improving the climate resilience of tajikistan’s hydropower sector rob wilby loughborough...
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Improving the climate resilience of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector
Rob Wilby Loughborough University
Michael FriedhoffSKM
Richenda Connel & Ben RabbAcclimatise
Nasridin Minikulov, Anvar Homidov, Muzaffar ShodmanovTajik Hydromet
Nadezhda LeonidovaLoiha-Gidroenergo
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Kairakkum power station and spillway, downstream view
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Overall objectives of PPCR Phase I (A4)
Two main objectives:
#1. Analyze the climate vulnerability of Tajikistan’s hydropower sector;
#2. Recommend ways in which the analysis can inform investment planning, including use of Phase II PPCR resources to support specific adaptation activities leading to a more climate-resilient hydropower sector.
Kairakkum reservoir 2012
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Orientation – Kairakkum
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Orientation – Nurek
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Main tasks of PPCR Phase I (A4)
Six activities:
#1. Assemble and analyze historic hydro-climate trends
#2. Produce a synthesis of regional climate scenarios
#3. Develop hydrological models to evaluate impacts
#4. Review climate alongside other natural hazards
#5. Evaluate potential scenarios for hydropower
#6. Identify options to build resilience to climate change
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Analytical frameworkClimate change
scenariosHydrological modelsREG WBM SRM
Upstream river regulation
Monthly/annualflow factors
Monthly/annualevaporation
Hazardsanalysis
Reservoirsafety
Reservoirwater balance
Energy production
model
Refurbishment and upgrade scenarios
Operatingrule scenario
Sedimentation data
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Activity #1 – Data assembly and trend analysis
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Ann
ual m
axim
um d
isch
arge
(m
3/s) Aqjar Darband
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Example data sources
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1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010P
reci
pit
atio
n t
ota
l (m
m)
GPCC-1.0deg
TRMM-0.25deg
SDSM-M20
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
y = 0.0124x - 24.569R² = 0.0756
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual t
empe
ratu
re a
nom
aly
(°C
)
NarynT
y = 0.6043x - 1092.4R² = 0.0509
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual p
reci
pita
tion
(%
LTA
)
KhujandP
y = 0.9804x - 1833.8R² = 0.2026
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual d
isch
arge
(%
LTA
)
AqjarQ
y = -0.001x + 1.8565R² = 0.0004
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual t
empe
ratu
re a
nom
aly
(°C
)
LayhshT
y = 0.6322x - 1148.1R² = 0.1142
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual p
reci
pita
tion
(%
LTA
)LayhshP
y = -0.015x + 129.8R² = 0.0003
0
50
100
150
200
250
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Ann
ual d
isch
arge
(%
LTA
)
DarbandQ
Observed trends in annual mean temperature [T], precipitation [P] and discharge [Q] for Kairakkum (top row) and Nurek (lower row) relative to the 1961-1990 mean. The red dashed line for Khujand shows a hindcast of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) area-average precipitation for the upper Syr Darya basin.
Local hydro-climatic trends
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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16-Mar 16-Apr 16-May 16-Jun 16-Jul 16-Aug 16-Sep
Frac
tion
of
zone
tha
t is
sno
w c
over
ed Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 7
Zone 8
Snow-cover duration curves (CDCs) for the upper Vakhsh basin in 2010
Snow cover
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Activity #2 – Climate change scenarios
Temperature and precipitation changes over Asia from the MMD-A1B simulations.
Source: Christensen et al. (2007).
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
Tem
pera
ture
chan
ge (°C
)
Precipitation change (%)
Naryn 2050s
A2
A1B
B1
Mean
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Tem
pera
ture
chan
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Precipitation change (%)
Naryn 2080s
A2
A1B
B1
Mean
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Tem
pera
ture
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Precipitation change (%)
Layhsh 2050s
A2
A1B
B1
Mean
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Tem
pera
ture
chan
ge (°C
)
Precipitation change (%)
Layhsh 2080s
A2
A1B
B1
Mean
Regional climate scenarios
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Climate change marker scenarios
Marker scenario
2050s 2080s
ΔT ΔP ΔT ΔP
Hot-dryDriest and most rapid warming member(s)
+4°C -10% +6°C -15%
CentralEnsemble mean precipitation and temperature change
+3°C +5% +4°C +5%
Warm-wet
Wettest and least rapid warming member(s)
+1.5°C +20% +2°C +30%
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Cum
ulati
ve li
kelih
ood
Annual PE change (%)
2020s 2050s 2080s
Cumulative likelihood distributions of annual PE increases (% change with respect to the 1961-1990 baseline) projected by ensembles of PE estimation method, emission scenario, and GCM output (for the closest grid-points to the Kairakkum reservoir).
Evaporation scenarios
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5
Tem
per
atu
re c
han
ge
(deg
C)
Annual mean temperature bias (degC)
A1BA2B1SDSM-A2SDSM-B2
Changes in a mean annual temperature and precipitation for Khujand under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the 2080s
Climate model uncertainty and downscaling
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
An
nu
al
me
an
te
mp
era
ture
(de
gC
)
SDSM
Observed
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
January February March April May June July August September October November December
Mea
n d
aily
tem
per
atu
re (�C
)
Observed (black) and downscaled (red) annual mean temperatures at Khujand
Observed (black) and downscaled (grey) mean daily temperatures at Lyahsh in 1993
Downscaling applications
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Activity #3 – Hydrological modelling
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Data for hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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PE (m
m/d
ay
Month
(B) Potential Evaporation 2020s
minq1medianq3max
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m/d
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(C) Potential Evaporation 2050s
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(D) Potential Evaporation 2080s
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Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
PE (m
m/d
ay
Month
(A) Potential Evaporation 1961-1990
ThornthwaiteBlarney-CriddleHamonMass balance
Estimated PE for 1961-1990 based the Thornthwaite, Blaney-Criddle and Hamon methods and observed temperatures. PE estimates from the mass balance of the Kairakkum reservoir are also shown
Evaporation modelling
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Observed (grey line) and REG modeled (black lines) annual discharge at Aqjar for 1955-2010. The plot also shows projected discharge for the 2050s under the three climate change scenarios (colored lines)
1. Regression model
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1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Aqj
ar a
nnua
l m
ean
Q (m
3/s)
OBSERVED BASELINE (NO FILL) BASELINE (FILLING)
HOT/DRY WARM/WET ENSEMBLE MEAN
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
2. Water balance model
Q = (A.P.k) + (G.ΔT) – (A.E) ± S ± D
Q is the discharge (km3),
A is the basin area (km2),
P is the annual precipitation (km),
k is a scaling factor,
G is the total snow and glacier melt per year ΔT degree temperature change (km3/yr/°C),
E is the annual evaporation total (km),
S is upstream storage change (km3),
D is diversions for irrigation or effluent (km3).
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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cum
ulati
ve d
isch
arge
(km
3)
Observed Modelled
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1200
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Cum
ulati
ve d
isch
arge
(km
3)
Observed Modelled
Syr Darya to Aqjar
Vakhsh to Darband
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
3. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM)
Qn+1 = [CSn · αn (Tn + ΔTn) Sn + CR · Pn] A · v (1 – kn-1) + [Qn · rn+1]
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LapseRate
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Tcrit
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DDF
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Cs
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RCA
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Observed SRM
Daily mean composite of observed and SRM discharges at Darband 2001-2010
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Activity #4 – Natural hazards analysisRef Date Type Description19 29/2/96 FL Rising level of water on the river of Syr-Darya, destroyed boat bridge
36 16/4/96 FL
Flooded 100 houses, 3 houses are completely destroyed, there are main road washed away 35km, 12 pieces bridges, internal road - 25 km, power line - 3,6 km, coast-protecting structure - 25 km, water collector network - 25 km, water-supply canal - 5km, ?????????? 23 irrigation well and transformer substation, carried away 15 watermill, damaged planted area more than 100 ha, orchard and vineyards about 100 ha, vegetables - 12 ha, foods - 12ha.
93 26/2/97 FL95 3/3/97 WI
112 25/4/97 PR119 11/5/97 PR Destroyed 4 km of road
130 26/5/97 FLWashed away 200 hectares of crops , 52 apartment buildings, a breakthrough 8 km channel at 7 locations, 110 tons of haylage were flooded
131 26/5/97 PR138 11/6/97 PR156 19/7/97 LS Bridge destroyed near the sanatorium Zumrad-2159 19/7/97 PR Destroyed the bridge, the road 500m, the protective structures along rivers, power lines 400m192 27/2/98 PR Washed away dam, flooded farmland196 28/2/98 WI Has damage to households and private individual
Source: Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of Tajikistan. Recorded events near Kairakkum 1992-1998.
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Avalanche
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Earthquake
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Flood
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Landslide
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Precipitation
05
101520253035404550
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Wind
Occurrence of natural hazards in the IMAC data base 1992-1998 (as percentages of their respective total frequencies).
Natural Hazards
1992-1998
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Panjakent
Somoniyon
Fayzabad
Rushan
Potential for (some) hazard forecasting
Locations of mudflows and reported flooding 5 to 11 May 2011 compared with TRMM rainfall
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Activity #5 – Hydropower scenarios
Kairakkum dam and power station - general arrangement
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Changing bathymetry
Storage curves generated from bathymetric survey data were obtained for 1965, 1975 and 2009. Additionally the original storage curve for 1957 is available.
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
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No
v
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Dai
ly Q
(m
3/s)
2001
Observed
SRM
Hot-dry
Central
Warm-wet
Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s.
Calibration based on 7 snow cover images
Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul
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Observed
SRM
Hot-dry
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Warm-wet
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Observed and SRM estimates of daily discharge under present and changed climate scenarios (hot-dry, central, and warm wet) for the 2050s.
Calibration based on 15 snow cover images
Runoff scenarios – Naryn upstream of Toktogul
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
ScenariosKairakkum on
(discharge at Aqjar)
Nurek on Vakhsh cascade
(discharge at Darband)
2050s ΔT ΔPSRM*
(18%)
REG
(13%)
WBM
(23%)
SRM**
(16%)
SRM*
(16%)
REG
(10%)
WBM
(33%)
Hot-dry +4°C -10% +16 +20 -50 +25 +34 -8 -34
Central +3°C +5% +17 +21 +2 +19 +28 -3 0
Warm-wet +1.5°C +20% +18 +19 +55 +12 +18 +4 +35
2080s ΔT ΔP SRM REG WBM SRM* SRM** REG WBM
Hot-dry +6 °C -15% +27 +30 -80 +51 +55 -12 -55
Central +4 °C +5% +22 +27 -5 +29 +38 -4 -6
Warm-wet +2 °C +30% +28 +28 +83 +20 +25 +6 +51
Summary of runoff scenarios
* Parameters in SRM advanced by 15 days per °C of warming; ** Fixed parameters used in SRM (see Annex 1 for further details).
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Syr Darya - Average monthly discharge (m3/s) at Akjar
Regulated inflow regime
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Operating rules
Average Kairakkum reservoir level (m) at the beginning of each month
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Monthly energy production - calibrated
Actual and modelled monthly energy production at Kairakkum assuming 88% of rated efficiency
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Scenarios of firm energy production
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Adaptation options (Kairakkum)a) Operational changes
•Use 0.85 m of the flood surcharge volume as live storage (assumes flood peaks are attenuated by Toktogul and Andijan)
•Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill
b) Structural/physical changes
•Increase power station capacity to 147 MW by uprating generators and control system
c) Combined approach
•Increase full supply level by 0.5 m and increase power station capacity by 147 MW
d) Other measures
•Heighten the dam
•Integrated management and coordination of upstream dams
•Install additional generating unit
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
Outcome of adaptation options – wetter future
Annual energy under the REG-Central (+21% flow) scenario for different strategies
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
#6 Recommendations for building resilience
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
1) Further analytical work and monitoring
1. Strengthen the hydrometric network
2. Lengthen the period for snow cover measurement
3. Use measured spill and turbine discharge data to improve water balance model
4. Digitize and quality-assure remaining paper-based hydrometeorological records
5. Establish robust protocols for flood safety assessment under changing conditions
6. Examine geo-referenced hazards data for climate signals
7. Assess the feasibility of seasonal forecasting for reservoir operation
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
2) Training and collaboration
1. Strengthen national capabilities in climate risk assessment through partnership working and exchanges
2. Strengthen data management and record keeping
3. Build collaborative links with international partners in research, engineering and academia
4. Submit PPCR research to international journals for scientific peer review
5. Run technical workshops on climate diagnostics, climate risk assessment, and seasonal forecasting
PPCR Workshop on Climate Resilience and the Energy Sector6-7 March 2012, Barki Tojik, Dushanbe, Tajikistan
3) Investments in hydropower facilitiesKairakkum power station options
(a) Use some flood surcharge volume as live storage
(b) Change operating rules to maximize head and minimize spill
(c) Increase power station capacity during planned rehabilitation
(d) Combined approach
(e) Manage sediment loads
Vakhsh cascade options (no data)
(a) Construction of the Rogun dam with associated operating rule changes for Nurek
(b) Increase Nurek power station capacity
(c) Contingency measures for credible warnings of rainfall-triggered landslides