We know climate change is happening (and it could get a lot worse)

[Impacts]

Overview

1. Climate change is real, and it’s happening now

2. What’s in store for the future?

Climate change is real and it’s happening

now:what are some

examples?

SOME THINGS ARE ALREADY CHANGING IN VERY REAL AND MEASURABLE WAYS, LIKE:- TEMPERATURE- ARCTIC SEA ICE- GLACIERS- SEA LEVEL RISE

The top ten hottest years on record have all been in the past 15 years

The Arctic is currently warming at twice the rate of the rest of the

world

Between 1979 and 2007, the Arctic lost over 40% of its ice

Glaciers are also melting before our eyes

MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 1941

MUIR & RIGGS GLACIER 2004

PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 1920

PEDERSEN GLACIER, AK 2005

In early 2009, researchers in Bolivia went to measure the Chacaltaya glacier to find that it had completely disappeared.

In a 2005 survey of 442 glaciers, 398 - or 90% - were retreating.

SEA LEVELS ARE ALREADY RISING

Three Year Average

Satellite Altimetry

Year

Sea L

evel C

han

ge (c

m)

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"For the Carteret Islanders, we cannot

wait any longer because the islands

are shrinking. When it's high tide, we can see

salt water bubbling out of the land."

Photo: Toby Parkinson/Oxfam

-Ursula Rakova, landowner on Huene Island, now divided into two smaller islands and disappearing fast

Weather patterns are already changing:

HAVE YOU BEEN NOTICING “WILD WEATHER” IN YOUR COMMUNITY, OR AROUND THE WORLD?

MAJOR FLOODS PER DECADE

num

ber o

f majo

r floods p

er d

eca

de

Cambodia: "In the last three years we have experienced unpredictable floods. We plant but we can't harvest; it has never happened like this before,” said Mom Mayas, a 47-year-old mother of six. “After being hit three years in a row I have no money left to buy seeds to plant next year. I have very little hope now, but I am doing whatever I can so the rest of my children can go to school and maybe have a better life."

More stories: www.oxfamamerica.org

Photo: Jack Picone/Oxfam

Scientists are now observing twice the number of tornadoes in the US

in April

The Amazon has just gone through its second “100-year drought” in

the last 5 years.

“The fact remains that there is 4 percent more water vapor available both to power individual storms and to produce intense rainfall from them. Climate change is present in every single meteorological event, in that these events are occurring within a baseline atmospheric environment that has shifted in favor of more intense weather events.”

- Michael Mann, climate scientist at U Penn

In other words…

As the atmosphere heats up

It holds more moisture

And produces more intense storms.

By some estimates, extreme weather

caused by climate change

is already killing 150,000

people per year

2What’s in

store if we don’t act

now?

Let’s be clear: We are headed for a 4 degree+ world right now

Chart showing:• 0.76 deg C warming now• 1 deg Celsius warming if we stop emitting

NOW.• 2-3 deg warming by 2060 if emissions grow at

current rate• 5-6 degree eventual temperature increase

under “business as usual”

To give you an idea of where we are currently headed, a world with a 3-4 degree Celsius rise in average temperature would see impacts like:

• in Africa, 75–220 million people would face more severe water shortages by 2020

• In Central and South Asia, crop yields are predicted to fall by up to 30 per cent

• By the 2050s in Latin America, 50% of agricultural lands are very likely to be subjected to desertification and salinization

• 1.5-2.5 billion more people worldwide exposed to Dengue fever• 50% decrease in water flowing through rivers in the

Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of South America, producing water shortages for millions

Many regions of the world will experience severe drought

A1B Storyline. Red and Pink = “severe drought.” Blue is wet relative to 1950-79 mean.

Droughts will have major impacts on our ability to grow food(Source: William Cline, Center for Global Development)

% Change in Productivity

-What we're coming to understand is that of all the horrible things human beings

have figured out to do, nothing will repress more people more powerfully than

removing the basic physical stability of the planet that the poorest and most

vulnerable people depend on in order to get their daily bread.

“ ”– Bill McKibben, activist,

author, environmentalist, and co-founder of 350.org

THE DISRUPTION OF FOOD PRODUCTION

Our ecosystems: Scientists estimate

climate change could wipe out 20-

30% of species worldwide by the

end of the century.

Impacts on the ocean•Sea level rise•Ocean acidification•Sea surface temperature

increase•Change or halting of ocean

currents

32

Implication of 1 meter riseNile Delta 2000 Nile Delta with 1 meter sea

level rise

IPCC-AR4: “0.18 – 0.59 m by 2100”Post-AR4: “0.8 to 2.4 m by 2100“ (Hansen: “several

meters“)

Global Warming Increases Malaria, Dengue Fever Threat, UN Says.“ ”- Bloomberg, Nov. 27, 2007

IT AFFECTS OUR HEALTH:

Climate change could force

1 BILLION from their homes by 2050.

“ ”- April 30, 2008, The

Independent.

A HUMAN RIGHTS CRISIS AND INSTABILITY

Climate change will draw ever-deeper lines of division and conflict in international relations… over the distribution of resources, especially water and land.

“ ”- Report: World in Transition

It Will THREATEN GLOBAL

STABILITY:

severe impacts on

LOCAL ECONOMIES

The most comprehensive review ever carried out on the economics of climate change warns that global warming could inflict worldwide disruption as great as that caused by the two World Wars and the Great Depression.

“ ”- Environmental News

Service

STERN REVIEW, 2006

Again, we could see impacts much worse due to possible feedback loops and tipping

points like:

• The desertification of the Amazon rainforest

• Melting of the Greenland ice sheet• Melting of West Antarctic ice sheet• Methane release from massive permafrost

melt• Monsoon shift in India

One example: the Collapse of the Amazon Rainforest

• Scientists predict significant reduction to the amount of rainfall over the Amazon Rainforest

• This will cause a positive feedback between stressed plant life and CO2 release

• The Amazon will no longer be able to absorb as much CO2

• The Amazon contains 50% of the world’s biodiversity

But there’s reason to hope:-We have the solutions to cut emissions-We have the ability to organize a movement

More information

• Grist Denier argument FAQ• World Health Organization• Oxfam International• IPCC Website• Stern Review on the Economics of Climate

Change