial Agricultural Market (PAM) Model to evaluate the economic impacts of future crop yields and water resources projections.

The outcome from the preceding part or Step 1 will feed into an assessment of current and future household vulnerability to food insecurity as a result of climate change (Step 2) through the development of an analytical econometrics model using the best available national household datasets. Vulnerability to food insecurity is defined in AMICAF as a household’s probability to fall or stay below a food security threshold. Step 3 will involve a community-based approach to identifying, testing and evaluating adaptation options that increase the ability of vulnerable groups to deal with the impact of climate change on food security. The results of the bottom-up assessments in this step will be analyzed in conjunction with that of Step 1 (top-down) to come up with a complementary set of livelihood adaptation options. These adaptation options will be tested and evaluated in the Camarines Sur (Bicol Region) and Surigao del Norte (Caraga Region) provinces of the Philippines. Step 4 is geared towards enhanced awareness on impacts and vulnerability, and improved institutional mechanisms to conduct/use assessments. It will involve institutional analysis, policy simulations using a Partial Equilibrium Model, and knowledge management.

As a global output, guidelines will be developed for implementation in other countries of the integrated approach for climate change and food security, and promotion of the AMICAF framework.

1Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy2Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Manila, Philippines




Linking Climate Change, Rice Yield, and Migration: The Philippine Experience

Flordeliza H. Bordey1, Cheryll C. Launio1, Eduardo Jimmy P. Quilang1

Nimfa B. Ogena2, and Charis Mae A. Tolentino3

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its impacts on rice productivity, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Productivity variables such as rice yield and farm revenue, as instrumented by weather variables, were used to explain migration in a fixed–effects two–stage least squares estimation. Results show that the combined effects of increasing minimum temperature during January to June and rising share of wet days in a year have reduced yield by 195 kilograms per hectare, or an aggregate of 742,000 metric tons production loss from 1995 to 2009. Similarly, the increase in share of wet days in a year has reduced gross revenue by PhP 1,352 per hectare, or a total of PhP 5.14 billion lost revenues in the fifteen-year period. These have led to an increase in the numbers of Overseas Filipino Workers by 99,000 to 102,000 in the same period. We have also shown that overseas migration of female workers was more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. On the other hand, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues acted as a constraint to domestic migration.

Keywords: climate change, migration, Philippine rice, productivity, gender

1 Philippine Rice Research Institute Maligaya, Science City of Muñoz, Nueva Ecija, Philippines. 2 University of the Philippines Population Institute 2nd Flr. Palma Hall, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines.3 University of the Philippines College of Economics and Management Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines



Adaptation to Sea Level Rise in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta: Should a Sea Dike be Built?

Vo Thanh Danh

Vietnam is one of five countries in the world most likely to be seriously affected by the impacts of global climate change and any consequent rises in sea level (SLR). The boundaries of the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) are marked by the sea and so this area faces a risk of SLR due to global climate change. The necessity of investing in creating a concrete sea dike system in the VMD is still the subject of debate. This study was conducted in Tra Vinh province, which borders the Southeast Asian Sea and so represents an area of the VMD that would typically be affected by an increase in SLR. The purpose of this study is to conduct an economic valuation of creating a concrete sea dike system as an adaptation measure to counter the impacts of a rise in sea level. A risk-based cost-benefit analysis (CBA) framework was used. It uses an ex-ante approach with risk considerations for storms, floods, and salinity by specifying probability distribution functions in a simulation process so as to incorporate these risk factors into the analysis. The study developed five dike options associated with three hypotheses of the scale of different sea dike systems: option 1 represented a dike that could withstand the severity of a storm that occurs once every 20 years, option 2 and option 3 represented a dike that could withstand the severity of a storm that occurs once every 50 years, and option 4 and option 5 represented a dike that could withstand the severity of a storm that occurs once every hundred years. The results showed that the benefits of avoided storm and flood impacts dominated the dike options. The benefit of salinity avoided was also valuable, with avoided losses to annual rice and aquaculture productivity amounting to USD331.25 per ha and USD915 per ha, respectively. Based on the Net Present Value (NPV) decision rule, the results indicated that dike options should be recommended as an appropriate adaptation measure for the VMD’s particular geographic situation. The larger in scale the dike system options were, the higher the estimated NPVs (ENPV) were. Of the dike alternatives applicable to the VMD, initially small-scale dikes that could be subsequently heightened should be a priority choice if the impacts of SLR focus mainly on storms, floods, and salinity factors. The sensitivity analyses showed that the ENPVs of dike options were very sensitive to changes in discount rate but were not at all sensitive to increases in salinized areas. The findings provide evidence to support the necessity of the construction of a concrete sea dike system in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, given the context of global climate change.

School of Economics and Business Administration, Can Tho University, Vietnam



Parallel Session 4A: Systems and Tools for Analyzing Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

Eliciting Factors affecting Fish Kill Events in Taal Lake through Participatory Approaches: A Tool for the Development of a Predictive Fish Kill Model

Damasa B. Magcale-Macandog, Christian Paul P. de la Cruz, Jennifer D. Edrial, Marlon A. Reblora, Arnold R. Salvacion, Jaderick P. Pabico, Teodorico L. Marquez, Jr., Paula Beatrice M. Macandog, and Diezza Khey B. Perez

To capture significant factors affecting the occurrence of fish kills in Taal Lake, this study endeavored to elicit relevant ecological knowledge from stakeholders through a series of participatory rural appraisal (PRA) activities. Involved as target participants were fish cage operators and caretakers, fisherfolk (involved in open fishery), and retired fishermen from selected municipalities in Batangas. These included the municipalities of Talisay, Laurel, and San Nicolas where fish-based activities are predominant.

The elicited information suggests that in the past 70 decades , Taal Lake and its adjacent land areas have undergone changes in terms of use and environmental conditions. The lake was considered much healthier during the early years (1940s to 1970s) when fish species were still diverse and abundant in the wild and the water was used for drinking and domestic activities. Agriculture was the primary activity in the land areas. The expansion of aquaculture activities in the 1980s to 1990s has provided livelihood opportunities to the local community. Many fishermen and crop farmers became fishcage operators and caretakers. However, environmental deterioration became apparent over the following years (2000s to present) as aquaculture, economic development, and population growth continued. Taal Lake is now considered to be in a state of eutrophication and occurrences of massive fish kills in recent years were experienced.

Majority of the participants claim that fish kill has been an annual phenomena in Taal Lake ever since. It occurs between the months of June and September following the long summer period and change in wind patterns. Lake overturn occurs during the rainy season when cold rainwater sinks forcing the warm bottom water laden with organic matter to rise. Fishkill phenomena are also associated with changing wind patterns including the southeasterly winds from April to May and the southwesterly winds from May to September. Another factor that causes fish kill in Taal Lake is sulfur upwelling from the craters and hot water from hydrothermal vents at the bottom of the lake. Sulfur upwelling is characterized by the sudden appearance of cleargreen water with pungent odor in specific localities within the lake and this water will be driven to neighboring localities by the prevailing wind patterns. This phenomenon is coupled with the enigmatic fish behavior of surfacing out of the water column and subsequent docking near the shores while fish inside the cages may undergo massive mortality.

Ecoinformatics Laboratory, Institute of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, College 4031, Laguna, the Philippines


The stakeholders consider fish kill as a natural phenomenon driven primarily by extreme shifts in weather conditions, underscoring a possible influence of climate change. Volcanic activity, lake overturn, poor water quality, over-stocking of fish cages, and various forms of pollution-generating anthropogenic activities were pointed out as factors for the occurrence of fish kills. Oxygenation of fish cages; transfer of fish cages to other areas; reduction and systematic arrangement of fish cages; reduced stocking density and fish feeding rates in fish cages; and proper disposal and management of wastes from domestic, industrial, and agricultural (poultry and piggery) sources are among the suggested solutions to avoid fish kill. These information will serve as one of the bases for the development of a model to predict imminent fish kills in volcanic Taal Lake. Development of an early warning system for fish kill eventis a promising approach in addressing food and environmental security issues.

Keywords: fisk kill, participatory rural appraisal, water pollution, taal lake




A System for Monitoring the Effects of Climate on the Flux and Availability of Water Resources in the Drylands of Eastern Africa

L. MacOpiyo1, G. Senay2, J. Angerer3, and W. Ekaya4

Pastoral communities live in the dry land regions of the world which make up 54% of global productive lands. These communities constantly move in search of pasture and water resources for their livestock. The Horn of Africa contains the largest grouping of pastoralists in the world. Within these pastoral environments, small ephemeral water bodies are the key sources of water for these pastoral communities due to their resilience and ability to provide water to human and livestock when most needed, and when no other major source exists. Severe shortages of water in the region due to increased frequency in the incidences of drought occasioned by climate change have made these water sources of even greater importance. As these sources are depleted during times of drought, they become the reason for conflicts amongst rival communities. It is therefore important that we know exactly the patterns of changes in these water resources in both space and time.

Satellite-based data has significantly transformed the way we are able track and estimate hydrological processes. This paper presents a methodology of using low-cost remote sensing technology and mobile-phones to monitor water availability in pastoral regions. The water sources were identified using Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) images. Rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite data was extracted for watersheds of the study region. NOAA Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) data were used to extract the climatic parameters needed to calculate reference evapotranspiration. A simple hydrologic water balance model was then developed to estimate daily waterhole depth variations. Mobile phones were utilized in this system to overcome barriers of communication from inaccessible remote locations and transmit information necessary for validation of the model.

The developed system provides a reliable, consistent and an objective mechanism to monitor availability of water for use in pastoral areas, a necessary tool to inform climate change adaptation and coping mechanisms in these areas. This system is presently being adopted by several relief agencies to inform early warning and contingency planning in the region.

Keywords: Horn of Africa, pastoralists, water monitoring, drylands, remote sensing, ICT

1 University of Nairobi, Kenya2 USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (USGS/EROS), USA3 Texas A&M University - Blackland Research Center, USA4 Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture, Regional Secretariat, Kampala, Uganda



Economy-Wide Estimates of Climate-Induced Impacts on Philippine Agriculture: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

Arvin B. Vista, PhD

This research assessed the impact of climate change to the Philippine agriculture and the economy. In particular, it employs a computable general equilibrium model for analyzing the likely extent of climate-induced impacts on the different subsectors of the Philippine agriculture and the total macroeconomic impact to the economy of the climate-induced changes in agricultural productivity, fish consumption and manufacturing output. Using five simulation scenarios (i.e., production shocks, consumption shocks, combination of production and consumption shocks, construction and manufacturing shocks, and selected combinations of these shocks), the results reveal that (a) the production and consumption shocks are expected to have a contractionary effect on real gross domestic product (GDP); (b) the expected fall in the agricultural production and manufacturing output explained most of the decline in real GDP and the increase in the general price level (consumer price index, CPI); (c) climate-induced impacts would trigger improvement in production efficiency and input intensification leading to an increase in the average return to land allocated for sugarcane, rice, and corn, which further result in gainful employment in these sectors; and d) substitution effects may occur with the decline in agricultural production thereby shifting some of the demand and consumption of land-based produce to fisheries resulting in an increase in real GDP, employment, export, and import in the fishery sectors. Overall, climate-induced impacts will result in a net loss to the Philippine economy and its key agricultural sectors in the short run period. Therefore, it is imperative for Philippine farmers and local government units to adopt mitigation measures that will lessen the impacts of climate change.

Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Economics and ManagementUniversity of the Philippines Los Baños, College, LagunaEmail: [email protected]


Parallel Session 4B: Systems and Tools for Analyzing Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerability

Methodological Framework for the Decision Support System for Climate Change Adaptation in Rainfed Rice Areas

A. A. Boling1, K. Hayashi1,2, J. G. Perez1, L. P. Llorca1, T. Ishimaru1,2, H. Sakuma3, H. Fujii2, B. A. M. Bouman1, and B. Samson1

Decision support systems (DSS) may be developed on the basis of existing knowledge and tools to improve the low and unstable rice production in rainfed areas. This paper aimed to develop the methodological framework for an integrated DSS based on seasonal weather forecast, nutrient management, and crop growth simulation models. The DSS will use statistical and systems analyses based on a combination of crop, soil, and water data from researchers’ field experiments, meteorologists’ real-time weather and seasonal weather forecast, and biophysical and socioeconomic surveys on farmers’ risk management strategies.

Field experiments on the effects of water, promising rice lines, and fertilizer management are being conducted at research stations in the Philippines, Lao PDR, and Indonesia to calibrate and to assess the performance of the crop growth model. Real-time weather data from meteorological stations will be summarized and used for crop growth model calibration and parameterization. The seasonal weather forecast will be downscaled and evaluated using real-time long-term data. The evaluated seasonal weather forecast or real-time weather will be used together with hydrological data, soil properties, and crop developmental stage as inputs in the crop growth model for simulating rice yields under potential, water- and nutrient-limited conditions in farmers’ fields. The simulated yields will be used to assess the influence of water, nutrients, and rice pests on crop yield under the forecast weather scenario.

Farm surveys are being conducted to analyze farmers’ risk management strategies used during extreme weather conditions. The results of the farm surveys will be used together with the measured crop and soil data in simulating the effect of different management strategies on yield under the forecast weather scenario. Potential and attainable rice yields will be simulated for different management practices under different scenarios of sowing dates and years. Potential management interventions to improve the low and unstable rainfed rice yields will be identified. The progress of DSS development will also be discussed.

Keywords: decision support system, crop growth model, nutrient management tool, seasonal weather forecast

1 International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) DAPO Box 7777, Metro Manila, Philippines Email: [email protected] Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8686, Japan3 Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama City, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan



Regional climate simulations: Current Performance, Key Challenges, and the Fundamental Importance of their Coupling with End User Models

Volker Wulfmeyer, PhD1

This presentation discusses the scientific approach and the tools for regional dynamical downscaling of global Earth system simulations. Downscaling is essential for the protection of the population and the environment with respect to climate variability and change, particularly in preparation for extreme events. Only high-resolution regional ensembles provide the accuracy as well as error estimates of the coupled land-surface-vegetation-atmosphere simulations, which have the potential of being beneficial for end users and decision makers.

Key processes which must be represented in the model system, such as (1) the atmospheric dynamics caused by land-surface heterogeneity and orography and (2) convection initiation leading to precipitation, are discussed. It also discusses remaining errors in regional climate simulations due to inaccuracies in model physics and the limits of predictability. For this purpose, brand-new results of the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) in Europe are presented and compared with recent CORDEX-Asia results.

Through a collaborative research project at the University of Hohenheim, the coupling of regional climate simulations with agro-economic models for some of the most important end users were accomplished. This combination of models is essential to study the impact of climate change on yield, food quality, and food security, which is one of the overarching missions of the University. Sensitivities of agricultural production and economic output for farmers with respect to regional climate changes in central Europe were presented. These can easily be adapted to other regions on Earth.

Finally, proposals for improvements of regional climate simulations focusing on critical spatial and temporal scales were made. On the spatial scale, it is necessary to perform simulations on the so-called convection-permitting scale (about 3 km) in order to improve the representation of land-surface-atmosphere feedback and precipitation. On the temporal scales and forecast ranges, the importance of seamless probabilistic climate simulations from seasonal to decadal scales were highlighted. To quote, “A fundamental way of adapting to climate change tomorrow is to adapt to climate variability today” (adapted from Arribas et al. MWR 2011).

1 Professor University of Hohenheim, Germany



Use of Statistical Downscaling and Process-Based Crop Model in Assessing Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield

Mark Jay R. Dating and Felino P. Lansigan

Climate variability characterizes the daily observations of temperature, rainfall and solar radiation which are vital in rice production. A change in these meteorological variables would result to changes in the production of rice. A study was conducted to analyze rice productivity in two sites: Los Baños, Laguna and Malaybalay, Bukidnon. Using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), climate projections of General Circulation Models (GCMs) were downscaled for baseline years, and the future periods centered on 2020, 2050 and 2080. The downscaled weather values from SDSM were then used as inputs to a process-based crop model ORYZA2000 to estimate yields and to assess the potential effect of climate change and variability on rice productivity in the selected locations. Results showed that there is a substantial increase in minimum temperature in Laguna and in Bukidnon especially during the first quarter (January-March). There is a substantial increase in maximum temperature in all months in Bukidnon. Decrease in rainfall is more likely to occur in some months in the two locations but the increase is more considerable especially during 2050 and 2080. Changes in solar radiation are prevalent with substantial increases in the two locations. In Laguna, decreasing average percent change of rice yield was observed during dry season while increasing average percent change during wet season in all periods. Highest rice productivity was projected during dry season of 2020, and during wet season of 2080. In Bukidnon, decreasing average percent change of rice yield was observed during dry and wet seasons across periods. Highest rice productivity is projected during dry and wet seasons of 2020.

Keywords: SDSM, ORYZA2000, climate variability, climate projections, rice productivity

Institute of Statistics, University of the Philippines Los Baños




Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling of Tropical Cyclones for the Agricultural Sector

Glenn S. Banaguas

Tropical cyclones cause immense impacts and risks to people and to the agricultural sector. The Track-Risk-Impact-Policy (TRIP) Modeling approach provides a dynamic way to address the threats of environmental disasters such as tropical cyclones.

Intense tropical cyclones occurring between 1950 and 2009 were assessed using decadal and monthly analyses in order to identify the tracks and hotspots.

Monte Carlo simulation was done to determine the highest risk in terms of hazard (tropical cyclones), exposure (population), and vulnerability (poverty incidence) for the risk modeling. Quantum Geographic Information Systems (QGIS) were also utilized to model the impacts (e.g. agricultural damages and losses) of the most destructive tropical cyclones. With the integration of the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA), environmental policies that respond to the catastrophic patterns and processes were expansively analyzed.

Environmental and Climate Change Research InstituteUniversity Research CenterDe La Salle Araneta University

Manila ObservatoryAteneo De Manila University


PresentationsPoster


Arranged alphabetically by country

COUNTRY POSTER TITLE AUTHOR/S INSTITUTION

Fiji Island Impacts of Climate Change: Farmers Income and Rural Livelihood in Western Viti Levu, Fiji Islands

Asinate Moroca, PhD and Isikeli Tuitubou

Department of Agriculture College of Agriculture Fisheries and Forestry Fiji National University Nasinu, Fiji Islands

Indonesia Climate Change Impacts to the Annual Production Pattern of Indonesian Jatropha Lines in Five-Year Term

Sasanti Widiarsih, Ita Dwimahyani, and Sasanti Widiarsih

Plant Breeding Unit CAIRT-NNEA Indonesia Center for Application of Isotopes and Radiation Technology National Nuclear Energy Agency

Nepal Changing Climate and Environmental Security from Sisdol Landfill Site, Kathmandu, Nepal

Binod Prasad Shah, PhD Nepal Academy of Science and Technology Kathmandu, Nepal

Pakistan Climate Change Impacts on Food and Environmental S ecurity of Pakistan

Karamat Ali Pakistan Water Partnership

Philippines Predicting the Hydrologic Response of the Laoag River Basin to Climate Change using the SWAT Model

Nathaniel Alibuyog Mariano Marcos State UniversityBatac City, Ilocos Norte

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the BS Agriculture Curriculum in Selected Commission on Higher Education Centers of Excellence In Agriculture

Violeto Coronacion, PhD Southern Luzon State University Infanta Campus

Poster Presentations


Arranged alphabetically by country

COUNTRY POSTER TITLE AUTHOR/S INSTITUTION

Philippines Climate Risk Analysis on the Province of Aurora

Sarah Lingad, Kevin Christian Valdez, Ena Lea Manalaysay, Raeyan Ramos, Vincent Belza, and Glenn Banaguas

Environmental and Climate Change Research Institute University Research Center De La Salle Araneta University

The Impacts of Livestock Carbon Footprint Mitigation and Adaptation in Salikneta, San Jose Del Monte, Bulacan

Dane Agatha Lorica and Glenn Banaguas


The Impacts of Climate Change on the Indigenous People: DUMAGATS

Abigail Salva, Catherine Santos, Trisha Santos, Kevin Lobrio, Sherome Estrella, Zendrik Zean Sioson, Glenn Nuestro, and Glenn Banaguas


The Impacts of Religiosity as a Climate Change Adaptive Capacity

Bryan Tanangonan and Glenn Banaguas


Low Carbon Economy of the De La Salle Araneta University

Michelle Cabrera, Sienna Villar, Juzzaine Zerrudo, Regina Magtaan, Rosanna Lacad, Patrick Dalmacio, Analiza Pangilinan, Nicholo Francisco, Keeshia Cuesta and Glenn Banaguas


Vietnam Vulnerability to Flood in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: Mapping and Uncertainty Assessment

Pham Dang Tri Van, Hieu Trung Nguyen, and Quoc Thanh Vo

Department for Environment and Natural Resources Management Can Tho University, Vietnam

Poster Presentations


Plenary Speakers

Profiles

Conference Organizersand Sponsors


Plenary Speakers

Dr. Paul S. Teng

Professor Paul Teng is Dean of Graduate Studies and Professional Learning, National Institute of Education (NIE); and Senior Fellow (Food Security) at the Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU).

He has over 20 years of experience on food security issues, having held positions at the WorldFish Center, Malaysia; the International Rice Research Institute; and Monsanto Company. Prof. Teng was awarded the

Eriksson Prize in Plant Pathology; and is a Fellow of the American Phytopathological Society, and The World Academy of Sciences (TWAS). He is currently Vice-Chairman, International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) and Chair, Asia Biobusiness Pte Ltd. His most recent book is BioScience Entrepreneurship in Asia and his other publications include over 250 technical papers and eight books.

Dr. Seishi Ninomiya

Dr. Seishi Ninomiya is Professor at the Institute for Sustainable Agro-ecosystem Services, the University of Tokyo, Japan, where he specializes in Agroinformatics and Biometrics His research interests include the efficient conveyance of agricultural technology to farmers, true sustainable agriculture, and the efficient evaluation of crop characteristics.

Dr. Ninomiya previously served as Director of the Department of Information Technology, National Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Ogranization in Japan from 2005 to 2010;

Senior Researcher at the same organization from 1996-2005; and Laboratory Head, at the National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES) from 1991-2006.

Prior to that, he served as Assistant Professor at the Faculty of Agriculture, The University of Tokyo from 1983-1991 after he obtained his PhD degree from the Graduate School of Agricultural Science, the University of Tokyo in 1982. He earned his MS degree in 1979 and BS degree in 1977 from the same university.


Dr. William D. Dar

Dr. William D. Dar is the Director General of the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) near Hyderabad in Andhra Pradesh, India, since January 2000. ICRISAT is a member of the CGIAR Consortium.

Dr. Dar has had a long and distinguished career as an educationist, agricultural scientist, administrator, and humanitarian in his native Philippines and abroad in the Asia Pacific region and sub-Saharan Africa. He was Chair of the Committee on Science and Technology (CST) of the

United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) from 2007 to 2009. Dr Dar has also been a member of the UN Millennium Task Force on Hunger.

Prior to joining ICRISAT, he served as Presidential Adviser for Rural Development, and Secretary of Agriculture in the Philippines (equivalent to Minister of Agriculture). Before this, he was Executive Director of the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry, and Natural Resources Research and Development (PCARRD), Director of the Bureau of Agricultural Research (BAR) of the Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) and Vice President for R&D and Professor of Benguet State University (BSU), Philippines. Dr. Dar has received numerous awards and honors, foremost of which are the Ten Outstanding Young Men (TOYM) of the Philippines, Outstanding Young Scientist of the Year, Crop Science Society of the Philippines’ Achievement Award for Research Management; Outstanding Science Administrator given by the Philippines Department of Science and Technology; Father Jose Burgos Award, Ilocos Sur’s most prestigious award for his outstanding achievement in the field of agriculture; and Indian Society of Pulses Research and Development (ISPRD) Lifetime Achievement Award. He has also received eight honorary doctorates from various state colleges and universities in the Philippines.

Dr. Reinhold G. Muschler

Dr. Reinhold G. Muschler holds the Latin American Chair for Agroecology and Agrobiodiversity at the Center for Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education (CATIE) in Costa Rica since 2009. He is a trained Geo-ecologist (University of Bayreuth, Germany) with an M.Sc. and Ph.D. in agroforestry and farming systems from the University of Florida. His area of expertise is on redesigning tropical smallholder agroecosystems and livelihoods towards improved environmental sustainability and food security under climatic stress. In order to reconcile production and protection goals, he applies agroecological principles and promotes

a wider use of agrobiodiversity in the production systems and landscapes, including underutilized crops and locally adapted varieties. For the past 20 years, on assignments with GIZ, World Bank, IFAD, FAO, CATIE, IICA and others, Dr. Reinhold has worked extensively on the diversification and management of agroforestry systems with coffee and other crops for specialty markets and labels. He has published over 50 scientific and technical papers and books, including training materials for experts, extensionists, and farmers. From this newly established position, with strategic support by the German Center for International Migration and Development (CIM), Dr. Reinhold strengthens the research and education activities of CATIE at the interface of applied agroecology and impact-oriented implementation for the benefit of the rural poor.

Plenary Speakers


Plenary Speakers

Mr. Marcial C. Amaro Jr.

Mr. Marcial C. Amaro Jr. is Director of the Ecosystems Research and Development Bureau (ERDB) of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR), Philippines. He has served the Philippine Government continuously for 31 years, all with the DENR. ERDB, which he heads, is the research arm of DENR that is principally responsible for generating information and technologies on the sustainable management of various ecosystems and natural resources. He also concurrently serves as Officer-in-Charge (OIC) at the Office of the Assistant Secretary for Field Operations of DENR.

Mr. Amaro’s immediate past posts include: OIC-Assistant Secretary for Forestry; Director of the Forest Management Bureau; Regional Executive Director, DENR MIMAROPA Region; OIC-Director, Policy Studies Service; Director, Philippine Environmental Governance Program; and Provincial Environment and Natural Resources Officer.

Mr. Amaro represents the country in the Asia-Pacific Forest Invasive Species Network; International Network for Bamboo and Rattan; Institute for Global Environmental Strategies’ Board of Trustees; and Scientific Planning Group of the Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research. He represents the DENR Secretary in the Governing Councils of the Philippine Council for Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Resources Research and Development and the Philippine Council for Aquaculture and Marine Resources Research and Development (PCAARRD), and the National Biosafety Committee of the Philippines, all under the Department of Science and Technology; and the National Organic Agricultural Board. He served as national focal person of the International Tropical Timber Organization, ASEAN Senior Official on Forestry, and alternate ASEAN Senior Official on the Environment, among others.

Mr. Amaro earned a Master’s degree in Public Management, with honors (DAP, 1999), a Graduate Diploma in Agricultural Economics (University of New England, 1989), and a BS degree in Forestry (UPLB, 1981). He has traveled extensively in major parts of the world to further specialize in remote sensing, environmental protection and natural resources management, globalization, biosafety, and other related topics.

Mr. Amaro is a Registered Professional Forester, a Career Executive Service Officer, and recognized as Most Outstanding Professional in Forestry for 2012 by the Professional Regulation Commission, Philippines. He is also a recipient of the Outstanding Public Service Award (Government Service) (UPLB-CFNRAA, 2009), Distinguished Service Award (DENR, 1997) and other various commendations and citations.

Dr. Juan M. Pulhin

Dr. Juan M. Pulhin is Professor, University of the Philippines (UP) Scientist III, and Dean of the College of Forestry and Natural Resources (CFNR) at the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB). He has over 70 technical publications, among those of note are the Adaptation Chapter, Working Group II, Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the Forest and Woodland Systems Chapter, 2006 Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, in both of which he served as one of the lead authors.

He is also involved in several climate change related research and development projects, foremost of which was the Assessment of Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation to Climate Change in Selected Watersheds and Communities in Southeast Asia. He is co-editor of the book Climate Change and Vulnerability published in 2008 by Earthscan and the two-volume book entitled Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: Issues and Challenges and Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction: Asian Perspective, both published by the Emerald Press in 2010. He is also a co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize given to the IPCC being a Lead Author of the Fourth Assessment Report and currently a Coordinating Lead Author of the Human Security Chapter of the IPCC Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report to be released in 2014.


Organizers and Sponsors

Dr. Felino P. LansiganConference Chair

Dr. Felino P. Lansigan is Co-Chair of the Interdisciplinary Program on Climate Change (IdPCC) at the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), where he is also Professor at the Institute of Statistics (INSTAT) and Affiliate Professor at the School of Environmental Science and Management (SESAM). He is presently a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report, and a member of the international scientific steering committee of the Global Water System Project (GWSP). He

recently served as member of the Science and Policy Advisory Board of the Global Environment Outlook-5 (GEO-5) of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP).

Dr. Lansigan has received various scientific and professional awards and citations, including among others, The Outstanding Young Scientist Award (1987) from the National Academy of Science and Technology (NAST); The Outstanding Young Men (TOYM) of the Philippines (1992); the University of the Philippines Alumni Association Professional Achievement Award for Statistics (1993); the 2008 UPLB Outstanding Researcher; the NAST-Hugh Greenwood Environmental Science Award (2009); 2009 Most Outstanding Alumnus Award of the UPLB Alumni Association, Inc.; and the IPCC Citation for its 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. He holds a BS degree in Agriculture (major in Statistics), an MS degree in Statistics, and a PhD degree specializing in statistical hydrology and water resources (Colorado State University, USA).

Dr. Maria Celeste H. CadizConference Organizer

Dr. Maria Celeste H. Cadiz is Program Head for Knowledge Management (KM) at the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA). She also serves as Adjunct Associate Professor and was first Dean of the College of Development Communication (CDC) of the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) (1999–2006) upon its elevation to a college from an institute and earlier, a department. Her career for 33 years was devoted to teaching, research and practice in development communication at UPLB CDC

and subsequently in the last six years, as training and KM manager at SEARCA. She holds a PhD from Macquarie University in New South Wales, Australia, and an MS and Bachelor of Science in Development Communication (cum laude) from UPLB.

She had served as project leader/coordinator in a number of nationally and internationally funded action-research programs in development communication; authored two books, a monograph, and articles published in professional publications, as book chapters, or presented in international and national conferences; edited and written more than 30 extension and research publications; and prepared more than a dozen narrative and production scripts for video, soundslide set, exhibit, and multi-media presentations.

She had likewise served in various capacities in professional and community organizations and committees from local to international, including the Communication for Social Change Consortium (CFSC) based in South Orange, New Jersey, USA (www.communicationforsocialchange.org); Scientific Committee of the World Congress on Communication for Development in 2006; Nora C. Quebral Development Communication Center, Inc. (NCQDCCI), Philippine Association of Communication Educators; Asian Media Information and Communication Centre (AMIC); and Technical Committee for Communication under the then Technical Panel for Social Science and Communication (TPSoCom) of the Philippines’ Commission on Higher Education.



University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB)

The University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB), a coeducational, publicly funded academic, research and extension institution, is one of the six constituent universities of the University of the Philippines System. It started out as a College of Agriculture in 1909; and became a full-fledged university in 1972. It has emerged as a leading academic institution in Southeast Asia. UPLB is dedicated to advancing knowledge and educating students in science, technology, agriculture, forestry, veterinary medicine and other areas of scholarship that will best serve the Filipinos and the humanity in the 21st century. Its outstanding achievements in the basic and applied sciences are testaments to the great strides it has made for the past ninety years. The alumni continue to be the prime movers in academe, in government and in business.

www.uplb.edu.ph

Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA)

The Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (SEARCA) is one of the regional research and training centers of the Southeast Asian Ministers of Education Organization (SEAMEO), an intergovernment body founded in 1965 to promote cooperation among Southeast Asian nations through activities in education, science, and culture.

SEARCA’s programs are designed to accelerate sustainable agriculture and rural development through graduate scholarship, research, and knowledge management. It is hosted by the University of the Philippines Los Baños in Laguna, Philippines. It is supported by donations from SEAMEO member and associate member states, other governments, and various international donor agencies.

www.searca.org

Conference Convenors



Asia Pacific Adaptation Network (APAN)

The Asia Pacific Adaptation Network facilitates adaptation capacity building, policy-setting, planning and practices through the mobilization and sharing of knowledge and technologies, with the ultimate aim of helping countries in the region to build climate resilience of vulnerable human systems, ecosystems and economies. It was launched as a part of the Global Adaptation Network and began its implementation in March 2010. It operates through its regional hub located in Bangkok, Thailand and its sub-regional activities are carried out by sub-regional and thematic nodes located in the five sub-regions of Central Asia, South Asia, South East Asia, North East Asia and the Pacific. These sub-regional nodes operate with the help of their respective national implementing. United Nations Environment Programme - Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (UNEP ROAP) is the Steering Committee and Secretariat. UNEP Regional Resource Centre in Asia and the Pacific (UNEP.RRCAP) and Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Regional Centre constitute the Regional Hub. APAN is also supported by a Regional Donor Support Group and an Ad hoc Regional Technical Support Group.

www.apan-gan.net

Sponsors

The Food Security Centre is a university center of excellence in development cooperation at the University of Hohenheim, Germany. It is one of five excellence centers of the Higher Education Excellence in Development Cooperation (EXCEED), which is supported by the German

Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) with funds from the Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) of Germany. The Food Security Center aims to provide innovative and effective scientific contributions to reduce hunger and achieve food security, contributing towards the progress of Millennium Developmental Goal 1, especially towards the eradication of hunger and malnutrition. The Center utilizes a multidisciplinary approach through teaching, conducting research and providing policy advice in cooperation with national and international development organizations and partner higher education Institutions including the Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM) in Sub-Saharan Africa; Sokoine University of Agriculture in Tanzania; Haramaya University in Ethiopia; University of Malawi in Malawi; University of Costa Rica and Centro Agronomo Tropical de Investigacion y Ensenanza (CATIE) in Latin America; Kasetsart University in Thailand; and SEAMEO-SEARCA in Southeast Asia.

www.fsc.uni-hohenheim.de

Food Security Centre (FSC)



Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN)

The Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research is a network of member country governments (22 member countries as of March 2010) that promotes global change research in the region, increases developing country involvement in that research, and strengthens interactions between the science community and policy-makers. APN defines “global change” as the set of natural and human-induced processes in the Earth’s physical, biological, and social systems that, when aggregated, are significant at a global scale. APN strives to enable the developing countries of the region to participate increasingly in, and to benefit fully from, cooperative research in the region. It assures that the research results contribute to the development of sound science-based adaptation strategies, policy- and decision-making processes, and developing scientific capacity to address these important issues. Recognizing the interactive role of regional processes in the overall Earth system, APN also aims to link the initiatives it sponsors with related projects conducted in other regions and under the aegis of global-scale programs.

www.apn-gcr.org

The Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia aims to strengthen local capacity in the economic analysis of environmental problems so that researchers can provide sound advice to policy-makers. The

program uses a networking approach to provide financial support, meetings, resource persons, access to literature, publication avenues, and opportunities for comparative research across its nine member countries, namely, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Viet Nam, Cambodia, Lao PDR, China, and Papua New Guinea. The International Development Research Centre (IDRC), the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida), and the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) support the program.

www.eepsea.net

Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA)

The Philippines Climate Change Commission is an independent and autonomous agency with the same status as that of a national government. Attached to the Office of the President, it is the sole policy-making body

of the government tasked to coordinate, monitor and evaluate the programs and action plans of the government relating to climate change. It has formulated the Philippines’ National Framework Strategy on Climate Change (NFSCC), National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP) and guidelines for Local Climate Change Action Plan (LCCAP).

The German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ) supports the CCC in the enhancement, implementation and coordination of the NFSCC and the NCCAP, and their mainstreaming into the regular planning process at all levels of government.

www.climate.gov.ph

Philippines Climate Change Commission

international conference on climate change...

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