Impact of Climate Change

on M alaysia

Ir. Hj. Ahmad Jamalluddin b. Shaaban Director General

National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment

22 OCT 2013

Outline

•Climate Change in Malaysia

•Impacts • Water Quantity and Quality

• Sea Level Rise

•Adaptation

•Way Forward

Climate Change in Malaysia

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Source: www.emdat.be/result-country-profile

Extreme rainfall events

CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAYSIA

Top Natural Disasters in Malaysia for the period 1900 to 2012

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Temperature: Increase in mean surface temperature: 0.6°C to 1.2°C , 1969-

2009 (MMD)

Rainfall Increased rainfall intensity -> 1-hour rainfall intensity (2000-

2007) increase by 17% compared to 1970s values (NAHRIM)

“Above average” rainfall In 2007: Massive floods in Batu Pahat, Johor Baru, Kluang,

Kota Tinggi, Mersing, Muar, and Segamat ->Typhoon Utor Flood losses ~ RM 1.5 billion

Sea Level Rise 4.6 cm to 11.9 cm, satellite altimetry data (1993-2010)

Observed Climatic Change

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Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia (2006)

Study of the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrologic Regime and Water Resources of Sabah and Sarawak (2010)

The Study of The Impact Of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise in Malaysia (2010)

Climate Change related Research

in Malaysia

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2006: A regional hydrologic-

atmospheric model of Peninsular Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM) was developed

Downscaling global climate change simulation data (Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 410km), to Peninsular Malaysia (West Malaysia) at fine spatial resolution (~9km) – for future period of 2025 to 2050 (2025-2034 & 2041-2050)

The grid layout for the outer domain (1st Domain, 26x28 grids, 81 km

resolution) of the RegHCM-PM

27km x 27km 9km x 9km

Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime & Water Resources of Peninsular Malaysia

8

NAHRIM Regional Scale Model Configuration

Global Scale

Atmospheric

&

Ocean

Data CGCM, NCEP

Topography

&

Landcover

(USGS) Soil (FAO)

Boundary

Conditions

Initial

Fields

MM5

Model

Outer Domain

Boundary

Conditions

Initial

Fields

MM5

Model

2nd

Domain

Boundary

Conditions

Initial

Fields

MM5

Model

Inner

Domain

Watershed Scale

Hydro-climate

Output

IRSHAM

Model

Domain

Topography,

Landcover

&

Soil

(NAHRIM)

Model

Nesting

CGCM1 MESOSCALE MODEL (MM5)

Regional HCM-PM/SS

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Average Annual TEMP

Max: +1.4oC KLANG (5.3%)

Min: +1.21oC N/EAST COAST (4.6%)

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future Temperature

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Average Annual RAIN

Max: +264mm N/EAST COAST

(8.5%)

Min: -110mm SELANGOR (-4.9%)

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future Annual Rainfall

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SG. KELANTAN

SG. DUNGUN -KEMAMAN

SG. JOHOR-MERSING

1-day Maximum Precipitation (mm)

1-day maximum precipitation map

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Mean Monthly Flow

Max: +12% [KEL]

Min: - 8% KLANG

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-PM Simulated Future River Flow

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2010: A regional hydrologic-atmospheric model of east Malaysia called as ‘Regional Hydro-climate Model of Sabah and Sarawak (RegHCM-SS) was developed

Downscaling global climate change simulation data (ECHAM5 GCM and MRI GCM2.3.2 at control run simulation and future climate simulation data) that are at very coarse resolution (~ 208/310km), to Sabah & Sarawak (East Malaysia) at fine spatial resolution (~9km) – for future period of 2010 to 2100

The grid layout for the outer domain (1st Domain, 26x28

grids, 81 km resolution) of the RegHCM-SS

27km x 27km 9km x 9km

Research on the Impacts of Climate Change on Hydrologic Regime & Water Resources of Sabah and Sarawak

14

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS Projected Temperature

SABAH 2040 - 2050 2090 - 2100

Min . 1 . 36 o C 2 . 31 o C Mean 1 . 51 o C 3 . 27 o C Max . 2 . 22 o C 4 . 01 o C

SARAWAK 2040 - 2050 2090 - 2100

c 2 . 03 o C C 3 . 10 o C

Min . 1 . 08 o

Mean 1 . 23 o

Max . 1 . 61 o C 3 . 24 o C

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Tuaran: Substantial

increase of monthly Min.

& Mean Rainfall in

2090-2100 (19.7%)

SCS Coast: Highest projected

monthly Max. rainfall

increases of 46.4% (2040-

2050) to 58.1% (2090-2100)

Limbang: Highest

projected Monthly Max.

rainfall increases of

51.77% (2040-2050) to

99% (2090-2100)

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS Projected Rainfall

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1-day maximum precipitation map

SCS COAST

TUARAN

SOUTHERN SARAWAK

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SARAWAK R . ( FLOODS ) 2040 - 2050 2090 - 2100

Low Flow ( m 3

/ s ) 2 . 91 /( 4 . 05 ) 6 . 16 /( 4 . 05 ) High Flow ( m

3 / s ) 89 . 42 /( 98 . 42 ) 133 . 91 /( 98 . 42 )

NAHRIM’s RegHCM-SS Projected Flow

KEDAMAIAN ( WATER SUPPLY & FLOODS ) 2040 - 2050 2090 - 2100

Low Flow ( m 3

/ s ) 1 . 75 /( 3 . 40 ) 3 . 18 /( 3 . 40 ) High Flow ( m

3 / s ) 218 . 9 /( 100 . 8 ) 148 . 4 /( 100 . 80 )

FLOODS

WATER SUPPLY PROBLEM

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PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE IN MALAYSIA

Climate Parameter

Peninsular Malaysia [RegHCM-PM]

Sabah [RegHCM-SS]

Sarawak [RegHCM-SS]

Annual mean surface temp.

1.0-1.5oC [2050]

[2050] 1.3-1.7oC [2100]

2.9–3.5oC

[2050] 1.0-1.5oC [2100]

3.0-3.3oC

Max. Monthly Rainfall

[2050] +113mm(12%)

[2050] +59mm (5.1%)

[2100] +111mm (9%)

[2050] +150mm (8%)

[2100] +282mm (32% )

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NAHRIM’s study (2010) : “The Study of the Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise on Malaysia Coastlines” Projections of SLR for 21st century (2010 to 2100) Data: tide gauge data (25 years); satellite altimetry data (17

years); and GCM Projections.

Linear Trend Analysis.

Assimilation of mean projection of SLR with: 49 simulations of 7 AOGCM models

at satellite altimetry locations along Malaysian coastlines

SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR) STUDY FOR MALAYSIA

SLR Projection for 2100

National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)

0.373 – Projections of SLR at 2100 (in meter)

Satellite altimetry locations

NAHRIM SLR Study (2010)

National Hydraulics Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)

Malaysia Global

Tide gauge 0.2 – 4.4 (1984-2010) 1.2 – 2.2 *

Satellite Altimetry 2.73 – 7.0 (1993-2010) 3.2**

Sea Level Rise

Note

Projection 2100 (Peninsular Malaysia)

0.25m – 0.52m (2.5– 5.2 mm/yr)

Maximum SLR – Northeast and West coast of Peninsular Malaysia (Kelantan & Kedah)

Projection 2100 (Sabah & Sarawak)

0.43m – 1.06m (4.3 – 10.6 mm/yr)

1. Maximum SLR– North & East coast of Sabah.

2. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in Southwest coast of Sarawak (Meradong, located between Batang Igan & Batang Rajang).

3. Inundation at low lying area and rivermouth/estuaries in East coast of Sabah (Tawau, Semporna, Lahad Datu, Sandakan & Kudat).

Projection on Sea Level Rise at 2100 for Malaysia

Observed SLR Rates (mm/year)

•IPCC (AR4, 2007) **IPCC (AR5, 2013)

NAHRIM SLR Study (2010)

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Climate Change Impacts on

• Water Quantity

• Water Quality

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Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) • Increase in severity of floods • Increase in soil erosion -> scouring of drainage

structures and sedimentation in rivers Water shortage (drought) • Reduced inflows to reservoirs • Reduced stream-flows -> affect raw water

abstraction • Reduced recharge of groundwater

A. Change in Water Quantity/Discharge

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Flooding condition in Johor River during January 2007

Condition before and after floods on Kota Tinggi Bridge in January 2007

Water excesses

Source: San, LY 2011

Flooding in Kajang (2 Dec 2011)

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17 Oct 2012

Water shortages

8 Oct 2012

Selangor Times 12 Oct 2012

Photo: SAMB

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12 Oct 2012

12 Oct 2012

B. Change in Water Quality

Water excess (extreme rainfall, flows) • Increase in pollution:

litters, nutrients and sediments

Water shortage (drought) • Concentrated pollutant

level in streams

river flow and groundwater recharge will decrease,

water quality decrease due to less dilution of

pollutants,

Higher concentration of pollutants in the water bodies

Impacts of Water Shortage on Water Quality

1. Increased water colour due to increased input of humic substances as

dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from the catchment.

2. Increased nutrients. Increased mineralisation and releases of nitrogen,

phosphorus and carbon from soil organic matter and increased run-off

and erosion will result in increased nutrient loads.

3. Reduced oxygen content. Increased biological respiration rates result

in lower dissolved oxygen concentrations, particularly during low-flow

periods and in the bottom layers of lakes. Higher temperature and

lower oxygen concentrations will cause stress and may reduce the

habitats in the lakes and rivers.

Impacts of Excessive Flowing Water on

Water Quality

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macrophyte bloom algal bloom

Nutrient Concentration and Pollutant Loading

High temperature, Intense rainfall

Increase surface and sediment runoff

Tasik Metropolitan 2012 Tasik Chini 2012

Impact on Water Quality

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• Desk-study in 2005, more than 60% of 90 lakes are experiencing eutrophication i.e. Sembrong Reservoir, Aman Lake, Chini Lake etc

National study on lake eutrophication

Sembrong reservoir, 2012 Chini Lake, 2005

Kenyir Lake, 2012

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Impact on Coastal Resources

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• Increase in erosion and sedimentation • Increase in inundations -> displacement of

population • Affects infrastructure along coastal areas such

as bridges, revetments, groins, breakwater and jetty

• Salt water intrusion -> affect surface & groundwater

• Shifting of ecosystem (i.e mangrove, marine habitat) towards hinterland

Case Study

Sandakan Town

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Study Area : Sandakan Town

Pulau Duyong

Sandakan Town

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Findings on Hydraulic Analysis

• Increases in sea surface elevations along the waterfront;

• These will also increase the wave heights and current speeds along the shoreline;

• Pulau Duyong might experience a significant impact

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Residual Projected Wave Height: Risk Maps

Residual 2020 Residual 2040

Residual 2060

• Exposed northern part of Pulau Duyong will have higher wave height, while southern sheltered part of Pulau Duyong will experience lesser wave height

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Projected Current Speed : Risk Maps

• Changes of maximum current speed caused by tidal fluctuations in year 2020, 2040 and 2060

Baseline Projected 2020

Projected 2040

Projected 2060

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Loading Jetty

Platform Elevation

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Land Losses In Vegetation Areas

The Way Forward

• Continued R&D on hydroclimate projection, vulnerability assessment and innovative adaptation measures

• Mainstreaming climate change adaptation options into planning and development

• Public awareness on climate change impacts

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Thank You for

Your Attention