Impacts & Adaptation to

Climate Change -

A Sri Lankan Perspective

Senaka Basnayake Senior Meteorologist

Centre for Climate Change Studies (CCCS)Department of Meteorology

Colombo 07Sri Lanka

SICCIA 28th June – 02nd July 2004, Grainau, Germany

Outline….

Climate & Climate Change of Sri Lanka

Impacts of Climate Change in, Agriculture Water Resources sectors..

Adaptation Measures Taken Scope of the AIACC Project Future Climate Scenarios for Sri Lanka

South

Asia

Principal Meteorological Stations

Agrometeorological Stations

Raingauge Stations

MeteorologicalStation

Network

Climate of Sri Lanka

Climatological Seasons in Sri Lanka

First Inter-Monsoon (FIM) – March & April

Southwest Monsoon (SWM)- May – September

Second Inter-Monsoon (SIM)- October & November

Northeast Monsoon (NEM) – December - February

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

AVE RAG E M ON T H LY RAIN FALL

( Com puted for the S tandard Averaging period of 1961 - 1990 in m illim eters )

5 0

1 0 0

1 5 0

2 0 0

2 5 0

3 0 0

3 5 0

4 0 0

4 5 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

1 0 0 0 0

D ep a rtm en t o f M eteo ro lo g yL C /1 1 -2 0 0 0

JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE

JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER

AVE RAG E M ON T H LY M E AN T E M P E RAT U RE

( Com puted for the S tandard Averaging period of 196 1 - 1990 in degrees Cels ius )

1 0

1 5

1 8

2 0

2 3

2 5

2 8

3 0

3 3

3 5

4 0

D ep a rtm en t o f M eteo ro lo g ylc /1 1 -2 0 0 0

Climatic zones of Sri LankaRainfall

below 1,750 mm - Dry zone

1,750 - 2,500 mm - Inter mediate zone

above 2,500 mm - Wet zone

Agro-Ecological Zones of Sri Lanka

24 agro-ecological zones

49 sub-zones WZ – 16 IZ – 20 DZ - 13

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DL3

DL3

D(L3-L4)

DL4

DL3

DL1

DL4

DL3

D(L2-L4)

DL2

IL3

IM3

IL2

IL1

IM1

IU1

WM3

WM3

WL2

WL3

WM2

WM1

WL4

WU2

IU2IU2

IM2

WU1

WL1

IU3

I(L1-L2)WU1 WU3

WM3&IM2

DL1

I(U2-U3)

WM3

DL5

WM1

WL2

IL1

WU1

IM2

WL2

I(L1-L3)

Jaffna

Mullaittivu

Mannar

Puttalam

Colombo

Kalutara

Galle

Matara

Hambantota

Batticaloa

Trincomalee

Anuradhapura

Vavuniya

Polonnaruwa

Kandy

BadullaNuwaraeliya

Hiniduma

Middeniya

Tissamaharama

Kataragama

Kalawana

Nalanda

Mahiyangana

Welimada

Bandarawela

Haputale

Rangala

Kuliyapitiya

Wariyapola

Veyangoda

Rambukkana

Vanathavillu

Elephant Pass

Kantale

Padiyatalawa

Karadiyan Aru

Watawala

Hatton

Maskeliya

Ginigathhena

Ratnapura

Angunakolapelessa

Negombo

Chilaw

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AGRO ECOLOGICAL MAP

Observed Climate Changes in Sri Lanka

Annual rainfall variability in Badulla

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

year

RF

an

om

aly

in m

m

(fro

m 1

961-

1990

)

Annual rainfall variability in Ratnapure

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

year

RF

an

om

aly

in m

m (

fro

m

1961

-199

0)

Rainfall

variability

Season Coefficient of Variation of all Sri Lanka Rainfall

1931 – 1960 1961 - 1990

Northeast Monsoon (Dec. to Feb.) 31% 42%

First Intermonsoon (Mar. to Apr.) 23% 27%

Southwest Monsoon (May. to Sep.) 21% 16%

Second Intermonsoon (Oct. to Nov) 22% 23%

Annual (Jan. to Dec.) 12% 14%

 

The Coefficient of Variation of all-Sri Lanka Rainfall during the periods 1931-1960 and 1961-1990,

Annual minimum air Temperature anomaly trend in Nuwara-Eliya

y = 0.02x - 1.6757

R2 = 0.6888

-2.5-2

-1.5-1

-0.50

0.51

1.5

1901 1909 1917 1925 1933 1941 1949 1957 1965 1973 1981 1989 1997

year

Tm

in A

no

mal

y in

C

(fro

m 1

961-

1990

)

Minimum

Temperature

Trend

Annual minimum air Temperature anomaly Trend in Badulla

y = 0.0089x - 0.677

R2 = 0.4002

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

1900 1909 1919 1928 1937 1946 1955 1964 1973 1982 1991 2000

year

Tm

in A

no

mal

y in

C

(fro

m 1

961-

1990

)

Annual Maximum air Temperature anomaly trend in Puttalam

y = 0.0209x - 1.6402

R2 = 0.6548

-4-3-2-1012

1901

1907

1913

1919

1925

1931

1937

1943

1949

1955

1961

1967

1973

1979

1985

1991

1997

year

Tm

ax A

no

mal

y in

C

(fro

m 1

961-

1990

)

Maximum

Temperature

Trend

Annual Maximum air temperature anomaly Trend in Badulla

y = 0.0151x - 1.2269

R2 = 0.4512

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1900

1907

1915

1922

1929

1936

1943

1950

1957

1964

1971

1978

1985

1992

1999

year

Tm

ax A

no

mal

y in

C

(fro

m 1

961-

1990

)

Rate of change of Annual Mean

Temperature

1.60C / 100 years

Impacts of Climate Change

Impacts - Agriculture

Change of Rainfall

Increased Temperature

Sea Level Rise

Through

In Sri Lanka if T increases by 0.5 0C

rice yield reduction by 5.9 %

Night Temperature (minimum

Temperature)

Potato

tomato

Pest warmer climate

Pest population enhanced re-production

Disease Bacteria, Virus, Fungi favors hot and humid environment

not dry and hot environment in some regions

more disease occurrence Or may difficult to control

Weeds 18 worst weeds

out of which 14 are C4 plants can withstand T C3 plants optimum T 15-20 0C C4 plants optimum T 25- 30 0C

Pig weed - C4

3 0C T 240 times increase in biomass

Pest, Disease and Weeds more occurrence reduced yield, high cost of production 2 0C T 30% reduction in crop yield only due to

changes of population dynamics of P, D & W

Impacts - Water Resources….

Changes of weather fronts– dry regions become more dry

• drought frequency may increase - delayed SWM and short duration of SWM

• intensity of drought may increase & long dry spells in wet season• marked increase in inter annual, seasonal variability

Increasing evapo-transpiration - high water loss from open water bodies– enhance the drought condition

• minor tank cascades in Sri Lanka high (surface area/depth) ratio hence more vulnerable

Impacts of Rising Temperature…

Impacts of Changing Rainfall Regime…

– high variability in seasonal rainfall– high variability of monsoons– strong, persistent and frequent El Nino events– Intense rains

strong tendency for above normal rainfall in SIM (Oct-Nov) in El Nino years

- Increased frequency of floods and droughts affect

– agriculture

– water resources

– infrastructure

• Problem of soil erosion– steep slopes are highly vulnerable– siltation of reservoirs

Polgolla - 44% silted by 1988 (12 years after its commissioning) - now 2.8% per year

Rantambe - 4.3 % per year (by now 54%) – Uma Oya Victoria - 0.0 8% per year Minor tanks - 2.4% per year

- land degradation –marginal landsSoil productivity reduces – Mid country tea landsAverage soil erosion in Upper Mahaweli - 115 mt/ha/yr

soil formation 1cm 100 - 400 years

Changing Rainfall Regime…

Changing Rainfall Regime…

High intense rains if daily RF exceeds 200 mm/day

high probability for land slides in prone areas

NBRO estimates 12,500 ha are vulnerable to land slides

Digging for Water, Hambantota Dec 2001Source: Dept of Social Service

A victim of Hambantota Drought December 2001

Source: Dept of Social Services

Faith of Coconut Trees in Hambantiota December 2001Source: Dept of social service

Impacts of Sea Level Rise...

• In the coastal zone of Sri Lanka– Approx. 24% of the land area and 32% of the population– 65% of urbanized land area– 80% tourism– 65 % industrial out put– commercial ports and fishery harbors – principal road and rail infrastructure– Important eco-systems

Adaptation Measures Taken

Agriculture

Some of the measures have already been introduced to meet either the drought conditions or the salt water intrusion faced by the country from time to time. Among these measures are:

The Department of Agriculture has undertaken a programme to breed saline resistant rice varieties as an adaptation measure.

The Tea Research Institute (TRI) has been experimenting with covering the tea planted area with mulch to reduce loss of moisture.

The Coconut Research Institute (CRI) and TRI have introduced drought resistant varieties for planting in drought prone areas.

Water ResourcesThe relevant authorities have already been taking some of the measures to face the shortage of water/slat water intrusion during drought conditions. Among these are:

Planning the construction of a salt water barrier in Kelani River down stream of Ambatale water intake.

Introduction of a new Water Resources Management Policy and an Act of Parliament to encourage the rationale use of water and to dispel the concept of water as a free good.

Popularizing the use of rain water harvesting, particularly in the dry zone.

Introduction of several water shed management programmes executed by the Ministry of Forestry.

Introduction of the issuing of Environment Protection Licence as a mandatory measure to industries that conform to effluent standards.

Energy

The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) has introduced several measures such as:

Building thermal power plants to reduce the dependence on hydropower as the main source of electricity.

Introducing a scheme to purchase electricity generated from small hydropower plants, wind energy farms and solar photo-electricity plants.

Introduction of a demand side management scheme to encourage efficient use of lighting and air-conditioning.

Coastal Zone

The Coast Conservation Department (CCD) has already adopted a Coastal Zone Management Plan as early as 1990 and updated in 1995 to protect the coastal zone from such natural phenomena as coastal erosion and storm activity as well as human activities.

Out of a total shore line of 1585 km, about 270-380 km are only erosion prone. Some of the measures mentioned above such as building of revetments and groynes have been implemented to protect this shore length from erosion. Regulations have also been brought in to prevent development work within 300 km of shore line, breaking of corals and sand mining.

On going Adaptation Studies ..

AIACC in the Coconut and tea Sectors in Sri Lanka (AS – 12)

Ministry of Environment Programme A grant from GEF, through UNDP to

undertake climate change studies including adaptation studies.

Out of 40 proposals received, 11 were for adaptation studies, 18 for vulnerability studies and 11 for mitigation studies. Out of these only 21 were selected for funding.

ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPACTS OF AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (AIACC) IN THE COCONUT AND TEA SECTORS IN SRI

LANKA

 

Coconut Research Institute (CRI) Tea Research Institute (TRI) Meteorology Department (MET) Natural Resources Management Services

(NRMS)

Managed by

Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Science (SLAAS)

Participating Organizations

Tea Plantations in Sri Lanka

ITEM QUANTITY UNIT

TOTAL EXTENT 180,000 ha

EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND 2.77 %

REPLANTING 1,085 ha

NEW PLANTING 263 ha

TOTAL PRODUCTION 306,000 tonnes

High Grown 84,000 tonnes

Medium Grown 56,000 tonnes

Low Grown 166,000 tonnes

PRODUCTION EXPORTED 288,000 tonnes

DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION 18,000 tonnes

COST OF PRODUCTION 110 Rs/kg

EXPORT EARNINGS 700,000,000 US$

VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP 2.6 %

Global Tea Production 2001Country Extent

kha

% Production

kt

%

China 1,141 44 695 23

India 509 19 854 28

Sri Lanka 189 7 295 10

Kenya 132 5 294 10

Indonesia 161 6 169 6

Other 487 19 705 23

Total 2,619 100 3,012 100

COCONUT PLANTATIONSITEM QUANTITY Units

TOTAL EXTENT 439,000 ha

EXTENT AS A PC OF TOTAL LAND 6.75 %

REPLANTING 714 ha

NEW PLANTING 834 ha

TOTAL NUT PRODUCTION 3,055 million

DESSICATED COCONUT 89,000 tonnes

COCONUT OIL 44,000 tonnes

COPRA 14,500 tonnes

FRESH NUTS EXPORTED 29 million

DOMESTIC NUT CONSUMPTION 1,832 million

COST OF PRODUCTION 3.27 Rs/nut

EXPORT EARNINGS 121,000,000 US$

VALUE ADDED AS A PC OF GDP 2.2 %

Global Coconut Production 2001Country Extent kha % Production

M.nuts%

Indonesia 3,691 31 15,160 27

Philippines 3,120 26 13,208 24

India 1,840 16 12,597 23

Sri Lanka 442 4 2,279 4

Thailand 326 3 1,117 2

Vietnam 165 1 936 2

Malaysia 226 2 563 1

Others 2,035 17 9,977 17

Total 11,845 100 55,837 100

Factors affecting crops

According to previous climatological studies;RainfallTemperatureEvapo-transpirationRelative HumiditySolar Radiation

are identified as the major climate variables that influence the yield when other external factors (fertility, management, pest & diseases) are non-limiting

OBJECTIVES

Project the climate change scenarios in the coconut and tea growing areas based on the global circulation model results down-scaled to Sri Lanka. 

Assess the impacts of climate change on productivity of tea and coconut and socio economic status of the people within the plantation sector.

Identify adaptation options and assess their feasibility of implementation

OBJECTIVES contd.

Build capacity of natural and social scientists engaged in plantation research for undertaking assessment studies incorporating impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.

  Train scientists to prepare proposals for seeking funds

in meeting costs of adaptation to adverse effects of climate change as provided in Article 4 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 1992).

 

Downscaling of future climate scenarios for Sri Lanka

Need for Downscaling

Since Sri Lanka is an Island

Resolution power of the grid points of the GCMs are not sufficient enough

High diversity of altitude from sea level within short distance

Downscaling Tools

GCM Based Statistical Downscaling is used

SimCLIM Software - developed by IGCI, University of Waikato, New Zealand

Baseline Climatology

ANUSPLIN Software – developed by Australian National University (ANU) is used to spatially interpolate the rainfall and temperature fields with terrain effect

1961-1990 Baseline average Rainfall in January

1961-1990 Baseline average Rainfall in June

1961-1990 Baseline average Mean Temperature in January

1961-1990 Baseline average Mean Temperature in June

General Circulation Model

HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)

Rainfall Scenarios under

A2 Storyline

GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)

January Rainfall in 2025

Under A2 Storyline

June Rainfall in 2025

Under A2 Storyline

June Rainfall in 2050 Under A2 Storyline

January Rainfall in 2050 Under A2 Storyline

Rainfall Scenarios under

B1 Storyline

GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)

June Rainfall in 2025 Under B1 Storyline

January Rainfall in 2025 Under B1 Storyline

June Rainfall in 2050 Under B1 Storyline

January Rainfall in 2050 Under B1 Storyline

Mean Temperature Scenarios

under A2 Storyline

GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)

June Mean Temperature in 2025 Under A2 storyline

January Mean Temperature in 2025 Under A2 storyline

June Mean Temperature in 2050Under A2 storyline

January Mean Temperature in 2050Under A2 storyline

Mean Temperature Scenarios

under B1 Storyline

GCM - HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Model)

June Mean Temperature in 2025Under B1 storyline

January Mean Temperature in 2025Under B1 storyline

June Mean Temperature in 2050Under B1 storyline

January Mean Temperature in 2050Under B1 storyline

Conclusions It is revealed that:

January (Northeast monsoon) rainfall is projected to decline in both A2 and B1 scenarios with higher gradient in A2.

June (Southwest monsoon) rainfall is projected to increase in both A2 and B1 scenarios with higher gradient in A2

Mean Temperatures are projected to increase in both scenarios

Conclusions contd..

(From the Preliminary results) In coconut sector,

the model predicted that the crop in the intermediate wet zone is less vulnerable to climate change than elsewhere.

In tea sector, Under the B1 scenario, model predicted that

tea yield at low elevations is adversely affected while at high elevation, it is favored by climatic change.

However, under the A2 scenario, model predicted higher yields for both low and high elevation.

Acknowledgement

AIACC Project of Sri Lanka (AS – 12)

Thank you !!!

Let’s get together to control Global Warming