2372-26

Joint ICTP-IAEA Workshop on Sustainable Energy Development: Pathways and Strategies after Rio+20

Jawad Bashir

1 - 5 October 2012

Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission, Islamabad Pakistan

Indicators of Sustainable Development: Energy Sector of Pakistan

Indicators of Sustainable Development: Energy Sector of Pakistan.

Jawad Bashir Applied Systems Analysis Division

Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission P.O Box 1114, Islamabad, Pakistan

E-mail: asad@paec.gov.pk

Sustainable Energy Development: Pathways and Strategies after RIO +20.

Outlines of Presentation

Energy Sector Issues in Pakistan Historical Trends of ISED Findings

Issues Related to Energy Sector of Pakistan

Slow Development of Indigenous Energy Resources Shift from Hydro to Fossil Fuels in Electricity Generation Mix Domination of Fossil Fuels in Energy Mix Heavy Reliance on Imported Oil Inefficiencies and Lack of Conservation Strategies Lower Affordability and Access to Energy/Electricity Irrational Tariff Structure Degradation of the Environment

Exploitation of Hydro Power Resources

Year Installed Hydro Capacity Exploitation

MW % 1980 1,567 2.66 1983 2,547 4.32 1993 4,626 7.84 2002 5,041 8.54 2011 6,481 10.98

Technical Potential of Hydro Power = 59,000 MW

Source: WAPDA, Power System Statistics 2011 and earlier issues

Reserve to Production Ratio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Oil

& G

as R

/P(Y

ears

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Coal

R/P

(Yea

rs)

GasOilCoal

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues

Diversification in Primary Energy Mix

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Shar

es

Oil (includes LPG) Gas Coal Hydro NuclearSource: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues

1980: 13.1 million TOE 2011: 64.5 million TOE

Mix in Electricity Capacity and Generation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Sha

res

Hydro Oil/Gas Coal Nuclear

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues

Capacity Mix Generation Mix

1980: 3,518 MW 2011: 22,477 MW

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010S

hare

s

Hydro Oil Gas Coal Nuclear

1980: 14.9 TWh 2011: 94.4 TWh

Ratio of Final Energy* to Primary Energy

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%

72%

74%

76%

1980 1990 2000 2010

%

* Including Non-Energy Use Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues

Energy Import Dependence

30.3

31.3 33.9 33.4 35.0 38.5 27.5

79.089.4

82.278.0 79.3

84.5 79.2

0

20

40

60

80

100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

%

Energy Import DependenceImported Oil Share

Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues

Efficiency in Electricity Sector

29.6

25.0

23.221.6

20.3

33.334.0

26.1

28.2

33.9

36.3

30.6

28.4

16.6

25.4

27.8

31.5

23.9

21.321.0

16

21

26

31

36

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

%Efficiency of Thermal GenerationT&D Losses

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues

Energy Use per Unit of GDP*

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

kGO

E/00

0 R

s.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

KW

h/00

0 R

s.

Primary Energy Final Energy Electricity

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues

* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11

Energy/Electricity Use per Capita

161105

127

539

368

222

440

1134GDP (US$* /Capita)

Electricity (KWh/capita)

Final Energy(KGOE/capita)

Primary Energy(KGOE/capita)

19802011

* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues

Energy Intensities of Industrial Sector

3

4

5

6

7

8

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

KGO

E/00

0 Rs

.

3

4

5

6

7

8

KWh/

000

Rs.

EnergyElectricity

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues

Energy Intensity of Agriculture Sector

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

KGO

E/00

0 Rs

.

0

1

2

3

4

5

KWh/

000

Rs.

EnergyElectricity

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011 and earlier issues

Energy Intensity of Service Sector

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

KG

OE/

000

Rs.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

KW

h/00

0 R

s.

FuelElectricity

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues

Access to Electricity

020406080

100Share of Household with Electricity

Urban 71.04 93.14Rural 14.66 60.07Total 30.58 70.46 85.43

1980 1998 2011

Sources: 1998 Census Report of Pakistan WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics 2011

Access to Piped Natural Gas

0

20

40

60Share of Household with Natural Gas Connections

Urban 22.11 58.14Rural 0.30 2.83Total 6.46 20.19

1980 1998

Gas connection per million of population

Index of Gas connection

1992 13,926 100 1998 22,973 165 2011 36,102 259

Sources: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2011 and earlier issues Pakistan Economic Survey 2011 and earlier issues 1998 Census Report of Pakistan

Household Expenditure on Fuel and Electricity

Pakistan

0.3%

0.8%

0.8%

0.1%

0.4%

0.7%

1.4%

0.30%

0.71%

0.22%

3.94%

LPG

Gas

Kerosene

Electricity

200519911979

Urban

0.5%

0.9%

1.4%

0.2%

1.0%

0.3%

2.1%

0.27%

1.52%

0.60%

4.72%

LPG

Gas

Kerosene

Electricity

200519911979

Rural

0.8%

0.3%

0.1%

0.9%

0.9%

0.02%

0.31%

0.11%

0.34%

3.36%

LPG

Gas

Kerosene

Electricity

200519911979

Sources: Household Integrated Economic Survey 2004-05 HESS Survey 1993. Household Income and Expenditure Survey,1979

Energy Prices for Household

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rs./M

illio

n BT

U

100

300

500

700

900

1100

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

KeroseneElectricityNatural GasCPI

Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA, Power Systems Statistics

There have been 27, 20 and 42 fold increase in price of Kerosene, Electricity and Gas respectively

0500

100015002000250030003500400045005000

1980 1990 2000 2010

Rs./M

illio

n BT

U

100200300400500600700800900100011001200

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dex

ElectricityNatural GasCPI

Energy Prices for Commercial Sector

Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics

There have been 17 and 20 fold increase in price of Electricity and Gas respectively

Energy Prices for Industrial Sector

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400260028003000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rs./M

illio

n BT

U

10020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400

GDP

Def

lato

r

FOElectricityNatural Gas GDP Deflator

Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics

There have been 18, 38 and 47 fold increase in price of Electricity, FO and Gas respectively

Energy Prices for Transport Sector

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rs./M

illio

n BT

U

10020030040050060070080090010001100

Cons

umer

Pric

e In

dexHSD

GasolineCNGCPI

Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics

There have been 27 and 15 fold increase in price of HSD and Gasoline respectively

Energy Prices for Agriculture Sector

0200400600800

10001200140016001800200022002400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Rs./M

illio

n BT

U

10020030040050060070080090010001100120013001400

GDP

Def

lato

r

HSDLDOElectricityGDP Deflator

Sources: NEPRA Pakistan Economic Survey WAPDA Power Systems Statistics

There have been 25, 27 and 28 fold increase in price of LDO, HSD and Electricity respectively

Highlights of End-Use Prices

Price of All Energy Products Increased in Real Terms Biggest Increase in Real Price of Gas Price for Industrial Sector Second Biggest Increase in Real Price of Gas Price for Household Sector Third Biggest Increase in Real Price of FO for Industrial Sector The Minimum Increase in Real Price of Gasoline in Transport Sector

GHG Emissions per Capita from Energy Sector and per Unit of GDP

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1980 1990 2000 2010

Kg/c

apita

0.50.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.31.41.5

kG/U

S$*

GHGs/Capita GHGs/GDP

* At Constant Prices of Year 2010-11

Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)

SO2 Emissions by Sector

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Thou

sand

Ton

nes

Househod Industry TransportAgriculture Commercial Power

Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)

NOx Emissions by Sector

050

100150

200250

300350

400

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Thou

sand

Ton

nes

Househod Industry TransportAgriculture Commercial Power

Sources: Based on Pakistan Energy Yearbooks IPCC Methodologies (1996)

Findings (1/3) Improvement in energy accessibility; particularly of electricity in the household sector Switching over to natural gas from furnace oil for power generation Induction of CNG in the transport sector Rational pricing of natural gas and electricity Rationalization of electricity prices to make those reflective of fuel cost Efficiency improvement in electricity generation.

Energy import dependence was 39% of total primary energy in 2000 which decrease to 30% of total primary energy in 2011 due to intensive use of natural gas as its share increased from 41% in the year 2000 to 48% in 2011. Some of these policies in the past have led to :

Improvement in quality of life Energy security Efficient use of energy Reduction in environmental burden of energy use.

Findings (2/3)

Finding (3/3)

But all these positive impacts are not sustainable as there has been a continuous decline in the reserve to production ratio of natural gas which implies that the above mentioned improvements are not sustainable.

Thank You