STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER AVAILABILITY INOEBOBO LILIBA WATERSHED KUPANG CITY, WITH RCP 2.6 AND RCP 8.5 SCENARIOS

WILLEM SIDHARNO

BALAI WILAYAH SUNGAI NUSA TENGGARA 2, KUPANG-EAST NUSA TENGGARA

Overview

Climate Change

Water Availability in Kupang City

RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5 Scenario Climate Change Impact on Water Availability in Kupang City

Conclusion

Research Area

Explanation about literaturestudy

Climate parameters such as temperature and precipitation is expected to change in the future and could significantly affect the water resources available (Anil, et al., 2012)

The results have shown that long-term annual runoff volume on average decreased by using the A2 emissions scenario (Parrisa Sadat et al., 2013)

The scenario used in this study is the scenario RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 are taken from the AR5 (fifth Assessment Report, 2015) issued by the IPCC. Each of these scenarios has a change of Representative Concentration Pathways, emphasis and socioeconomic scenarios different.

Climate Change

Scenario 2046-2065 2081-2100

Temperature (°C) Temperature (°C)

RCP 2.6 0,86 2,25

RCP 8.5 0,83 2,13Source : (IPCC, 2014)

2081-21002046-2065

Scenarios Model

Water Availability in Kupang City

The more the temperature rises then evapotranspiration ride. While the rainfall showed that promote increased rainfall runoff and discharge the year higher but the general impact of climate change did not affect the availability of water in Kupang city (Sidharno, et al., 2013)

RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5 Scenario Climate Change Impact on Water Availability in Kupang City

Source : (IPCC, 2014)

RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5 Scenario Climate Change Impact on Water Availability in Kupang City

Source : Analisys Result, 2016

RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5 Scenario Climate Change Impact on Water Availability in Kupang City

Source : Analisys Result, 2016

RCP 2.6 & RCP 8.5 Scenario Climate Change Impact on Water Availability in Kupang City

Source : Analisys Result, 2016

Conclusion

From the analysis, can be in the know that the effects of temperature changes by RCP 2.6 scenario of climate change affecting the increase evapotranspiration. The more the temperature rises, the increase in evapotranspiration, which affects the decrease in rainfall runoff / discharge in January-October amounted to (6.46%) on the epidemic scenario 2046-2065dan a decrease of (2.46%) in the year 2081 to 2100 on the discharge observation by a reduction debit the annual accumulated volume decreased from the observation volume amounted to 11.49% (30,651,062,886 MCM), while the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change affecting the volume decline in rainfall runoff / discharge in January-October is much lower, namely by (9.99%) on years 2046-2065 and by (5.67%) in the year 2081 to 2100 on the discharge observation, with accumulated decrease in annual volume amounted to 29.98% (24,246,949,458 MCM) the observation volume or lower volume than the volume of the RCP 2.6 scenario. little overall impact of climate change affect water availability in Kota Kupang for a short time between the years 2013-2017, but the estimates with climate change scenarios indicate that the change of discharge and discharge accumulation (volume storage) began to change at the start of the year 2018-2100.